HappyDays

I get Elam vibes from Thomas... He has the same concerns. Below average route anticipation and ability to drive on routes, lack of hip fluidity leading to issues with coverage transitions, handsy which will mean penalties in the NFL, good when he can press and get his hands on but inconsistent in any other situation. I have no interest in that experiment again. Revel and Hairston still strike me as the cleanest fits for our scheme. The more time that passes the more I really like Hairston in particular. When you watch some of his tape he has an elite ability to drive on routes because of his natural speed and his instincts. In the modern NFL where quick game passing has become so important, I think this trait needs to be weighed more heavily.

Kyle Williams is my new favorite 4th round target. He gives us a vertical threat that doesn't currently exist on the roster. Early on we could use him like Denver uses Marvin Mims and there is upside to become a legit top 2 outside option.

We definitely could have afforded Metcalf. No question. Pittsburgh didn't even use any void years. If we had used one and otherwise set up the contract in the exact same way they did, we could have converted his 2026 base salary to a signing bonus to magically bring the $31M cap hit down to $11M. And then you do the same thing in future years, kicking the can down the road as close to Allen's retirement as possible. By the time the full bill comes due the salary cap is likely $100M higher than it is today and the large dead cap we'd be left with wouldn't really matter. Beane wasn't willing to meet the draft capital required to beat Pittsburgh's 2nd, that's all.

Chris Simms put out his top 5 WR rankings. As usual they're quite different from the consensus: As a point of reference, Simms last year went viral for ranking Brian Thomas 2nd over Harrison and Odunze. Naturally he is taking victory laps over that prediction. But he also once left both Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson out of his top 5, so take his bold rankings for what they're worth. This list did prompt me to look more into Kyle Williams. I now really like him as a high 4th or even late 3rd round option if we trade up. He's somewhat of a one year wonder and a bit of an older prospect, but he would give our WR room a vertical threat that doesn't currently exist on the roster. His separation and YAC ability are for real - he has rare acceleration out of route breaks and after catching the ball. He does a good job setting his CB up with footwork and head fakes to create sudden vertical separation. Of course there are a few weaknesses which is why he is projected as a 4th rounder. His frame may make it difficult to get through press coverage so there is a concern he would be a slot only at the next level. He is a body catcher so drops pop up more frequently than you'd like. He is not really functional as a run blocker. He has a tendency to drift upfield into coverage instead of coming back to the ball and in general lacks some of the precision that you need to be a high volume target in the NFL. There is certainly a lot of refinement needed but early in his career he could at least be a strategically deployed deep and YAC threat, almost like how the Broncos have used Marvin Mims, and there is a lot of upside to get excited about.

Those were Tre White's weaknesses coming out too, and they remained his weaknesses in the NFL but it didn't stop him from becoming a star in our defense. I think Hairston is actually a perfect fit for us. He doesn't allow a lot of separation and anticipates routes well. Plus he is a lot more athletic than Tre was. Might be hindsight but honestly he seems like a much better prospect than Elam was coming out, seemingly doesn't have the same transition issues that kept Elam off the field and just seems like a more natural football player.

As always I would be patient to see how the player works out but Grant does not get me excited, although I can definitely see us taking him if he's there. He seems like the less freaky version of Jordan Davis and Davis has been disappointing relative to the pick spent on him. He's become just a rotational DT and most Eagles fans and analysts want them to decline his 5th year option. I know Grant will write his own story but it just feels very uncommon for that type of DT to become a foundational piece in this day and age. We struggle to find difference makers, and the path to being that caliber of player as a 1T is really limited. In general I'm pretty meh overall on the options that will likely be available to us. Which fits the narrative on the class - feels like there's limited top end talent but a ton of 2nd round talents so hopefully we can find a way to get 3 of them. In past years I would have at least one draft crush, this year I really don't, I have some preferred outcomes but nothing I'm married to. If the draft goes as your mock did, I would be most in favor of Shavon Revel. Mainly because he seems like the one potential true difference maker that still exists on the board. I want a high ceiling with our 1st pick. We'd have to be patient given his ACL and his relative raw-ness but the ceiling is undeniable. McDermott could turn that length and that speed into a phenomenon. Egbuka also intrigues me. I'm not sure I see a sky high ceiling which makes me a bit less enthused, but he fits what our WR room needs which is a smart technician that can get open and make himself available to his QB and be trusted to catch the ball. I wish he had more long speed, I wish he projected more cleanly to the outside, but he's talented enough that he could become a Stefon Diggs type pretty early in his career if everything goes well.

It isn't a relevant question at all. The only relevant questions are about the evidence. Whoever investigates this crime is not going to investigate why the women waited, they are going to investigate evidence from that time. If there is a record of the women meeting with Columbia administrators and getting shunned, that will be taken into account. If the women told friends about the crime back when they happened and those friends come forward, that will be taken into account. If none of those pieces of evidence exist, that will be taken into account in Wiley's favor. The only question that won't be taken into account is the one you're exclusively focused on.

Here's a question - if Jihaad Campbell slides because of his shoulder surgery, should we take him? It could be an 8-9 month recovery so he might miss a good portion of his rookie season, and torn labrums are at risk of re-injury if not managed correctly. The book on him is he could be the next Micah Parsons who transitions from LB to pass rusher at the next level.

I think this is the biggest misconception among Bills fans, that we can just get by with late round picks at CB. But Benford was an exception. The likes of Wallace and Jackson are good finds on late day 3/UDFA but ideally those are backups. The best CB we've drafted was Tre White who of course was a 1st rounder. So I don't subscribe to the common sentiment that we should never draft CBs high. I think currently CB2 is our weakest position on the roster by far and I would like a legit talent there. Not that I want Beane to do what he did in 2022 and only target a CB in the 1st round, but I'm hoping that's where the value ends up being.

I want us to draft a CB in the 1st round but it's not a position I would trade way up for. WR and pass rusher are the only two positions I would trade up for (excluding QB obviously) because those players have the ability to take over a game. CBs are critical but they can't take over a game. Personally I don't see any player in this class worth trading up for. Maybe if Tet McMillan falls below 16 you think about it but honestly his skill set seems a bit redundant with what we already have on the roster. There's no explosive WRs or premier pass rushers that are realistically going to fall low enough for us to trade up. I would just stand pat or trade down, and then package a couple 5ths to trade up into the 3rd.

We recovered every single fumble and Mahomes randomly dropped the ball as an unforced error. Bass made all his kicks. How many breaks do you expect us to get?

I remain discouraged that Andy Reid treats our defense like a scout team in every single playoff matchup. They spent the entire 1st half marching up and down the field uncontested, which is pretty much what they've done every other time. I see no practical reason to be optimistic that this outcome is ever going to change under McDermott, but I have no choice but to wait and see what happens.

Again it's not the crime itself. I'm talking about what it is like for the victim to report the crime. That is the relevant difference. But you continue not to acknowledge that and I continue wasting my time trying to get it through to you, so I'd say we're done here.

Then I'm afraid you are just completely disconnected from reality. If you don't understand the differences between what rape victims experience when they report their crime versus what car theft victims experience when they report their crime, especially back in the 90s, this is not a conversation worth having. It has nothing to do with the crime committed. What we're talking about is the experience of reporting the crime. You're the one that made this ridiculous on the face of it analogy and now you're refusing to acknowledge the differences. Like I said, you're not engaging in good faith. I did try.

Ok sure, I'm a glutton for punishment. Do you believe the administrator's response would have been "please don't report the car thief, you'll ruin his future"?

I tried to meet you at your level but you won't engage in good faith. That's what I expected. Have a good one man.

I will probably regret this but I'll try to meet you at your level on this. Starting with a question - if a woman went to the Columbia school administration and said "this student beat me up and stole my car" what do you believe would have been the administrator's response?

Incentives are classified as "likely to be earned" if the player met those incentives in the previous season, or "not likely to be earned" if they didn't. Likely to be earned incentives count on the current year's cap, but would be credited to next year's cap if the incentives are not met. Not likely to be earned incentives instead count against next year's cap if they are achieved. For example Von Miller's sack incentives last year were all classified as "not likely to be earned" because he had 0 sacks in 2023. He ended up getting 6 sacks last year so we owe him $4M which counts against the cap this year.

He also had just under 1,000 yards in 2022 despite playing under Nate Hackett and Russell Wilson. I was banging the drum to trade for him back in 2023 when the thought was it would take a 2nd. I remember saying even a 1st I would have been fine with if that's what it took, which in hindsight would have been a much better use of that pick than Kincaid. The fact that he went for a 5th and 6th last year, and got less than the combined AAV of Samuel and Palmer, that was a no brainer to me. Every year we overpay for defensive linemen but when really good or great WRs become available we get gun shy. I really don't get it, but I guess I'm on the extreme end of the WR discussion compared to most fans.

If you go to our 2026 salary table on Spotrac all of next year's cap hits are listed. The void ones are highlighted in a different color so I just added them up. It's a little over $32M. McGovern I expect to be extended, the others I don't. And I'm thinking we'll cut Samuel next offseason so his dead cap hit of $3.45M will get added on. Altogether it is definitely going to be over $30M we will be paying players not on the roster. Beane needs to nail this upcoming draft.

Another one that gets less notice for some reason is Jerry Jeudy. Cleveland acquired him last year for just a 5th and a 6th. They then signed him to an extension for just $17.5M AAV which now looks paltry compared to the WR market. He went on to collect over 1,200 receiving yards while playing with maybe the worst QB situation in the NFL. I continue to be dismayed by Beane's failure to properly invest in weapons for Allen. Opportunities have been there but he hasn't jumped on them.

Our dead cap for 2026 is really piling up. According to Spotrac it's already at $32.2M and that's before accounting for any earned incentives that hit the cap next year. I don't mind Beane kicking the can as far down the road as possible during Allen's career but I wish he was doing it with more impactful players.

I'm on record that failing to trade for Metcalf was a big mistake and we will regret it. Other than that the FA class on the whole was weak so I don't have strong feelings either way on the rest of our signings. Ogunjobi I'm lower on, Bosa I'm higher on, the rest I'm fine with overall. I'm disappointed Benford wasn't extended, to me he was the #1 priority re-sign but obviously the team didn't agree. To be fair no other contenders seriously improved their roster this offseason either. That's not really what FA is about these days. Drafting well has become more important than ever with teams not letting their stars get away, although again that's why I wish we had taken the rare opportunity to trade for a star in Metcalf. I'm confident we can find a CB2 in the draft. I'm less confident we can find an impactful WR which remains a big need.

But the injuries don't explain what I believe was the bigger problem which was his cerebral game. He does not have natural instincts for reading a defense and making himself available to his QB IMO. He runs past zone windows, he doesn't properly adjust routes, he drifts away from where his leverage should take him. That is the part of his game I am more concerned with. Sure he can get stronger and separate a little better in man coverage, but he isn't going to become our version of Kelce unless he can read the defense as well as Kelce does. I think that's why we were using him on nothing but basic route concepts in shallow areas by the end of the season, because they didn't trust him to be where he was supposed to be downfield. Knox is by no means an elite player but when Allen looked at him he was where Allen expected and the higher efficency on those targets speaks to this.