BillsFan4

I am not so sure about that. Hes never been part of a front office drafting a RB in round 1 at all, let alone #1 overall. The highest pick hes invested himself on a RB as a GM is a 3rd rounder. He could view Barkley as the exception, but I think it's far from a guarantee.

Wow, that's it? A little surprised the Bills didn't offer 1 year, $5M or something. They must feel pretty good about getting their MLB in free agency or the draft, one who fits McD's defense better. Or they just didnt have much much interest in bringing Brown back. Here's FL linebacker salaries just for comparison - https://overthecap.com/position/linebacker/

Do you think that will get a move from 12 to 2 done? I would absolutely love it if it did! I'd be all over that trade but I'm just not sure that gets it done, especially now that the Jets set the market so ridiculously high. https://www.patspulpit.com/2017/4/23/15398184/2017-nfl-draft-creating-a-brand-new-nfl-draft-value-trade-chart According to the new draft value chart (which IIRC is the one you like to use) the trade you offered would be 793.48 points, and the #2 overall is worth 717.17. So maybe that does get it done. But the Jets set the market crazy high. Again, looking at the new draft value chart, the 3rd overall pick is worth 514.33. If all my math is correct, The Jets gave up 725.88 in picks this year, plus whatever you value their 2nd at next year. Say you value it as the 6th pick of the 3rd round (1 round lower than this year for it being a year out), it's worth 69.82. That would be 795.7 draft points given up for a pick worth 514.33. So they overpaid by 281.37. For the Bills to match that offer, they'd have to give up 998 draft points for the #2 pick (which is valued at 717.17) Their 6 picks in the first 3 rounds are worth a total of 921.13. That leaves another 76.87 points to make up to match the Jets offer (which probably means adding another 2nd next year, possibly even our 1st to make up the difference between moving from 12 to 2 ans falling out of the top 10 completely, (where as the Jets only moved from 6-3)). But just say a 2nd for arguments sake... If the Giants are looking for someone to match the Jets overpayment, we probably can't do it. Not unless Beane sacrifices his entire draft.

They wont be toast in my eyes. You can only control what you can control. There are so many different scenarios that can play out in the coming years. Not everything depends on trading everything away in this draft to get a QB - and I might add a QB draft that's strength lies in its depth. The Jets were desperate. From all the stories being written, Maccagnan basically had to land a top 4 QB this year. His job depended on it. They sold out and went all in on it over a year ago. Now they set the price so ridiculously high that the Bills may not be willing to match it. I can't blame Beane if he does not want to make such a massive overpayment in his very first ever draft as a GM. If he misses, or that player isn't a franchise changing talent, he's likely toast and never gets another GM job. Where as if he only trades up slightly or takes a shot at 12 in a deep QB draft, he's not putting ALL of his chips in already in his first ever draft. I dont see it as a free draft to move up either. The Bills are in year 1 of a rebuild with huge holes all over the team. They traded away numerous talented players to acquire all of these draft picks. They were by no means free, and they opened up more holes on this team. You trade away this whole draft (basically) to move up, you are betting everything on a rookie QB. If they stay out and use those picks to fill a bunch of holes, maybe it opens up a trade-up in the next couple years because you now have a more complete team and you can more easily gamble on giving away extra picks. Maybe you trade up for Drew Lock next year (who set an SEC record for TDs throw last season with a ridiculous 44 TD passes!) or some other QB who emerges. There was no Drew Lock in 2013, so I wouldn't call it an EJ type draft just yet. Look, I am still all for trading up if that's what the Bills choose to do. I just don't know if it's possible anymore. The Jets set a stupid high price, and we still have the Broncos ahead of us who may be willing to move up yet. When looking at the draft value charts and what the Jets gave up, To have any chance at trading to 2, you are easily looking at giving up the top 3 rounds of this draft (which is 5 top 65 picks and 6 in the top 90) plus a 1st or 2nd next year, maybe even more. Theres been lots of rumors going around that the Giants don't want to trade back out of the top of the draft, either. That they want a franchise changing talent from the top of this draft. So what can you do if the Giants aren't willing to trade back to 12? You can try to move up twice, but now we're talking even more picks. I want a franchise QB as bad as every Bills fan. I guarantee it. I haven't seen one in a Bills uniform since the days of Jim Kelly. It's been far too long. But that's not Brandon Beane's fault. He hasn't even had 1 draft with the Bills yet. I'm not going to burn him at the stake if he doesn't recklessly trade up in his first ever draft. Plus I still have hope that we can land our franchise guy at 12, or with a slight trade up the board. I don't think our ONLY chance is a top 2/3 QB from this draft. We could very well get a top 2 QB from this draft at 12.

Is that really fair to say? This is Beane & his front office/personnel/scouting staff's very first draft with the Bills. After a single draft, Can we really say that he is no better or different than the previous regime who were not aggressive in finding a QB in at least 4 years (and really the entire time Whaley was here starting in 2010)? Do you think most GM's are able to land their franchise QB in their very first draft with a new team? Another thought - how many GMs trade away the farm for a QB in their very first draft with a team? seems like a huge gamble to make very shortly into his tenure as a first time GM. Look, I want a franchise QB as much as everyone else here, I guarantee it. But I'm not going to write Beane off if he doesn't trade away his entire draft in year 1 of a rebuild, and his very first ever draft as a GM.

So there isn't anything they can do to get him games in the AHL without ruining his NCAA eligibility? You can only do that with Junior players then? That kinda sucks. It would have been a great test to see if he was ready to turn pro next season. I don't know why I thought you could do that with college players...

Great post! I agree. I havent had had faith in a front office and coaching staff in a LONG time like I do in this one. I have high hopes that they will get this thing right in the long run and build a team that's truly competitive year in and year out. And all I could keep thinking after the shock of the Jets trading up wore off - am I really That worried about what they do? Especially with their current ownership? The answer is no, I'm not. Even if/when they draft a top end QB prospect at 3, I have little faith that they will provide that QB with the coaching and other resources, as well as surround him with real talent throughout the rest of the team, that he needs to be truly successful in the long run. They may end up with a good QB who can help win them games, but I don't really have any fear of them becoming the next Brady/Patriots and taking over the division.

From what I've been able to gather, it actually sounds to me like Maccagnan's job already depended on getting one of the top 4 QBs this year anyway. I guess he sold Woody Johnson over a year ago on going all in and doing whatever it took to get one of the top 4 QBs in this draft class. https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/03/17/new-york-jets-trade-indianapolis-colts-third-pick-sam-darnold-josh-rosen-baker-mayfield-josh-allen Dont get a top 4 QB this year? Fired. Miss on your QB pick this year? Fired. So he really had nothing to lose. It's likely that the only way he keeps his job is to hit big on a QB this year. He could probably care less if he significantly overpaid to do it. Which, if that's the case, it makes him a hard man to out-big in a trade up. A GM who knows he's in danger of losing his job is probably much more willing to do something reckless than a GM who is comfortable in his job security.

They have definitely talked about a pocket passer multiple times. We really dont don't have much to go on yet though, since Beane hasn't had a single draft with the Bills. All we really know is this - - Beane supposedly went after Bradford, who is a pure pocket passer. - He went after McCarron, who isn't exactly mobile. He's known more as a pocket passer with accuracy and ball security. - He traded Tyrod - McDermott drafted Peterman last year who is not mobile. His strengths are said to be accuracy, getting the ball out quick, throwing with anticipation, going through progressions and reading defenses. Also supposedly being pro ready. So my best guess is they want more of an accurate pocket passer. But I really have no clue. Carolina did draft Newton, and both McDermott and Beane have been around mobile QBs a lot in their careers, so I could see it going either way. I said after the Peterman pick that I didn't have any idea if Peterman would turn out to be an NFL QB or not, but if those are the traits (accurate, throw with anticipation, read defenses, go through progressions etc) that they prioritize in a QB then I like their chances of eventually finding our franchise guy a lot more than I did under Whaley (when looking at what he seemed to prioritize in a QB).

Just because they may multiple picks in the 1st, 2nd and 3rd doesn't mean they will trade up. Maybe getting those extra picks was more about putting the Bills in a great position to be able to take a gamble on a QB in the 1st, in what is considered a deep QB class... They can easily spend a 1st on a QB this year without much risk, since they still have another 1st + two 2nds, two 3rds etc. Where as in years where they only have 1 pick per round, gambling a 1st on a QB is a bigger risk and maybe something they choose not to do. Or maybe instead of trading up they use 2 picks on 2 different QBs... (unlikely if they still like Peterman a lot, but who knows).

This is how I feel as well. The strength of this QB draft class is in its depth. There are at least 4-5, and maybe up to 6, potential 1st round QBs this year. I dont know know if I see the point in trading the farm for the 4th QB off the board, or even the 3rd... is the 3rd or 4th QB off the board this year 3 or 4 starting caliber players better than the 4th or 5th QB off the board (which is what it might cost to trade up - 3 or 4 prime picks)? It really only makes sense to me if you are trading to pick #2 and guaranteeing yourself one of the top 2 QBs. Even then it's a crap shoot. I guess it all all depends on how the Bills have these QBs rated. If there is a huge gap between their #1 or #2 QB and their #3/4 QB, then yeah maybe it makes sense to sell the farm for #2 overall. If the gap between their #2 and #3/4/5 QB is relatively small, it makes more sense to take their #4 QB and surround him with 3,4,5 potentially very good draft prospects.

It'll definitely be interesting to see what happens with Casey. IIRC I believe they can also give him an AHL tryout contract that doesn't ruin his NCAA eligibility, to see how he does there first before making a decision on his ELC. So I could definitely at least see that happening. Get him in some Rochester playoff games. He has some tantalyzing skill, but I'm not positive he's ready for the NHL yet. I think it comes down to more of whether or not the Sabres want him in the AHL next year or in college, and what Casey wants as well. He may prefer to stay in school if that's the case. While Mittelstadt did have an impressive college season, he was only at a 0.8 point per game pace. Clayton Keller was at a 1.5 ppg pace, and Eichel was at almost 1.8ppg. Casey could definitely still grow his game in school another year, so I won't be that surprised either way - if he stays in school, signs an AHL tryout or the Sabres decide to give him his ELC.

It's worth mentioning that trading up for the #4 QB in that 2004 draft costs the Bills the chance to draft Aaron Rodgers in 2005.... and its also also worth mentioning that the last time 3 QBs went off the board in the first 3 picks, 2 of them ended up being Tim Couch and Akili Smith! lol Seriously though, As I just said in another thread, I have no interest in selling the farm just to get any random one of the top 4 QBs in this draft. If the Bills can get their #1 or #2 ranked guy, then yes absolutely do it! But giving up a haul of picks to get their #4 rated QB on their draft board? Not so sure that'd be worth it. It's only worth it if the Bills have their #4 QB rated much higher than their #5 rated QB. If they are similarly ranked, I don't see where it makes sense to give up a haul of picks because if the Bills feel both players have similar chances of making it and/or hitting their ceiling, then 3 players is better than trading those 3 picks for 1 player.

If that is truly the case, maybe just forget about a big trade up then. The 4th QB off the board just isn't worth selling the farm for, unless the Browns are very reasonable in their request, or one of the Bills top 2 QBs falls to 4. But Trading up just to get their #4 ranked QB wouldn't really seem worth it to me, especially if the price was too high. I would guess the difference in the ranking between the Bills #4 and #5 QBs on their board wouldn't be worth giving up multiple picks for. If they see a huge huge difference between their 4th and 5th ranked QBs, then do it. If not, then there's probably not much reason.

The order QBs are drafted in is usually pretty hard to predict. Unless there are 1 or 2 clear cut can't miss QB prospects and not much after that (like in the Winston and Mariota draft, or Goff/Wentz). This year there really is no clear cut #1 rated QB. It looks to be a very deep QB draft and It seems to be a group of 3, 4 or even 5 that are at the top. So your guess is as good as mine... Although I think either Rosen or Allen go to the NYJ, and Mayfield to either Denver or Miami. That's my best guess as of now.

As I said in another thread, whether we trade up or not Beane and mcdermott have us in a great position to take a gamble on a QB high in the draft this year. Having two 1sts, 2nds, 3rds and 5ths makes it a lot easier to take a shot on a QB in the 1st. Instead of trading up, What if the plan plan is to draft 2 QBs this year to increase their odds of hitting on one? This is comsidered a very deep QB draft. Maybe they take 1 in the 1st, and another in the 3rd? (or something like that). Just a thought... (I doubt it though, since I think they still like Peterman a lot and it would be hard to develop 3 young QBs all at once).

I think the Dolphins may want Mayfield. Definitely heard Arizona may like him. I know (newly retired) Bruce Arians supposedly loves him. I think the trade with Cincy happened for multiple reasons. But... Could part of the reason be that Beane wanted to trade up in front of Arizona? (Although I think that is likely even if Jackson isn't the target, simply because Arizona is definitely in the QB market).

Yes, I know Hackenberg wasn't as highly touted as Allen seems to be (although he was considered a potential #1 overall pick after his first season). But I feel that he does share some similarities with Hack, as I described in my last post. What you mentioned is actually part of the reason why I think he could go to the Jets at #3 though. Allen seems to be thought of highly enough to be considered at the top of the draft. He's a much higher rated prospect than Hackenberg, but still shares some of the same traits Hack has that may have helped Maccagnan fall in love with him (Hackenberg).

This is kind of what I said in another thread - Maccagnan knows his job is on the line, and is acting with a bit of desperation. According to the article on the MMQB about this trade, he sold Woody Johnson on this plan over a year ago. To do whatever it takes to land one of the top 4 QBs in this draft. He bought some time on the job by selling Johnson on this plan. If he stayed at 6 at possibly missed out on all top 4 QBs, he's possibly fired before next season. You can't expect Beane or other GMs that have more job security to be willing to go toe to toe with a GM who's maybe willing to act a bit irrationally/recklessly (by overpaying) to keep his job. He's basically willing to gamble it all on any one of the top 3/4 QBs this year... (that's not the most sound plan IMO). Maccagnan gave up 4 top 50 picks to move up 3 spots. That's a hard offer to compete with, especially when you consider that the Colts will either still get a blue chip prospect, or have a chance to trade down a 2nd time with another QB needy team and stockpile even more assets.

How do you figure that? This didn't really change anything. The Jets at #6 were in front of us before today, too. They just moved up 3 more spots and took away 1 potential trade-up partner. If getting a one of the top 4 QBs is the Bills goal, We still have just as good shot at the #4 QB this year the way I see it. It's still mainly the Browns, Broncos and Jets in dont of us for QB (except now it goes Browns, Jets, Broncos). I guess Miami is a potential wild card, but I think we could pretty easily find our way in front of them somewhere between 6-10 if they had to. Or maybe they move to 4 to jump the Broncos, or sell the farm for #2.

I still feel good about getting a quality QB prospect this draft, whether we move up or stay where we are. One of the strengths of this draft is how deep the QB class is. And whether we move up or not, Beane and McDermott put us in a great position to take a gamble on a QB high in the draft this year. They have two 1sts, 2nds and 3rds. They can gamble and be a bit less gun-why on a QB in the 1st this year that maybe they woulld be more hesitant to pull the trigger on in a year with only 1 pick in each round. Shoot, they could decide to take a shot on 2 QBs in this draft and it still wouldn't really hurt them, draft wise.

If Beane did in fact know a day before the trade, that makes me happy because that most likely means he was involved in, or at least exploring, the trade discussions to move to 3.

But it sounds like they already had their mind made up a year ago that they would do whatever it took to get 1 of the top 4 QBs this year. I dont see how they could have properly vetted all those QBs a year before their draft, and before they even played in their draft seasons. (As just 1 example - Remember when Matt Barkley was thought to be a sure fire #1 overall pick before he played his draft season...?). I get what you're saying about "if you don't have a strong feeling by now, it ain't happening" though. Just because Beane hasn't let his desire on a QB slip to the media doesn't mean he isn't all in on trying to get one of these QBs. It very well could just be that he wasn't comfortable with just getting one of the top 3 QB's in this draft, and if he's going to trade up he has to make sure the 1 QB he wants is still there (aka trade up to pick 2 once he's comfortable that the Browns are going with their guy (like the Eagles did once they knew the Rams were taking Goff) or wait and see if his QB falls past pick 3 before making a trade up).

Well said. Agreed. And while I think we are missing many pieces to be a truly great team, QB is by far the biggest hole and it has been since Jim Kelly retired (man, I miss watching the K gun offense!). We are FAR past our time to see another great QB in a Bills uniform, and the thought of having to potentially wait even longer sucks. To to be honest, like many others, I really had my heart set on getting one of the top 2 QBs this year. I still hope it's possible but it's probably less likely with the ridiculous price it took NY to get from 6 to 3. But what hat gives me hope is that the strength of this QB draft has always been in its depth. The top 3/4 look great but none are what you call "can't miss" types. Granted, i'd rather take the gamble on one of the top 2. But there's definitely a chance, especially this year, that QB 4-6 could end up being one of the top QBs in this draft. The good part - if you spend 1 pick on one of these other QBs and miss, it's sets the franchise back WAY less than if you spend an entire draft + more on trading up and miss on that QB. Ans Id you only spend 1 (or maybe 2 with a slight trade up) pick on QB, you can hopefully fill 4-5 other BIG holes on this team (like our LBs, O line, D line, Wide receivers, RB etc etc).

Or it makes the Jets look reckless. They havent even had a chance to bring any of these QBs in for a visit, sit with them extensively and work them out privately. They've met them for 15 mins each at the combine. They are said to be comfortable with any of the top 4 QBs in this draft (and clearly any of the top 3 since they traded to 3 and may only get the 3rd QB off the board). That sounds like a team willing to randomly throw a dart at one of the QBs this year and hope it sticks. Give me me a calculating GM who thoroughly vets all his possible QB prospects before trading away the farm for the most important position on the field and a guy you want to be the face of your franchise for the next decade plus.