
oldmanfan
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Applying them does not mean anything. You obsess on completion percentage. Statisticians would tell you that you would need to use multivariate analysis to truly understand if the 1 or 2 pass completion difference that constitutes a difference between 55 and 60% means squat. Let's list just a few of the variables: Types of passes thrown i.e. Short dump offs vs. down the field Quality of receiving corps Quality of O line (do you have to throw more balls away due to poor protection) QB experience (yes experience counts) Playing conditions (effect of more windy conditions vs. a dome let's say) Defensive schemes and personnel you play against And so on. And those same variables do NOT apply to every QB. Well, in a sense they do. But they are not equal. They are, guess what, variable. And as such have to be accounted for in any proper comparison. Accuracy is being consistently around your target, and I have explained that many confuse it with precision. The other thing you have to understand here is that you have no idea what in in the QBs mind when he throws a ball. Take the missed TD/apparent misread with Zay. That was added to the incompletion, but if it was expecting Jones to be at point X when Jones thought point Y, has nothing to do with accuracy. In fact the pass was very accurate; Allen put it right where he thought Jones was supposed to be. So there's your one pass a game that makes your magical difference. And it means nothing. So just stop with this stuff. Allen is a young guy, a rookie QB. He has to get better at a lot of things like reading defenses, staying in the pocket, dumping off when indicated, etc. But let's just stop regurgitating this completion percentage/accuracy thing.
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THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Bills Still Have A Lot to Work On
oldmanfan replied to Shaw66's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Great stuff as always. Disagree on the last pass; you have both hands on the ball you have to catch it plus if Allen made a rookie mistake what do you call a veteran not working back to his QB? But you have to like the kid's future. And nice point about penalties. Yeah some younger players but that's where coaching needs to step up. -
OK. I'll Say It-Allen will be best Bills QB ever
oldmanfan replied to beacon's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
An interesting discussion to be sure -
Bills have released Kelvin Benjamin and Andre Holmes
oldmanfan replied to YoloinOhio's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Bold move but completely justified. -
OK. I'll Say It-Allen will be best Bills QB ever
oldmanfan replied to beacon's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Because it's a chat room. So we chat. I like Allen a lot and think he's our long term guy. But say hi to John Elway. Steve Young also sends his regards. -
OK. I'll Say It-Allen will be best Bills QB ever
oldmanfan replied to beacon's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
No. Like what I see so far, but if you look at the HOF out of hundreds of guys who have played QB in the NFL there are roughly 30 that made the grade. And we had one of them. Allen may have a very long and successful career, maybe even HOF worthy. But no way you say he's going to be better than Kelly at this point. -
Thoughts on Allen Pre Injury vs Post
oldmanfan replied to corta765's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I think you've done a very fair assessment. Clearly he has a ways to go, as do all the rookie Qbs, but you have to be encouraged by what you've seen the last two weeks. -
They may be looking to add something at that position in the draft. A very strong defensive draft so getting a edge rusher in round 1 would be a good use of a pick. Murphy I can go either way given what they get in the draft; Lawson has had a pretty good year, Yarborough is a solid rotational guy. And to the OP: McD has done exactly the opposite of losing the locker room. You have no clue and your rants are ridiculous at this point.
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Is Josh Allen faster than Tyrod Taylor???
oldmanfan replied to Mac14's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I'd put money down on Taylor in a 40 yard dash. -
I explained the math about completion percentage. You throw 30 passes in a game it's 1.5 passes different between 60% and 55%. Those are factual mathematics and statistically meaningless. You continue to make grand criticisms based on nothing factual. Young QBs need to develop. We all know that. Except for you apparently.
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Allen's Last Pass (12/2): Bad Pass or Drop?
oldmanfan replied to Gugny's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I remember my pee wee coach telling us that if you get your hands on it you should catch it -
Posted in another thread but also belongs here: People confuse the concept of accuracy with that of precision. The classic example of this is throwing darts at a dartboard. Let's say you aim at the bulls eye and keep hitting the inner 10 ring. Hit it the same spot every time. You're very, very precise but you're not accurate. Now, let's say you didn't hit the bulls eye but you surround it pretty closely with all your darts. Now you're very accurate, but not precise. When people critique accuracy they really are critiquing precision. Can you stick the ball exactly in the same spot every time? I think there are very few QB that are incredibly precise. Most good ones are really accurate; the ball is always within the receiver's catch radius. And ideally of course you want high precision AND high accuracy. But that's very rare. Now, can you teach accuracy? Obviously yes or guys like Brady wouldn't go back to his coaches and work on drills every off season. Muscle memory helps in any athletic endeavor, whether it be throwing a football or baseball, kicking a soccer ball, golf swing, shooting free throws. As a QB it may take more as you would have to maintain that with large humans gunning for you, but it certainly can be worked on and improved 1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said: But it isn’t. He literally has never been like a 55% passer his whole career. It matters whether you think so or not. Those 5 passes missed can be the difference between Ws and Ls. In todays nfl, if you aren’t a 60% passer, you aren’t a starting level qb. Allen is a Rookie on a bad offense so he gets pass. But it needs to get better. Math is not your strong suit. Let's say you throw 30 passes in a game. Complete 18 and it's 60%. Know what 55% is? Completing 16.5 passes. Or 1.5 passes less a game. So let's say you have everyone covered and throw one out of bounds so you don't take a sack. Or your WR drops one or runs a bad route. There's your difference between this supposed magical 60% vs. 55% completion percentage. And it has absolutely nothing, as in zero, to do with accuracy.
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Is football accuracy like shooting free throws?
oldmanfan replied to Virgil's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
People confuse the concept of accuracy with that of precision. The classic example of this is throwing darts at a dartboard. Let's say you aim at the bulls eye and keep hitting the inner 10 ring. Hit it the same spot every time. You're very, very precise but you're not accurate. Now, let's say you didn't hit the bulls eye but you surround it pretty closely with all your darts. Now you're very accurate, but not precise. When people critique accuracy they really are critiquing precision. Can you stick the ball exactly in the same spot every time? I think there are very few QB that are incredibly precise. Most good ones are really accurate; the ball is always within the receiver's catch radius. And ideally of course you want high precision AND high accuracy. But that's very rare. Now, can you teach accuracy? Obviously yes or guys like Brady wouldn't go back to his coaches and work on drills every off season. Muscle memory helps in any athletic endeavor, whether it be throwing a football or baseball, kicking a soccer ball, golf swing, shooting free throws. As a QB it may take more as you would have to maintain that with large humans gunning for you, but it certainly can be worked on and improved Math is not your strong suit. Let's say you throw 30 passes in a game. Complete 18 and it's 60%. Know what 55% is? Completing 16.5 passes. Or 1.5 passes less a game. So let's say you have everyone covered and throw one out of bounds so you don't take a sack. Or your WR drops one or runs a bad route. There's your difference between this supposed magical 60% vs. 55% completion percentage. And it has absolutely nothing, as in zero, to do with accuracy. -
We Are In Good Shape. Who Would You Dump Next Year?
oldmanfan replied to Irv's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Not cut just not resign -
Lawson is playing good football. Murphy has a contract that they can easily get out from this coming year if they want. And they gave up under 200 yards to the Fish yesterday.
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It's too early in the day to be drinking that much