transplantbillsfan

My major takeaway watching that interview is expect us to draft a TE in the 1st or 2nd round of the draft. McDermott talked glowingly about the importance of TE to a young QB unprompted for awhile and you could tell that he has such an unbelievably high level of respect for Gronk as a TE that he even refuses to believe he's retired. Hockenson or Fant will be on our team in 2019. That's my takeaway.

Tara is the most shocking one to die. How much longer is this show going to go? Are they just stretching this out forever for money's sake or is there a storyline they're following? The way Rick's last episode ended with him up in the helicopter alive, there can be absolutely no closure to this series without him showing up again. I honestly thought the episode where Rick decided not to kill Negan would have been the perfect series finale.

Not that these expert grades matter, but a week or 2 ago Daniel Jeremiah said he has the same grade on Kyler Murray this year as he had on Allen last year. Of course, Jeremiah also had Rosen with a higher grade than Allen.

You aren't paying attention.

I'm not. Others are. Are you paying attention? I did exactly that. Did you even read the OP?

First, congrats on civility and actually articulating yourself well for for the first time in a long time in any address to me Why didn't I consider those things? Because I wasn't considering judgement in terms of where the defender was, though that number shows up in batted/tipped and Interceptable passes. I wasn't considering personal injury like bunions on a foot. I wasn't considering omniscience like knowing that the sun was going to blind Foster on a perfect pass. I was just looking at catchable vs uncatchable while also factoring in spikes/Throwaways and batted/tipped passes and considering Interceptable passes in there, too. As far as trying to prove a negative, I did the exact same thing for 5 other QBs, so that just doesn't make sense. I want to see improvements, too. But his 52% completion percentage, was as much or more a result of SooOOooo many things other than accuracy. His accuracy was fine for a promising 1st round rookie QB in the NFL. Not great, but fine. He has improvements all facets of his game, for sure, but no more than the typical NFL rookie QB.

You understand that it's people, not technology that's doing the breakdown for these QBs, right? There's no AI that uses some kind of algorithm to decide what is an accurate vs an inaccurate pass. Also, those guys aren't using the dartboard approach. This is a highly highly subjective measure of ball placement, not accuracy. When you fall into the Goldilocks predicament, "just right" for one might be "too big" for another. As as you increase the variables, you also increase the gray lines, that's why I kept the gray lines at a minimum as much as possible. You're, making an idiotic argument. Our 3rd string TE was Logan Thomas, a college QB who eventually converted to TE in the NFL. Therefore, if Peterman were the only QB on our roster, he still wouldn't have been the best QB because our 3rd string TE would have been better. Even if Logan Thomas weren't on the roster, Peterman only would have come in close 2nd to the piece of dust floating around in the Bills locker room. That was not a logical fallacy. That was hyperbole... sort of...

There inevitably had to be SOME subjectivity, but you're vastly overestimating how often I had to do any kind of interpretation of any plays. WR reaches out or is would otherwise have the ability to reach out and have the ball hit the palm of at least one hand = Catchable WR reaches out or is would otherwise have the ability to reach out and NOT have the ball hit the palm of at least one hand = Uncatchable About the only interpretation of plays I had to do were for back shoulder throws, which were often obvious. And I understand why you wouldn't believe this, but I truly and conscientiously tried to arrive, if anything, on the side of uncatchable with Allen.

My breakdown of the numbers for each QB have been fixed in the OP. The %s were put in correctly from the beginning. I just didn't transfer Rosen and Jackson in correctly in terms of numbers. I stopped typing in Uncatchable passes at some point because I thought it was mathematically obvious. And if you're wondering why Jackson's total attempts are 199, it's because I counted his playoff game.

Interceptable passes are NOT part of the total attempt count. Sometimes a catchable passes is also Interceptable. Sometimes a tipped/batted pass is also Interceptable. Thank you for cross checking the numbers. I just added the uncatchable passes in the list--which was simple mathematically--but now I will go to my notebook where I have the numbers to check on Rosen and Jackson specifically. I may have just typed something in wrong. It was a lot of work and a long post.

What kinds of homer assumptions do you think I made? Did you read my pretty simple methodology in the OP? Did you read any of the OP?

Of course Allen can improve his accuracy. Sounds like that's one of the big things he's been working on this offseason. But Allen simply doesn't have to improve his accuracy to any significantly greater degree than the 4 rookies this year or than Deshaun Watson did after his rookie year or than Carson Wentz did after his rookie year. This almost comical criticism of Allen's accuracy that's practically turned itself into a Meme is unwarranted.

Oh that's precious... trying yo make it seem like you were merely making a prediction about Peterman rather than being all over his jock the way you were. Congrats for being right about our Head Coach being a total moron in that decision, but you weren't just putting that out there as some kind of hesitant prediction. You desperately wanted Peterman to start, for whatever weird reason. Apparently you missed Peterman's appearances against the Chargers and Jaguars in 2017.

Completion % is everything, huh? You're not seeing the big picture here if you're just brushing aside the talent gap. Rookie QBs... #1: 54.1% completion percentage, 1.75 TDs per game, 1.75 turnovers per game. #2: 52.8% completion percentage, 1.5 TDs per game, 1.2 turnovers per game. One had the benefit of an entire offseason of reps with the 1st team. One was relegated to a QB competition against inferior QBs and got a fraction of the snaps in the offseason with the 1s. Are you still so sure completion percentage is everything?

All of this critique is fine. However, the reason I decided to go through this endeavor WITHOUT including any breakdowns of ball placement or especially where the ball was supposed to go was because, first of all, I don't know crap about specific NFL playbooks. Hell, even the "experts" don't know crap about the 2018 Brian Daboll NFL playbook, do they? Do you really think these guys who are experts can truly break down #1 read vs #2 read vs hot read vs etc.? If you have that much faith in them, be blissful in... well, you get my drift, and if you don't, enjoy. But most of all, what I tried to do was the most objectively subjective breakdown I could possibly do. And I think my efforts stand.

To put Allen in the same class as Mayfield is ridiculous???? Mayfield propelled himself into the upper echelon of QBs in just one year? And I actually loved Mayfield and desperately wanted us to draft him. But that guy was surrounded by talent this past season. Allen was Sisyphus. But he kept pushing that boulder up the hill anyway, despite little help and knowing it was about to roll right back down. Hey... aren't you the guy who thought Peterman should be our starter? Wait I'm sorry, are you accusing me of providing incomplete stats? I didn't. It's there. Look closer.

Do you ever do anything other than equivocate? You are talking about what is known NOW. The article or "report" states that Beane was "furious" for the trade up THEN. In this case, THEN was a time that was more than a month before the draft. It was a time when Allen was widely viewed as at least one of the top 3 QBs pretty widely and one of the top 2 by many. So throwing out this hindsight argument you're trying to make because it's completely irrelevant to the reason Beane was furious when the Jets traded up to #3 more than a month before the draft, it's extremely reasonable--maybe even highly likely given the cloak and dagger nature of the face-to-faces with Allen before the and the history of comments from Beane about Josh going back to earlier in his college career--to believe that Beane may have been furious because he was targeting a couple QBs and that with the Jets trading up to 3, they might miss out on him.

Based on this class and the talk of it, I'm a bit surprised there are even 1 or 2 being talked about in the top 10.

You're talking about stuff that became known AFTER the draft. It's irrelevant. Beane had no access to or knowledge of ANY of this when Beane was reportedly "furious" about the Jets trading up to #3. And it bears repeating... the top 3 teams of last year's draft were in the market for a QB, so Beane being "furious" may have very easily meant he was targeting not just 1 or 2, but 3 QBs, and the Jets trading up to 3 made it genuinely possible Beane wouldn't get his guy.

Battle will be back. That's good.

That was what I initially thought, myself. Unless the school chose to do it themselves. It looks better for the school if they do it. Besides, I don't know if this would have come down from the NCAA. It wasn't flagrant. But the school has probably gotten some bad press because of it.

What the hell happened??? Seriously weird. Well, so much for thinking we had a chance to get to the Sweet 16 at least.

I believe that Darnold was our #1 choice. I said that for awhile leading up to the draft. So this doesn't surprise me. But the poster you respond to has a great point. While you say it's clear Darnold was highly likely one of the top 2 QBs, I don't think anyone had a clue outside of him. Mayfield going #1 was NOT the expectation a month or even a week leading up to the draft. I know because I was praying we'd get him and thought we had a great chance up until that last week (or was it day or 2...?) when suddenly Mayfield was the guy. Talk was all over the place for every other QB nationally. I'm sure it was the same among scouting and GM inner circles. So it's extremely reasonable to think Beane had Allen graded out as his 2nd QB just behind Darnold (pretty sure he basically said that about as directly as a GM can after the draft) and that he was now worried he'd lose his top 2 guys to Cleveland and the Jets. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2018-nfl-draft-browns-take-sam-darnold-at-no-1-josh-allen-to-jets-and-other-predictions/amp/ Josh Allen doesn't get past the Jets If the Giants select a quarterback second overall, then all the more reason that this will hold true. But even if it doesn't, the metrics – completion percentage aside – are very high and this kid has been impressing NFL teams the more time he spends around them and the Jets are among a handful of teams who were already super impressed by what Allen did in 2016. He won't have to wait long when Day 1 of the draft begins. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nydailynews.com/sports/football/jets/josh-allen-thinks-jets-trade-move-no-3-pick-article-1.3885810%3foutputType=amp Allen, part of the Big Three in this quarterback class (along with Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen), could be a member of Gang Green in five weeks depending on how the signal-caller dominoes fall on the first night of the draft. https://www.theringer.com/2018/4/17/17245210/nfl-mock-draft-4-0-josh-allen-cleveland-browns The Ringer’s 2018 NFL Mock Draft, Version 4.0 How would the Browns taking Josh Allen with the top overall pick change the rest of the draft? It’s getting harder and harder to scoff at the rumors linking Josh Allen to the Browns with the top pick. Well, we can still scoff—but there’s a growing list of reporters and analysts who seem convinced Cleveland’s interest in Allen is genuine: ESPN’s Mel Kiper has steadfastly put the Wyoming signal-caller in the top spot in every one of his mock drafts over the past few months; Peter King reported that his source close to Browns GM John Dorsey believes Cleveland will take Allen; Sports Illustrated’s Albert Breer has heard Cleveland is still trying to decide between Allen and Sam Darnold; and both NFL Network’s Daniel Jeremiah and NFL.com’s Lance Zierlein have reported that the Allen-to-Cleveland rumors have some legs. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.ganggreennation.com/platform/amp/2018/4/26/17287050/jets-draft-rumor-coaches-pushing-for-josh-allen Jets Draft Rumor: Coaches Pushing for Josh Allen?

Hell yeah! Mother in law is making corned beef and cabbage and father in law and I have a 12 pack of the pint sized Guinness Draught cans and a bottle of Green Spot Whiskey to drink.

They were inevitably going to have an extremely tough 2nd round matchup against either a #1 or #2. I'm happy with the bracket based on the progression of the regular season.