TPS

McD did say these last two games would be used to give some of the younger guys a chance to see what they can do. His pay relative to performance makes it a no-brainer.

The ME is a bi-partisan f-up. Bush-Clinton-Bush-Obama (Clinton) doesn't matter. The perfect example of this war party is Bill Kristol, who is now a regular on MSNBC, that so-called liberal channel. Not when it comes to war...

What's driving current economic growth?

I still think D.Thompson will be the key for Bills O. They have to connect when he gets his deep opportunity. Of course, the line has to give Allen time just to get the Opp.

That's why I think D. Thompson will be critical. Allen will need to connect when he gets the opportunity.

Trump bringing on Bolton doesn't fit the story.

Assuming they keep all of their picks, I'm looking forward to Day 3 and those last 3 picks you list, as all 3 will all be somewhere around the 132 to 144 range. They have KC's R4, Oak's R5, and their own R5. For comparison, both Milano (163) and Teller (166) were R5 picks.

Yes, I was focused on Consumer debt which is mostly based on prime. As we covered, we'll see how much longer libor lasts... The YC inverts because of the Fed raising its FFR target.

Now you are changing the discussion. I've focused on short-term rates all along. A change in the FFR leads to a change in the Prime and all other short rates. The majority of short-term and variable rate loans (credit cards, HELOCs, etc) in the US are marked up over Prime, which is marked up over FFR. Of course the rate for an individual firm or HH will be based on credit risk, but everything relates back to the benchmark. The original point: the FED controls the FFR, not the market. When you are the monopoly supplier of reserves, you control the rate. [The FED changes its target based on its inflation target]

I don't believe that small of a revision will have an impact on stocks today, especially since stock prices are forward looking. Any pain today will be driven by the current chaos coming out of DC...

What maturities are you talking about in the bond and loan markets? As I stated in one post, Buffett will get a different rate than you--I thought that would be clear it was related to risk?

I'm not fixated on a definition, I'm fixated on the issue of whether the FED sets the FFR (my position) or whether the market does (Sherpa's position). The Fed sets it because it controls the supply of reserves. When the FED raises the FFR, ALL short rates rise with it. Sherpa suggests "the market" ultimately controls the rate, which is just not true. You can quibble about spreads being slightly different than the stated prime rate, but that's like saying all oil prices are equal to the price of the WTI benchmark--all prices move as the benchmark moves. In the short rate market, The FED sets the benchmark FFR (which is the ultimate cost of funds banks face), and all other rates move based on it. If someone wants to give me an example of when the market set the FFR, then I'm all ears.

The death of libor was dictated by uk regulators last year, not 10 years. When the rates are dictated by a very small club, it’s too easy to manipulate. Market participants no longer want this type of “administered” system as well. Regardless, the main point stands: the Fed controls the FFR and the stated Prime rate is a 3% markup. If anyone doubts this, just look up the published numbers.

Libor was important. Too much fraud by the banks manipulating it has it going by the wayside. Yes, the prime is the nominal quoted rate that is the starting point for customers. Warren buffet will be charged a lower rate than you or me.

I’m sorry I haven’t been clear: the Fed controls the fed funds rate. The prime rate is a 3% markup over ffr. Do banks have to raise the prime when the fed raises its ffr? No, but they always do else their profits will fall. Almost all large banks move in lock step. Again, The Fed controls the supply of reserves which allows it to control the FfR regardless of the demand. Mad for abnormal times, we just went through 6 years of abnormal, and the Fed has shown it can and will intervene to provide liquidity in any market to any degree. We simply disagree.

In addition, no one wants to be known as the president who "lost Afghanistan." gee, I wonder how Putin got him to do this too?

I said the prime rate is a mark up over the Fed Funds rate which the Fed has absolute control over. The Fed controls the supply of reserves which is the source of the FF market. Banks borrow and lend the existing supply, of which the Fed controls completely. The Fed's quiver is unlimited, which allows it to intervene in any market it wants to any degree. If the Fed decided to set a target on the 10-year (or any maturity) treasury yield, it could. The Fed displayed this power from 2008 - 2014. It bought $4 trillion worth of assets over this period, and it could just as easily have bought $10 trillion, but then we would no longer call it "the market system." sorry if I hit you.

If you invest, I dare you to fight the Fed. Fed funds are the cost of banks’ funds, and the prime rate is a mark up of 3% over this cost. The Fed controls this rate period. The Fed can also control any rate it wants, as it showed with QE in the long term treasury market and the MBS market. You are seriously misinformed. As I recall, you are the person who thinks the size of the Fed’s balance sheet is a problem too... Did they outsource it through Halliburton?

Your second sentence is pure nonsense. the Fed sets short term interest rates and can set it any level they want regardless of money demand.

The Syria decision is interesting, and his preelection stance was one of a few things I liked about Trump. Why now though? As most should know, I don't buy the Russiagate nonsense, so what is the motive? He's surrounded by the Neocons who have influenced regime change regardless of who is president, yet this appears to be a 180 to that policy (since it was the real reason for the US presence there). Seems it must be related to the current Turkey-Kurd issue, and therefore possibly the Khashoggi murder? and if Trump is not being influenced by Bolton/Pompeo, then who? Do I need to re-read the Deep State or Q threads? ?

I was thinking they would most likely try and take away Foster, which means DT will need to make the deep plays. It would be a major step forward for Allen if they can get 17-20 Sunday. A tall task...

@LABillzFan One of my favorite all time comedies. Unfortunately I don't know how to edit it to crop it after Durante's "The BIG W! Here's to finding the BIG W this Sunday!

As I posted some weeks back, it looks like Trump's trade war is has done nothing to improve the trade balance, and the goods deficit is widening. This will mean 4thQ Real GDP will come in below 3%, unless there is a "supply side miracle" and business spending picks up.... https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-current-account-deficit-widened-in-third-quarter-11545231771?mod=hp_major_pos10

I was wrong. I now see how the Russkies influenced the election....

I hope we get "The Big W..." too. (I hope this works...)