Logic

(Don't forget the Sharon Tate house!)

He leaves behind a complex legacy. On the one hand, he broke the agreement that all of the territories had, put a lot of people out of business, and singlehandedly killed the territory system. His system of paying the wrestlers as personal contractors -- thus denying health care and other workers' rights -- and having them out on the road for 300 dates a year (and yes, I realize no one forced the wrestlers to do this) have contributed to the untimely deaths of many men. On the other hand, he brought unprecedented fame and mainstream attention to professional wrestling, made a lot of people a lot of money, and created a billion dollar empire. As a businessman, visionary, and promotor, he is/was a genius. As a person, things are a lot more complicated. In any case, most of us who love professional wrestling (or ever loved it in the past) would likely not have had that opportunity had it not been for Vince. So thanks, Mr McMahon, and happy trails. I'll be interested to see what Stephanie and Paul do with the company now.

No argument here. I think the Bills will be fine in the long term with regard to the offensive coordinator change, but I expect there to be an adjustment period coming out of the gates. That period will happen to coincide with the toughest part of the schedule. I could see either the Ravens or Chiefs games being a win instead of a loss, in which case the Bills wind up 13-4, and that may be good enough for a first round bye, particularly considering what dogfights the three other AFC divisions appear to be.

The first six weeks of the Bills schedule are tough. The team will also be adapting to a new offensive playcaller, adding to the challenge. I see it like this: @ Rams L Titans W @ Dolphins W @ Ravens L Steelers W @ Chiefs L 3-3 to start the season. After the Bye week, however, I see them going 9-2 to finish 12-5 and win the East.

That doesn't say anything about the LOCAL support, though. LA is a popular destination for opposing fans to go to see games. Obviously, the league doesn't care WHO is in the seats, so long as the tickets are being bought. Just pointing out that sold out games don't necessarily equal hardy local fan support.

Allen is certainly the exception rather than the rule. And it certainly wasn't a crazy idea to pick Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield -- two guys with quality production in tough conferences -- ahead of Allen. That said, picking Allen first also wasn't a completely crazy notion with no chance of happening. There were rumors leading all the way up to the morning of the draft that the Browns were down to either Mayfield or Allen, and there were even reports that they were leaning Allen. Mel Kiper had Allen ranked as his number one quarterback. Drafting a quarterback is such a career shaping thing for a GM. John Dorsey drafted the wrong one.

Funny, isn't it? If football genius John Dorsey had simply listened to Megan Schuster, a reporter no one has ever heard of, the Browns would have Josh Allen right now. It's not as if "roll the dice on elite traits since drafting QBs is a crapshoot anyway" is so radical a theory.

So let's recap: "Sure thing" Baker Mayfield was traded to Carolina to battle against "sure thing" Sam Darnold, who himself was also traded. To temporarily replace Mayfield, the Browns just signed "sure thing" Josh Rosen, who is on his fourth team. Meanwhile, "wide receiver" Lamar Jackson has already won a league MVP award and Josh "parody of a quarterback prospect" Allen is a superstar whose team is favored to win the Super Bowl this year. This seems like a good time to have a chuckle at an article written by professional sports journalists in 2018 about that year's quarterback class. I'll post some highlights that I enjoyed. [Note: I've always espoused Danny Kelly's "good names" idea when it comes to quarterbacks. Looks like this theory was correct once again.] https://www.theringer.com/nfl/2018/4/26/17281910/draft-quarterback-rankings-baker-mayfield-josh-allen-sam-darnold The 2018 NFL draft has arrived, and one question transcends the rest: Who is the best quarterback in this year’s class? Is it Baker Mayfield, the Oklahoma star who torched defenses en route to winning the Heisman Trophy? Is it Sam Darnold, the USC standout who’s been linked to the Browns for months? Is it Josh Allen, the Wyoming product whose arm strength is otherworldly but whose accuracy remains iffy at best? Twelve Ringer staffers agreed to list their top five options to be recorded for posterity. For more NFL draft coverage, check out our features, columns, and videos published in the lead-up to the first round. Danny Kelly: 1. Josh Allen 2. Lamar Jackson 3. Mason Rudolph 4. Sam Darnold 5. Josh Rosen There are plenty of traits that a quarterback prospect needs in order to succeed at the most difficult position in sports, but scientifically speaking, signal-callers with strong, quarterbacky names have a distinct advantage in the NFL. I’ll even take it a step further: Passers with two first names have basically zero chance of failure. Tom Brady. Jim Kelly. Matt Ryan. Russell Wilson. David Garrard. Otto Graham. Lynn Dickey. Michael Vic(k). Aaron Rodger … s. Uh, Andy Dalton? Tyrod Taylor. Deshaun Watson. Brian Drew. (I’m counting him.) Joe Kane. (I’m counting him, too.) If you’re reaching, Philip Rivers. (That one guy from Weezer is named Rivers, look it up.) Sam Bradford. Robert Griffin III. (Injuries derailed his career, not his name.) Following this unassailable logic, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Mason Rudolph are all guaranteed to be future Pro Bowlers. Sam Darnold is one letter away from the Hall of Fame. Baker Mayfield is screwed. Rodger Sherman: 1. Baker Mayfield 2. Lamar Jackson 3. Sam Darnold 4. Josh Rosen 5. Mason Rudolph Personally, I think it’s bad that Josh Allen doesn’t know how to throw footballs to other football players. Megan Schuster: 1. Josh Allen 2. Baker Mayfield 3. Sam Darnold 4. Lamar Jackson 5. Josh Rosen Let me preface this by saying: I know Josh Allen’s stats. You don’t need to tweet them at me, or email them to me, or send them to my home. I know that, for a projected first-round pick, he had a historically bad completion percentage in college. I know that he’d have one of the lowest QBASE scores ever given to a first-rounder, and I know that expecting him to hit it big in the league is, as my colleague Ryan O’Hanlon wrote, a football fantasy. But does that mean we can’t dream? Can’t fantasize about a guy with THIS FREAKING ARM actually succeeding in the NFL??? Sure, the chances of Allen folding in the pros are much higher than the chances of him getting drafted into a good system, fixing his accuracy issues, and emerging as an elite-level passer. But the odds are long for virtually every quarterback entering the league. Why not roll the dice and take a chance on a guy who could have a once-in-a-generation arm? Especially if you’re the Browns— what do you really have to lose? Danny Heifetz: 1. Josh Rosen 2. Baker Mayfield 3. Lamar Jackson 4. Sam Darnold 5. Kyle Lauletta Things I believe: Darnold’s footwork will be an issue early in his career, Baker and Lamar will finish no. 1 and no. 2 in Rookie of the Year voting as long as they start at least 12 games this fall, Richmond’s Kyle Lauletta will be a starter by his second contract, Rosen and Baker’s “attitude issues” will be considered “leadership qualities” two seasons from now, and Rosen will be the first white NFL MVP to speak passionately about racial injustice. Things I do not believe: The Browns can teach Josh Allen how to competently play quarterback in the NFL. Andrew Gruttadaro: 1. Josh Rosen 2. Lamar Jackson 3. Sam Darnold 4. Baker Mayfield 5. Josh Allen As a Bills fan, I look at these five guys and have to ask myself one question: “Who is most reminiscent of J.P. Losman and EJ Manuel?” Those are the past two quarterbacks the Bills drafted in the first round, and both are total trash. I’m not sure Manuel ever threw for more than 200 yards in a game, and there’s a Losman video on YouTube titled “J.P. Losman makes several costly mistakes.” I’m fairly certain Buffalo is going to take a QB on Thursday, and I’m equally certain that it will trade away a bunch of draft capital to do so. All that matters is that the player the Bills pick doesn’t remind me of J.P. Losman or EJ Manuel. Let’s start with Allen. This guy has Losman written all over him. Both are from smaller schools, both have big arms, and both had ***** college completion percentages. I’m dying for the Browns or Jets to pick him. As for Mayfield, in general I believe in him. And maybe if he fell to no. 12, the chip on his shoulder would grow even bigger and that’d propel him to success. But this dude would not make it in Buffalo. He needs a spotlight, not a lifetime gift card to the Mighty Taco in Cheektowaga. He’d crash his Porsche into people quicker than Marshawn Lynch did. I don’t know why, but Darnold’s big dumb face worries me. J.P. had one of those, too. And my personal fear with Jackson is that he’s a better version of Tyrod Taylor, and the Bills just bounced that dude out of town without ever trying to game plan around him. Lamar Jackson feels like a guy who will dominate wherever he gets picked— unless he gets picked by the Bills. Then there’s Josh Rosen. Yeah, bring him to me. Zach Schwartz: 1. Josh Rosen 2. Baker Mayfield 3. Sam Darnold 4. Mason Rudolph 5. Lamar Jackson Michael Baumann: 1. Lamar Jackson 2. Baker Mayfield 3. Josh Rosen 4. Mason Rudolph 5. John McEntee (the former UConn trick-shot quarterback turned Trump body man who looks like a skinny Patrick Reed and got fired for “serious financial crimes,” which is like getting fired by Blackbeard the pirate for drinking and stealing) Paolo Uggetti: 1. Josh Rosen 2. Lamar Jackson 3. Sam Darnold 4. Baker Mayfield 5. Mason Rudolph 6. That guy from Wyoming Jack McCluskey: 1. Baker Mayfield 2. Lamar Jackson 3. Sam Darnold 4. Josh Rosen 5. Anyone else Not Rated. Josh Allen

NFL wide - Baltimore will win the AFC North - Las Vegas will win the AFC West - The Colts will win the AFC South - The Patriots will not make the playoffs - Three AFC West teams will make the playoffs - Kyler Murray will win league MVP - Saquon Barkley will have over 2000 yards from scrimmage - Tyreek Hill will get frustrated in Miami and become a headache for the Dolphins - Ryan Tannehill will have some bad games, leading to calls for Malik Willis, who will play meaningful snaps this year - Tom Brady will lead the Buccaneers to a Super Bowl victory and will retire after the season, going out on top and causing us all to vomit all over the living room one last time. Bills specific - The Bills will start the season 3-3, but will go 9-2 the rest of the way, finishing at 12-5 and winning the AFC East - Ed Oliver will have a career season and earn his first Pro Bowl trip - Gabriel Davis will silence all doubters, posting over 1,000 receiving yards and leading the team in touchdown receptions - Jamison Crowder will spend the majority of the year as the starting slot receiver, but will cede more and more snaps to Khalil Shakir as the season wears on - Tavon Austin will make the roster and contribute meaningfully on offense and special teams - Terrel Bernard will have a bigger than expected impact on defense - Similar to last year, Von Miller will record "just" 9 regular season sacks, but will make a serious impact in the playoffs - The Bills will lose a playoff game that they should win, leading to an offseason of heated "should we fire McDermott?!" debate

I'll post my own in a moment, but I just wanted to say that this is quite the bold prediction, indeed! I like it. Side tangent: It was so weird that Byrd was consistently an All-Pro caliber player for the Bills, and then once he left, he just sort of quietly faded away, never again recording more than 2 INTs or 1 FF in any given season. Out of the league by the time he was 31. So strange. Were there some serious injury troubles that I'm not remembering? It goes to show that scheme fit and surrounding talent are often key to a player's success.

Indeed, "Gugny" was a brunette lady that day. Must've been Mrs Cletus. The fact that it wasn't really Gugny short-circuited my already socially challenged brain, and I couldn't recover well enough to carry on conversing with her. 😆 I definitely don't remember meeting you, though I certainly had some conversations with either non-tagged people or people whose names I didn't recognize. You sly dog, you! Apparently, I should take name tags with a large grain of salt at the next TBDAHOT

Thanks. Exactly the example I was thinking of. Anderson also had 4 Pro Bowls and 1 All-Pro to Bradshaw's 3 Pro Bowls and 1 All-Pro. It all comes down to record and championships. Bradshaw was 107-51 in his career, with 4 titles. Anderson was 91-81 in his career, with 0 titles. If you believe that "QB wins" are a thing, then Bradshaw's HOF selection makes sense. If you believe, as I do, that "QB wins" are not a thing, then Bradshaw's inclusion and Anderson's omission make absolutely no sense.

Is it just me, or do Beane's contracts frequently look like amazing values about two years into them? I know that part of it is just the nature of the market. The "highest paid at his position" at the time of signing quickly becomes the sixth highest paid as other players sign deals. Still, the value I see in Beane's contracts seems to go beyond that. Whatever he may lack in pure player evaluation, he sure seems to make up for in shrewd contract maneuvering. Credit also to former Bills fan punching bag turned afterthought Jim Overdorf, who Beane says plays a big part in the specifics of the deals.

Murray be celebratin today!

The REAL question is.... Have they considered using Taron Johnson at outside WR in order to bolster the concerning lack of depth there?

This. Take him off that Steelers team with the Steel Curtain carrying him to the Super Bowl every year. Put him on any run of the mill team from those years. Give him the same exact stats otherwise. He wouldn't make the Hall of Fame. 51% Career completion percentage. 212 TDs, 210 INTs. Yes, I realize it was a totally different era in terms of QB stats and expectations. Don't care. Bradshaw was lucky to be the quarterback/care taker on a team with a Hall of Fame defense and head coach. Totally overrated, and a total blowhard to boot.

Well? Did ya bite the bullet?

I don't know if it'll be much fun to use the Bills in Madden this year, given the concerning lack of depth at outside WR.

One thing I don't think anyone has mentioned yet: Josh Allen shouldn't be completely absolved of blame for the lack of YAC in the Bills passing game. A big part of it is scheme, yes. Another big part of it is Josh's love of throwing intermediate and deep and his hesitance -- sometimes seemingly bordering on disdain -- for checking down. That's not all of it, though. He also, for all the strides he's made in the accuracy department, doesn't always place the ball in such a way that his receivers are set up for YAC success. A few inches in ball location can be the difference between catching the ball and getting instantly tackled or catching the ball on the move and picking up another 10 yards. This isn't just me saying this, mind you. Josh himself has been saying for two offseasons in a row now that he's working on putting the ball in a place that allows his receivers gain YAC: “I think, myself especially, making sure I’m on time, making the right reads and giving our guys good enough balls to get some more [yards after the catch]. That’s one thing I think, on offense, run after catch was wasn’t very high last year. But again, that’s me putting the ball where it needs to be and allow our guys to catch in a good position to make a run after the catch. So working on that, that’s been one of my biggest takeaways in this offseason and trying to work on just ball placement and allowing our receivers to do that.”

Not a huge concert summer for me, as I'm still recovering from some health issues, and only feel comfortable seeing shows outdoors. Dark Star Orchestra in Bend, OR on July 30th. Seeing a few shows at Edgefield in Portland, Oregon. A great, small, intimate, outdoor venue. Billy Strings in August. Ben Harper in September. And just grabbed two tickets this morning to see the Trey Anastasio Band in September. I'm not actually a Phish fan at all really, but I've seen Trey play outside of Phish before (once with Dave Matthews, once at the Grateful Dead Fare Thee Well shows) and I certainly enjoy his playing, even if I don't enjoy his main day job. The Trey Band seems to have a great horn section and some high quality musicianship overall. I'm rolling the dice on it being an awesome time, despite my non Phish fandom.

Does he, though? 😝

Because you have a big, wet brain.

This article -- which ESPN does every year, and which ranks NFL team's prospects for success over the next three years -- is behind a paywall, but you're able to read far enough into it to see that the Bills are ranked number one. I'll copy and paste as much as it will allow me to. Just thought this was interesting, particularly because there are a few people here who swear that Brandon Beane is mediocre and just "lucked out" with Josh Allen. https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/34262543/nfl-future-power-rankings-2022-projections-all-32-teams-next-three-seasons Projecting ahead and building for future success -- beyond just the current season -- is crucial in the NFL. That's what the best teams all do to stay at the top of the standings. So which teams are best set up to pile up wins and show steady improvement over the next few years? To project which NFL franchises are in the best shape for the next three seasons (2022 through 2024), we asked our panel of experts -- Jeremy Fowler, Louis Riddick, Seth Walder and Field Yates -- to rate each team's quarterback situation, remaining (non-QB) roster, drafting ability, front office and coaching using this scale: 100: A+ (Elite) 90: A (Great) 80: B (Very good) 70: C (Average) 60: D (Very bad) 50 and below: F (Disastrous) After averaging the results from the panelists, each of the five categories was weighted to create the overall score: roster (30%), quarterback (20%), draft (15%), front office (15%) and coaching (20%). The result is a comprehensive ranking based on how well each team is positioned for the future. Our experts dove in on additional analysis for all 32 teams, hitting on biggest worries, stats to know and what could change in upcoming years, along with why each team landed where it did on the ranking. 1. Buffalo Bills Overall score: 90.4 Category NFL Rank Overall roster (minus QB) 91.0 1 Quarterback 95.0 2 Coaching 87.8 7 Draft 83.0 6 Front office 94.0 1 Why they're here: Brandon Beane has executed a masterclass in roster building since becoming the Bills' general manager in 2017. The foundation of this roster has been built via the draft, but we've also seen calculated swings in both free agency and trades -- most prominently to land receiver Stefon Diggs. The roster is loaded, head coach Sean McDermott is outstanding, and the Bills are poised for a major step forward this year. -- Yates Biggest worry: The concern last year was about the pass rush, and whether rookies Greg Rousseau and Boogie Basham could step up and provide a timely boost when the team needed it the most. Although the Bills finished 11th in total sacks and sixth in pass rush win rate, Buffalo's defense was unable to get off the field when it needed to late in the playoff game loss to the Chiefs. What does it all mean? For Buffalo to get over the hump, it needs its defense -- both the front and the coverage -- to deliver when it matters the most. And it remains to be seen if it can. -- Riddick What could change for the better: Buffalo must elevate the offense with a revamped running game. Quarterback Josh Allen is a great runner but has taken plenty of hits after 422 rushes over four years. Drafting James Cook and signing Duke Johnson should aid the quick passing game by creating favorable matchups out of the backfield. Veterans Devin Singletary and Zack Moss provide stability, too. Then on defense, the Bills have tough contractual decisions to make on 2023 free agents Tremaine Edmunds and Jordan Poyer. -- Fowler

At the TBD tailgate a couple seasons back, there was a woman wearing a nametag that said Gugny. Not having ever met Gugny in real life, I just assumed that this person was, in fact, Gugny. I walked up and introduced myself and told "Gugny" that I was a fan of "her" posts. She just broke out laughing and said "I'm not Gugny!". I actually don't remember who this person was or why she had on the false nametag, but it was a weird and funny moment. I just gave up on introducing myself to people and went back to hovering awkwardly by Mead's stromboli cooker instead.