Logic

I'm sticking with my prediction, no matter how overly optimistic it may seem: Bills go into week 18 only needing to beat the Dolphins to secure the 7th seed. The Dolphins, having already secured the 2nd seed and with nothing to play for, pull the starters early and the Bills win. Bills return to Miami the following week for the Saturday night game of Wild Card Weekend.

Well that was five years ago! About damn time.

I can't remember the last Bills running back who gave me the confidence, every time he was handed the ball, that he'd pick up 4-6 yards. I can't remember the last Bills running back that -- even though we have an elite QB -- made me WANT to see the Bills hand the ball off a bunch during the game. Himbo Cook. Silky smooth. Beast. Best football is still ahead of him. Great draft pick. Not to detract from James Cook, who this thread is about, but: between Cook, Kincaid, Shakir, O'Cyrus Torrence, and even Spencer Brown, the Bills' future is looking bright on offense. These youngsters can PLAY!

I have always loved that quote, but never knew specifically who it was attributed to. Thanks.

Obviously a win going into the bye would be huge, but... Assuming the Bills need to go 5-2 the rest of the way to have a good shot at playoffs, tomorrow is one of the two games they can MOST afford to lose (the other being the Cowboys game). Put simply: winning all of their remaining games would obviously be best, but if they HAVE to lose a couple, the NFC opponents would be the least harmful ones to lose.

Cook looks to have what it takes to be the featured back in Buffalo for the foreseeable future. As others have mentioned, there's more to unlock with his passing game involvement, as well. I'd love to see the Bills find a big, thumping "thunder" to Cook's "lightning" this offseason. Essentially, a younger, fresher version of Latavius Murray, who is rather long in the tooth. Ty Johnson looks like a good RB3 to me, but probably not much more. Fournette may or may not even see snaps this year and is approaching 30 himself. Shame that Damien Harris sustained a serious injury this year. I would have been interested to see what he could do as the year progressed.

The "other teams' QB" point is real, and I am optimistic that the Bills will have a shot at a Wild Card spot going into week 18. HOWEVER... The Bills AFC conference record is abysmal. They are 3-5. So the problem is that in a hypothetical world where they finish with the same record as the teams you mentioned, they lose most tie breakers. Not only do the Bills likely need to go 5-2 down the stretch (which is no small feat), it would also really help if they won all of their remaining AFC games, specifically.

Per Joe Marino on Twitter: 32 points is the most any team has scored against the Jets in the last two years. Not a bad first outing for Mr Brady...

It seems to be the way of the world in online journalism these days, for better or worse. Modern readers have such short attention spans and will click away from something incredibly quickly if it doesn't immediately grab their attention, or so the theory goes, anyway. Gone are the days of erudite and eloquent journalism or of journalism as art, at least as it relates to sports writing. Dr Zimmerman, Sharp is not. Unfortunately, it's all about clicks and "minutes spent on website" and ad revenues these days.

Personally, I was really encouraged by what I saw from the offense yesterday. The defense continued to play really well, particularly considering all of the injuries to the unit. But obviously, given the change at offensive coordinator, the offense is what I was most interested to see. A good first outing for Joe Brady and company. Schematically: - Attacking the Jets' defense logically, i.e. they have really good corners, so we featured the running backs and tight ends instead - Featuring the running backs in the passing game. Not as checkdown options, but on plays where they're the primary read - Scheming players open. Happened on the James Cook and Ty Johnson touchdowns - Attacking the middle of the field, namely to Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir - Featuring the young Bills offensive players in the gameplan. Kincaid, Shakir, Cook, and even Ty Johnson all critical to success on the day - Less predictability. I, as a viewer, had way less idea what was coming from play to play. Can only imagine it was the same for the Jets defense - Good tempo throughout. It could be me, but plays seemed to be getting in faster, and the Bills O getting to the line sooner and with more time on the playclock. - Diggs only had 27 yards and Davis had 0, but the Bills still scored 32 points. This showed diversity and creativity and an ability to produce beyond WR1 Intangibles: - Josh was fired up, and firing up teammates. Him sprinting all the way downfield to celebrate with Shakir, and then the WAY he celebrated with Shakir. Man, what a sight for sore eyes. Guys looked like they were having more fun. Didn't look so "heavy". A player or two specifically mentioned after the fact that it was a fun day, too. Things I'll be watching going forward: - Diggs was invisible. Was this simply a matter of gameplanning against a specific opponent? Will Joe Brady find good and creative ways to get Diggs involved going forward? - Will the running backs continue to be featured in the passing game? Cook and Johnson are both good pass catchers and both have the speed to outrun linebackers, so I hope this continues to be a part of the gameplan - Will Shakir continue to become the de facto WR2, and perhaps even begin to take snaps away from Gabe Davis? - Will the offense continue to look like it's having fun instead of doing heavy lifting?

No, his IR was not season-ending. No, not a single report has surfaced that it would be a season-ending injury. Yes, he can come back when the four weeks are up. And lastly...I would have been on the "his career with the Bills is finished" train, too, but IF -- and that's a big if -- the reports are true that Brandon Beane turned down a 3rd round pick (or any pick, really) for Elam because he's not ready to give up on him, well...maybe he gets one more shot next year.

I'll tell ya what. With the firing of Dorsey and the promotion of Brady, my interest in tomorrow's game went from "meh" to "!!!!!!". I am just so interested to see how the offense looks. I am so interested to see if Josh looks like he's having a bit of fun out there. I'm so interested to see if the Bills can smash the Jets, build some confidence, then go upset the Eagles and go into their much needed bye week 7-5 and with a new life about them. Make no mistake, Burrow and Watson being out for the year -- along with the rest of the backup QB led teams that make up Buffalo's Wild Card competition -- now means that making the playoffs is very doable for the Bills. 10-7 should do it, with an outside shot that 9-8 might, as well. My prediction? Bills go into Miami week 18 with the seven seed on the line and beat the Dolphins, who already have the two seed locked up and don't have much to play for, then the Bills return to Miami the following week for Wild Card weekend. But first: the Jets.

Allen is in the top five in pretty much every passing metric this season, has scored more total touchdowns than any player in football, and is on pace to set career best marks in completion percentage and touchdowns. For whatever we can all say about Josh's demeanor or the faces he makes or whatever, he's still having a very good year on the football field -- INTs or not.

I have not liked what I've been hearing from Sean McDermott lately. I'll say it again: for a guy that preaches "accountability" so loudly and so often, he sure does seem to lack it lately. For whatever may have been going wrong with the offense and the QB, guess what, Sean? YOU'RE THE HEAD COACH OF THE TEAM. THE BUCK STOPS WITH YOU. I have always been a staunch McDermott defender, but he is really testing my patience lately. His act is wearing thin to me, and I'm just a fan. I can't help but wonder how the players feel.

Yes, they say Lamar needs to develop his passing and learn to win from the pocket... But no, the discourse has never been "he should stop running" or "lets take the scrambling element out of his game". With Lamar, the discourse is "let's get him to be a better passer to supplement the threat he offers as a runner". With Josh, it seems to be "he needs to stop running because it's dangerous to his health and it's not how good QBs win games, and he needs to win as a pure pocket passer instead".

The thing that drives me crazy with the "reigning Josh in from running the ball" thing is this: Why is Josh Allen the only dangerous running QB that everyone always says "he needs to run less" about? How come you NEVER hear anyone say "Lamar Jackson needs to run the ball less and just win from the pocket"? Like, yes, of COURSE you need to be able to win from the pocket to be a successful QB in the NFL, but that should not come at the expense of being a great runner. It has never, ever, ever been the case that Josh Allen should run the ball less. That is an absolutely asinine thing to want. It's taking away one of the most potent weapons the Bills offense has. The problem is and ALWAYS HAS BEEN that he simply needs to slide or run out of bounds instead of plowing recklessly into three defenders or leaping through the sky like Superman when he's 5 yards short of a first down. Not less running, SMARTER running. Anyone who actually wants Josh to run less -- and this includes his coaches -- is a damned fool. And clearly his coaches HAVE been in his ear about running less, what with Josh's own talk about "you can't major in running the football as a quarterback". The hell you can't! P.S. Where has every major Josh Allen injury so far in his career happened? In the pocket.

Thanks. I'm familiar with the mesh concept. It's ubiquitous in modern football. I think just about every team runs some version of it. My question is, was Dorsey running it somehow differently than other teams run it? Did he alter it in some way that led to disadvantageous spacing? I don't imagine that the Bills frequently turning to Mesh is what led to all the hand wringing, in and of itself. There must have been more to it.

Thanks, Hoof. I have a general question pertaining to the Bills' offensive scheme this year. I'm not sure if it's specific enough to warrant a response. Let's see: I saw guys like Dan Orlovsky and the Cover 1 film crew saying again and again that Dorsey's scheme did not make very good use of spacing in his route concepts. Without having access to the All-22 and without having the necessary knowledge to parse through it even if I did, I'm not able to suss out the truth of this statement. I DID see with my own eyes on TV every week that two receivers (and sometimes even three) tended to wind up in the same cluster of space on the field a bit too often for my liking, though I can't say whether this was due simply to poor execution, or to the theoretical poor use of spacing about which I'm asking. From your perspective, were there legitimate issues with the way Ken Dorsey's scheme did or did not make use of spacing in his route concepts and combinations, and is there a way that Joe Brady can realistically improve in this area going forward this season, in your opinion?

Great response. Thanks. I just specifically wanted to mention that the two examples you mentioned -- Demeco Ryans and Robert Saleh -- don't necessarily refute my overall point, in my opinion. The former is succeeding in large part because his offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, the latest guy from the Shanahan, McDaniel, McVay, Lafleur group, seems to be a brilliant offensive mind. The things he's doing with a rookie quarterback and an underwhelming offensive cast of players is a sight to behold. The only problem is that it's reasonably likely that Slowik will be hired away to be a head coach after this season or next. I don't mean to minimize Ryans' effect as the head man for the Texans, and his defense his great, too, but make no mistake: Without that explosive offense, I doubt they're outgunning the Bengals of the world. And if Slowik IS hired away this offseason? That means the impressive young QB will already be forced to learn a second offensive coordinator's playbook in just his second season. The latter is a perfect example of my worry: the Jets have an absolutely elite defense. Perhaps the best in franchise history. And yet, there's a reasonable likelihood that they're going to miss the playoffs. Why? They're bad on offense. Sure, Aaron Rodgers is out for the year. But that's not always a death sentence. Quality offensive play callers can still find ways to make it work more than what the Jets have done this year. Also, we all ASSUME the Jets would be shredding the NFL if Rodgers is healthy, but we simply don't know that to be true for sure. When I look at the Jets, I see an elite defensive coach leading a team with an elite defense and a moribund offense. If Saleh fails as head coach, it will almost certainly be because the Jets could never consistently field a respectable offense. I absolutely did not subscribe to the "offensive guys are better head coaches in the modern NFL than defensive guys" theory until this season. I stubbornly refused to believe it. I looked at guys like Pete Carroll and Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, and concluded that leadership is what matters most. But then I thought: well, exactly how many championships have Carroll, Tomlin, and Harbaugh won since 2013? Zero. I simply fear that the "my offensive coordinator keeps getting hired out from under me" phenomenon is too much of an ongoing disruption to offenses to not be a factor which significantly hinders teams' offensive success. And since offensive success seems to be what the NFL wants to emphasize above all else, this is a fatal problem. Put simply: if the NFL is going to lean ever more heavily into offense -- and I get what you're saying about defenses counter-punching in the years to come, and I agree -- and if the writing seems to be on the wall that "the best offense with the best QB has the best chance at the Super Bowl each year" (which is certainly what the Reid/Mahomes dominance seems to point to)...then I want the Buffalo Bills to follow that recipe. The good news is that they already have one of the two elements needed! Not many teams can say that! They have Josh Allen, who can lay reasonable claim -- when he is playing at his best, that is -- to being the best in the game. It is simply my belief that so long as Sean McDermott is the head coach of the Bills, they're never realistically going to have the second element: the best possible offense. I could be wrong. Joe Brady could be the guy, or McDermott could hire some hot young offensive wiz kid as OC this offseason, and the Bills offense could be gangbusters again. But then we're back to the "poaching" problem. How long do the Bills get to have Brady or Wiz Kid X before he gets hired away? Pairing Allen with an elite offensive mind as head coach eliminates the "perpetual turnover on offense" problem and, at least theoretically, gives him a 10 year window of great play-calling instead of a series of one and two year windows interspersed with turnover. You may be right, I may be behind the curve. In actuality, though, I feel that it's the BILLS who are behind the curve here. I think offense is the present and the future, and Sean McDermott is simply never going to be Mr Offense.

What are the odds that a drunk Bills fan gets confused and throws a d*ldo at Joe Brady this Sunday?

Two things: One, it's clear to me from Sean McDermott's press conference that he didn't feel that Ken Dorsey was getting the job done from a leadership standpoint, in terms of the things that are "in the margins", as he put it: Execution, ball security, energy, confidence. Whether or not Joe Brady will be an improvement in these areas remains to be seen, but I found that particular comment from McDermott to be very clear in terms of painting a picture of why he fired Dorsey. It was more direct and open than he usually is, I'd say. He left no question as to what one of the main driving forces was in Dorsey's dismissal. Two....it's gonna be weird as hell if a guy named Brady saves the Bills season and leads them to the playoffs.

Very clearly the Ravens. The Bills are realistically competing with the Bengals for a Wild Card spot. From here on out, we root FOR division leaders and root AGAINST our Wild Card competition.

The game against the Broncos last week was the first one the Bills have lost at home all year. Last year they lost only one regular season game at home. There are lots of things we can say about the current Buffalo Bills and their shortcomings, but they generally still have a good home field advantage, and they have a very good record at home the past two seasons.

Not yet known, but I sure hope so. I think he has something to offer in terms of being a good pass blocker who can also leak out and catch passes, and also as a short yardage and goal line back. He has had over 1,000 yards from scrimmage each of the past two seasons and his five years younger than Murray. He is by no means "washed". Only problem is that Ty Johnson seems to be the primary kick returner and play on special teams, so he may continue to get the nod over Fournette. He shouldn't, though. When was the last time Ty Johnson had a big return or did anything noteworthy on the football field? I think Fournette offers more to the offense than Johnson does to special teams, but...I'm not the one making the roster decisions.

Thanks for the great writeup, as always. First, your primary statement is correct. Firing Ken Dorsey was the correct move at this time. It was really the ONLY move. It was not a case of scapegoating, but rather, the only logical decision to be made. As to the bigger picture (and I guess I'm really just typing out my feelings on the subject because I'm curious to hear yours) : I have always defended Sean McDermott. To have the winning percentage he does -- which ranked first among all Bills coaches coming into this season and, as you pointed out, ranks favorably amongst his peers -- means that he's a good head coach. HOWEVER... I believe that he may no longer be the right man to lead this Buffalo Bills team. I think it can be simultaneously true that a coach is very good at what he does, AND that he is not the correct man to be leading a certain team at a given point in time, and I fear that may be what has happened in Buffalo. I simply think that the collective history of the Bills under McDermott -- 13 seconds, all of the trauma of last season, the myriad bumbling losses where they stole defeat from the jaws of victory over the past few years -- has become incredibly heavy on the shoulders of this team, and that the only way to move past it, and thus to reinvigorate the team and inject the fresh energy and enthusiasm and confidence that the players so clearly need, is to turn the page. Heck, to throw the book away and start a completely new one. I just think it's time. I won't pretend to have a specific pick for who should replace McDermott if he's let go, but I WILL say that I have come to the point where I see the downfall of having a defense-minded head coach in 2023. Quite simply, if the OC he hires is any good, he's going to get poached to be a head coach somewhere else after a season or two. The only way your OC is sticking around for the long haul is if he's not poach-worthy, and if that's the case, it means your offense probably isn't as good as it needs to be. So in a hypothetical world where the Bills keep McDermott, I fear they're in for a perpetual cycle of OC turnover, and thus, offensive instability. The inverse is true if you hire an offense-minded coach, of course, but I think turnover at defensive coordinator is less of a big deal, and besides, teams seemingly hire away good defensive coordinators to be head coaches less often these days, anyway. Up until this season, I believed that you could still consistently compete for titles with a defense-minded head coach. I still believed that having an elite defense paired with a franchise QB was a recipe for constant championship contention. But if I look around the league now at the teams making the most noise and looking the most dangerous? It's offensive wiz kids across the board. And some of the teams that have great offenses because of their offensive coordinator, instead? Well, those guys (the Ben Johnsons and Bobby Slowiks of the world) are likely to get hired away from those teams this offseason. Besides, the long time calling cards of Sean McDermott? Mental toughness, attention to detail, accountability? I'm just not seeing them on display any more. So if he's not offering those things and he's not offering an elite offense for Josh Allen, what is he offering, exactly? McDermott will get the rest of the season here, as he should. But as much as I respect him as both a man and a coach, I've reached the point where I'm ready for a new start. Maximizing the offense is the way to win in the NFL in 2023, and "maximizing the offense" and "Sean McDermott" are just two things that I don't think can realistically co-exist for the Buffalo Bills. I'll always be thankful for what he did here, and I think he still has a lot to offer a young team in need of a reset -- the Carolina Panthers, say. But sometimes it's just time for a change. Unfortunately, I think the Bills have reached that point.