transplantbillsfan

Mods, feel free to merge this with another thread if you want, but this stat isn't something you can just find. You need to go to the ESPN splits for every single QB in the NFL to find this particular stat... so I figured it deserved some discussion, since it has been a point of criticism for Taylor in 2015 and 2016. Tyrod Taylor has the 3rd highest passer rating in the NFL when trailing the opponent. #1- Alex Smith at 136.2 #2- Russell Wilson at 115.7 #3- Tyrod Taylor at 114.2 That's significantly better than 2015 (95.6) or 2016 (92.5) and I think it's something to put your finger on in terms of an area of improvement. He's also 8/19 (42.1%) with 1 TD on 3rd downs when trailing. Look, he's doing what he's asked to do when he's asked to do it and he's doing it at a pretty high level. The Bills have actually been ahead the majority of the time this year, and on the year, when the Bills have been either trailing or tied with the opposition, Taylor has thrown 74% of his passes (at a 69% completion %) for 77% of his yards and 80% of his TDs. He's also been a more efficient runner when trailing or tied. He's gained 75 yards at 5.8 YPC, as opposed to the 43 yards at 2.4 YPC when the team has been ahead.

But he's not being asked to score more. In fact, he really isn't even passing the ball very much at all when the team is ahead. I guess that's my only question if you're using the word "rankings," I feel like it should consider how the QBs perform when they are called upon. Again, that's all just my opinion. The Bills have actually been ahead the majority of the time this year, and on the year, when the Bills have been either trailing or tied with the opposition, Taylor has thrown 74% of his passes (at a 69% completion %) for 77% of his yards and 80% of his TDs. When the team has been behind, he has a 114.2 Passer Rating, which is 3rd best in the NFL. So, when called upon, he's performed.

Being a QB. Yes. It's my opinion. Great work. Don't mean to imply this isn't really interesting. I just think Taylor is pretty obviously better than the 23rd best QB in the NFL right now.

So if you're truly going to call this a "QB ranking" don't you think you should factor in teams and defenses played and find a way to put that in the formula similarly to how footballoutsiders does with DYAR and DVOA?

Would you mind explaining the columns you have there? That last column to the right, what formula do you use to come up with that? Are you saying that you think Taylor has had the 23rd best start to 2017? This sure seems to put a lot more weight in volume than efficiency if that's the case. I think you've at least got a put them in the top 15.

That's because to me Taylor isn't a transcendent talent, but with the right offense of system, coaching and playcalling I think he can be really good. Like top 10 good. When I wanted him gone last year after the Pittsburgh game it was largely because I thought our coaching staff wouldn't be fired at the end of the year. Quarterbacks improve with playing time and experience, but that doesn't mean they're going to become different QBs than they were in the beginning. Taylor has demonstrated the ability to be a competent starting QB in the NFL since he first took the field in 2015. He still might not be our starter next year, but he's going to be starting somewhere in the NFL. So no, despite you trying to be tricky here, I've never been one of those anTy guys who shouts things like "he's no better than a back up QB" or "he's just in our being playing QB," but I'm also not the homer who thinks he's going to become the next Drew Brees have painted me to be.

Well said Brother

My bad... can I keep the kids at my back so I can grab your ass? Yeah. Opinions certainly are fun. Especially when they're based on the truth.

Ummm.. actually I think that's absolutely the truth. Taylor's looking to pass all the way up until he passes the LOS almost always. You can tell pretty easily because you can see him looking downfield for WRs to pass to even after he's felt (what I absolutely acknowledge is sometimes phantom) pressure. It's how the Clay bomb happened. It's how the 22 yard pass on 3rd and 21 against the Seahawks last year happened. It's how the Greg Salas TD vs the Jets last year happened. Those are just off the top of my head. So yeah, I think that's pretty much truth right there if you actually follow what I said.

Still can't believe this thread.

No. "Taylor, at the first sign of pressure, looks to run. What a buncha crap." That's exactly what I said. Now, I followed that up with: "I'll admit that in a collapsing pocket it looks like sometimes Taylor looks like he'll occasionally feel the phantom pressure and escape, but part of me also wonders if he's just trying to move around in order to see WRs better." I don't know if you're equating "escaping" with "running," but considering the very last thing I say there I don't know why you'd do that.

Shady, you gotta admit you're pretty much a closet anTy guy, at the very least. You say weird hyperbolic things that aren't true like the team has a 3rd down % of 30% and bring up the record of an entire football team regarding Taylor passing 30+ times and you've said that this team needs to get to (what was it again...?) 10-2 or something like that for you to start believing in Taylor. I've said all along and I'll say it again, I don't think Taylor is going to be all that much different a QB than he was the last couple years. But I've also thought the QB the last couple years was pretty good. I saw things I wanted him to improve a bit on (throwing guys open/going through progressions/3rd down conversions) and so far he looks like he's doing better with those things, but not like monumentally better. I think the hard part of this conversation is that there are many who cling steadfastly to a traditional pocket passer. Taylor will never ever be that. But what Taylor seems to be growing into in the right system (and Dennison's looks like the right system right now) can be a very good QB, probably sporadically a top 10 guy. And with this defense, that's enough to do some very serious damage in terms of making the playoffs and even in the playoffs. Some have said such concrete things against Taylor that I suspect if he continues to play as he's played so far or even better, those posters will disappear and we'll find them hiding under new usernames. There are 1 or 2 in particular I haven't seen make a single comment since the Denver game. And hardly a peep the week after the Jets game. He just popped in after the Carolina game to make a few (negative, obviously) comments. Gee, I wonder why. Some posters thrive off misery. Probably why they've enjoyed the last 17 years trolling Bills message boards.

Ummm, in this analogy, I assume Taylor is the Hyundai Accent and that the times you need him to do something are when the team is behind, right? The Bills have actually been ahead the majority of the time this year, and on the year, when the Bills have been either trailing or tied with the opposition, Taylor has thrown 74% of his passes (at a 69% completion %) for 77% of his yards and 80% of his TDs. Looks like he works okay when you need him to do something

Take my whole comment in context. I just said he can leave the pocket early at times, but he's a pass-first QB even when he's left the pocket.

Ya know the thing that's kind of annoying? The thing he does in that 2nd throw is something that he's actually done pretty consistently as a passer. Taylor has no fear standing there knowing he's about to take a hit while delivering a beautiful pass. A lot of people on here and previously at BBMB have professed that Taylor, at the first sign of pressure, looks to run. What a buncha crap. That pass is a great example. The long pass to Clay (the WR) last week is another. Off the top of my head in the 1st Miami game last year Taylor threw a gorgeous TD bomb to Goodwin right before he got throttled by a free running Dolphin defender. I'll admit that in a collapsing pocket it looks like sometimes Taylor looks like he'll occasionally feel the phantom pressure and escape, but part of me also wonders if he's just trying to move around in order to see WRs better. But one thing's for sure, dude's not afraid to take a hit.

Do you really not get it? McDermott only wants Taylor to pass the football when the team is behind or tied. He's all about managing the clock and controlling the football and trusting his defense once the team gets the lead. I don't love it myself, but I get it. I think it's an easy concept to understand. The Bills have actually been tied or ahead the majority of the time this year, and on the year, when the Bills have been either trailing or tied with the opposition, Taylor has thrown 74% of his passes (at a 69% completion %) for 77% of his yards and 80% of his TDs. If you have a problem, it's with that particular philosophy. It's not on Taylor. When called upon, Taylor seems to be rising to the occasion in 2017.

Nah, Ryan's just overrated. I actually thought all the talk last year about Ryan suddenly becoming an Elite QB was kinda ridiculous. That was the perfect example of a QB benefitting from an incredible OC. I said in the offseason I expected Ryan to take a pretty serious step backwards. So far, so true.

Huh? Taylor has 5 TDs and one INT. Ryan has 5 TDs and 5 INTs. Or did you mean going into this game?

Are you being satirical? Good... glad you were being satirical

Interesting take. Without Taylor, how does Clay get the football? Particularly on that long bomb with Taylor on the run from a collapsed pocket chucking the ball 50 yards in the air while rolling to his right?

I think people need to start second-guessing this. It's like the general assumption is that if you have a great passing QB, any coach will automatically call a pass-centric offense. I just don't think that's true. Defensive coaches want to run the football to control the clock and they want to protect the football. It's a cliché because it's generally very true and I think that much became very clear when McDermott just decided to run run run once we got the lead. One, I suppose, could argue that he did it because he didn't trust his QB enough to move. For those saying it, the proof is in the choice itself. But I think if you watch the way Taylor is throwing the football while protecting it, you'd realize that's probably not the case, or at least certainly not most of the case. Taylor has been making some really big-time throws this year and seems quite capable of moving the football through the air. I really think saying he's one of the 5 best QBs so far in 2017 is a little far out there simply because of the amount other QBs are throwing the football. But I do think Taylor is really pretty relevant and critical to McDermott and all these wins and saying Taylor is a top 10 QB in 2017 so far is quite reasonable.

We had hot starts in 2008 and 2011, so I'm hindsight might be 20/20, but this just feels different. McDermott is that difference... and it's huge! There are things that still frustrate me a bit. Every time Shady breaks a long run since the Jets game, the play gets called back for holding. I wonder if the long run is really because of the hold or if it's just a stroke of bad luck? I seriously get very frustrated by the extremely conservative offensive playcalling once we get the lead. And that's not me saying they should just have Taylor sling it all over the field just because. It's more that I think Buffalo changes its offensive identity once it gets the lead. I don't like that, even though I get it. I just think that as great as our defense has been, something's gonna give one of these weeks. I think we had opportunities to put the Falcons away, but we kept it close maybe unnecessarily. Hauschka!!!! I actually thought the right call on his last field goal was to punt it, but boy was I wrong! I hope Jones can get out of his head. Is the stage too big for him? Too bad because it's clear he can get open and that Taylor can and wants to get him the ball, but he's just not holding on. Get that boy some Stick-em!!! Our secondary is really, really good. Jerry Hughes is really, really good. Kyle is still really, really good!!! This is fun Completely agree with you here. I can't exactly fault McDermott because it's been working. I just don't think it's always going to work. Awesome if it does, though

But it's a big part of the equation because it determines how you approach the draft. If he sucks the rest of the year, it's easy to take a chance on a 1st round QB. But if Taylor keeps playing well and we make *gasp* the playoffs, the coaches are absolutely going to scrutinize the idea of drafting a QB in the 1st vs using all those draft picks we have to massively upgrade the team. So really Taylor's play absolutely will pretty seriously influence our decision to draft a QB in the 1st.

You really can't say this at this point. What if a QB McBeane values highly isn't on the board? I know this is what you've been arguing since the start of the season, but if the season progresses as it has so far, there's no chance we're in "draft a 1st round QB at any cost!" mode.

It was someone we likely won't hear from very much until we lose.