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TPS

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Everything posted by TPS

  1. Hope he starts this week.
  2. Yeah, we're seeing how important E.Woods was to this line. Finding a center to anchor the interior would be my #1 priority next year.
  3. McD said in yesterday's presser they were evaluating him at LG and Sirles at RT, and would look at the film...
  4. In case some of his fans didn't notice, he was in at LG for Ducasse on a few plays, then came in for Miller who got hurt. will be interesting to see if he earns more time after McD watches the film. time to look at what they have in all of the young guys.
  5. If Allen is healthy, he needs to play and get experience.
  6. It supports your point, revenues are Lower. The reason Revenues were up the first half of the fiscal year (which starts in October) was because we were still under 2017 tax rates for the first 4 of 6 months. If you look at the data, once the tax cut went into effect in February, revenues went down relative to revenues in the same month in the previous tax year. For example, January 2018 revenues are higher than January 2017, but February 2018 revenues--and every month after that--has lower revenues than 2017 (except April, which is also based on 2017 rates). The article posted (by LA) was a biased editorial, not an analysis.
  7. The article is fudging the numbers to support a point. The first half of the fiscal year ends in March; for the first four months of the current fiscal year Oct - Jan, revenues in 2018 > 2017 (for each month individually) because they are based on the previous tax rates; tax revenues are lower in every month after Jan except April, which is also based on 2017 tax rates. Here is the Treasury Report: TAble 1 has the data.
  8. State debt matters; national, not so much.
  9. Star made one great play today!
  10. I enjoyed this more than the “if Allen fails at the end of 2019” post...
  11. As you can tell, I wasn't sure. It does matter if you're talking about building from scratch and drafting your own QB, as the Bills are doing. Appreciate the data though.
  12. Wentz was drafted in 2016, if that's who you're using there. McD had a good blue print. The D is Super Bowl caliber in year 2. If Allen Pan's out, they can make a run in 2020. They did screw up on not providing the vet/mentor and going with NP. They will address O as much as possible next year.
  13. That's a problem with most government budget processes--there are no incentives to come in under. I've found it's also difficult to implement changes during times of forced cuts.
  14. Here is where you have the BS issue wrong. The Fed "finances" its assets by crediting the reserve position of banks, creating a "liability" On its BS. However, it's no more a liability for the Fed than are USD, which also show up as a liability. Because of its unlimited ability to create bank reserves with a keystroke, it always has the ammunition to buy assets--it can intervene anytime and to any degree, always. We debated this issue a lot here when the Fed was in the midst of its QE to infinity, and quite a few people believed it would lead to high inflation, which it did not, as I argued. Of course it's not responsible for FP, but you also have FP's impact wrong. Deficits absolutely are expansionary, and my argument has been that Trump's FP changes are revving up demand relative to our ability to supply more output because labor is getting more and more scarce--sort of where we agree, one cause of inflation is excess demand relative to supply. Btw, trying to compare US to a country that has external debt denominated in a foreign currency (USD in V's case) is not a valid comparison.
  15. The size of the BS has nothing to do with the Fed's ability to handle the next downturn. As I once mentioned to an infamous poster here in the middle of the crisis, the Fed can never run out of "jack", to use his term. So, yes, you do need to explain why the reduction in its BS is needed. There is NO economic rationale for what the size of its BS should be. A bigger deficit stimulates economic activity. It is the most important reason for the 4.2% 2Q growth rate. Faster growth leads to lower unemployment and eventually faster wage growth, which will increase inflation--the Fed's ultimate target. This is the prediction I made (probably on this thread) back around January: The tax cuts and spending increases create larger deficits which are juicing the economy when unemployment is near what's considered full employment; this will cause the Fed to raise rates faster and higher than anticipated, causing the next recession. Btw, its BS is over $4 trillion.
  16. Expanding the deficit when we are near full employment adds fuel to the economy at the wrong time. As I said, if bigger deficits lead to overheating for an extended period, then the Fed will be forced to act more forcefully. 2018Q2 is currently the only quarter under Trump >4%, which IS a result of the tax cuts and spending increases. I expect Q3--which comes out next week, to be close to 4% as well. The underlying problem will be the wage pressures that come with a hot economy at < 4% unemployment. Why does the Fed need to reduce its balance sheet? Certainly it affected markets as it accumulated assets, but by what economic rationale is it necessary to reduce it? In fact, its BS will automatically decline as the assets are paid down (its MBS holdings, for example) and/or mature. The size of its BS doesn't mean a hill of beans to the real economy... We disagree on the impact from S-H in 1930. Economies were already declining rapidly, and would continue regardless of S-H.
  17. I think he's always been highly motivated. The difference this year is they now have four good pass rushers they have to account for instead of 1 or 2.
  18. Not for me. It is entertaining, however, to watch the conservatives squirm as they move back to trillion dollar territory.
  19. The reasoning is very straightforward, tax cuts (and spending increases) have widened the deficit, juicing the economy when it is near full employment. If they lead to overheating for an extended period, the Fed will raise rates faster and higher than expected. And the deficit numbers are in: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-government-debt-rises-17-in-fiscal-2018-1539626598?mod=hp_lead_pos4
  20. Almost all business taxes are passed along as a "cost" and therefore influence the price of goods. You are conflating a demand-side collapse with tariffs. The US economy was already collapsing when S-H was passed in summer of 1930.
  21. There was a photo of him being carted to the locker room with Allen.
  22. The line has been ok, but they need it to be better than ok. I think the #1 need is a center to anchor it going forward during the Allen era.
  23. Yes, it's a topic better suited for mid-week, but I'm too disappointed with this outcome and wanted a distraction. Maybe I should've thrown The Two Towers on instead...
  24. Ducasse was carted off with what seemed to be a significant injury. It's time to see what this young buck can do.
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