Sammy Watkins' Rib

Cousins for back up QB!

Can't really tell if you are saying this in jest or not. Their 2020 seasons statistically were a wash. Really no significant difference in QBR or Passer Rating. And Allen was the obvious chose over Mahomes in terms of added value to his team relative to the supporting cast each player had. I'm glad at least a handful of voters gave Allen their first place votes.

Or Nelson Agholor. Basically which ever of the three we will be able to afford.

Yeah Mahomes was a monster last year. Lead the entire league in passer rating on 3rd and 10+ with a 122 rating. A little bit different story this year for Mahomes though where I think Allen over took him. I did hear someone say Mahomes lead the league in rushing first downs on 3rd and 10+ though or 3rd and 13+. So that could raise the QBR. But yeah, basically both QB's have been consistently very good on 3rd and long. Not a big surprise with their mobility and big arms.

Zero, where do you find this QBR stat for Mahomes? I'd like to see what Allen's QBR is for the same situation. And 3rd and 10+. You may have seen my other posts on the same topic showing that Allen, like Mahomes, is one of the best in the league on 3rd and 10+. But I don't have QBR. Just passer rating and first down conversion rate.

Yep. And it's because the talent gap between the two has greatly diminished to the point where the rest of the pieces make up the primary difference. And this really isn't just a Mahomes vs. Allen thing. Pretty much all the current top 4-5 QBs in the NFL are close enough in talent that the team really becomes the deciding factor.

As he should. He's not as big as Allen. Look at Murray in comparison to Watson or Mahomes. The bigger the athlete the less agility and acceleration they have. I think Allen is a freak when it comes to athletic ability for a guy his size. Mahomes is an athlete himself but in a different way then Allen. A fair comparison size wise for Allen is Newton. I think Allen shows just a bit more agility and acceleration than Newton.

I'll take Allen. Not just because he's "my guy". But also because I like where he is trending. We've possibly seen the best from Mahomes already. He's not likely to ever have a better supporting cast. IMO we could swap QB's now and it wouldn't have changed a thing other than we would be watching Allen and the Chiefs getting ready to play the Bucs tomorrow. Mahomes by a billion? If we are talking about career accomplishments then yes. No doubt. But the idea of "Allen having caught Mahomes" is not about career accomplishments. It's about is he on the same talent level at this moment in time? Would GM's take Allen over Mahomes today because they think that talent gap has narrowed enough and Allen is likely to hit his pre-draft ceiling? GM's that like Allen are looking at his resume and seeing that he has taken giants leaps forward every year, but up a 2020 season on par with Mahomes despite having a clear personnel disadvantage. Taking that information and projecting it to the future.

Not going by total stats. Going by two efficiency metrics. QBR and passer rating. Totals do not matter. But if we want to dive into totals... Allen only played a half against Miami in week 16 and had three TD's in that half. He played about half the fourth quarter against both New England and Denver. I believe Mahomes lead the NFL in interceptable passes thrown this year? Would have to double check that but thought I read that stat somewhere. And I don't know what the number is between Mahomes vs Allen but I would be absolutely shocked if Mahomes had more dropped/called back TD's then Allen did this year. And then of course there are the 9 rushing/receiving TD's from Allen this year.

LOL. What? You're a Chiefs fan! I always assumed your avatar was just maybe a player you really liked or an image you liked. For some reason never made the connection. I mean you don't seem to post as much about the Chiefs as Zerovoltz unless I haven't been paying attention enough.

We need to hope that Kelce starts to age quickly. Most TE's are able to play deep into their 30's but there is a production decline that starts around the age of 33 from looking at the stats of guys like Witten and Tony G. Gronk's decline started much earlier but he was always banged up. Kelce, 31, likely has at least two more all-pro years in him. Hopefully no more after that though. I agree that Diggs and Hill are probably a wash or very close to it. But Kelce >>>Beasley. Kelce is the difference. He's nearly unstoppable. He may have lead the league in receiving this year if he played in the final game.

Hopefully this is the year we find that playmaker in the draft. I think that is the only place we will find him. Doubtful in free agency. The one guy in free agency i would look at maybe his Curtis Samuel. To be fair to Beane, the Bills 2020 roster was still really good. Most years in the past it's probably good enough to get you to the Super Bowl. Or at least not blown out in the conference title game. Teams don't typically have two talents like Hill and Kelce to go along with already strong rosters. It'd be like the Patriots when they had Moss and Welker trading in Welker for a prime Gronk to pair with Moss.

Not at all. Allen's trajectory has always been a year or two behind the other top QB's. This has been pretty much true since his days in Firebaugh. Take Allen's MVP level breakout season for instance in year three. Going back to Wentz, the trend has been players breaking out in year 2. Wentz, Mahomes, Jackson. Even lesser QB's like Goff, Turbitzky and Murray probably had bigger year two breakouts then Allen's year two breakout. Allen broke out in year 3. A good part of that definitely had to do with the acquisition of Diggs. At the same time we shouldn't give all the credit to Diggs, Brown and Beasley for Allen's improvement from his rookie year with Curly, Moe and Larry. Diggs, Brown and Beasley all had career years with Allen. Definitely a mutual relationship. My point is this if I can sum it up: The talent gap is narrowed enough between the two that at this point, it is the rosters that puts one QB over the other in terms of team success. Such is life. Peyton was the better QB over Brady for probably their first 5-6 years of their careers but Peyton never sniffed a super bowl in that time span. I don't know that Josh would have been anywhere close to Mahomes 2018 numbers had he started with KC's roster. Allen still needed more time to develop. But definitely his numbers would be a lot better than his first two years with the Bills. But by year three for Allen the gap between the two has certainly narrowed enough where factors outside the QB play a more prominent role in team success. In terms of pure statistical success for the QB's, 2020 alone, it's essentially a wash. Their regular season stats were virtually identical by both QBR and passer rating efficiency metrics, about a point in favor of Mahomes for each.

Nobody is denying Mahomes doesn't get the best out of these players. The point though is Mahomes HAS these players. Allen didn't have a single one until this year. Now he has one, Mahomes has had two for his entire career. Roberts also has 7 receptions for about 60 yards and 0TD's in two years with the Bills. Not exactly Hill numbers with Alex Smith.

So you think he wouldn't have developed into an all-pro WR without Mahomes? He had a great second year. For a receiver who was playing RB at Oklahoma State just a few years prior. Sorry if I mislead you. The guy was a stud with all-pro talent before Mahomes threw passes to him. That's the point I a making.

I'm aware he was a first team all pro return specialist in 2016. His 2017 year was really good. In only 13 starts and 15 games played...75 receptions 1,1183 yards 7TDs 15.8 avg (2nd highest of his career). We can split hairs if we want but the dude made himself before Mahomes IMO. Not to mention isn't the saying always that it takes a few years for WR's to really produce at the NFL level? He was only in his second year in 2017 and broke out in that second year.

If Allen brings us a Super Bowl. Yes.

I don't think it should so easily be discounted. Those two weapons were both first team all-pro's before Mahomes ever threw a pass to either one. Mahomes put the Chiefs team over the top. No question. But both Kelce and Hill had put themselves individually over the top before Mahomes became the starter. That's really the whole point of the debate. Allen has not had a weapon like Hill or Kelce until this season. Now he has one in Diggs and boom MVP caliber season from Allen. Mahomes has had two his entire career. Projecting both players careers into the future, it's possible but very unlikely Mahomes will ever play with more talent then he has had these last three years. It's more conceivable that Allen could play with more talent. What is unclear at this time is if that talent gap closes or even flip flops will the W/L and statistical outcomes change?

Keep in mind we are talking about 15-20 year careers. A lot can change in terms of personnel. Heck, Brady went like 10 years without a super bowl win. I totally agree that you basically are what your stats and achievements say you are. It's the only way you can compare players. But at the same time I am not naïve enough to not notice one dude is in possibly the best situation we have ever seen in the history of the league. That alone is what keeps this whole conversation a debate. If it were Allen that had the stacked team and Mahomes was still getting over on him and everyone else it would be a slam-dunk case closed debate that basically nobody will ever catch Mahomes and it's only a matter of time before Mahomes catches Brady. But the Chiefs will have to replace Hill and Kelce eventually. The really scary thing though is the Chiefs still have Reid. Has the guy ever not taken any QB and not gotten the very best out of them?

It wouldn't have been a guarantee they beat the Rams. Far from it. 50/50 probably. Since Kupp was out maybe 60/40 in favor of the Chiefs?

You simply can't make a fair comparison of the two given one has far superior weapons and a coach with a HOF track record as an offensive mastermind. I'm very confident you switch both QB's the Bills still lose the AFC title game. That said, the NFL is a results oriented business and you can't argue with Mahomes results so he gets the nod until Allen and the Bills find a way to get it done in the postseason. That said, it's certainly not unreasonable for some GM's to consider Allen the better prospect. But Mahomes is the safest and at worst his ceiling is just a tad below Allen's. We should all be encouraged by the fact that on que, Allen delivered big time this season as a bona fide top 5 QB in the league in his very first season with a legitimate all-pro WR. At the same time it's going to be a tough road for the Bills as long as the Chiefs have Hill and Kelce to go along with Mahomes.

Certainly looks like Feliciano punched him first. FWIW, I think it's all a bunch to do about nothing. Glad neither player was ejected.

For the most part. I think we have seen the best season from him. But I think he and the Ravens will always be a threat to win a Super Bowl. Winning 11+ games every year is half the battle just to give yourself a shot.

That's true.

I've been considering Carr the Kirk Cousins of the AFC for a couple years now. Nice players but they don't seem to show up in big moments or for big games.