transplantbillsfan

Well, no one presented any convincing evidence. I was hoping for it, though. I'll still delude myself if we draft him, though

The comparison to Wentz, to me, is sad and desperate hope simply because of the similar offense they ran... while utterly neglecting production or success. Simple FACT that can't be overlooked: Allen is being drafted purely because of his physical potential and almost entirely in spite of his actual production on the field. Those guys have been historically overdrafted time and time again. And they're historically massive busts. I don't wish it on Allen, especially if we (mistakenly) draft him. It's just what he's most likely to become.

You should have just made the poll "yes" or "no," I voted 4-11, hope for 2, but definitely think we trade up.

Jackson. If Allen makes it to 12, it'd be a deserved freefall. This talk about him being the #1 pick is just nuts. At the same time, I desperately hope he's taken #1 so I don't have to stress about us picking him. If we draft Lamar Jackson, we can just call him LJ.

Have our picks for next year come out already? Last I checked, we don't know where we're picking next year. I highly doubt it's going to be a top 10 pick. Keep wallowing in mediocrity. Thankfully, I don't think Beane plans to.

We basically have the same team as last year, minus Preston Brown, Eric Wood & Richie Incognito. I expect Groy and Bodine to be able to fill in just fine in Wood's and Incognito's absence. We need an MLB... maybe that guy is on the roster, but that's the only other position than QB we absolutely should draft on day 1 or day 2. All of our other positions are either the same or upgraded. We need a Franchise QB. It's been over 20 years since we've had one. The "too many holes" crowd must just be really young... or they have really bad memories. Get the QB... period. We'll still be a better team in 2018 and we'll go into the 2019 season with tons of CAP space to fill holes.

This just feels obvious, to me. All of the things that have unfolded over the last year have been leading up to our 1st pick on Thursday. The plan just seems so overtly out there for all to see. Shaw's OP with doubts that we could get into the top 4 is something I'm really skeptical about, but it's possible we only trade up to 5 or 6... I still think we're trading up, almost inevitably. And yes, you need trade partners. But teams like the Colts and Giants, who might think they already have their QBs in place, are significantly more likely to be willing to deal picks, especially to a team like the Bills, who have 6 picks in the first 3 rounds. Peter Schrager on GMFB this morning proposed (seemingly based on what he's hearing) that the Bills would trade up to the #6 pick with the Colts by giving them 12, 22 and 56 and then get up to #2 by giving the Giants 2 and next year's 1st. I think we'll need to throw in another pick, at that point. But if we give the Giants the 6th, they'll still get Chubb, Nelson or Barkley... all considered arguably the best players in this draft and future Gold Jacket players, which the G-Men desperately want. Everything is in play...

True... but I'm personally hoping to see Streater/Dupri/Reilly make the team and make an impact because of huge strides. I think that's just a little too steep a price, but I won't hate it if they do it. I think #53, #65 and all 3 of our 1sts would be fair. If we need to add another pick, do #53, #65 and #95. Keep that other 2nd round pick. That gets a little expensive at that point. But if your QB is there that you absolutely want, do it.

Schrager said this morning that he basically makes his predictions based solely on having his ear to the ground and talking to league sources. Soon after he mentions that, he lays out a blueprint for Buffalo to trade up to #2 for Darnold. #12, #22 & #56 to the Colts THEN #6 & next year's 1st to the Giants. Personally, I think it'll take another pick, but looks like a solid blueprint. He then went on to talk about the relationship Beane already has with Ballard and Gettleman... making it almost sound like this is already in the works.

Yep

So, first of all, I strongly disagree that the Giants wouldn't be willing to trade down to 5 or 6, but might be willing to trade down to 4, as you insinuate in the OP. Chubb, Barkley or Nelson are guaranteed to be there at 5, probably 6. And all are positions of need for the Giants. And stockpiles of other picks could be viewed as very valuable if a GM trusts his scouting department. If I had to put money down on 5 spots we're drafting on Thursday with our 1st pick, #12 wouldn't even be my 1st or 2nd spot to put money on because I legitimately think staying at 12 is viewed as kinda a last resort for Beane. Not last resort like end of the world, but last resort like clearly not what he planned to do. If I could wager on 4 different spots we're drafting, it's 2, 4, 5 & 6. As I said before, I think there's a price for everything, and a Giants team that has a QB they might still perceive as a Franchise QB (look what Shermur pulled outta Case Keenum) ready to make at least one more SB run, a Browns team that's drafted it's Franchise QB at 1 and is ready to continue loading the team up, a Broncos team not so far removed from a SB and ready to go again with more competent QB play from a guy who came to life last year, or a Colts team clearly ready to wheel and deal are all teams that I think Beane is looking at and trying to find the right price. GMs are cocky, don't forget. They all think they know who the best players are and can get them later than everyone else... just look at the hoodie always stockpiling picks trading back. Beane can play on that and still get up and get "his guy." We can still get to 4 or 2.

See, I think a new coach and GM would see Manning as a puzzle piece, the most important one, filled and the need to fill other positions to supplement him. But who knows.

I don't understand how anyone would think a team with a 2 time Super Bowl mvp who's 37 in a league where the last few QBs retiring were 39 or 40 thinks that team is drafting a QB at 2, rather than a supplemental player.

Exactly how I feel, but swap Rosen and Mayfield and put Jackson up there with Rosen, assuming we draft him at 12

Why? Because 3 1sts just sounds sooOOooo unreasonable to let go of?

Shaw, you bring up price and willingness to part with picks several times in the OP. This thread is, in large part, pretty clearly about cost. Everyone has a price. I suspect that, as you say, our only route to #2 is a 3 way trade getting up to #4-#6 (I disagree with the notion the Giants won't go below 4, but agree they won't freefall to 12), and I'm sure Beane is on the phone with everyone from #2-#10 trying to work out a deal or multiple deals. Yeah, it might not get done. But part of what you are talking about here is cost, and you don't even seem to realize it. Personally, I like Rudolph, but I don't think we're targeting him. Mid to late 1st round QB from Oklahoma State as the 4th-5th QB drafted in the 1st round of a strong QB draft sounds too much like Brandon Weeden 2.0. Lamar Jackson at #12, please.

It could, because it's possible we won't have a trade partner or the price will be too high. But the problem with the perspective of some is that both our 1sts this year and our 1st next year was probably nothing more than a starting point in the conversation to move up to 2. If the Giants had accepted only that and we were sitting at 2 now, everyone here should be dancing with joy. But instead Beane is likely weighing how much more he's willing to part with. But I'm prepared to stay at 12 if we get Jackson as a consolation prize.

Shaw, I think you're looking at "3 1st round picks!!!" too superficially. Where those picks are, what they're valued at, and most importantly, Beane's intentions and goals are what matters. I've been assuming from the moment we acquired an extra 1st round pick last year in the draft that McDermott wanted to wait 1 year to pursue getting a Franchise QB since Whaley, not Beane was still our GM and, therefore, in charge of college scouting for the 2017 QBs. And then when Beane got here, he kept compiling picks... shrewdly getting them for players McDermott and Beane inherited and didn't really want. Our #12 pick was the result of swapping 1sts and trading away a player who may have played well for this team in years past but almost never saw the field (did he ever?) in 2017, our first playoff year in 17 years as a rookie filled in capably for the year and will only get better. One of our 2nd rounders was acquired trading away a talented but oft-injured WR who then wasn't even resigned by the same team who traded for him. And based on Sammy's new salary with KC, he wouldn't be with the Bills even if McDermott exercised his 5th year rookie option. One of our 3rd rounders... the 1st one in the 3rd round, was acquired by trading away a QB that there was absolutely no long term plan on and filled in his slot with a QB who is at least capable of competing for the starting QB job at less than 1/3rd the cost of the guy we just traded away. I say we take those 4 picks and trade them all to the Giants for the #2 pick to grab Rosen/Darnold/Mayfield (please GOD not Allen!!!) and Beane still has all of Buffalo's original picks with a pick in all the remaining rounds other than the 7th. We can and should still get a couple other good players in the 2nd and 3rd round even in doing that. According to the draft chart: #12 = 1200 points #22 = 780 points #53 = 370 points #65 = 265 points Grand total = 2615 points #2 pick = 2600 points So we're giving away picks Beane has been shrewdly acquiring, not picks we were already going to naturally possess. So the Bills maybe already offered next year's 1st and both our 1sts this year? A pick in the ensuing year is supposedly valued 1 round lower than the same pick this year. So, our 1st next year is actually valued as a 2nd rounder, not a 1st. Let's say our 2nd next year will be roughly the same as our 2nd this year... maybe make it a little more valuable at 400 points. Suddenly those "3 1st round picks!!!" are 2380 points to the Giants 2600 points and we need to throw in at least a 3rd rounder this year if not a 2nd. Who knows what really happens, but it's weird the way a lot of Bills fans are saying "the price is too steep to trade up!!!" Seems a bit disingenuous. When was the last time we had a Franchise QB? When we're we last a viable contender?

How much thinner in talent are we than last year, when we made the playoffs for the first time in 18 years? Yeah, we could obviously improve on talent, but our talent last year made the playoffs. Yes, we had some losses. Incognito is a loss, he's also a headache. Wood was a loss, but rumblings are that Groy will be an upgrade. Tolbert was an addition by subtraction. Thank God his reps can go to someone who can actually gain positive yardage as an RB, whether that's Cadet or whoever. TEs are the same. WRs will be better with a healthy Benjamin, Jones hopefully making big strides after his rookie yips, and young guys like Reilly, Streater and Dupree who I'm excited to see get a shot. Tackles are the same guys we had last year. DLs are better with Star in the mix. DEs are the same. We need an MLB. Biggest need next to QB. Still not nearly as important. CBs look about the same as last year, maybe better. Safeties, last time I checked, are still Hyde and Poyer. We're good there. Where are all these holes people are talking about that seem to be all over the place and sinking us into being one of the worst teams in the league? Right now, we look like virtually the same team as last year with 3 huge question marks: Franchise QB. Guard/Center MLB If you could choose to have the #1 or #2 player in this draft at only one of those positions but, at best, the 4th or 5th best player from the other 2, which position do you choose? Some of you act like we can't still get other good players if we traded up for a QB. Folks, we have 2 1sts, 2 2nds, 2 3rds, 1 4th, 1 5th, and 1 6th round pick. And if we traded away next year's 1st, we can counterbalance that with having tons of Cap space and a promising young Franchise QB, whether Darnold or Rosen or Mayfield (all 3 of whom we'll have to trade up for, anyway), to lure Free Agents in. We're fiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnneee

That was a joke? Failing basic math was a joke? Okay then Past tense? If you want to argue that, sure... But I'm not the one in here talking about him... or one of the folks who seemingly disappeared from the message board once Taylor was traded. But now it only cuts one way... have fun talking about the past, folks!

Yep. About right. 4 QBs in this draft warrant excitement: Mayfield, Darnold, Rosen, Jackson 1 QB in this draft warrants terror: Josh Allen I really hope the Browns take him at #1

I think our 1st pick is a QB because not drafting a guy Beane can legitimately sell as a Franchise QB in this draft will be viewed as extreme failure by almost everyone, and given all his efforts over the last year to pretty clearly jockey himself into position to get that guy, that view would be justified. So unless all these GMs are in cohoots and know one or two of these guys are falling to the bottom half of the 1st round and Beane knows that and ends up miraculously drafting Mayfield, Rosen or Jackson at 22, I think we’re pretty obviously drafting a QB at 12 or earlier. I’m assuming all of this because I view Beane as a competent to very good GM. That opinion changes if I’m wrong.

5 is not 5 times more wins than 0 wins. And I suck at math. I think next year will be entertaining because some of you clearly just haven't been able to let go. I wish Taylor well, but not at the expense of our team. If he sucks and the Browns suck next year, a couple of the posters in this thread will continue the obsession. No Taylor threads for me ever again. Dude's not my Quarterback anymore. If any of you are true Bills fans... move on.

Figured this would be the move the Giants would want most. The thing is, we gotta get all of it worked out and maybe completed before the draft, not during.

Ya know... I was just thinking today about where the hell a few posters on this board went since Tyrod left the building. Guess I should have figured they'd be here. I think everyone knows exactly who these posters are. Move on with your lives fellas. I know you feel like you aren't being your true self if you aren't bitching and moaning... but good grief, Taylor isn't a Bill anymore and we're less than a week away from drafting our future Franchise QB. It says a lot about you that you're pissing and moaning about the past rather than excitedly looking forward. This Tyrod obsession is sad.