transplantbillsfan

That was sickening. Absolutely sickening

The guy was pretty much staring Ford in the face when he blocked him. Ridiculous call. Oh well. Price we pay for being Bills fans. Maybe with the changing of the guard in the NFL with the demise of Marsha and the hoody some calls will start going our way. There was also a blatant delay of game somewhere in there the refs completely whiffed on.

Snippet from an article by Fairburn in The Athletic: https://theathletic.com/1509902/2020/01/05/a-lot-of-pain-in-that-locker-room-josh-allen-sean-mcdermott-let-down-bills-in-collapse-against-texans?source=shared-article At the end of the first half, coming out of a timeout, the Bills had the ball at the Houston 23 with 30 seconds to play and one timeout in their pocket. Rather than going for the Texans’ collective jugular, McDermott played for the field goal. In the third quarter, with the ball at the Texans 42-yard line, the Bills punted on fourth-and-4. Again, playing not to lose. But then, coming out of the two-minute warning in the fourth quarter, the Bills faced fourth-and-27 from Houston’s 42-yard line, down by three and with all three timeouts. McDermott inexplicably decided to go for it. “We wanted to be aggressive,” McDermott said. That was a hell of a time to cave to that desire. It was one of many ways in which McDermott outsmarted himself. Duke Williams, who didn’t make the active roster out of camp and was active for just four games in the regular season, played more snaps than Beasley, who had two 100-yard games in his last four. Frank Gore touched the ball eight times, some in critical situations, despite Devin Singletary racking up 133 yards from scrimmage. Tre’Davious White was too often left alone on DeAndre Hopkins, who had six catches for 90 yards in the second half and caught all four of his targets for 70 yards against White in the second half.

Drops? He had several? I know that EZ pass was a great pass by Allen but a very difficult catch. I wish Duke were in there all year. He clearly gave Allen another weapon he didn't have with Foster in there. I don't really think he'll be on the team next year though.

God man! Just reflecting back on that sequence at the end of the 1st half irritates the heck outta me!!! Ball just outside of the red zone at the 23 with 30 seconds left in the half with the clock stopped after driving pretty much the entire length of the field and you hand it to Gore up the middle??? Seriously?!?!?! And then Allen is forced to waste another play by spiking it? 15 seconds and 2 plays wasted in a 30 second range where we had plenty of time to potentially score a TD.

Article makes a lot of valid points. Another question: what happened to the no-huddle the team was running so much in order to have Daboll talking into Allen's headset about what he saw as long as he could? We grabbed the lead and went into a shell. It's McDermott's coaching philosophy. Everyone likes to counter with our 4th down aggressiveness, but I don't think it's really a bold decision to go for it on 4th and short with our QB. I hope the whole "play fearless" mantra comes into play next season and for seasons to come as we work to become the new Kings of the AFC East... because at least Marsha lost today.

Don't sleep on Carlos Hyde. He's the exact type of runner we struggle against. I hope our defense can fix its run issues.

Dude are you a friggin Bills fan? What a loser.

I finally watched this. Thanks for posting it. The most interesting part of that video was the breakdown of what Allen did against the Zero blitz when we were running the mesh concept to get Earl Thomas to move and throw the ball to Knox, who of course drops it. Man. Between just that missed TD to McKenzie on a great pass and that poor route running by John Brown on the last play, we were just an inch away from winning that Ravens game.

I expect at least one deep shot to Duke today and I expect Allen to give him a fighting chance to catch it. Yes, Duke is not a burner. But he's evidently a good enough route runner to get open down the field as we saw last week from those 2 deep passes. Today is going to be interesting. I'm excited and nervous.

Word. If he's active, he'll also be a fairly significant part of the gameplan.

Wish I could share your optimism. I've been a Bills fan for too damn long. If I don't have permanent emotional scarring, it'll at least take a few years to heal it.

Interesting... good eyes.

It's really not that difficult to figure out what's a throwaway vs what's a straight up miss if you're watching the plays.

Yep. That's not the 32nd he currently ranks in completion percentage. Pretty massive jump. And I would say he falls very much within the standard deviation of accuracy for good NFL QBs in that range. Remember, accuracy and completion percentage in particular is not the Olympics; you don't have to be #1, you just have to be in a certain range overall. Allen had a higher on target percentage than Brady, Wentz, Goff, Stafford and Mayfield, among others, was 0.2% lower than Kyler Murray and 1.5% lower than Aaron Rodgers. The difference of 10 spots between him at 21 and Russell Wilson at 11 is a mere 3%, which is interesting considering Wilson's completion percentage was 7.3% higher than him. So if you're one of those people who believe where you're ranked in the NFL in terms of accuracy is what's most important, then obviously Allen being 21st out of 32 means he's not very good--though clearly he's a lot better than that 32nd in completion percentage would indicate. But like I said, accuracy is not the Olympics.

Not a bad game to play here. Let's try adjusted completion percentage for Allen taking away both drops (22 was the number before the Jets game) and Throwaways (25) http://stats.washingtonpost.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?range=NFL&rank=232&type=Receiving https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2019/passing_advanced.htm?sr&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=Share&utm_campaign=ShareTool#ks_passing_detailed_accuracy Adjusted Completion percentage = 69% Actually... just look at this reference for advanced passing stats with regard to accuracy... pretty interesting: Highest drop percentage by 1 % (which is a lot) 3 spikes (tied for 4th most) 10 batted passes (13th most) Okay. Adding the batted passes and spikes, Allen's accuracy percentage (and we still haven't looked at passes that weren't dropped but may have been catchable but were well defended or the WR wasn't looking or whatever...): Adjusted Completion percentage = 71.8%

I think that jives with what we've seen. He's certainly improved his short to intermediate passing immensely. For whatever reason, he struggles a bit throwing to the right side of the field.

https://theathletic.com/1505120/2020/01/02/nfl-wild-card-picks-against-the-spread-and-five-favorite-prop-bets?source=shared-article The Bills’ offense has actually been better on the road (12th in DVOA) than at home (31st) this season.

Some poster somewhere on here had a great analogy over the last few weeks debunking the "trend argument" like the one brought up here. These may be the trends over the last half century, but they aren't determinitive for this team. Just like life expectancy. Just because life expectancy for an American Male is whatever it is right now (79 years??), that doesn't mean that's my life expectancy. This trend argument is the type of thing a bettor in Vegas can use when putting money down on teams he hasn't watched. We, however, have watched this football team play. I just don't know how anyone watching this team this year believes that the Bills--as a whole team... not just Josh--played better or even as good at New Era as they did on the road.

Already established the defenses Allen faced at home were very much similar to the defenses he played on the road. 2 top 5 defenses at home. 2 top 5 defenses on the road. 4 top 10 defenses at home. 4 top 10 defenses on the road. What are the other factors?

Then what factors on the list would you put above it? Clearly you think there are many. Then why was he pretty consistently accurate on the road? His completion percentage on the road vs at home is strikingly better.

I actually think the "play fearless" comment was more short-lived than anything.

I did a quick search for the thread that argued this very point--which I've been arguing for awhile, too--but couldn't find it... figured the point is relevant now. The 2019 Buffalo Bills are a road team. And it's not just the whole notion that defense travels, though it does. Our offense scored nearly 5 fewer points at home than on the road. And even if you want to argue that the last game against the Jets skews that, our offense still scored over 3 fewer points at home than on the road. Somehow it all starts with Allen, who I truly believe feels added pressure when he plays at home that makes him play tighter. I hope he can get over this in the offseason, but anyone watching him play probably noticed it. And the numbers certainly bear it out. Allen at home: 54.9% completion percentage, 5.9 YPA, 9 TDs, 5 INTs, 76.9 Passer Rating Allen on the road: 62.1% completion percentage, 7.4 YPA, 11 TDs, 4 INTs, 92.6 Passer Rating 4-4 at home 6-2 on the road More 4th quarter comebacks on the road than at home. 2 primetime games both on the road. Both wins with Allen showing up on the big stage on the road. Can't really argue the defenses he played at home vs on the road because he played an equal number of top 10 defenses at home (4) as he did on the road (4). Josh Allen vs top 10 defenses at home: 46.2% completion percentage, 4.5 YPA, 3 TDs, 3 INTs, 0 4th Quarter comebacks, 56.8 Passer Rating Josh Allen vs top 10 defenses on the road: 61.6% completion percentage, 7.4 YPA, 5 TDs, 3 INTs, 24th quarter comebacks, 88 Passer Rating I am not predicting a win. But honestly, I feel better about our offense and Josh Allen on the road on this big stage in a playoff game than I would have at home, where he seems to play tight under what appears to be added home crowd pressure. What actually has me worried this week more is our defense, which is going up against a runner in Carlos Hyde who is the exact type of runner our defense has proven weak against this year. Not to mention Watson, Hopkins and potentially Fuller. Nonetheless, I'm excited--and terrified--of this upcoming road playoff game and any we might have remaining if we win this one

Sounds like a smokescreen

Robert Foster: 18 targets, 3 receptions, 64 yards, 0 TDs Duke Williams: 19 targets, 12 receptions, 166 yards, 1 TD I'm sorry, but one of these things is not like the other. You're missing nothing. It's sheer stupidity to keep Foster active for any reason over Duke at this point. And unfortunately, I think our coaching staff is stupid with regard to these particular players.