transplantbillsfan

Oy... I get that you don't like Allen--you might scream back that's not true, but clearly it is--but you're really on a mission. Allen was EXTREMELY raw coming out of college. He's basically still learning the position. Yeah, all QBs in the NFL are responsible for most of their team's TDs, but no other QB in the NFL has a higher % of TDs for his team than 2nd year raw QB Josh Allen. Yeah, all QBs in the NFL deal with drops, but the Buffalo Bills have a higher drop % than ANY other team in the NFL. Stop bringing up Tyrod. The stats argument is stupid in this instance. Taylor's got as many 4th Quarter comebacks and GWDs in his entire career as Allen does this year alone. And if you can't figure out why 4th Quarter stats and particularly those Game Winning Drives and comebacks matter so much, then get a better football education. The Bills are at least 10-6 and locked up a playoff spot in week 15 for the first time in 2 1/2 decades and you're seriously complaining because our 2nd year QB who was EXTREMELY raw when he was drafted isn't already a HOFer? Allen did what he was asked way more often than not for the entire season. Don't believe me? Look at our record and then look at the total % of plays this season Allen was touching the football. Not a crusade you shout??? The lady doth protest too much, methinks

Allen by no means needs to be a top QB right now. He's just finishing his 2nd year... and in his 2nd season he helped the Bills lock up a playoff spot in week 15... something this team hasn't 2 1/2 decades. I find it hard to believe that it's not so completely obvious to everyone the pretty conservative approach this coaching staff is taking with Allen. I didn't think they would be this conservative, but it seems it's paying off in terms of Allen's development and it hasn't been detrimental to the team so far. Allen's pretty much done what he's been asked to do more often than not this year, including protecting the football and leading his team to victory late in games when needed. I actually think it's pretty unlikely Allen is "kicked to the curb in year 5," unless you believe McDermott is no longer our Head Coach and Beane is no longer our GM. Allen is their guy... pretty obviously. And if our Defense remains Elite, I think this slow walk for Allen will probably continue... seems the McDermott way.

Also crazy the flukish nature of at least half the turnovers. Allen and the offense seemed to be able to move the ball at will in that game, but then random crazy turnover.

I'm glad the Bills didn't practice on Christmas!!! Nice reward for the players in a well played season.

Merry Christmas to all my PPP pals!!! May all your Christmas wishes be fulfilled... well, except for one sorry... had to do it. MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!

First of all, drops are a stat tracked by the NFL and they're extremely conservative... only the most obvious ones. The whole ball velocity too much argument goes out the window for these because they're blatant. And the Bills have a higher drop percentage of any team in the NFL. These aren't numbers I'm making up. You're a Chiefs fan? If the Bills had the same drop percentage as the Chiefs, Allen's completion percentage goes up to 60.5%. He would also pretty naturally have a higher YPA, too... at the very least. Is 60.5% good enough? Well, right now 58.8% seems to be good enough as far as this season goes, but 60.5% would obviously just look better optically. And then imagine if the Bills had the drop percentage of the Falcons at 1.1%... Allen's completion % goes up to 62.5% And remember... those stats only account for blatant drops, not the catchable ones you think I'm talking about. But Merry Christmas nonetheless.

Actually I don't particularly care about completion percentage as far as how it relates to QB accuracy, I care about it because it means plays are being made on the field. I've maintained for awhile now that completion percentage doesn't reflect accuracy. I just pretty firmly believed his completion percentage would go up significantly this year because we've upgraded our talent. It has gone up, but not as much as I thought it would. I didn't anticipate we'd have the highest drop rate in the NFL despite the upgraded talent. And I am not saying that game was an L because of Mahomes. If you read what I said, I said it was the best game for a non-Patriots QB in the last 2 years. They didn't lose that game because of him. No. They also didn't win the game in Foxborough because of him, either. This is all about cherry picking with this, isn't it? If Josh Allen hits Knox on those 2 EZ attempts, the Bills win. Right? That's the logic here, isn't it? Okay, same logic would be last year if Mahomes didn't throw that interception (the non hail Mary), the Chiefs would have won that game. So if this L was on Allen, that one was on mahomes, right?

I get it for Allen. I really do. He needs reps and muscle memory. I suspect they won't play the starters the entire game. Guessing they sit guys after a quarter or two

Sorry on this earlier guys... 2nd time I forgot to move the decimal point. now it's correct

I assumed the poster meant the game the Chiefs won this year. Yes that game you point to is the best game the Pat's defense has allowed for an opposing QB over the last 2 years--though Mahomes also threw 2 INTs in that game... one could certainly argue those 2 picks determined the outcome... and what was the outcome of that game? Did the Chiefs win or lose?

https://theathletic.com/1483422/2019/12/23/sandos-pick-six-are-the-seahawks-super-bowl-chances-doomed?source=shared-article purely from an offensive EPA standpoint, the Bills outperformed all but two New England opponents this season (Baltimore, Houston).

And in the last 7 games the Bills have played the #2, #5, #6, #7, #9, #11 and #28 pass defenses by traditional yards. If you wanna go Defensive DVOA, we've played the #1, #4, #5, #13, #14, #23 and #32 pass defenses according to that metric.

Okay I'm going to piggyback off a post earlier from @HappyDays... now updated with the last 2 games Allen has now played in 27 games: Games 1-5: 60.4 passer rating Games 6-10: 70.3 passer rating Games 11-15: 80.8 passer rating Games 16-20: 82.5 passer rating Games 21-27: 88.8 passer rating

Did you know that Alexander was also pivotal to stifling the Ravens a few weeks ago??? https://theathletic.com/1444660/2019/12/09/seven-observations-from-bills-loss-josh-allen-has-another-weak-spot-to-fix-and-bills-create-the-lamar-blueprint?source=shared-article 3) Bills provided the NFL a blueprint for the Ravens offense The Ravens brought their unique offensive scheme to Buffalo, and the trouble with teams defensive game-planning for them so far has been overthinking it. The Ravens offense bring a lot of speed, which provided a challenge on paper for the Bills. Baltimore is primarily in a personnel grouping that dictates the defense gets into its base formation, which meant a lot of strong-side linebacker Lorenzo Alexander for the Bills. Alexander, 36, has been a dependable player for the Bills but struggles in the change of direction and getting to the edge quickly enough to make a stop. Using a bigger defensive back instead of Alexander, seemed like a logical change for the Bills. Still, they stuck with Alexander all game and he rewarded them with a fantastic performance. In total, Alexander took 71 percent of the team’s defensive snaps and was part of the grand effort to limit Lamar Jackson in a way that no other team has to this point of the season. Let's not overreact

I think we should all feel really good about Allen's improved 2nd season

I'm fine sitting the main starters we can sit as far as numbers are concerned, but I wonder if they don't give Allen at least a series or 2 to give him some reps for muscle memory's sake.

Allen attributed his inaccuracy especially early in the game to nerves and he's come out and said the 1st Patriots game this year changed his perspective on a lot of things, particularly as it has to do with protecting the football. Personally, I think some of these overthrows (both Knox misses in the EZ) might be connected to that mindset... one of slight overcompensation in order to not risk the pick.

Patriots and Bills are tied for 2nd in total drops, but the Bills drop rate is 4.7% vs the Patriots drop rate of 3.7%. If the Bills had the same drop rate as the Patriots, Allen would have 5 more completions, bringing his completion percentage up to 59.9%.

A game that proves my point. Mahomes wasn't great in that game... threw an early interception, actually. He was aided by a great defense that day... along with a couple great Special Teams plays. The Chiefs Defense held the Pats offense to less than 300 yards (Bills D gave up 414) inclusing a few 3 & outs (Bills D held the Pats to only one), 4.5 yards per play (Bills D gave up 6.1), and a ridiculous 16% 3rd down conversion rate (Bills D allowed 50%). Plus the Chiefs got a big defensive play with a blocked FG. Pretending that's a game Mahomes and the Chiefs win if the D doesn't show up like that with the way he played is a bit silly. Look at last year when the Chiefs lost to the Pats in Foxborough... Mahomes couldn't carry his team on that day.

Does an incompletion hurt the team more than an Interception? Do you think another QB in the NFL makes that 4th and 1 yesterday or vs Dallas? One needs to weigh it ALL when thinking about the QB, not just whether he missed a few throws he should have completed... although once again, at that point, shouldn't we also factor in the 22+ passes that our WRs, TEs and RBs dropped this year?

It'd clearly be fair to then also ask the question if our record would be different if our WRs, TEs and RBs caught the 22+ balls they dropped this year that were thrown to them. Right?

Do we? Are you assuming this with the exact same play calling? Swap QBs and many don't make a number of the plays Allen made.

Yss... this is the kind of crap about Daboll that irritates the heck outta me.