TPS

There is always hope...

I liked their body language after they picked EJ in R1. They knew they did a good job--they got their guy AND extra picks.

I wanted to give you a better explanation 3rd.Inflation, as measured by rising consumer prices, has several sources: 1. Too much financed demand relative to the ability to produce goods. 2. Supply shocks (like oil prices) that raise the cost of production. 3. A depreciation of the $ exchange rate can increase the price of imports. 3. Since we import about 20% of our goods, then a depreciation of the $ will tend to raise the price of imports, which also means domestic competitors can raise their prices a bit. 2. I've argued that short run commodity prices are now heavily influenced by financial "bets." That means price spikes caused by those bets can filter into the core CPI by raising input costs. The impact from QE2 is a perfect example of this influence. However, since financial bets can't influence the underlying demand, it's a temporary influence; investors can't influence longer run prices. 1. This is the key driver of inflation--increased demand for goods and services relative to our ability to produce them. As I've constantly argued, inflationary pressures will remain subdued as long as we have high unemployment and low capital capacity utilization rates. What the Fed has done: 1. Bought several trillion dollars in bad assets from Wall Street banks, which increases "excess reserves" held by the Fed--these are electronic credits on the Fed's balance sheet. They represent potential loan power of banks. These have no impact on inflation; bank loans for spending on goods and services does. The level of reserves has almost ZERO influence on bank lending. 2. Bought several trillions of dollars of mortgage assets and treasuries from banks, HFs, and other investors. These are investment funds, so the key question is what those investors will do with the cash? They buy more assets, but which ones? They've "invested" in commodities (especially precious metals), they've taken advantage of the "carry trade" investing in foreign assets (causing the $ to decline); and they buy stocks, because there are very few opportunities for double-digit returns. Much of the activity here was based on "expectations" that the Fed's actions would cause inflation, so the actions of investors can bring about what they expect, but only temporary if the underlying demand is not there. 3. All of the Fed's actions have kept interest rates at historic lows. This is the traditional channel for how monetary policy is supposed to stimulate the economy, but not in a severe balance sheet recession when consumers and firms are focused on paying down debt. Conclusion: the Fed's ineffectiveness has to do with the fact that monetary policy doesn't directly impact aggregate demand, so it's main tool--low interest rates--has not been effective. Balance sheet recessions take longer to recover from. My recent prediction of recovery was based on (for one) the fact that consumers have started borrowing again, which is one of the key economic drivers, but this has recently been tempered by the impact of the payroll tax and sequestration spending cuts. However, it appears to me that the underlying momentum is still there. Conclusion2: Dopes like Tasker have to fudge numbers (of commodity indices) to support their religious economic belief that the Fed's "money printing" has indeed caused inflation. Commodity prices experienced a bubble in 2008 and the recession caused a dramatic collapse in those prices (from a value of 220 in July 08 to 98 in Feb 09). Of course they recovered somewhat from the bottom as the economy stabilized. In my view, the Fed's QE2 caused commodities to rise from nov2010 to May2011, but it was driven by investor bets. His view can't explain why commodity prices are lower today than they were over two years ago DESPITE the ongoing QE3 to infinity. All he can say is don't put him into a "narrow timeline." Rather than admit his worldview from his hilltop is wrong, he has to stubbornly hold to it and say "eventually." And eventually he will be right, but not because of his failed theory. Inflationary pressures will emerge as the economy picks up steam over the next couple years and the Fed's only defense is to raise interest rates in order to reduce the demand for loans. I look forward to that day so he (and Magox) can tell me "I told you so."

No. Monetary Policy is simply not effective in a severe balance sheet recession.

Yes, very good theory; it will happen eventually....

It's been a relatively ineffective policy, but it hasn't led to what you inflationistas predicited...

Funny comment by Brandon to EJ: "Nathan [hackett] is probably upstairs running around the building."

According to the Indianapolis Star article, Indy took a cap hit from Hughes' remaining amortized bonus. The Bills are only on the hook for this year's salary. I believe the net difference in salaries was < $200k--the Bills have a slighly higher salaried player. Just looked at the article again, and it's not clear about the salary differences, but Indy is taking a cap hit from the dead bonus money.

I think one real question mark will be the run defense. Can Pettine fix it with the same linemen we had last year?

This is what I was wondering--what's the net cap hit? It appears pretty small.

Whoever wins the competition between those two starts; not EJ. I don't want to see him thrown into the fire right away. I'd like to see Kolb as the starter, then use EJ in short yardage situations with the read option. I think that would be a good way to break him in.

In his post-draft comments Marrone said he thinks they have a good group of O-linemen and that the was looking forward to working with them (and O-line coach) and taking a little more hands-on approach in that area. "Teaching them up."

I'm picturing that end around play with EJ at QB and CJ at RB, what's a defense to do? Will EJ give it to Goodwin, or hand it to CJ, or keep it and run, or keep and hit TJ deep?

This from the analysis sounds like he was meant for Pettine:"Versatile defender who could prove to be a moveable "chess piece" for a creative defensive coordinator. Just starting to scratch the surface of his potential..."

I'm hoping the run on QBs starts in R2 with Jax.

Ok, no qb yet, perfect set up to trade again if there's a dance partner...

Could Jets go QB next?

I guess KC needs more time to think about it...trying to trade?

Some possibilities: If a QB goes prior to 8, I think it forces the Bills' hand and they take the QB they like most. If not, then they can go with either a trade or, if no takers, they take the top player left on their board.

A combination of so many needs and too few top tier players. Best option is a trade back to mid-round.

The verdict is in, Krugman won.... http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/economic-argument-over-paul-krugman-won-150247189.html

The more I think about it, the more I lean toward defense. While we lament the lack of a QB, when was the last time the Bills had a defense in the top 15? Without looking at the data, I think having a D ranked at the bottom the past several years has contributed to more losses than anything Fitzpatrick did. I say get Pettine a couple more playmakers. I hope Jordan is there.

And changing to the chained CPI is way to cut spending without calling it a cut. Politicians...

of course, and he gets the best healthcare package in the world too. It's self-interest for those who make the laws...

If there is any certainty in the #1 pick, I am certain it won't be Patterson.