transplantbillsfan

Oh I get it... you just wanted to try to beat everyone else to the punch. A little narcissistic, but fine. Regardless, your thread title is inaccurate so you might wanna change it. Right now we have a 34% chance of playing them in round 1.

If the Chiefs lose on Saturday I really just can't imagine the Bengals forfeiting the #2 seed and a guaranteed 2 home games in the playoffs. As far as I know the Bengals would have the tiebreaker over the Bills and Chiefs if we all ended 11-6

There are "pure luck" interceptions as well. Like when balls are tipped or when a WR decides to stop running a route. So should Allen's last 2 interceptions also be left out? Or if you want to include all fumbles, not just fumbles lost, shouldn't we also count all of those interceptions that were dropped by defenders? It's impossible to measure pure luck, so sticking with the actual turnovers themselves is what makes the most sense. Interceptions up. Fumbles lost down.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/billsstandings.html Right now the Bills have a 34% chance that they'll play the Patriots in round 1. That means there's a 66.% chance we will NOT play the Patriots. Anyone other than the Patriots is our most likely opponent at this moment. At this moment anywhere from the 2-7 seed is possible for us.

This thread is a week early. There is a better chance Buffalo draws the field (any other team) over NE.

I'll just point out that there are even respectable analysts who know the game of football firsthand who don't think Allen played poorly against Atlanta as @JoPoy88 and others do: https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/jim-kubiak-why-bills-qb-josh-allens-stats-are-misleading-in-victory-against-falcons/article_c6731e04-6cf3-11ec-86d7-7334f7b742c1.amp.html A look at Josh Allen’s statistics from Sunday’s victory against the Atlanta Falcons would suggest he played poorly, but the film review indicates this was not the case. Allen completed just 11 of 26 attempts (42.3% completion percentage) while throwing three interceptions and no touchdowns. Yet, his overall performance grade of 92.15% demonstrated that he protected the football with smart decisions despite his three interceptions and fell victim to circumstance on five plays that were out of his control. ... Here, Allen was anticipating that Beasley would release past a second-level defender into the seam. The Bills were running seams by the inside receivers and hitches by the outside receivers. It appeared the Falcons had rotated into a 3-deep zone coverage and Beasley was going to be open in the seam following his release. That was what Allen was hoping for, but Beasley seemed to pull up and stop running his route. Unfortunately for Allen, he had already released the football. Here, Allen was anticipating that Beasley would release past a second-level defender into the seam. The Bills were running seams by the inside receivers and hitches by the outside receivers. It appeared the Falcons had rotated into a 3-deep zone coverage and Beasley was going to be open in the seam following his release. That was what Allen was hoping for, but Beasley seemed to pull up and stop running his route. Unfortunately for Allen, he had already released the football. ... The Bills rushed the football for 233 yards and dominated the time of possession an astounding 36:07 to 23:53 for the Falcons. It was a great game plan by Daboll to utilize Allen with quarterback crack sweeps and quarterback counter concepts. ... This was also a great example of how a quarterback’s statistics can be misleading. Allen really made only one poor decision in the game, his first interception. Beyond that, he was smart with the football. His performance grade of 92.15% is an "A" in a playoff-clinching moment, even if his quarterback rating of 17.0 was the worst mark in his career. The video review revealed a tough and gritty performance from a franchise quarterback who values winning above all else, because in the end that is all that matters.

Allen has a lower passer rating this year largely because he's had his most prolific and effective rushing season and rushing stats aren't a Passer Rating stat. Allen has the 15th best Passer Rating in the NFL right now. That's just plain stupid if you're using that to rank QBs in terms of play this year. I might be a Homer, but there's not a rational intelligent football fan in the world who would say 14 QBs have been better than him this year. ESPN Qbr at least takes running into consideration. Josh has a Qbr of 61.1 this year and is the 6th best QB in that metric. That's more reasonable and the QBs ahead of him I could see arguments for, at least. I can't find the exact Qbr against the Falcons, but I doubt it's the lowest of his career.

I've read them, but I think I mixed you up with a couple other posters in the @JoPoy88 angry poster realm. I apologize.

I started a thread about this back in 2019 Yes I realize we've lost both of our road playoff games, but the point even back in 2019 was that you could just see that Allen generally plays better on the road for some reason. Back in 2019 alone in examining road vs home: Allen at home: 54.9% completion percentage, 5.9 YPA, 9 TDs, 5 INTs, 76.9 Passer Rating Allen on the road: 62.1% completion percentage, 7.4 YPA, 11 TDs, 4 INTs, 92.6 Passer Rating Josh Allen vs top 10 defenses at home: 46.2% completion percentage, 4.5 YPA, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 0 4th Quarter comebacks, 56.8 Passer Rating Josh Allen vs top 10 defenses on the road: 61.6% completion percentage, 7.4 YPA, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 24th quarter comebacks, 88 Passer Rating 4-4 at home 6-2 on the road More 4th quarter comebacks on the road than at home. 2 primetime games both on the road. Both wins with Allen showing up on the big stage. We can only speculate, but I think Allen just thrives off adversity. He loves when everyone is against him (road) and is still trying to get used to everyone being behind him (home). I think he'll get used to it, though. He was better at home in college by a lot. Bigger stage in the NFL by a ton, obviously. This year it's pretty clear weather's really played a role.

Ummm... no it wasn't. This is a really stupid post. You were doing so well ignoring me for so long... guess the childish and petty half of you has to inevitably force it's way out. I think we could have a legitimate conversation about this one if you wanted to not turn it personal as you like to. I think if the vote were to be held today, I could see Burrow getting more votes than Allen. I don't think it's as much of a slam dunk as you do, but yeah I could see that in terms of recency bias. I've said multiple times since Sunday's game (including in the changed title of the thread) that I no longer think Allen really has a shot at league MVP, though I think he'll get some votes. Do you personally believe that Burrow deserves the MVP more than Allen, though?

Duh.... obviously this is a yes. And I could see it happening... though I don't think it will. Would I take Josh winning us 2 Super Bowls with his legs but having to retire in 12 years? Yes... absolutely! Wouldn't any Bills fan?

Yes I think it's the most fair thing to do by the NFL, actually. And I don't really think they could justify not doing that. Put the 4-5 matchup on Monday Night. It rewards the "higher" seeded division winners (or the teams that beat them) with more rest. I hope Buffalo moves up from the 4 seed so we don't have to worry about that, though. For me, any of the timeslots other than the early Sunday window, simply because 1 PM EST is 8 AM Hawaiian time.

500+ yards against essentially a street squad in the Ravens who were missing half their roster. It was an impressive asterisk game by Burrow. Yep, Burrow played great on the road in KC, beating the #1 seed. So did Allen, who had 377 yards, 4 TDS and 0 turnovers in a National Primetime game and trounced them. No, Allen didn't go over 400 yards like Burrow, but he didn't have to because our game was wrapped up in the 4th quarter so that on our last drive when we got the ball with 3:27 left in the game Allen handed the ball off to Zach Moss 5 times and kneeled 3 times. And Allen can wrap up our division this weekend. So again I ask... how in the world could you consider Burrow for the MVP discussion, but not Allen?

"Goes off." You do realize Allen sits alone as having the 2nd most TDs in the NFL right now, right? What if both Josh Allen and Joe Burrow accumulate 400 total yards and 4 TDs and 0 Turnovers next game. How is Burrow (40 TDs, 4568 yards, 16 turnovers) a guy who could win it at that point while Allen (44 TDs, 5268 yards, 18 turnovers) could not? That would mean in their last 5 respective games they'd have both gone 4-1 and had 15 TDs for their respective teams, both division winners. Does it then become about yards? But on the year Allen has 700 more yards than Burrow and is 80% of Buffalo’s offense whereas Burrow is 76.6% of his. Turnovers? Okay 2 more on the year. But Allen has the ball in his hands more as just mentioned. All of this is to say... aren't you one of the guys now saying Allen has no shot for MVP at this point? If that's true how the hell does Burrow have a shot?

One other thing left out is that Allen lost only 3 fumbles this year compared with 6 last year.

Don't let @JoPoy88 see this post, he might get angry

Which part of what I said was incorrect? That 1st Interception was on Allen. Period. What did you see for the other 2? I saw at least 4 blatant drops, including a TD. Did you not see those? It was a cold snowy day and it showed in our passing game, so Allen took over with his legs and played really well given these circumstances. As I already stated in the changed title of the OP and in the post you quote Allen’s not winning league MVP, but we don't care. You seem incredibly unhappy for the fan of a team that just convincingly won an NFL game by 2 scores. Do you even like the team?

Here's what Josh said as part of this clip below: "I feel like the kid who got an A today and did nothing on the group project." Honestly today I thought Allen still played really well outside that 1st Interception. I don't think the other 2 were his fault as 1 ball was tipped and Beasley got knocked off his route on the other. Lots of dropped passes today including at least 1 TD uncharacteristically by Diggs. I don't think any of us really care much about this if he can perform in the postseason and get us a Lombardi. That's pretty much been my point of keeping this thread alive. Our Super Bowl hopes still lay on the shoulders of Josh Allen. But it's a darn good thing we're trying to at least lift some of that weight with the threat of a running game.

Why on Earth wouldn't you count QB rushing stats in today's NFL?

Well let's at least do that for our top 3 QBs in the MVP race in terms of percentage of total offense. Since Rodgers missed a game I subtracted the Chiefs game. Rodgers: 74.7% of total offense Brady: 77.4% of total offense Allen: 81.6% of total offense Again, those numbers have been adjusted for Rodgers's missed game. In terms of the unadjusted Packers offense on the season, he accounts for 70.5% of their total yards.