TPS

Yes, as it states it's a "conspiracy theory" about why Trump fired Bolton. And "plausible" does not mean fact.

I thought this would tempt you... the Fed's target rate is the Fed Funds Rate which is set in a band that's 25 BP wide, and (of course) during the day there are temporary liquidity squeezes that force it to intervene as necessary So that it stays within target at the end of each day--that's the Fed's primary role day-to-day, ensuring the liquidity of the payments system. Given the legacy of reserves from QEs, the Fed had to start paying interest on those bank reserves (ioer) as a way to manage supply in the FFR market. The impact of those reserves on the FFR market also mean the repo market has become as much if not more important than the FFR market--the repo market is now where most of the demand for day-to-day liquidity is met. While the Fed is much more active in the repo market, it has not (as yet) implemented a formal policy there. Under normal conditions the two are tied by arbitrage. Given this temporary cash squeeze in the repo market, the Fed is acting--$50 bil yesterday, and committing $75 bill today. Until (if?) we get back to a world of minimal excess reserves, I guarantee the Fed will provide the liquidity in the repo market to keep its rate tied to the FFR. And, It may become a formal part of its policy set (which includes ioer) to manage short rates. Regarding QE winding down, as I've always stated, there is no economic reason (it's more philosophical) for the FEd to shrink its balance sheet. In fact, what this shows is that by doing so they've come into conflict with their day-to-day role. It's a temporary blip and a simple solution: 1) slow or stop the wind down; 2) provide all the temporary liquidity the system needs day-to-day in order to meet your short term rate target. while the goals of reducing its BS and maintaining short rates can conflict at times, the latter will always take precedent because that's its most important role--ensuring the liquidity of the payments system. If they really believe they need to reduce their BS, they could still do it gradually over time via mbs payoffs.

A plausible theory about Bolton's firing... https://awfulavalanche.wordpress.com/2019/09/15/juicy-john-bolton-firing-conspiracy-theory/

Should be an interesting couple days with the Fed meeting and announcement. A lot of turmoil in the money markets this week. While I expect them to cut its target rate by 25 basis points, I (as would Trump) would really like to see a more dramatic move of 50. It would provide a boost to the stock market, bring the $ down a bit (and help with trade issues), and Trump wouldn't grump so much at Powell. This is a good piece on some of the issues. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-18/divided-fed-reluctant-to-forecast-more-cuts-decision-day-guide the last paragraph explains what was behind my post from a couple months ago stating the Fed would/should cut by 50 BP. Added: This guy agrees... https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-18/the-fed-should-cut-interest-rates-more-than-expected?srnd=premium

AFter last night, Myles Garrett.

L. Alexander epitomizes what McDermott wants his players and team to be, in and out of the stadium. Saying you are a Bills' fan is a badge of honor.

The one loss will be to the Jets as the Bills rest their starters for the playoffs...

You can't beat the DS....

Darryl Johnson jr. given his pedigree, I thought they would bring him along very slowly. It looks like the game isn't too big for him, and I expect him to become a force as the season proceeds.

I'm sure they do. From my experience in picking against the spread, I've been successful taking the underdog when it looks like the favorite may overlook the game. It happens a lot with the Pats, probably because they know they will always end up beating a team they are favored to beat by double digits. The only team I would not consider this year is the Fins... So a trap game to me is also one where the heavy favorite (double digits) lollygags through a game, still winning, but way under the spread. As I mentioned, I don't see McD allowing the Bills to get complacent, especially after only two games. I think the O throws up 30+ Sunday.

Yeah, the Bills are going to need Harry and Ed pushing that pocket in two Sundays, the known key to disrupting and beating Voldemort. I have a feeling Darryl Johnson's counts are going to keep growing too....Look for him to make a game-changing play in the near future...

I hope someone does an analysis of DJ's play as my indicator says he's done very well. To my untrained eye, if I don't notice you making a bad play during the game, and I do notice you making a good play or two, then you must have done well.

Found this on BR's site: https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/9/16/20867762/snap-count-notes-buffalo-bills-at-new-york-giants DJ went from 18% v the Jets to 37% against the Giants; Shaq went from 31% to 41%. While I'm thinking this was designed as a way to stop Barkley, it may also indicate growing confidence in both players, as well as keeping Jerry fresher in his "old age"...

My impression of the game was that McD had Shaq at RDE and DJ at LDE a bit more in the first half because they can set the edge better than Jerry and Trent, and that was part of the "stop Barkley" game plan. Curious to know if this was true...?

Darn, they don't have D. Johnson's. Seemed like he was noticeably higher, as was shaq. I guess you can infer from Trent's decrease that DJ increased...?

No, but I am getting old, so it's getting difficult to remember all of the many, many TBDisms....

I think the one truthful statement he made was, "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot someone, and I wouldn't lose any voters...."

It's also a trap game with the Pats looming on the horizon. However, MCd is good at keeping them focused, and the Offense is getting better each week.

And the deficit topped $1 trillion, though it may drop slightly below for the fiscal year as September is a tax payment month.

And let's not discount the fact his first two games have been on the road, where the D line has the advantage, especially for a rookie.

Ty is better at pass pro than Cody, at least for now. Also, it's certainly tougher on the road, so let's see how they do in their first home game.

Hazards of not checking before you hit submit....

I like how the Offense is trending. they really should have put up 27 on the Jets, but for the TOs. Without the TOs, they put up 28 on the Giants. Assuming no let down, they should put 30+ on the board in their first home game against another middling D. Hopefully we'll see some big plays too. The D showed they corrected their #1 weakness, the Run, by shutting down Bell and Barkley (for 3 quarters). I think they hold the Bengals to < 20. i don't care if Taron Johnson and singletary miss this game, but I sure hope they'll be back fr week 4....

I think D. Johnson and Shaq need mentioning here. It appeared they got a lot of playing time because they are bigger ends to contain the outside and combat Barkley. both played well.

D. Johnson and Shaq.