BarleyNY

Great listens. Thanks for posting!

Watkins was a lot of people’s #1 WR that draft, yes. Personally I had him very closely rated with Evans and OBJ, but with a higher risk due to concerns about injury and route running. Still, he was top 10-15 even with me. But he was not a generational talent as a prospect. That is a big overstatement. Those prospects are incredibly rare in the draft - and they’re either the first player or the first non-QB taken off that’s a widely held opinion. I’ll leave the rest as a disagreement. I’m of the opinion that we need difference makers, especially on offense, and that we should look to acquire at least one this season even if it means trading up. Yes, that includes next year’s first.

Gotta be honest, that’s why I don't think we re-sign Shaq. I think the bidding just gets too high. It’d be nice to keep him here, but some team will pay him very well to be a starter. The need for Edge players is is just too great.

Yeah, that’s how most mocks are done - especially early ones. I also agree that early rounds are better served drafting for value rather than simply filling needs. One thing that stood out to me was how many teams have a need at Edge. With such a weak draft there I see available FAs getting PAID. I see a lot of Edge players getting overdrafted too. People who want to cut Murphy are not looking at the big picture there. There are going to be some real steals at WR in this draft too. That’s not news, but the closer I look the crazier it is. Teams will be getting starting quality WRs in round 3.

Rivers is expected to be headed to Indy. Seems like a pretty done deal. With the CBA expected to jump up cap allocations by 2021 there will be teams that substantially “overpay” free agents this off-season. That’s because they expect those bloated looking contracts to be bargains in a year. It’s going to happen with young players like Clowney and Conklin.

The quality of info seemed to vary widely by team. I almost didn’t post this because the Bills stuff seemed like mostly educated guesses rather than actual intel on others. That’s a good thing from a leak standpoint. Also I thought that some of the write ups would be useful in determining where we might need to trade to and still get the kind of player we should be looking for. And the McDermott interview might be good.

I think that is true, but I also think they’re learning that mixing up what they do with their free defenders in C1 and C0 is much more effective. Allen did effectively hit quick slants against those defenses. That’s the one pass that hurt teams that played it a lot. Now I expect them to disguise and alternate using the free defenders to blitz, drop into shallow coverage to take away that quick slant and spy Allen. In fact it’s easy to have a player do a combination of those on the same play: shallow zone to spy, spy to delayed blitz and shallow zone to delayed blitz are all good tactics. One more thing on the deep throws. Allen rarely lifted those passes properly. Often he floated lofts too far off the mark or threw hard, without loft so WRs couldn’t adjust. Getting used to the proper trajectory is something that I believe can be learned. That’s what I’ll be looking for this fall.

Allen has played very well against zone coverages, but relatively poorly against man. It’s how you play a QB who is not accurate. Cam Newton, who was Allen’s comp coming out of college, sees more man coverage than any other NFL QB. I’d expect that to soon be true of Allen. In fact, I was surprised he didn’t see more of it last season. So being able to hit an intermediate or deep ball to a receiver on the fly against C0 or C1 is crucial for his success.

Yup, a rah rah interview from his paid off-season coach should be taken with a big grain of salt. Absolutely. But there’s an important piece of information hidden in that interview - Allen has been working on his deep ball. That’s a very, very good thing IMO. Hitting those throws would be a game changer for him and the Bills’ offense.

Bills snippets: Buffalo — Like the Eagles, the Bills need wide receivers. Tee Higgins would be a dream here to give Josh Allen a bigger target and someone to stretch the field vertically. In Round 3, if a receiver hasn't been drafted, big ones like Bryan Edwards and Donovan Peoples-Jones are names I've heard. Stick to Football is in Indianapolis this week. We are hosting Sean McDermott (Buffalo Bills), Mike Vrabel (Tennessee Titans) and Matt Bowen (ESPN) live from radio row. Notes from other teams ahead of the Bills could inform some trade options or necessities. Lots of teams need WRs and Edge players. Edge is not a good position in this draft after Young so I could see some massive overpayment to free agents - especially with the cap expected to jump up with the new CBA. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2878167-matt-millers-scouting-notebook-latest-buzz-for-every-nfl-team-at-2020-combine?share=twitter

Few things on this: - Lamb and Watkins are different prospects. One has nothing to do with the other - Not all of us were on board with giving up that much for Sammy Watkins or with him being better than other WRs in that draft. I think that he got overhyped here simply because of what was given up. There were also real risks with him that were overlooked by the NFL draft hype machine and most fans. - The Bills are in a much different position in 2020 than they were in 2014. Six years ago they knew they had a lot of needs, including a franchise QB. They sat in a spot in the draft where they knew they could get a difference maker. The trade up then was unnecessary and reckless. Today the team is much more complete, but it lacks difference makers on offense. Other than Allen there’s no one that defenses really need to make big adjustments for. Lots of good players, but no one who scares a defense. The Bills can get another really good player at 22, but they’re outside the window for elite prospects (unlike 2014). They can stay put and get another really good player or they can try to trade up for a guy that scares a defense and makes them scheme to stop him. - In 2021 where would you expect the Bills to be drafting? If the bulk of what I’m giving up for Lamb is 22 and another late 1st, then sign me up. That’s stealing.

I see him as a good fit for a team looking to draft their long term starter this year. He can start until they are ready and back up later. It would also take pressure off that team’s draft. Several good fits out there for that.

Born and raised in Cleveland a Browns fan. Adopted Bills shortly after I moved here about 8 years ago. I root for both now. Funny story. There used to be a college bar in Berea called The Rampant Lion. I was in a beer chugging contest with another Browns RB, Leroy Hoard. We cleared the field on the first chug. Tied again the second. They gave him the nod on beer three (which neither of us wanted). Friends told me he was faster, but spilled a little. One of my friends also informed me of who he was. (You don’t know who that is, do you? Nope. It’s Leroy Hoard. Ah, that makes sense.) Hoard was really nice and came over and told me I could have the prize for 1st place. I was so drunk I forgot to pick it up and went back the next weekend and won the contest then. You could only win once a month so no big deal. During that summer I was good for that one win every month. That dude’s arms might be the biggest I’ve ever seen. He was huge and all muscle.

Getting into the playoffs in 2 of 3 years makes a big difference IMO. The thing about 2017 was not so much getting in at 9-7 as it was the team’s/offense’s/Tyrod’s performance there. It really drove home the perception that we didn’t belong. But in 2019 we were 10-6 and were in a playoff game that went well into OT. We looked like a playoff worthy team. We looked like a team that had some question marks and needs, but one that was ascending. If 2017 had been the high water mark of this team, then breaking the playoff drought would feel pretty hollow. But taken in a larger context with the changeovers in player personnel and staff made since then - and specifically what we saw in 2019 - I think there’s a lot to love about this team’s trajectory.

My only guess at why it would happen is the rumor that Jeffery was the one leaking the Wentz stuff. Maybe they don’t think they can have him back in the locker room under any circumstance. In that case, why not see if they can get anything at all for him?

As told to me by a national sportswriter before that draft. I’ve never seen a better QB comp than than Cam Newton for Josh Allen. They’re almost the exact same draft prospects.

Good answer if there’s a team out there that thinks he’s the answer. I can’t believe that there is though. It just takes one I guess.

I was thinking the same thing: I fully expect them to know where they want Ford to play. But Good Lord, don’t tell anyone. Make the other GMs guess which position you need to fill. And while you’re at it build Ford up by giving him props for being able to play two positions rather than tell the world he isn’t good enough at one of them. Jeez. GMing 101. Talk up your guys and give no useful info to anyone.

Pretty much what I said earlier here: https://247sports.com/nfl/cleveland-browns/Article/Cleveland-Browns-Olivier-Vernon-Rumors-144220490/

Future picks are tricky. It’s not set in stone but they’re usually discounted at approximately one round with the second round divided into to tiers and the first into three tiers. As an example if expect the Bengals to be drafting in the top 10 next year, then their 2021 first would be estimated at the value of a mid first round pick. If you expect the Bills to be a playoff team and pick in the last 10 or so picks in 2021, then that would be worth a pick in the top half of the second round this year. A place that some GMs find value is to gain a future 1st or 2nd round pick from a team that got a little lucky and over-performed in their record. If that team falls of, then that pick could be way better than expected. We don’t have nearly enough draft capital to get 33, 65 and next year’s first from Cincy. To get a real difference maker that’s not that much to give up. If you expect the Bills to make a nice playoff run - and players like that can help make that happen - then you’re looking at a very late first next year anyway. Often that’s second round talent. Give me a player that can change games rather than two good players.

Cincy’s picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds (33&65) would be more than enough for 22 according to the JJ trade chart: 22=780 pts 33=580 65=265

Far too often fans (and even GMs) primarily focus on drafting to fill needs. This is simply an exercise to see how people would build the Bills if the team’s current needs were adequately filled. It’s meant to ferret out people’s: - general team building philosophy - opinions of specific players in this draft - this draft in general Would people prefer to stockpile picks or go after a game changer? Which specific players would be worth a move up? Do you build your team by improving the OL? Or Edge? Or CB? Sure, it takes a bit of imagination and possibly even some thought, but I was interested to see what people thought.

Crap. I goofed. I said “stud WR” to fill our #1 WR spot. That’s my bad. I was thinking along the lines of acquiring a player like AJ Green or Emmanuel Sanders, not somehow getting hold of someone like Deandre Hopkins.

One of the articles I read on analytics showed that there appears to be a limit to how well GMs can draft. One of the issues that they face is actually the excessive amount of information on prospects. It can (and often does) create a certainty bias. IOW over the years greater and great amounts of information have been gathered on the top prospects, but the gains topped out a long time ago. But, as is human nature, the additional info has still made GMs more confident. That explains why Mike Ditka gave up so much for Ricky Williams. It also found that the real problems occurred when GMs didn’t stay true to their process. A big one is when an owner it coach with little real knowledge comes in and demands a player (coughManzielcoughHaslamcough). It happened again with the Browns with the coaches and Justin Gilbert. The DC came in at the last minute and demanded him, saying he was the player he needed to make his defense work. The took him in the top 10 despite not having done any homework on him. The teams that had realized he didn’t even like the game. There are countless examples of this kind of thing (with just the Browns alone). The best teams do their homework, listen to their scouts and stay true to their process. They don’t fall in love with players and are realistic about what they have and how well players can possibly do their jobs. They look for system fits and don’t get caught up emotionally with aspects of players that don’t matter.

Yes. Simply because I think he’s going to be a special playmaker and WR is such an important position. Also I think his specific skill set would fit well with Allen. And I would have no issue being 4 deep at WR especially since we’d be set long term. 3 WRs would be under second deals now and we’d have a #1 WR going on his second as they come off theirs. You’re sooo boring!