
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower
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Everything posted by D. L. Hot-Flamethrower
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This weekend: Bengals-Bills Bucs-Niners-Chiefs Cardinals Next Week: Bills over Chiefs Bengals over Titans Packers over Niners Bucs over Cards Next: Bills over Bengals Packers over Bucs SB: Bills over Packers
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*UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower replied to JGMcD2's topic in The Stadium Wall
I just looked at Josh and according to PFR he had a 19 this year compared 18 last.....so much for regression Oliver has gone 6, 8 and 10 this year. -
A Psychoanalysis of the Flawed(?) Bills
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower replied to theRalph's topic in The Stadium Wall
Are you calling me Sigmund Fraud? -
Hard nosed coach motivating a player is likely, if it is to believed to start with. And, what was the context? Hurt feelings in that business should mean very little. Did this happen before they won 8 of 9, I'm guessing it did.
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How Long will Bill Belichick Remain Coaching?
D. L. Hot-Flamethrower replied to Nextmanup's topic in The Stadium Wall
Saturday is it for him after he gets his azz kicked again! Good riddance you cheating piece of dog *****. -
Probably needs to go down to Bama and work for Saban now on a rehab assignment.
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https://theathletic.com/3030201/2021/12/23/hate-nfl-analytics-based-decisions-the-math-adds-up-more-often-than-you-might-think/ Some examples where decisions that were analytics-based may have helped this season. I'm not a pro-analytics or pro-old school. But, I do get a kick out of guys like Bradshaw and Long, everything is black and white with these tools. Doug must have been close at least, especially in volume. Yes I agree. I remember Belichick going for it against Peyton Manning and the Colts years ago. If I remember correctly the score was tied and it was fourth down from about his own 25 and he went and got stopped. His reasoning? We weren't going to stop Peyton tonight!
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https://www.forbes.com/sites/liamfox/2021/08/12/how-the-nfl-uses-analytics-according-to-the-lead-analyst-of-a-super-bowl-champion/?sh=759e4b5424e6 To be fair, analytics means much more than just going for it on fourth down of course. This article talks about Doug Pedersen and how his decisions to go for it on 4th down and 2 pointers likely helped their SB run. I think being receptive to new ways of thinking (innovation) can give you a short -term advantage. I also think not giving adequate weight to experience can be deadly. Excellent post! To have a sample size large enough for some of these situations they'd have to include ALL games and all teams otherwise as you say they'd be too small. And, as Gunner pointed out, the teams in question and they're abilities must be considered as well which reduces sample sizes.
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Yeah I wasn't thinking about that, more the fourth down from the 18. I believe he said he wanted to get his top run defenders on the field and that was why he called the ill-fated time out. I'd also add that if your defense is as soft as a team like San Diego that must be considered. I also don't think that just looking at win probability of a given situation should be the default for a decision.
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For years and years, NFL coaches made decisions based almost completely on heuristics. For those unsure of what a heuristic is https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heuristic. Essentially, it is a rule of thumb, or trial and error aiding in decision making. For example, you don't go for it from your own 18 on 4th down, early, and in a close game. Analytics came along and it including looking at your chances of winning a game if you went for it on 4th down much more. Initially, this challenge to the old line approach proved to be correct because coaches had evolved into punting way to often in opponents territory (Think Doug Marrone punting from the 32). I would argue that analytics has been taken too far recently and is being misused by some coaches. I would also argue that some of the current decisions (think Brandon Staley) are just recklessly applied analytics. For one thing, the downside of this type of overly aggressive decision-making, the rewards (keeping the ball) vs. the downside risk (giving the opponents points) cannot possibly be worth it. My current opinion on the situation, which I welcome all of your opinions, is that there is something to be learned from certain analytics. Yes coaches had become too conservative and needing to be pushed to go for it more. But, there is much more to it for consideration by the decision maker. I also do not believe some of these situations coaches go for it(Staley); are using data that accurately represents THIS situation. I question how many times in history some of these situations have occurred to have been studied properly. Apologize for the length. What say you?
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I remember Maynard becoming the all time receiving leader breaking Raymond Berry's record. I think it was something like 635 catches, so much different than nowadays.
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I especially liked how he adjusted to shanking his first one, he got a second chance and did it again...and for good measure did it again. If there is somebody more reliable out there we need them now!
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I guess some, like yourself, might see it that way. I think he's a hard nosed coach, and his teams always played hard for him.
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To say he's was not impacted by his time with NE and BB is just not correct -sorry.
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https://247sports.com/Article/Miami-Dolphins-fire-Brian-Flores-Jim-Harbaugh-reportedly-could-be-targeted-180255930/