Sammy Watkins' Rib

I looked up the last 20 drafts and was somewhat surprised to see a team has trading down from the first pick of the second round only twice. It happened in 2015 and 2007. https://www.prosportstransactions.com/football/DraftTrades/Years/2007.htm You would think with nearly 24hrs to take trade calls it would happen more often. Now, the Bills are in a somewhat rare spot where they have traded down twice starting late in the first round to end up at #33. They seem to be a much more willing team to move the #33 pick then perhaps many of the teams that have held the first pick of the 2nd round in previous drafts.

Both are day two QB's IMO. What is weird about this draft and maybe it is a new trend, it's like teams don't want to take QB's in rounds 2 or 3 anymore. Will there be a single QB selected today? GM's either want to be all in on a QB by committing to them in round 1 or take them on day 3 to set the expectations very low.

Vikings area loser for me because they drafted JJ McCarthy. The athletic Mac Jones. It was a smart pick by them for I think. I like Maye. He is Josh Allen lite.

Cooper DeJean. But I would prefer another trade down. I am sure that is what the Beane is trying to workout obviously. Otherwise you stay at #32 and get the 5th year option. We will see if he is able to trade down again or not.

If we somehow pull off three 2nd round picks and still end up with Troy Franklin, DeJean and any other WR you want to throw in there I'd call that a good draft. Not sure if they can draft three players in round two but they are working closer to that.

Would make sense they try to trade back again. They have nearly 24hrs to work out a deal. If so the trade off would have to be revisited. If they don't trade back then I would say no, it's not worth it. But then again, by making the trade you give yourself a much better chance to trade back again.

Got to believe we are fielding trade calls all day tomorrow for #33. Bills in no hurry to draft anyone.

Our first round was essentially trading a 4th for a 3rd and 6th for a 5th. We now have two seconds and third? Will be interesting if we end up taking three players in the second tomorrow by trading up into the 2nd with our stock pile of picks. That may be a success if we can end up with DeJean and two WR's in the 2nd round.

Funny how?

Well safety and wr are both needs. Most disagreeing with DeJean who I assume we would play at safety seem to want a wr instead. But their is zero consensus on who the next top 5-6 wr off the board are.

There’s no consensus on any of these remaining wr’s so just wait it out and take an elite defensive player at a position of need is my thought process. I mean I rally like Troy Franklin and I see him mocked to the 3rd round.

Let’s hope so.

Who do you have them targeting?

give me DeJean if he is there.

Bills needs to take Cooper Dejean and then double dip on WR with their next two picks. Nobody knows who of the next 10 WR's to go off the board who will be a hit.

And yet Baltimore was held to what 10 points at home by the Chiefs. Miami’s offense held to 10 points. Chiefs kicked fg after fg in the Super Bowl. 49ers scored like 20 points in the Super Bowl? their is still a place for elite defenses in today’s game. Some say it is because o-line play is at a low.

Yep. Chiefs defense was unreal last year in the postseason. Mahomes is great but their skill players were garbage, OT terrible and they won a Super Bowl on the back of an elite defense in the postseason.

What do they do? take the 7th QB off the board? When the last two were day two talents.

it is an expensive insurance policy. They need a good o-line for the entire season to keep Rodgers healthy. He’s never really played with a bad o-line until last year and his season lasted 4 plays with that bad o-line.

I mean jets only have to wait till week 4 or 6 before Tyron is out for the year. If not, then yeah it is a very expensive insurance policy. But their season and maybe a division title rides on Aaron being healthy and having a chip on his shoulder.

I am watching the ABC telecast with the college gameday crew and they did not tip it. I was definitely shocked.

I do. Take Dejean and grab best available WR in round 2. If possible pull of small trade up and grab McConkey, Legette or Franklin. Coming away with Dejean and one of those three WR's would be a home run draft IMO.

I can’t wait to watch McCarthy fall out of the first round. He’s this year’s Will Levis in terms of receiving so much first round hype post bowl season and leading up to the draft.

Your projections are off a bit based on historical data. You project 620 targets but Allen only had 579 last year in a full 17 games. In his two most recent 16 game seasons in 2020 and 2022 he had an average that would have put him right around 600 for 17 games. His career high was 646 in 17 games played in 2021. I expect the Bills to have a continued focus on the running game so i lean more towards a repeat of the 580 attempts from last season. So I say you are anywhere from 20-40 attempts over expectation for 2024. Samuel the last five seasons has 105, 97, 92 and 91 targets in four of the last five seasons. The other season he only played 5 games. His rushing attempts in that span per year are 19, 4, 41, 38, 7. Your projections are 75 targets and 55 rushing attempts for Samuel. I can see the 75 targets, but he is capable of another 10-30 targets based on past performance. The 55 rushing attempts seems highly unlikely. For Kincaid I think we hope he hits 120 targets. 110 should be his floor. The top TE's in the game are all getting 120 -130 targets per season.

The questions on defense might be overblown. Both safety spots are really the only positions with significant change. While Hyde and Poyer were great in their time with the team, there is no denying they were both old last season by safety standards. Not out of the question that we are not losing much at all by moving on from both in the grand scheme of things. As @Kirby Jackson noted, the defense in particular has played a lot of games in the McDermott/Allen era without key defensive pieces for long stretches. Losing Floyd, Hyde and Poyer likely doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things. I get concerned about the defense in the postseason every year though.