Sammy Watkins' Rib

And people act like Kincaid isn’t on the team. look it is simple. Kincaid is supposed to be the elite pass catcher. Don’t know why folks have a hard time understanding that. We don’t know if he will be come elite best TE in the league, top 3, top 5, top 10 or bust. But there is no question he is the main piece to the puzzle right on offense. and what is with this out of necessity nonsense some are throwing out? I don’t care why we are drafting receivers. I have to believe most teams draft receivers (again WR/TE) until they hit. Bills are no different. They had Diggs for 4 years via trade. They tried Davis and Knox through the draft and some vets. None panned out. That’s life as an NFL franchise. But now it is freak out time at TBD because Bills have traded Diggs and the receivers we have drafted the last three years have been “out of necessity”. That take just makes zero sense. If one wants to argue the Bills should trade for a WR again. Okay that makes a bit more sense. But with Allen on his big money contract now and a failed Von Miller experiment I don’t see that happening this year. The Bills would be much better off long term having either Coleman or Kincaid hit as an elite talent over giving out a big money contract to a WR. Again, some are drawing conclusions that are not there. I am a strong believer in an elite TE as a better option to an offense over an elite WR. Bills are trying to hit a home run with Kincaid. It’s harder to find that elite TE but it’s worth it if you hit on them. I’m glad the Bills took a swing. But yes, of course an offense needs someone elite catching the ball. Whether it is a TE or a WR doesn’t necessarily matter but I think most see the recent value in TE’s leading teams to multiple rings.

that’s not what I’ve been saying. I’ve been firm in two things. bills have invested more in receivers (WRand TE) these last two years than some folks believe. winning a Super Bowl can be done with or without elite WR’s. Luckily he is not the only receiver on our team.

wait. We aren’t playing Coleman this year? Got it. Lol

assuming they can get on the field right? Who are you taking off the roster? kincaid and shakir all had great catch rates. The plan is to give them larger roles in the offense.

I agree. I am pointing out how ridiculous Mr. rags claim of not winning a ring last year (but we did the previous years???) was. That our inability to win a ring with phasing diggs and Davis out somehow draws a conclusion worth while. many factors go into winning a ring. To put it all on one specific thing as he did is a bit ridiculous.

My opinion is that Kincaid, Shakir and Coleman are all “young talent” being added to the passing game with expanding and emerging roles. That’s 3 players when only what 4 or at most 5 can be on the same field at the same time. How many young guys do we need? Do they all need to be “young talent” guys? Bills have invested their first two picks in the last two drafts into receivers.

I think it had many, many factors. That’s quite obvious as we know. A couple of those factors will not repeat themselves in our lifetimes. A QB taking the league by surprise and telling the league “here I am” only happens once. A global pandemic, once in a lifetime. They didn’t have quite the same level of success in 2021 with those receivers still on the roster.

No offense but that response gets a huge eye roll. so what were their excuses in 2020, 2021 and 2022? No rings either. Bengals no rings with Chase, Higgins and Boyd. Miami, zero division titles with Hill and Waddle. No rings in Philly with those WR’s.

I 100% agree. Balls to the wall or sugar high Josh whatever you want to call him is the most exciting and IMO unstoppable force the game has ever seen. It's the way he should play all the time. Josh will get injured. Everyone does. The question will be how does he comeback from an injury?

I did answer the question. I basically said your assumed answer is incorrect. I said sure in a one season sample size, some offenses will do better than the Bills. But big picture, since 2020 who is consistently outperforming the Bills offense? IMO, that would just be KC. So if the Bills are #2 on the list I don't think that is really worth worrying about. Not sure why you are even arguing this point. Did I not state clearly that Dorsey was wrongly scapegoated and fired? Everyone knows the defense was terrible and led to many of our losses. Heck, look at the Denver game. The offensive personnel let Dorsey down with 4 huge turnovers, none of which can be pinned on the OC and the defense was horrendous, particularly late in the 4th quarter. My main point when it comes to Dorsey is that he was not able to work with Allen at 100% of his capabilities. And in part it led to a 5-5 record. I'm not saying the Bills would have gone 8-2 if Allen ran more but anything would have helped and been better than 5-5. This IMO, was a upper management decision pushed on to the OC. I expect it to be pushed on to Brady to start this upcoming season as well.

I simply think it is wrong to make your best weapon less of a threat. By limiting his running that is what you do. Bills best chance to win a Super Bowl will always be with Allen playing at 100% of his capabilities. Not 85% or 90%. The Bills are not going to get by the Chiefs and Mahomes with Allen only playing up to 85% of his abilities. And the conference is tough right now. Bills haven't even been able to obtain the 1 seed in the last four seasons and that is with the Chiefs only obtaining it themselves twice in that span. We need Allen with 100% of his capabilities in every game, even the week 1 and 2 regular season games . Only time will tell if he has a shortened career like Cam. Allen has been a significantly better and consistent QB than Cam so I've never loved the comparison but I get why it is made. People think Cam fell off a cliff due to injuries. To me it was a bit more about Cam really only ever being completely average outside of one great year. So once Cam lost a hint of ability to age or injury, he really fell off a cliff. Once and when Allen loses a hint of ability to age or injury his ceiling should still remain much higher than Cam's. I disagree, with regards to how the Bills HC and upper management see the issue of Allen running. I do think they want less carries for Allen. I expect them to try that again to start next season. As you said, they through that game plan out the window (as they should have) when Brady took over and they were 5-5 and every game was a must win. But I do expect a similar focus of less carries for Allen to start the season next year. If the Bills are successful, maybe they will have the luxury they had in the 2020 season where Allen was not called on to carry a heavy load with his legs to end the 2020 season and the Bills went on a long winning streak. But as mentioned before, that 2020 season may never repeat itself again. Just as the 2018 and 2019 seasons for Mahomes and Jackson never repeated themselves to this point.

It was 100% a HC/upper management decision. And look, we all get why it makes sense to try and go in that direction for obvious reasons. But that does not dismiss the obvious facts that in doing so we limit one of the best weapons in Allen's arsenal. We take him down from 100% of his capabilities to 85% or 90%. We make him easier to defend and less likely to make big plays or move the chains. The offense failed and Dorsey was shown the door. Brady came in and continued the status quo from 2021 and 2022 under Daboll and Dorsey and what do you know the Bills went on a winning streak like they've always done to close out the season. I wouldn't put in stone what the number needs to be. But under Dorsey's 10 game average last year that number would have been 81 carries. That's likely far too few. 153 that Brady was on pace for might be too many for an entire season but I also think the Bills started to employ the push tush a lot last year and that is in part why Allen had a career high average of 9 attempts per game last season on Brady's 7 games to close out the season. I don't necessarily see the Bills continuing to use that tush push philosophy going forward. I think they will run it with the backs if they can. But we will see. And again, the Bills in 2021 and 2022 were over 8 carries per game with Allen in games 11-17 as well to close out the season. So this 150 carries pace is not something new to the offense.

1. Yes, history pretty clearly shows Allen should be running the ball quite a bit. Bills have the most success with that approach. Close to 20 rushing TD's? Now you are being ridiculous with that claim. Last year Allen had 15, a lot and an anomaly to previous year but still not close to 20. 2. Since 2020 what other teams are consistently outperforming the Bills offense?? Probably just KC. Suggesting the Bills offense is being outperformed seems inaccurate to me. Sure other teams get hot for one season or maybe two but the Bills have had a consistent body of work for 4 straight years now. 3. Many people were clamoring for Allen to run less last off-season. They were fools then and they are fools now if they continue to wish that IMO. You're suggesting things I haven't even stated or hinted at as if I formed opinions on them. Andy Reid or Ben Johnson as OC? Um, neither of those guys are coming as an OC to the Bills. When Ben gets a new gig it will be as a head coach. I don't believe I hinted either way my thoughts on replacing McD. For the record, I lean towards being perfectly fine with replacing McD for an offensive HC but that is an entirely separate conversation. As for the Bills recent OC choices in Brady and Dorsey, I don't think it is at all uncommon to hire from within. I see that as a nothing burger. Again, I think Dorsey was unfairly put into a position where he was forced to run Allen less to start the season last year. The Bills offense was unsuccessful, the defense was horrendous at times and he was scapegoated for failing at a new offensive philosophy that was likely forced upon him from the HC and management.

Do you want to win or have a neat passing offense like Miami and end the season on a losing streak? Was the passing offense bad or basically the same as every late season passing offense in each of the last three seasons under 3 separate coordinators? The guy everyone wanted gone in Dorsey actually had the most efficient late season passing offense too. Dorsey's demise was not utilizing Allen as a runner in the first 10 games of 2023. Something he did for the entirety of 2022 and his predecessor and successor both did as well. Allen's passing numbers games 11-17 each of the last three seasons: 2021- 60% completion 228 ypg 6.0 ypa 85 QB rating 15 TDs 7 INTs (5-2 recod) Daboll OC 2022- 61% completion 226 ypg 6.8 ypa 96 QB rating 14 TDs 4 INTs (6-0 record) Dorsey OC 2023- 61% completion 244 ypg 7.5 ypa 86 QB rating 10 TDs 7 INTs (6-1 record) Brady OC Numbers are nearly identical with the outlier being the TD : INT ratio in 2022. Last season the Bills traded in passing TD's for rushing TD's from Allen. Still near the exact same efficiency as under Daboll in 2021. I do think it is a philosophical change with some purpose behind it. With Allen at QB, he is always going to default to an aggressive playing style with throws down the field. I think the Bills want to try and shorten some of his air yards with the personnel they utilize knowing he is still going to naturally be slinging it when the opportunity presents itself. You also know with Allen the passing game floor is going to be pretty high. So you want to support him as much as you can with a ground game to match.

It's not besides the point at all. Again, people are sleeping on the role that Kincaid/Knox and Cook/Davis will play in the offense moving forward. We are not replacing Diggs this year or next year. Bills will not have a WR on the team in the foreseeable future that commands 160+ targets per year. That is not the direction the offense wants to go. Both Diggs and Davis were phased out of the offense last year and the Bills turned the season around from a 5-5 start to a 6-1 finish with the one loss to the eagles in that 7 game stretch hardly falling on offensive issues. Why are we making a big deal out of replacing two players that were phased out of the offense last year when the Bills went on their winning streak?

I'm fine with just drafting one WR this year. I think too many people are sleeping on the snap counts and targets that Kincaid/Knox and Cook/Davis are going to command this coming year. Then throw in Samuel, Shakir and Coleman. How many more snaps and targets would we be giving to rd 2-5 rookie WR? And why not see what Shorter can do in year 2 who is a former found 5 wr? And then of course you have your vet role players in MVS, Hollins and Claypool where it is very likely one of three doesn't even make the active roster because we won't have the need for that many WR's.

many, many factors that will be hard to duplicate. The bolded, like the pandemic, is basically impossible to duplicate. We see players all the time now have career years early in their careers and then never reach those same heights again. Mahomes in 2018 Jackson in 2019 Allen in 2020 They all have in common in that they were breakout seasons in their second or third year and to this date they are their best statical seasons by a wide margin.

I think the answer is yes, we want Allen running much more than the 4.6 attempts per game he was getting in the 10 games with Dorsey last year. The team was 5-5 and not playing winning football with that strategy. As I pointed out in another thread, Allen's "heavy" usage as a runner in the final seven games of the season after Brady took over was not out of the ordinary for the Bills and Allen. The low 4.8 ypc was the anomaly and that new game plan the Bills tried clearly failed as they were 5-5 and looking down the hole of missing the playoffs entirely. I do think the Bills will once again try and employ an early season game plan of less carriers for Allen. So far that has not proven to be a successful game plan outside of the 2020 season which I'm not sure we can successfully try and copy due to the unique circumstances of that year. Not just covid, but the Bills taking the league by surprise with the addition of Diggs and the emergence of Allen. Also don't think teams had totally grasped how to defend QB's like Allen and Mahomes yet in 2020. Also, in 2020, Allen ran more early in the season (first 10 games 7.2 attempts per game) and then closed the season running less (final 6 games 5.0 attempts per game). Complete opposite of what we have been seeing the last three seasons where Allen increases his carry load later in the season. Bills win/loss record in ( ) 2019- first 10 games 7.4 attempts per game (6-4) 2019- final 6 games 5.8 attempts per game (4-2) 2020- first 10 games 7.2 attempts per game (7-3) 2020- final 6 games 5.0 attempts per game (6-0) 2021- first 10 games 6.1 attempts per game (6-4) 2021- final 7 games 8.7 attempts per game (5-2) 2022- first 10 games 7.1 attempts per game (7-3) 2022- final 6 games 8.8 attempts per game (6-0) 2023- first 10 games 4.8 attempts per game (5-5) 2023- final 7 games 9.0 attempts per game (6-1) The trend the last three seasons under three different offensive coordinators has been Allen attempting 9 rushes per game to close out the final stretch of the season. For that to be the case under three different OC's is pretty telling. Only twice Allen has averaged 5.0 or less attempts per game and they yielded drastically different results for the W/L column. Last year was the only year Allen averaged less than 6 attempts per game over the first 10 games of the season. Only twice has he even been under 7 attempts per game in the first 10 games, over the last five seasons. The other was 6.1 attempts in 2021 and lead to a 6-4 record, not as good as the 7-3 records when Allen had over 7 attempts per game.

none of your replies here are making sense to me. What am I missing? why would it be shocking that Allen, one of the most gifted quarterbacks in scrambling and taking off and running, why would that trait coupled with his passing not lead to greater success? why do you think the bills will not start slow? They lost the opening game of the season in two of the last three years. They could easily start slow. so, are you going to provide the numbers? Or are you going to make me look them up and post them? I already provided the rushing attempts breakdown.

More difficult to pass late in the season? Shocking.

but I thought you were concerned about Allen being an also ran in the postseason because the bills can never secure the one seed? You’re not gonna get the one if you start slow. They have done a good job of ending the season on significant winning streaks. but it’s been the start of the season or an October /November stretch that has killed them.

FC pointed out nothing. Allen ran a similar number of times to end each of the last three seasons. Furthermore: 2021: end of season 5 game winning streak 2022: end of season 8 game winning streak 2023: end of season 6 game winning streak wins over a month or two are short streaks? That's half the NFL regular season. I don't believe it is accurate to define those winning streaks as short term success. Without those winning streaks the Bills seasons are drastically different.

Which is the anomaly below? 2021: 6.1 vs. 8.7 2022: 7.6 vs. 8 2023: 4.8 vs. 9 Those are Allen's rushing attempts per game in each of the last three seasons. The latter number in each year are his attempts in the final 7 games of that regular season. The former number are the attempts per game prior to the final seven. Allen rushing more later in the season is nothing new and he didn't run significantly more in the final seven games then anything we saw in 2021 or 2022 seasons. What was significantly different was how few times he ran the ball to start the 2023 season. What?

Allen's regular season turnover percentage is 2.7% Allen's postseason turnover percentage is 1.3% Allen's regular season TD percentage is 5.9% Allen's post season TD percentage is 5.8% He's been remarkably consistent with a high TD percentage in both regular season and post season. Has a dramatically lower turnover percentage in the post season vs. regular season. We've seen low turnover Josh Allen in the post season and it still hasn't even been enough to get the Bills to a Super Bowl. Is your opinion above from your turnover narrative thread, that Allen is an also ran playoff QB because of his 4.5 TD : 1 TO ratio in the postseason?

Allen's ceiling is what he has done in the playoffs. Something like 27-6 TD to Turnover ratio? That puts him in the 4.5 to 1 Aaron Rodgers category. Despite the 4.5 to 1 TD to turnover ratio in the postseason, Allen's decreased turnovers in the post season has not resulted in the Bills getting closer to the Super Bowl. Less turnovers in the post season without an increase in TD's would not have helped the Bills Super Bowl chances. But scoring even more TD's along with more turnovers would have possibly helped.