Logic

Elite viewing.

Ever since I watched the 2007 Giants go 10-6, claim a Wild Card spot, win three straight road playoff games, and then knock off the til-then undefeated Patriots in the Super Bowl, I'll always feel the same way: Just get into the "second season", and anything can happen. PARTICULARLY when you have a team that's fourth in the league in point differential with top ten scoring offense and defense and an elite QB. Besides, who scares you in the AFC? Who would you say these Bills -- if they play as well as they did against Miami and Vegas and the second Jets game -- absolutely CAN'T beat? The Chiefs? The Ravens? The Browns? The Texans or Jags? Just get into the dance and let the cards fall where they may.

Doot it is. Now we've got a Slime, a Groot, and a Doot. Hey, I don't make the rules.

I won't quibble with or dispute anything you say here, EXCEPT to say this: Beane's drafting acumen is exactly what we're talking about here. If he and his scouts weren't able to identify Justin Jefferson as a potential bona fide #1 NFL wide receiver, that can only go AGAINST him in the discussion about how good of a drafter he is. I realize he wasn't the only one. Multiple teams and analysts and fans missed, and hindsight is 20/20. I'm only saying that it's Beane and his draft scouts' JOB to look at prospects and determine their ability to be good players in the NFL. If they studied Jefferson and decided that he wasn't worth the pick and that they should instead use it (plus other capital, plus a bunch of money on an eventual contract extension) to get Diggs instead, then I can only see that as at least a minor indictment on Beane as a drafter. Again, I fully understand WHY the Bills traded for Diggs instead, I fully understand that the draft is a crapshoot, and I have no problem with the trade as it happened. I view it as the rare true win-win for both teams, as far as NFL trades go. Vikes got to start fresh and wound up with a top 3 stud WR. Bills got a leader, alpha, and elite veteran receiver who helped up their QB's game and produce some historic offensive output. But if "ability to draft" is what's being discussed, then in my opinion, Beane should be dinged a little bit for getting the older, more expensive guy, rather than having identified Jefferson as a guy worth drafting and developing. EDIT: Ironically, this same thinking can be applied to the Mahomes trade, which happened before Beane arrived. Yes, the outcome was ultimately good for the Bills: they wound up with Tre'Davious White and ultimately wound up with a great one in Josh Allen. It doesn't change the fact that they traded away the pick that was used to take the guy who may go down as the greatest quarterback to ever play football. A positive outcome from a traded pick doesn't completely erase the consideration of the player that was taken with that pick instead and how that player would have impacted the Bills had the pick not been traded, in my estimation. Boy that was a mouthful.

I didn't wanna say it and steal your thunder. I ALMOST said it, but I just respect you too much to do you like that.

He would make sense if and only if he's willing to sign a cheap one year deal. There's no spot for him long term, as Milano and Bernard will be the locked in starting duo. Further, he's NOT the Shaq Leonard of old that people are picturing. He's really not. The Colts wouldn't have released him outright if he was. At this point, he'd have to be a Leonard Fournette type situation. Sign to to the practice squad for cheap, MAYBE get called up at some point this season. Nothing more.

But if our starting nickel is out, it hurts us big time. There's a big dropoff from Taron Johnson to Siran Neal or Cam Lewis. And if Dane Jackson misses the game, then the Bills are one injury away from 35 year old Josh Norman lining up against AJ Brown or Devonta Smith. Here's hoping our secondary can get right in time for this matchup. We're gonna need every one of them.

So much remains unknown with that. We don't know if Hyde, Rapp, Johnson, or Jackson will play. Hyde and Johnson would be the biggest losses, of course, but missing any of them will hurt a bit.

I get what you're saying, but... The Bills have not lost a game by more than six points all year. There has not been a single game in which they were completely blown off the field. They also boast the NFL's 4th best point differential, a full 41 points AHEAD of the Eagles. And just for good measure, Vegas agrees with the "very winnable" judgement, as evidenced by the Bills being only 3.5 point underdogs despite playing in Philly. Bear in mind that home field is generally thought to be worth three points in betting, meaning that Vegas considers the Eagles to have only a half point advantage over the Bills. Very winnable game.

From an emotional and momentum standpoint, a win would be huge for the Bills. From a playoff seeding standpoint, this is one of the two remaining games that the Bills can most afford to lose. The Bills REALLY need some wins vs AFC opponents. I'm sure someone will take what I'm saying the wrong way. Obviously the Bills need all the wins they can get. I'm just saying this game is not, strictly speaking, a "must win" game". The Chiefs, Chargers, Dolphins, and Pats games are.

The Lions remain the only franchise I can think of whose ineptitude led to not one but TWO Hall of Fame, all time great players retiring earlier than they should have. Barry Sanders and Calvin Johnson. I know the Lions' failures weren't the ONLY reasons these guys retired, but they certainly contributed greatly to both players' decisions. I can only wonder what Barry Sanders would look like in today's era of wide open offense.

Excellent post! I hadn't thought of that at all, to be honest. Great, great point. Thanks.

I hate it. There's a reason that the NFL is hugely popular and makes billions of dollars in America in rugby is not and does not. Groups of players pushing another player into a pile with brute force, while the opposition all try to slam their body into a tiny phone booth sized space to stop said player, is not representative of what makes modern pro football great. Yes, the NFL features two teams competing against each other via feats of sheer force, but that force is skillfully paired with scheme, tactics, athleticism, creativity, and finesse. A pile of guys pushing one guy into another pile of guys is none of those things. It's an ugly play, it's not representative of what makes modern pro football great and exciting and aesthetically pleasing, and I wish it would be banned entirely. It actually USED TO be banned, for safety and aesthetics reasons, and only fairly recently became legal again. They should re-ban it, in my opinion, and nothing will change my mind on that. As to "how to stop it"? You can't. Maybe 1 out of 20 tries you'll get lucky. It's pretty much unstoppable.

If the Bills team we saw against the Jets (second game), Dolphins, and Raiders shows up, they absolutely have a good shot at beating the Eagles. If the Bills team we saw all the other weeks of this season shows up, things could get ugly. I'm an optimist, so I choose to believe that the former will happen. The Eagles are due for a second loss, are playing on a short week, and the Bills' backs are against the wall. Go upset the Eagles, go into the bye week on a two-game win streak, and suddenly your whole season looks completely different.

The quote, the fresh haircut, the vigorous post-TD celebrations, particularly with Shakir... It's safe to say Josh might be feeling good this week. As Josh goes, the Bills go, so...

I don't disagree that the players are largely to blame for the offensive struggles this season. However, I've said it before and I'll keep going back to it: When MULTIPLE players on offense are committing inexcusable turnovers week after week -- are looking sloppy, executing poorly, and exhibiting poor ball security -- I believe it's still an indictment on the offensive coordinator. McDermott has said that he likes to let his coordinators completely run their side of the ball. So if Ken Dorsey was the ultimate offensive boss, then it was his job to preach ball security, to emphasize attention to detail, and ultimately, to get his team ready to play on Sundays. Videos I saw online this week of Joe Brady's first practices as OC showed him running routes with the WRs, doing ball security drills with the QBs using a jousting stick type implement -- in short, he was being a hands-on coach, and he was attacking the areas in which the Bills have struggled. Now maybe Dorsey was doing these things, too, though I didn't see a single video online all season of him being hands-on in this way in practice. Furthermore, McDermott's recent comments about "doing things the right way in the margins" on offense certainly seemed to suggest that he was not happy with some of the NON-playcalling aspects of Dorsey's performance. It would be unreasonable to COMPLETELY blame an offensive coordinator for the failures of his players on Sundays. But it would be just as unreasonable, in my opinion, to completely dismiss his role in those failures, particularly when they haven't been a big issue with many of these same players in past seasons.

That's fair, Alpha, and I don't disagree that acquiring a player using a draft pick should count the same as drafting him, more or less. The only nit I would pick is that the 1st round pick used to get Stefon Diggs was ultimately used to pick Justin Jefferson, who is arguably the best WR in the league, and is still just 24 years old. So the Bills would have had arguably a better (or, at the minimum, just as good) receiver, who's 5 years younger. They would have had him on a rookie contract for four to five seasons, freeing up the big bucks during those years that were allocated to Diggs. I know, I know: Diggs has been a culture builder and team leader, and has brought out the best in Josh, and we can't be sure that Jefferson would have done any of those things, etc, etc...I understand all of that. Still, I can't help but wonder what a Josh Allen to Justin Jefferson connection could have looked like for 15 or so years. Could have been a historically great QB-WR connection. So yes, I believe it's fair to count trades that Beane made using draft picks in his favor, but only if one also considers who was picked in the spot he traded out of. And in this case, the player picked in the spot he traded out of takes a little bit of the shine off of his trade.

Well said. I forget which Bills reporter/talking head said it (Sal? Buscaglia? Bruce Nolan on Twitter?) but Brandon Beane hits lots of singles and doubles, but rarely any home runs. He doesn't strike out often either, and that's why he still keeps getting more at-bats. Kincaid and Bernard are starting to look like potential home runs. Torrence, Cook, and Benford (particularly given how late he was drafted) are starting to look like they could at least be in that conversation, as well.

Another rough look for the "Dorsey wasn't the problem" crowd. I mean...it COULD just be a coincidence that the Bills score 32 on a great Jets D and Josh shouts "I feel like I'm $@#%ing back!" the very first week without Dorsey at the helm. Or, ya know...

Sure, but the pre-snap motion that I mentioned is also a nice little added touch that the Bills' and Giants' versions did not feature.

Yep. Shanahan's version is eeeever so slightly better, due to the motion of McCaffrey several steps in the opposite direction of where he'd be running his route. Giants ran this play yesterday, too. It didn't look as pretty as when the Bills or 9ers did it, but it did score a touchdown.

Hoping for a game that goes down to the last 3 seconds of overtime, with the Eagles winning and both teams coming out exhausted. Oh and I want D'Andre Swift and Travis Kelce to have great games for....reasons.

Thanks for the nice writeup. Just wanted to say one thing in response that kind of ties these three bullet points together: If the Bills can't find their way to 10 wins and a playoff spot, then they -- just like the Jets -- will have wasted a division-winning roster of talent. From the vastly improved OL, to the young offensive playmakers stepping up, to Josh Allen having a very good year (despite all the talk over his facial expressions and the tone of his voice in interviews) to, most especially, this beast of a defensive line. Injuries or not, if the Bills can't find their way into the postseason with THIS cast of players, it will represent an absolute criminal waste of talent. I hope the Bills can do just what you say and win one of the next two (preferably the Chiefs game, for seeding reasons) and then handle business in the other games. If the Bills CAN get into the postseason? With this defensive line, potentially a Von Miller returning to effectiveness, potentially a Daquan Jones returning to the field, with the adversity they will have overcome to get there....I wouldn't want to have to face them. Lots has to happen before any of that can become a consideration. Let's see how they look in Philly and KC.

Pretty crazy that Edmunds is in his 6th year and is still just 25 years old. Unfortunately, like his "physical freak who got drafted really young" predecessor Amobi Okoye, he never quite became the player that his physical talents suggested he had the potential to become. Ya win some, ya lose some. Luckily for the Bills, Brandon Beane and his scouts were right on Terrel "too small to play linebacker, looks more like a safety, total waste of a draft pick" Bernard, and here we are.

I think that the thing that encouraged me most was the ease with which the Bills moved the ball against the Jets defense. As you say, they didn't come away with enough touchdowns early on. However, even moving the ball into field goal range repeatedly instead of having herky-jerky three-and-outs represents a marked improvement not only over recent weeks, but over the past several outings against the Jets, too. Even when the Bills offense has been firing on all cylinders in past meetings, they have usually been stymied by the Jets defense. So THIS particular performance against THIS particular opponent was encouraging to me. I read that it's the most points the Jets have given up in two years. That's impressive. Their defense is mostly healthy and was playing for its playoff life. Further, Josh Allen had 3 touchdowns and only one (forgivable, understandable, meaningless) turnover. THAT marks a huge improvement over his usual performances against the Jets, too. I listed the specifics of what I liked on offense in the post-game thread today: logical game planning to attack the Jets' few defensive weaknesses, getting the running backs involved in the passing game, targeting the middle of the field, being less predictable, getting plays into the huddle quickly so the offense got to the line with lots of time on the clock, and involving youngsters like Cook, Kincaid, Shakir, and even Ty Johnson. There was also the intangible thing of the Bills having fun and Josh Allen looking like the excitable Josh Allen of old. Like you say, time will tell whether that newfound energy is here to stay. Most of all, I came away thinking: this is the first time in a while that I was bored the whole 4th quarter, because the Bills clearly had the game well in hand. This is the first time in a while that I spent the last 10 minutes of the game clock watching Kyle Allen take snaps, rather than Josh Allen try to rally the Bills from behind. THAT felt like a huge improvement and a sigh of relief. Good game against a mediocre opponent but a great defense. Now the toughest of all possible challenges: Facing last year's Super Bowl participants on the road, first in hostile Philly, then in loud Arrowhead. No small feat. Great first outing for Brady though, I thought. Baby steps in some areas, giant leaps in others. Let's keep it rolling.