transplantbillsfan

Yeah... I'd be doing friggin backflips if we don't have to trade up and we land Mayfield. I just don't think this happens, unfortunately.

It's interesting you're saying they don't incorporate screens, dump offs or checkdowns in their offense. I went on youtube to try to see if any of those "all the throws" from any of Josh Allen's games were up. I found this one: By the end of the first half alone, I counted at least 5 plays where easy outlet passes/ checkdowns/ dumpoffs were incorporated into the offense, so your claim that "Allen is required to throw the ball down the field all the time because his offense doesn't provide him any other options!!!" seems less true than the fact that it looks like Allen likes to play Hero Ball. Just in watching that footage and what I've seen from him otherwise, he sure looks like he struggles after his first read. And damn, his accuracy issues are also real because he seems to wildly miss some throws that should be gimmes. Look, you've watched Allen. You love Allen. You're a Wyoming fan, so no surprise. Allen might be great in the NFL eventually. Problem is, if he has to sit for a couple years before he can really step in and be successful, you've eaten half his rookie contract after probably having to give away multiple picks to move up and get him. If we stay at 12 and Allen falls to us and we draft him, I'll get behind that move relatively quickly. But you don't trade up for a prospect like Allen. Or you shouldn't.

Same old Thurm, taking a phrase like "I don't understand" for its denotative meaning rather than its obviously intended connotative meaning. And my oh my... you sure are obsessed with Tyrod. Seems weird you keep bringing up a QB of another team.

Really good? 56% completion % for 3200 yards with less than 30 TDs and worse than a 2:1 TD:INT ratio is really good for a top NFL prospect at a small school against bad teams in college? Yeah, that's not "really good" when you think of a top 5-10 NFL QB prospect. Plus... ya know... he got worse, not better in college.

Josh big. Josh move. Josh throw ball very fast. Josh play in small school. Josh play bad teams. Josh no good in college in small school against bad teams. I teach Josh. I wait long time for Josh get better. I spend top 10 pick on Josh. He change history. Yeah, I actually understand that as the thought process, but it's a dumb one, so I disagree.

You threw Rudolph in there and left out Jackson... why??? I hope they do, so we don't

Disagree. Not understandable why to me. First of all, Allen massively regressed statistically in college in every way. He didn't get better It's been 39 years since a QB from a small school against low level competition with mediocre success and a comparatively but seriously low completion % as it relates to his peers was drafted in the top 10 of the NFL draft. That was Phil Simms. Brett Favre is maybe the best QB to meet that criteria but he was drafted in the 2nd round and had a HOF career with another team, not the team that drafted him. There is almost ZERO precedent for thinking it's understandable why Josh Allen would be drafted in the top 10. And I'm not even saying he won't go on to be a Franchise QB in the NFL in a few years. But you DO NOT spend a top 10 pick on that guy. I'm going to be more shocked if Allen is drafted in the top 5 of this draft than if he slides well out of the top 10. I'm prepared and almost hoping to be shocked because I really don't want to see Allen slide to us at #12 and stare in terror as Goodell reads "with the 12th selection in the NFL draft, the Buffalo Bills select Josh Allen, Wyoming." If we trade into the top 5 targeting Josh Allen, I guess I'm just going to have to get on board and delude myself with what I'm calling now as an absolutely horrible move.

I hope so... get him off the board so I don't have to worry about Buffalo being stupid and drafting him.

I feel like Josh Allen might regret going. Does anyone else feel like he might drop out of the 1st round completely?

Seriously... more than any other year. Weird. 3 weeks and a few hours and the draft final begins!!!

Why? Other than his physical traits, what about Allen makes you think there's a reasonable chance he will succeed? As far as I know, there literally hasn't been an NFL QB prospect who played at a small school against weak competition and had a poor completion %, mediocre stats, and didn't improve year by year and went onto a successful NFL career since Brett Favre, and he was drafted in the 2nd round. You'd have to go back to Phil Simms in the 1979 draft almost 40 years ago to find a QB who checks all those boxes, was drafted in the top 10 and went onto a successful NFL career. So honestly, what about Allen makes you think he has a reasonable chance to be successful? I ask because I'm terrified we might draft him and it would be helpful to delude myself we made a good pick sooner rather than later.

Yet another piece of evidence that Baker Mayfield is the best of this bunch. If we draft Baker Mayfield, I will buy his jersey. I've only owned one other jersey in my life... Freddy Jackson.

Completely agree with you on the Jackson >>>>> Allen assessment. It's unfathomable to me that people are pumping Allen up like this and Jackson has become the forgotten man... at least publicly. There are only 3 QBs I think are worthy of a top 10 pick: Mayfield, Darnold & Rosen. And Jackson, not Allen, is the guy I think is right behind them. And if we draft him at 12, I think that'll be a great pick. I'm just so terrified we draft Allen.

God I hope so. The Allen hype is just baffling the hell outta me.

I was listening to the Colin Cowherd show this morning and he had Joe Banner on and I thought he had an interesting take. First of all, back in 2014 he was with the Cleveland Browns during the draft process, but left the team before the NFL draft. Banner specifically said he was shocked when the Browns ended up drafting Manziel because during the draft process, which he was a big part of, they saw ALL the red flags having to do with Johnny Football, refuting Manziel's comments on the DP show yesterday, but apparently the owner just stepped in and made the call. BUT THEN ALSO When asked how he would rank the QBs in the draft class this year, he specifically brought up the 2 character traits for a QB he deemed most important: Accuracy & Smarts. And he brought up Baker Mayfield and Baker Mayfield alone. I'm worried he might be the 1st. 1) Mayfield to the Browns 2) Darnold to the Giants 3) Rosen to the Jets That's my nightmare scenario. If that happens, I really really really really hope we don't make the mistake of trading up for Josh Allen and if we have the choice at 12 between Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, I really really really hope we take Jackson.

See... this is kinda what I was figuring the impact would be with the lack of an agent. Agents are there to get you the rounds on NFL Network and pump you up publicly. But NFL teams don't care about that. That's why I'm wondering if NFL teams have actually loved this move by Jackson because it's making it easier for them to let him slide a few spots. It'll be interesting if Jackson goes before Darnold, Rosen, Allen or Mayfield.

Nah, I think most just hope/assume our HC/GM are smart and good at their jobs and wouldn't do something like draft a comparatively crappy QB in an otherwise loaded class. Seriously... in the last 30-40 years how many QBs were so mediocre to bad at a tiny school against crappy competition? When I say comparatively, I mean consider what other QBs in that time were doing in terms of passing, too. Hell you probably have to go back to Phil Simms to find the only really relevant example when he was drafted 7th 39 years ago. Brett Favre went in the 2nd round... poor team that drafted him didn't even reap the benefits. Matt Ryan had a significantly higher completion % than Allen 10 years ago and improved every year against Division I ACC teams. Matthew Stafford might have ended his college career with only a slightly higher completion % than Allen but unlike Allen, Stafford improved significantly every single year as a starter against high level SEC competition. Where is any of this for Allen? 3rd round project QB I'd absolutely get behind. Maybe even overdraft in the 2nd round because he does have the potential to be a Franchise QB. But you draft a QB in the top 10 of the 1st round because you're utterly confident he's going to be a Franchise QB, not because of his potential to be one. Personally, I think he might drop precipitously... and I sure hope we don't bite.

Has anyone noticed the national media seems absolutely clueless we have 2 picks in each of the 1st 3 rounds? Tonight NFL network was blowing up how the Patriots have 4 picks in the 1st 2 rounds. Has anyone heard anyone at all nationally even reference all the picks we have?

God I hope not. Newton won the Heisman and a National Championship and was an absolutely dominant college player against the highest level of competition. Allen is a far cry from that. This just all feels like NFL coaches and GMs trying to get some other team to bite on Allen so another prospect falls a little further.

If it's for Allen, me too... begrudgingly. I still don't think it'll be for Allen, though. Just way too much smoke connecting us to him.

I'd still challenge anyone to find a QB with such a comparatively crappy completion % on a crappy team against crappy competition in the last 30 years who went in the 1st round. When I say comparatively, I mean consider what other QBs in that time are doing in terms of passing, too. Hell you probably have to go back to Phil Simms to find the only really relevant example when he was drafted 7th 39 years ago. Brett Favre went in the 2nd round... poor team that drafted him didn't even reap the benefits. Matt Ryan had a significantly higher completion % than Allen 10 years ago and improved every year against Division I ACC teams. Matthew Stafford might have ended his college career with only a slightly higher completion % than Allen but unlike Allen, Stafford improved significantly every single year as a starter against high level SEC competition. Where is any of this for Allen? 3rd round project QB I'd absolutely get behind. Maybe even overdraft in the 2nd round because he does have the potential to be a Franchise QB. But you draft a QB in the top 10 of the 1st round because you're utterly confident he's going to be a Franchise QB, not because of his potential to be one.

Jesus people are really just being so dismissive of Jackson as stupid right now. I think it's being lazy. First of all, the QB order I want is Mayfield THEN Darnold THEN Rosen (though skeptically) THEN Jackson. If we get one of those first 3, I think Bills fans will generally be very peaceful for awhile with regard to QB discussion. I want any of those 3 guys before Jackson, ESPECIALLY Mayfield. But I'll be happy with Jackson. Unfortunately, if we draft Jackson, apparently all hell is going to break loose as I feel like things will just devolve into factions again. I get it, a 13 on the wonderlic means he's dumb as rocks. It's that simple for some folks. Have you looked at that test? Have you taken it? Here, take it https://footballiqscore.com/ I can understand the reasoning for measuring a QB's cognitive ability as far as processing football plays in a timely manner. What I cannot understand are how 50 question that have to do with analogies, puzzles and mathematical equations in 12 minutes equates to football success. I just looked at the test, hit start and tried it for the first time at work 'cause I had a free 12 minutes. I got a 22. I also got an 1130 on my SATs. Whatever those numbers are or how people view those numbers, I don't view those numbers as measurements of my intelligence because, frankly, I'm a bad test taker. (Or I view myself as one as, at the very least, I'm self-aware enough to realize that just comes off as an excuse). But as far as "bad test-takers," some people are. I also suck at math and am at least 15 years removed from doing any real math at this point in my life. I'm sure I could score higher than that 22 if I separated myself from all the distractions at work and really focused rather than just deciding to throw 12 minutes at 50 questions for fun. But I already took that test and now I'm tied to that 22 because maybe I didn't take it as seriously as I should have or maybe I didn't understand the appropriate test taking strategy for this test was to just skip any question I get caught on so I can answer as many correctly as possible. All tests are different. I understand that Lamar Jackson doesn't talk the way we think of "face-of-the-franchise QBs" talk. He's not articulate or outspoken the way we think a QB should be. But that doesn't mean he's not smart in his own way or smart enough to play QB. And it certainly doesn't mean his teammates wouldn't follow him as a leader. Dude is an unbelievably talented playmaker. And he's absolutely light years already as a passer ahead of the last guy we had who seemed to completely divide Bills fans. Is he stupid? I don't think so. In fact, there are many accounts anecdotally of the guy having everything it takes in terms of processing and work ethic to be a successful passing QB in the NFL. https://www.fanragsports.com/nfl-draft/evaluating-and-grading-top-qbs-in-2018-nfl-draft/ Mental Processing Jackson: This is a strength for Jackson. He does a good job deciphering coverages and moving underneath defenders with his eyes based on things he saw before and after the snap. His work ethic has allowed for significant improvement in this area, but there are still times where he gets a little frazzled and doesn’t move through progressions cleanly. Generally speaking, Jackson does a good job working high to low and getting the ball out as needed. Personally, Jackson isn't my 1st choice. Or my 2nd. Or my 3rd. But if we don't trade up in the draft (which I still think we will) and we end up with Jackson while keeping all the rest of our picks, that might be a damn good consolation prize

Wow... I like the work you put in, but I just don't see it. And I disagree on the completion % thing... it's less of a concern for me with Lamar Jackson because of the sheer number of drops by his WRs, which you could even still see on his pro day. But Allen should have simply been dominant. He wasn't.

Tyrod over Jackson??? Oh boy... the QB order I want is Mayfield THEN Darnold THEN Rosen (though skeptically) THEN Jackson. If we get one of those first 3, I think this board will generally be very peaceful for awhile. I want any of those 3 guys before Jackson, ESPECIALLY Mayfield. But I'll be happy with Jackson. Unfortunately, if we draft Jackson, apparently all hell is going to break loose and this board is going to divide in half again. I get it, a 13 on the wonderlic means he's dumb as rocks. It's that simple for some folks. Have you looked at that test? Have you taken it? Here, take it https://footballiqscore.com/ I can understand the reasoning for measuring a QB's cognitive ability as far as processing football plays in a timely manner. What I cannot understand are how 50 question that have to do with analogies, puzzles and mathematical equations in 12 minutes equates to football success. I just looked at the test, hit start and tried it for the first time at work 'cause I had a free 12 minutes. I got a 22. I also got an 1130 on my SATs. Whatever those numbers are or how people view those numbers, I don't view those numbers as measurements of my intelligence because, frankly, I'm a bad test taker. (Or I view myself as one as, at the very least, I'm self-aware enough to realize that just comes off as an excuse). But as far as "bad test-takers," some people are. I also suck at math and am at least 15 years removed from doing any real math at this point in my life. I'm sure I could score higher than that 22 if I separated myself from all the distractions at work and really focused rather than just deciding to throw 12 minutes at 50 questions for fun. But I already took that test and now I'm tied to that 22 because maybe I didn't take it as seriously as I should have or maybe I didn't understand the appropriate test taking strategy for this test was to just skip any question I get caught on so I can answer as many correctly as possible. All tests are different. I understand that Lamar Jackson doesn't talk the way we think of "face-of-the-franchise QBs" talk. He's not articulate or outspoken the way we think a QB should be. But that doesn't mean he's not smart in his own way or smart enough to play QB. And it certainly doesn't mean his teammates wouldn't follow him as a leader. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2662128-the-education-of-lamar-jackson-how-louisville-qb-went-from-project-to-superstar The Education of Lamar Jackson: How Louisville QB Went from Project to Superstar He picked Louisville, knowing coach Bobby Petrino's history of developing QBs. Then Petrino delivered the playbook. "It looked like foreign letters," Jackson remembers. "I came from a high school where I didn't have a playbook or anything like that. Coach would draw it up and get the headset on, and we'd go after it." and And so when Jackson arrived on campus, he was not even named among the three guys who might be the starting quarterback. The playbook was still Greek to him, as were progressions, tight ends in motion and blitzes. Darn blitzes. That was a year ago. A few days ago, he threw for six touchdowns and ran for two more. and "At first, I was like, 'Why are they trying to make me do this?'" Jackson says. "'I'm trying to sleep.' It was crazy. I'd watch my bad plays—my good plays, too." The truth is, at first he wasn't even sure exactly what he was watching. Then it started making sense, and he realized he enjoyed it. "When I started getting more into it, I realized, 'This is what I'm here for.'" and Petrino says some of the things usually considered "natural intangibles" need to be worked on, too. For example, last year, Jackson was petrified to talk with the media. So he took a media class and also enlisted the help of a local reporter.

Yep. Has anyone ever been so wildly unsuccessful as a QB at such a small college against such crappy competition and been drafted super high and come into the NFL and been a Franchise QB? That's a legit question. Can anyone identify anyone?