P51

The point values IMO dont work out that favorably if I am reading this right, using the either the point value charts (Hill or Johnson) when comparing the cost of the Jets trade (34% increase/23rd pick value). Adding another 3rd is comparable and still less than the Jets trade. I agree completely about keeping the 2019 1st 100%. Im pretty sure using the Jets trade as a comparison, its going to cost more that people think to move up to #2.

Some quick numbers; As is... J. Johnson trade chart: Giants 2600 pts, Bills 2615 pts, plus a 2019 2nd round as a sweetner (265 points estimate, as 1st pick in 3rd round value) roughly 2880 pts total. Personally I think given the Jets trade (34% increase/23rd pick in draft value) it will take a little more to seal the deal. 11% increase? Ideal for Buffalo, but unlikely IMO from the Giants. 280 pts is 63rd/64th pick value. Could hold still and see if the Giants bite. Probably need to be more like this... J. Johnson trade value chart: Giants 2600 pts, Bills #12, #22, #53, #56, #65 (pts) and 2019 2nd round pick (265 estimate again) is 3220 pts total and an 24% increase... Still might not be enough, 620 pts is the 30th pick, still 140 pts off the Jets trade value which is about the value of the 90th pick. This is where I would hold firm, regardless. Equivalent of #2 for 2-1sts, 2-nds and a 2-3rds. Add pick 96 (116pts) and its still only a 28% increase in value, about the 24th pick in the draft. Thats pick #2 for the equivalent of 2-1sts, 2-2nds and 3-3rds. As is... Rich Hill trade chart: Giants 717.17 pts, Bills 861.43 pts (2019 2nd rounder estimate value 2018 65th pick (rd3/pick1) 77.95pts), 144.26 pt difference (roughly the 41st pick (rd2/pick 9)) and an 20% increase. Probably need to be more like this.... R. Hill trade chart: Giants 717.17 pts, Bills #12, #22, #53, #56, and 2019 2nd round (estimate value 77.95pts) for a total of 881.75 pts, 164.58 pts increase, 23% increase or the 36th pick (rd2/pick 4) value. This is where I would hold firm, regardless. Equivalent of #2 for 2-1sts, 2-nds and a 3rd. Add pick 65 (77.95pts) and the value meets the Jets trade value (+34%) roughly the 23rd pick in the draft. Thats pick #2 for the equivalent of 2-1sts, 2-2nds and 2-3rds. Hopefully they (Giants) use the R. Hill trade chart and value the 2019 2nd round pick similarly to me... Either way, I dont see the Giants not countering higher at least the 56th pick in addition.

I'd still do it today, lol!! Dont think I'd let them sleep on it... Then trade that #67 and #3 pick to the Giants with for #2 tomorrow...

Leonard would be a great addition to the LB core, especially with any pick left over after they trade up for a QB of their choosing. Rosen/Mayfield at QB behind McBama for a yearish.... Brown (4/5M$ a year on a short term contract) at ILB on 1st and 2nd down (run downs) and off the field in sub-packages, with Leanard and Milano on the field all 3 downs would be good LB group.

The ones the pro's use is the one that matters for them. Ive seen them before and used them myself, regardless everyone is different and every teams evaluation is different, some are better than what the Joe's and the Shmo's come up with and some are not. Yes any number of Qb's could be gone by pick 6... The top 3 analogy comes from the another poster using the top 3 as a high indicator of success, and the wide belief by many including current GM's and scouts belief in season (before the BS season started) that there were 3-4 franchise level QB's in this draft. Looking at previous drafts, the odds of where QB's are picked (yes some bust, some dont), the greatest chance of success is to move up into the top 3 and get a QB, the Bills not moving up, not taking chances at QB has worked really well the last 2 decades. This is a discussion board? No? Every draft has different strengths and weakness, I believe that this draft is the most similar to the 83' draft ever, and like the 83" draft there will be busts, I would hope the Bills would ID 2 or 3 guys who they feel like are the future and instead of sitting still, use there resources and make a move to land that guy(s), based on their evaluations, make it happen not hope he falls to 12, while there are busts high in the draft, its clear the higher you pick one, the better the odds are that he will turn into a franchise guy. They can wait 2 more decades and hope they hit the lottery in 6th round and B.J. Babin in the 2051 draft works out like Brady did, or Ryan Leaf Jr. in the 3rd in the 2032 draft is the next Wilson... I thought there was enough reason in there not be completely arbitrary, so my apologies. 83' was one sample, but its the best sample in terms of overall depth at the QB position pre-draft. There is also the 04' draft where the top 3 guys were rated similarly to this draft and all 3 turned out to be studs, but to get one Buffalo had to move up as would have many teams that needed QB's, they were unable to do so and unwilling to pay the price, and history does not favor Buffalo sitting still. I guess for me it boils down to them using foresight and their resources to make their own destiny at the QB position. I know its just some random guys opinion on the TBD message board, but this is a draft where moving up for a QB will be worth it, the prospects are good enough, Mayfield, Rosen and Darnold have shown NFL skill sets. What do you hope the Bills do in this draft?

I hear that, ideally (my greed) I would have liked to have signed Cousins and used the draft picks to fill in the roster with talent. I just dont see how they pass on these particular QB's given the need, nor do I see how they secure one of the top talents sitting at 12. I wish the Bills could be greedy and use those picks and hope and prey a QB they want falls to them.

There are 3 QB's this year worth (IMO) drafting in the top 5; Mayfield, Rosen and Darnonld given their skill sets. A bunch of vet QB's signed 1 or 2 year deals with teams that need LONG term solutions (including Buffalo, N.Y. Giants and L.A. Chargers as well with vet QB's) as JM57 pointed out: Not a single deal signed or acquired by a QB needy team between would preclude those teams from taking a QB. Every single one was short term deal. Let's revisit. Browns (#1/4) - Tyrod Taylor: 1 year, $10 million Broncos (#5) - Case Keenum: 2 years, $36 million Jets (#6) - Josh McCown: 1 year, $10 million and Teddy Bridgewater: 1 year, up to $15 million Cardinals (#15) - Sam Bradford: 1 year, $20 million Look at those long term deals! Sitting on your hands and waiting to see what comes to you is a surefire way to have other teams who have the same desire for a QB to jump you. Buffalo has the ammunition to Jump into the 2nd or 3rd spot and still have a fairly normal draft with 2nd and 3rd round picks still in hand, whats so hard? How do they not do it? SEL # TEAM PLAYER POSITION SCHOOL 1 Baltimore Colts John Elway QB Stanford 2 Los Angeles Rams Eric Dickerson RB Southern Methodist 3 Seattle Seahawks Curt Warner RB Penn State 4 Denver Broncos Chris Hinton G Northwestern 5 San Diego Chargers Billy Ray Smith Jr. LB Arkansas How many of these players made it to the Super Bowl, besides the Bronco's (w/Elway), none of these teams made it to the Super Bowl in the greatest QB draft of all time, passing on QB's in the top 5. Would the Rams, Seachix, Chargers or even Bronco's in hindsight take Kelly or Marino? They'd be stupid not too. I'd bet in hindsight (which I hate BTW) the Colts would take Marino and let Elway slide given his Chosen Rosen like attitude or speaking his mind and even stating that he would not or prefer to not play for a given team. Given the higher success rate of picking in the top 5, with prospects worthy of such a pick (again IMO), why would McBeane and Co. sit on their hands and not use foresight and their available resources to do so? There is already a realist chance that 4 QB's will be gone by pick 6. These QB's are rated that high by not only myself but many others. This kind of draft happens what, once every 35 years? TOP 3 PICKS 64% GOLD 15% GREEN 21% RED …………………………………………{ ONE out of FIVE top 3 QB picks is a BUST !!! that is a lot of wasted draft horsepower} How many times to you have to draft a QB in those spots to get a GOLD QB? (= 100 / %chance)top 3 ..............1.56 picksrest of 1st ......3.03 picks2n3 & 3rd ........4.54 picks So 1/5 top 5 QB's is a bust, 2/3ish are GOLD, after that the odds significantly decrease and 50ish% of those taken after that are busts. These odds get worse the longer you wait, clearly. This team has kicked the QB can down the road for decades, why wait any longer? With the right trade they can get their QB of the future (franchise if you will), still have quality picks in the 2nd and 3rd round and their entire 2019 draft intact... We can have nice things, learn from the past and play the odds in our favor in a draft made for our biggest need, while still addressing other needs in the draft and not affecting the future. How do they not?

I respectfully disagree with some of what you have to say here, but respect your opinion and agree to a certain extent with some of it. There certainly are plays where it can be debated if he has given enough effort, there are also plays where it can not be debated, from what Ive seen I disagree that he is not dependable nor that he does not give enough effort. From what Ive seen on this board most people cherry pick one or two and use that as an absolute. Ive seen plenty of Watkins from the BIlls and Rams to know that those 50/50 balls are generally forced into coverage or bad throws that few humans can adjust and make the catch, but he does better than he is given credit for, if I remember right his contested catch rate was 60% last year, so he actually wins more 50/50 balls than he does not, and his contested catch rate for his QB's, QBR was in the top 10 for Goff. If the NextGen and other Analytics sights are wrong, so are my eyes. Can he do a better job of getting seperation? IMO Yes, there are routes (usually short to intermediate) where his stem is poor and he relies on his athleticism too much, but he's 24 and shown drastic improvement since being drafted. He's been and still is however one of the best vertical threats in the league. He's still 24 and gone through a foot surgery plenty needed a second surgery for and still gone on to All NBA and All NFL careers. Throughout his career there are more plays where he was dependable, in the right spot and NFL "open", College "open" and not looked at or thrown too where he does not need to win a 50/50 ball, but actual game film is ignored in this regard. I agree he is physically talented and that is not enough in the NFL, but besides winning 60% of his 50/50 balls and helping his QB out among the leagues best in contested situations, what else do you want him to do? What would get you excited? Watkins might not be an elite receiver, I think he is, but can see why yourself and others think he is not, he might become one in time, he might not in the eyes of those who do and do not believe so. Okay? that to me is downplaying his skill set and ability. Comparing him and Robert Woods is like comparing Jerome Bettis to Danny Woodhead, they are as polar opposite WR's as there is. Watkins is true #1 vertical WR, while Woods is a capable #2, functional #1 if needed, who runs clean routes is quicker than fast and an ideal slot receiver who gives 100% effort, run blocks and apparently is f^#*ing crazy. He also does not draw the defenses #1 CB or double coverage. He fits what McVay wants like a glove from a non-#1 WR perspective especially as much as he wants to spread the ball around. I also believe Woods contested catch rate is less than 50%. The Rams saw that and gave Woods a market contract, they saw Watkins (who was traded for a 2nd round pick and a starting CB) was legit downfield threat and #1 WR and is on KC because the Rams lack foresight, and not having the money to retain him. They planned for this years salary cap like my cousin plans on his next fix. They wanted Watkins back, stated so, but did not use any long term thought or cap management into making it happen. If they had the cap room they would have made every to bring Watkins back (at $16M, IDK) I beleive. They have major issues moving forward cap wise, and lots of players and tough choices to deal with. Watkins advanced stats also were better than Woods in everything I have seen. Lofty expectations for KC, I think they are taking care of the offensive side of the ball to make that happen though myself. As for Sammy, I think that would be about right, 8 -10 targets a game. IMO 10 targets a game should get you about 100 receptions for Sammy and both Watkins skill and the Chiefs contract for him would be justified and realistic. 8 targets would make it tough, but his abiltiy to stretch the field and Mahommes arm could make it work. Perspective/Reference: Antonio Brown had 163 targets last year and 101 receptions. 1500 yds and 9 TDs. I think with that kind of targeting Watkins has similar production.

I agree, I certainly think they will target him more than the Rams did. I understand what you are saying. How many targets do you think he will need to get to 100 catches per season and justify his contract? Given that offense and the other weapons on the team and their need for touches as well, what type of production would justify his contract should he not get to 100 catches or enough targets to realistically get to 100 catches?

Hard to do when your only targeted 70 times.

The draft is limited on true speed for sure, Chark going in the 1st wouldnt surprise me now. Draft is a lot of big bodies and not much speed and certainly lacking on high end talent.

Plus is a real possibility, 4 or 5 years? Im thinking 5/55 w/20 guaranteed is possible. Deep threats are getting paid this year and he's the best available now in a competitive market, lots of suitors. Albert Wilson just got $8M per for 3 years....

These QBs have legit skill sets, they wowed on the field long before draft preseason.

Indy does need a pass rusher...

Easy yes, good value and gets them 9 steps closer to the primary off season goal. Still some moving up to do, but that just got easier.

Nice mock through and through, the Bills trade up is worth it IMO. I’d do it for Rosen, Darnold or Mayfield, high but acceptable for Rosen. Is he a day one starter in this situation?

Where have I seen this idea before?? Who was it.... Anyway.... Mayfield reminds me so much of Brees (who was much better at dropping from under center then) working out of the gun at Purdue, I’m surprised the comparison isn’t made more in that regard. The ability to process quickly, scan and go through progressions, make plays on the move, slide around the pocket, manipulate the secondary, hit receivers in stride, spread the ball around and know how to utilize mismatches, throw on the run, utilize whole field accuracy, lead and have the mentality to lead, execute play action fakes and throw with touch is what he can do that I want on my team and believe he does. Only Bills fans wouldn’t want such a nice shinny thing to help usher in modern football to Buffalo, hes a perfect fit with Daboll, teams win out of spread concepts now and he’s a accurate trigger man, I do this trade everytime, let him learn to work from under center, even if it costs both 1sts, pick 53 (1st 2nd rounder and Glenn (or a 3rd round pick and trade Glenn separately if desired, they are clearly set on trying to move him and not to RT). He’s not making it past 6 imo, especially if Cousins goes to Minny which is highly likely, and even more so if that happens and Rosen and Darnold go 1,2. Hoping to move up for him later is a gamble, If the Colts will deal Buffalo should make the move.

I think so too, JohnC brought up the trade being light, what’s your thoughts on the cost to move up? More, less, about right?

Copy that, don’t have the splits, but IMO Michel has field/game speed in pads that’s faster than Chubb and most of the prospects. Similar to Kamara.

The Colts trade is at +28% value, which is a hefty increase, could it take more? Sure could, I wouldn’t include a 1st next year but if it took a 2nd to get it done, I’d probably do it with mid round return from them, but all futrure negotiations with the Colts would carry a huge Increase similarly to this trade in any deal. I think the trade makes a ton of sense from the Colts (similarly to the Broncos depending as well) side. Turning the #3 pick into 3 top 53 picks (5 total) and a LT whom allows for increased flexibility on the offensive line (they have 2 starting caliber lineman imo) is something they should be searching out, their roster is awful. It’s not like their getting a Raiders return from Miami in 2013 for the 3rd pick. The Colts are in a great position if QBs go 1 & 2 in the draft especially with the only other pick being Cleveland’s before the Jets and Broncos pick, neither of which IMO is getting Cousins, who I think is going to end up in Minnesota, their roster is set up to win now and down the road. Cleveland takes Barkley at 4 regardless of offers, then the Broncos take Baker and don’t trade for Foles and the Jets take Allen otherwise and we are into the L. Jackson’s and M. Rudolph’s if the world... Jackson is growing on me again. Gunners opinion is one here I always take note of and respect, I don’t know what he said re the Giants, but IMO it would be irresponsible for the Giants to walk out of this draft w/out their QB for the next 15 years. I think their throwing smoke out there to get Cleveland to bite on Barkley 1 so they get their future at 2. I see it as a Superbowl QB to Super Bowl caliber QB and 30ish years of chances, similarly to the Packers. That’s priceless, especially if Barkley goes 1, he’s special but nothing in the league is QB trumping. Given their position how do they not take a QB? Their roster needs too much work IMO to truly compete in the near future and Eli is clearly declining. I did this mock prior to Browns combine, and I messed up on the Browns/Panthers trade trying to edit and just caught it when you said that. Should have Kolton Miller and Brown switched (hindsight excluded, based on my rankings prior to the mock & combine). Regardless, I heard about the Brown combine late today and will watch the recording tomorrow to see how things went, but when your right, your right, he hurt himself big time today, might be another round or two fall past the 2nd, based on what I’ve heard. I started this mock 10 or so days ago, and did that pick early this week. I don’t get not being prepared, incomprehesible... I appreciate the feedback and discussion!

An pre-combine mock with some free agency implications integrated, especially at QB. Trades are based on the Rich Hill trade chart. I will respond when I can, feedback is appreciated, enjoy the weekend and the combine! 2018 NFL Mock Draft V 2.0 (Pre-Combine) 2 round mock *Rich Hill trade chart* 1st Round 1 – Cleveland – Sam Darnold (QB – U.S.C.) New GM John Dorsey isn’t going to the Brownzy thing here, pass on a QB and take a chance their guy isn’t there at pick 4. S. Barkley at 1, J. Allen at 4 makes sense, but S. Darnold at 1 and Barkley at 4 makes more sense and even S. Darnold 1, M. Fitzpatrick at 4 makes more sense. Signing A.J. McCarron (despite being a new front office, McCarron still makes sense) in FA does not stop Dorsey from taking Darnold #1. 2 – N.Y. Giants – Josh Rosen (QB – U.C.L.A.)(Med) The Giants could snag S. Barkley here and give Eli a weapon to try to win now with, however this team is not a S. Barkley away from being a Super Bowl contender this year, next year or even the next. J. Rosen is the future and now is the time to start grooming him for such. The best pure passer in the draft, Rosen needs to let his body heal and get stronger which he’ll be able to do while being developed properly behind Eli for a couple years. Long term thinking pays long term dividends. The Giants are not a quick fix. *Trade* Indianapolis trades the 3rd pick to Buffalo for the 21st, 22nd, 53rd picks and LT – Cordy Glenn (assigned value – pick 96/3rd round). Rich Hill Trade Value Chart: Colts – 514.33, Bills – 659.22, 128% premium increase. 3 – Buffalo (via. Indianapolis) – Baker Mayfield (QB – Oklahoma) Apparently the tight lipped Bills brass has let it be known that they love Darnold, Rosen and Allen so far. Letting it be known sounds like smoke to me, having hired an offensive coordinator who learned the college game and previously worked for a regime that incorporates college schemes into a pro offense makes me think there is a strong possibility they actually like Mayfield more than they are letting on publically. Having the resources to move up this far without killing their entire draft using the Rich Hill trade chart to land B. Mayfield, they make the move. The Bills in this case trade Tyrod Taylor for a 5th round pick and bring in Ryan Fitzpatrick to compete with and tutor Mayfield for the 2018 season. 4 – Cleveland (via. Houston) – Saquon Barkely (RB – Penn. St.) The Browns land their QB1 with the top pick, next they land their top overall player with pick 4. #WIN 5 – Denver – Minkah Fitzpatrick (FS/CB – Alabama) While I think the Broncos are in the running for Cousins, their offensive supporting cast is weak and/or aging, while the defense is still strong it is not the same dominate unit it once was. Cousin’s signs elsewhere and John Elway looks to another FA or trade option to bridge into the future, while understanding the draft might not play out the way he would hope, which in this mock it does not. So Elway looks to take the best available prospect to upgrade the secondary in a unique way as Fitzpatrick can play any spot in the secondary and diversifies the Bronco’s secondary. 6 – N.Y. Jets – Josh Allen (QB – Wyoming) The Jets lose out on Cousins as well and look to the future at QB with J. Allen who is a long term project with a high ceiling and look to FA to bring in a bridge QB for a year or two, like C. Keenum to keep the Jets team on track and moving in a positive direction offensively while Allen develops. 7 – Tampa Bay – Bradley Chubb (43DE – N.C. St.) The Bucs sit tight and land the #1 pass rusher in the draft, who also is an exceptional base end in a 43 front. 8 – Chicago – Tremaine Edmunds (Edge/LB – Va. Tech.) I really want to find Tru a weapon to grow and develop with, but I don’t see the value this high at WR or TE, not having a trade back partner hurts as well. So it’s BPA at an impact position of need as Edmunds can play base LB anywhere on any down, while contributing to the pass rush opposite L. Floyd. 9 – San Francisco – Derwin James (SS/FS – F.S.U.)(Med) D. James is the perfect physical specimen as a box safety, capable of handling bigger TE’s, RB’s and big slot receivers in coverage, while being a capable run defender and blitzer with room to grow and improve as an all-around player. Could develop into a CB or FS, but for the time being should be an excellent box SS, who is capable on the back end in zone coverage. 10 – Oakland – Da’Ron Payne (DT – Alabama) Payne showed he can dominate games in both phases run and pass D in 2017, he is going to be a better pro than college player as he continues to learn to rush the passer more efficiently and technically. More athletic than he is given credit for. Day 1 starter with a 3 down impact. 11 – Miami – Quenton Neslon (LG – Notre Dame) Miami needs to beef up the interior of the offensive line and landing one of the best 2 players in the draft to help them do so can only help both the Dolphins QB and RB’s execute Adam Gases offense. *Trade* Cincinnati trades the 12th pick to the L.A. Chargers for the 17th, 84th picks in the 2018 draft and a 2019 5th round pick. Rich Hill Trade Value Chart: Cincinnati – 346.51, L.A. Chargers – 347.21 (+ 2019 5th). 12 – L.A. Chargers (via. Cincinnati) – Lamar Jackson (QB/WR – Louisville) Every draft there is a surprising move and this could be the one in the 2018 draft, the Chargers have to start thinking about their team’s future post P. Rivers. L. Jackson is a polarizing prospect, Michael Vick athletic with a better passing IQ that needs to be developed, but has improved during his college career. Jackson needs to bulk up and develop his pocket passing skills if he wants long term NFL success, both of which he will be able to do behind P. Rivers for the next 1-2 years. 13 – Washington – Joshua Jackson (ZCB – Iowa) Bashaud Breeland is likely leaving in FA and Josh Norman turns 31 in season next year. J. Jackson can start day 1 and fit into the Redskins youth movement in the secondary with Q. Dunbar and F. Moreau as the Redskins transition into the new “nickel is the base D.” 14 – Green Bay – Harold Landry (OLB/Edge – B.C.) The Packers need an edge presence so they can move C. Matthews permanently inside. Landry’s 2016 tape is as impressive as there is in this class of pass rushers, his athletic ability off the edge will allow him to make plays in NFL and he has room for improvement technique wise that an NFL coach should mold into a top tier pass rusher, who is also capable of dropping back into coverage. *Trade* Arizona trades the 15th, 47th and 79th picks to Indianapolis for the 21st, 36th, 67th and 195th picks. Rich Hill Trade Value Chart: Arizona – 496.88, Indianapolis – 505.63. 15 – Indianapolis (via. Arizona) – Marcus Davenport (43DE – U.T.S.A.) Arizona wants to move up and get their QB of the future, but with the top 4 QB’s in the draft gone by the 6th pick has to make the best of the situation and looks to move down and Indianapolis is a willing to move up for a pass rusher who slides down the board a little in M. Davenport who is only scratching the surface of his immense potential, similarly to Ezekial Ansah when he came out in the 2013 draft. Spd/Po. 16 – Baltimore – Calvin Ridley (WR – Alabama) The Ravens need to give Flacco weapons in order for him and the team to succeed and Ozzie Newsome likes to take the Best Alabama Player Available, making this a natural fit. Ridley has long speed to go with elite level CoD skills, and reminds me of Isaac Bruce in many ways, aside from the dropsies. 17 – Cincinnati (via. L.A. Chargers) – Roquan Smith (WLB/ILB – Georgia) R. Smith instantly upgrades the entire Bengals linebacking core and gives them a LB capable of covering from the 2nd level of the defense. Smith’s value here is too much to pass on despite having more pressing needs on the roster. BPA. 18 – Seattle – Sonny Michel (RB – Georgia) Seattle has needed a RB since M. Lynch temporarily “hung’em up”. S. Michel can be a true 3 down back, who’s 15 & 16 tape shows a natural ability to catch the ball out of the backfield similarly to the Rose Bowl game vs. Oklahoma, while being asked to stay in and block more in 17. Michel’s explosiveness and ability to run inside and out will make him a perfect fit in Seattle. Michel is an underrated 3 down player. 19 – Dallas – James Washington (WR – Ok. St.) Dez Bryant contract and physical ability are not as close as they once were and a lack of separation is creating a lack of production. Dallas needs a deep threat to back off safeties, in addition a true #1 WR to get the offense back on track and J. Washington has the skill set to fill the void, even if Bryant restructures. 20 – Detroit – Maurice Hurst (3DT – Michigan) Hurst could be the best penetrating 43 Three-Technique to enter the draft in since Aaron Donald and while he is a one trick pony, it’s a good trick despite not being A. Donald good. Hurst needs to refine his hand use technique and improve his strength to become a more well-rounded defensive lineman but he should complement A’Shawn Robinson nicely in the Lions interior defensive line. 21 – Arizona (via. Indy, via. Buffalo) – Mason Rudolph (QB – Ok. St.) The Cardinals move down the board, acquiring an extra pick while also moving up the board in the 2nd and 3rd rounds and landing their QB target before the teams at the bottom of the 1st can. Rudolph sits for a year while Tyrod Taylor (traded to Arizona for the 152nd pick in the 5th round) 22 – Indianapolis (via. Buffalo, via. K.C.) – Denzel Ward (CB – O.S.U.) D. Ward is the BPA at a position of need and whether it be in the slot or on the perimeter, Ward is a capable lock down defender. While preferable given some size limitations, Ward could be an elite sub package defender and should flourish in that role given his athleticism. Wards skill set will still allow him to be effective on the boundary or field in coverage. 23 – L.A. Rams – Arden Key (Edge/43DE – L.S.U.)(Off/Med) The Rams are not afraid take on talented players with question marks, and Key’s 2016 season was impressive, showing the raw talent to get picked in the top 5 coming into this season, injuries, off the field issues and weight issues seem to be being handled and Key should flourish under Wade Phillips. *Trade* Carolina trades the 24th and 161st picks to Cleveland for the 33rd and 65th picks. Rich Hill Trade Value Chart: Carolina – 42.97, Cleveland – 44.81 24 – Cleveland (via. Carolina) – Mike Hughes (CB – U.C.F.) Cleveland needs to upgrade their secondary in a big way, especially at corner back and with great hips and CoD skills, Hughes is physical throughout the route and gets his head around and locates the ball. The more I watch of Hughes the more I like him and expect him to challenge J. Jackson and D. Ward for the top CB in the draft, especially if he nails the combine. Cleveland uses their extensive draft capital to make a move up the board and fill and big need with talent at the CB. Bringing in a Trumaine Johnson and Lamarcus Joyner at CB and FS in FA will help allow Hughes to start his career in the slot. 25 – Tennessee – Vita Vea (NDT – Washington) Vea is drawing comparisons to Haloti Ngata and as a run defender Vea is similar to Ngata, the reason Vea falls in this mock is that he does not have Ngata’s ability to penetrate and is not as light on his feet. Vea is a rare physical specimen with elite strength and power, with room to improve as a pass rusher. 26 – Atlanta – Mike McGlinchey (RT/T – Notre Dame) I’ve never been a fan of R. Schraeder as starting tackle in the NFL and McGlinchey is the best true right tackle in the draft, he just happens to be a better right tackle than left, which diminishes his value a little and causes him to slip down the board despite being an excellent all around football player. RT the new LT? 27 – New Orleans – Rashaan Evans (LB – Alabama) The Saints LB core has been hit hard by injuries and the situation given the personnel history isn’t figuring to get any better and with the ability to play in any spot and play any role given his versatility R. Evans is an easy pick here and day 1 impact, 3 down, side-line to side-line starter. 28 – Pittsburgh – Leighton Vander Esch (ILB/SLB – Boise St.) Ryan Shazier was one of my draft favorites in 2014 and nothing changed once he hit the field in the NFL, I truly hope he’ll be able to heal and have a healthy life moving forward w/or w/out football. Vander Esch helps fill the void at ILB for the Steelers. 29 – Jacksonville – Isaiah Wynn (LG/T – Georgia) Tough call here between Wynn and W. Hernandez, but Wynn has the higher grade and ability to kick out to tackle if needed. Wynn helps the run and pass game next to C. Robinson for the next decade on the left side of the Jag’s oline. 30 – Minnesota – Orlando Brown (RT/T – Oklahoma) I have the Vikings winning the Cousins sweepstakes in FA. Brown allows Remmers to move inside to guard if needed and further bolsters the run game for D. Cook and Co. at running back, while providing long term security at tackle in pass protection as well for Cousinis. 31 – New England – Isaiah Oliver (CB – Colorado) Malcom Butler is clearly leaving in FA and the cupboard is bare opposite S. Gilmore whose post-season play was among the best on the Patriots defense. Luckily for the Patriots I. Oliver falls right into their laps and should start day 1. 32 – Philadelphia – Darius Leonard (WLB – S. Carolina St.) The Eagles are going to have to make some tough choices this offseason and letting N. Bradham go in FA is one, the good news is D. Leonard is going to be a cost controlled stud replacement. 2nd Round 33 – Carolina (via. Cleveland) – Kolton Miller (LT/T – U.C.L.A.) K. Miller has the physical tools to be the best LT in this class, strength and technique development is going to be the key to unlocking his potential. Carolina could easily go in several directions with this pick, but protecting Cam Newton has to be a priority. 34 – N.Y. Giants – Darrius Guice (RB – L.S.U.)(Med) The Giants get their QB for the next decade plus in the 1st round and now land their RB of the present and future with an early round 2 steal. 35 – Cleveland (via. Houston) – Courtland Sutton (WR – S.M.U.) Sutton is another big bodied receiver with a ton of potential to start opposite J. Gordon and allow C. Coleman to move inside and work out of the slot full time, where he should have been since being drafted. 36 – Arizona (via. Indianapolis) – Malik Jefferson (ILB – Texas) The Cardinals need help all over the field and a run stuffing ILB who can help in coverage is near the top of the list. 37 – N.Y. Jets – Billy Price (C/G – O.S.U.) The last time the Jets drafted an Ohio St. center it worked out well for them, and while I don’t think there is a correlation beyond attending O.S.U., I think Price can have the same long term affect. 38 – Tampa Bay – Ronald Jones II (RB – U.S.C.) Tampa needs a running back and gets a steal in the 2nd round with R. Jones III who has a first round skill set and will help J. Winston on all 3 downs. 39 – Chicago – Christian Kirk (WR – Texas A & M) After passing on a weapon for Tru in the 1st, the Bears look to take the best available weapon in the 2nd round with Kirk who will likely work best out of the slot at the next level. *Trade* Denver trades the 40th pick and 99th Picks to Philadelphia for QB – Nick Foles. 40 – Philadelphia (via. Denver) – D.J. Moore (WR – Maryland) The Eagles have to make cuts or trades to get cap space to operate at all this off season and trading Foles saves them about $5 million in space and allows them to bring in some cost controlled assets. Meanwhile Denver loses out on their FA QB’s of choice and enters the draft looking for a veteran QB and lands it in Foles who Bill Musgrave will tailor an offense for. Meanwhile the Eagles cut Torrey Smith in another salary cap move and replace him with the downfield threat in D.J. Moore. 41 – Miami – Mark Andrews (TE – Oklahoma) Julius Thomas looks like his age is catching up with him and M. Andrews looks like a perfect fit for Adam Gase who continues to use the draft to build his offense around Ryan Tannehill. 42 – Oakland – Jalen Davis (NCB – Utah St.) The under rated J. Davis is potential lock down nickel defender who can keep up with the speediest of slot receivers and is in the upper echelon of playmaking DB’s in this draft. 43 – New England (via. S.F.) –Andrew Brown (3DT – Virginia) The Patriots pass rush needs to be upgraded and having Derek Rivers come back from injury should help on the edges and Andrew Brown should help the interior pass rush. Brown was used to 2 gap in a 34 front at UVA and out of position, not his strengths, but he has a great first step and was used as stand up pass rusher on the edge for the Cavaliers showing a good bull rush and active hands, while also dropping in coverage. 44 – Washington – Will Hernandez (LG/G – U.T.E.P.) The Skins offensive line was decimated by injuries last year and there is no current starting LG on the roster, Hernandez would be huge upgrade, literally and figuratively. 45 – Green Bay – Ronnie Harrison (SS – Alabama) Morgan Burnett is likely leaving via FA, and Harrison can come in a lay the lumber from day 1. A steal at pick 45. 46 – Cincinnati – Connor Williams (LT/T/G – Texas) (Off) Cincinnati needs to figure out its LT spot and C. Williams could be the savior on the Red Riffles blind side. 47 – Indianapolis (via. Arizona) – Tyrell Crosby (RT/T – Oregon) Having shored up the D in round 1, the Colts land a potential day 1 starter in Crosby who continues to grow on me, protecting and surrounding A. Luck with talent should be priority #1. It just didn’t work out that way in this mock. 48 – Los Angeles Chargers – James Daniels (C – Iowa) Spencer Pulley is a nice back up who can play C and G, a starter is needed and now drafted. 49 – N.Y. Jets (via. Seattle) – Ogbonnia Okoronkwo (OLB/Edge – Oklahoma) The Jets have needs and pass rusher is one of them, Okoronkwo is a love hate prospect. 50 – Dallas – DeShon Elliott (FS- Texas) The Cowboys should be looking to move pieces of their secondary around including Byron Jones to full time CB, leaving a hole for D. Elliott to fill at FS. 51 – Detroit – Dorian O’Daniel (WLB – Clemson) O’Daniel has made huge strides from last year to this past season and is the perfect complement to J. Davis at ILB and the Lions have several FA LB’s to replace, and O’Daniel is perfect cover LB to do so. 52– Baltimore – Frank Ragnow (C/G – Arkansas) (Med) Ragnow needs to be medically cleared and despite that making this potentially high for Ragnow, his ability to play either C or G and physical skill set when health make this a potential homerun pick. 53 – Indianapolis (via. Buffalo) – Marcell Ateman (WR – Ok. St.) The Colts need weapons at WR and Ateman complements TY Hilton nicely, adding a big bodied target for A. Luck to throw to. 54 – Kansas City – Jaire Alexander (CB – Louisville) Kansas City needs help at corner in a big way and get the feisty, uber talented J. Alexander. Alexander has durability concerns, but an 1st round pound for pound talent skill set. 55 – Carolina – Justin Reid (SS/FS/NCB – Stanford) The Panthers cupboard is completely bare and empty at safety, and Reid can play both safety spots, and even drop down and cover the slot as corner. 56 – Buffalo (via. L.A. Rams) – Harrison Phillips (DT – Stanford) Harrison Phillips and Sean McDermott seem like a match made in heaven and Phillips should be an off the bus starter for the Bills defensive front. 57 – Tennessee – Brendan Smith (G – Auburn) B. Smith is a day one starter and will go a long way to keeping the Titans offense moving and productive. 58 – Atlanta – Tim Settle (NDT – Va. Tech) Replacing D. Poe with a run stuffing nose tackle has to be a priority for the Falcons in the NFC South and Settle should settle in nicely upfront for the Falcons dline. 59 – San Francisco (via. N.O.) – Sam Hubbard (43DE – O.S.U.) San Francisco needs pass rusher opposite S. Thomas and gets Hubbard late in the 2nd round, while not an athletically gifted player, Hubbard will have to use his technical skills to succeed at the next level as a pass rusher. 60 – Pittsburgh – Terrell Edmunds (SS/FS –Va. Tech) Time to finish the roster make over at Safety and Terrell Edmunds will help add a playmaking dimension to the Steelers secondary. 61 – Jacksonville – Dallas Goedert (TE – S. Dakota St.) Mercedes Lewis is going to be 34 next year and there is not much in the cupboard on Jacksonville’s roster at TE. Goedert can come in and help in all aspects of the offense, most importantly of all giving B. Bortles or whomever at QB moving forward a viable option in the passing game at TE. 62 – Minnesota – Tavern Bryan (3DT – Florida) Bryan does not have a consistent motor from what I have seen, but if harnessed correctly, Bryan has 1st round level skills and could be a steal if the coaches in Minnesota get his motor going. 63 – New England – Ito Smith (RB – S. Miss.) I don’t expect Dion Lewis to be back and Ito Smith has a comparable skill set that fits nicely into the Patriots offense. 64 – Cleveland (via. Philadelphia) – Chukwuma Okorafor (LT/T – W. Michigan) Having shored up the QB, RR, WR and CB so far in the draft and the secondary in FA, the Browns look to developing their LT of the future.

Huge fan of Herbie one of my two favorite announcers of any sport. Its an interesting transition, I hope he’s as good at it as he is talking about college ball, should be, he’s a class act.

RE: Daniels; do either of you see a Cameron Erving like skill set?

Why do you think that? Is it coverage (man vs. zone) or physical skill set, or some thing else? Personally I think he has elite level zone skills, plus. Man coverage needs work and his grade would drop IMO if that is the primary grading criteria.

Tyler Keane from Coastal Carolina im guessing? I think he's a UDFA position switch to WR/ST, similarly to J. Edelman. He has some nice QB skills, but I dont see the translation to the next level, he deep ball range looks like a maxed out 40 yards, he only had one or two tight window throws that I can remember and I dont recall him moving off his primary read and moving through his progressions at all when I watched him, unless he was under duress and he had to move out of the pocket and his eyes were forced to shift focus. Climbs the pocket and has a good feel for pressure moving well around the pocket as well. Accuracy is shaky. I havent see a lot of him, but I think his athletic testing will be vital for him to get any real shot at the league as a WR/ST player.