mjt328

Unfortunately, I think the Bills are "stuck" in a bad place right now. And nobody is going to walk away happy. I truly believe Beane had his eyes on 1-2 specific guys, and was hoping to work his way into position on Draft Day. The Cordy Glenn trade was the last step before making his final move. All it would have taken was the Browns or Giants to take a non-QB, and then they could pull the trigger with the Colts for #3. Boom. We have our guy. Point blank, the Jets gave up more than we could (or would be willing to) offer. They went way over the draft value chart, and the Colts lost nothing by moving down 3 spots. Beane can put on his poker-face and pretend this wasn't a disappointment for him. He can pretend we are happy in our current draft position, and play it cool. But the Jets ruined our plan. A plan that was 11 months in the making. Now, I'm not trying to say Beane was stupid. If he only really likes 2 quarterbacks, I can understand him being reluctant to "overpay" for the #3 pick, when the draft is still 6 weeks away. That could have been an utter disaster on Draft Day, if someone figured out how to trade ahead of us. The wisest plan was to have a tentative deal in place with the Colts, but wait until the pick was on the clock. The problem is... even being wise could ultimately leave us empty-handed on Draft Day. The Browns may have flirted with the idea of taking Saquan Barkley at #1 and taking their QB at #4. But the Jets move has really forced their hand. And things are becoming pretty clear that Sam Darnold is the big favorite to be the first pick. No matter what chatter is coming from New York, I can't see a 3-13 team with a 37-year-old QB passing on that position when drafting in the Top 2. The Giants are too smart to believe they can win a Super Bowl with this roster. And they are too smart to telegraph their thinking to the media. There is a reason they weren't willing to trade this pick to the Jets. It has Josh Rosen written all over it. This leaves the Jets with their choice between Baker Mayfield and Josh Allen. And herein lies the problem. Beane can play it calm and cool all he wants. But he KNOWS we can't walk away with NOTHING at quarterback. Ultimately, the Bills may be forced to trade away a ton of picks, just to get the 4th, 5th or 6th QB off the board. Not the guy they really want. Not the guy they truly believe in. Just the left-overs. Either that, or we REACH really bad to get a 2nd-3rd tier guy like Mason Rudolph.

So I'm not the only one upset about that...

When I look back at the Buffalo Bills through their 50+ year history, I think this information is eye-opening. We've only taken 3 quarterbacks in the 1st Round during our history (Kelly, Losman, Manuel) and never taken one in the Top 10, despite being there 15-20 times. Two of those QBs were our second pick of the day (Kelly, Losman) and one was after a trade down. We can argue all day about who we "should and shouldn't" have drafted. But I think it shows me a franchise that has always placed "less priority" on the Quarterback position than much of the competition. Buddy Nix is probably a great example. It took him 4 drafts as GM to finally take the chance on a QB. We can say he was "smart" for passing on Jimmy Clausen, Blaine Gabbert, Brandon Weeden, etc. But he also passed on Russell Wilson. Was he smart? Or was he just lucky? You can't miss on the chances you don't take. But you can't hit on them either.

In my opinion, the biggest hurdle for Quarterbacks is processing speed. From snap to throw, a QB has roughly 2-3 seconds to process where 11 defenders are going, in relation to his 4/5 receiving options. And once the throw is made, defenders close very, very quickly. Ball placement is vital. Many college offenses limit a QBs receiving reads to 1-2 options on a given play, and you often find receivers running WIDE open.

My analysis on Josh Allen has nothing to do with his completion percentage. The other day, I watched his full-game matchups against Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado State, Utah State and Colorado. So my opinion is based on 5 games, which is roughly half of his 2017 season. No doubt, he occasionally makes really nice throws. And thanks to his arm strength, he absolutely makes passes that some other prospects just can't. But on a consistent basis, his accuracy is just really bad. He is constantly missing easy passes at all levels, including his short/intermediate targets. Good NFL quarterbacks are able to consistently hit moving targets (not stationary) between the waist and head level. If a player has to break stride, jump, dive, reach or stretch out for a pass - it's not a good pass. EJ Manuel sometimes made nice throws too. But his accuracy for an NFL QB was bad. That is what I see with Allen.

I've watched several of his games, and I also think Josh Allen is a long-shot for success in the NFL. Another poster said he "accuracy is overblown." No it's not. It's absolutely terrible, and his passes are all over the place. His pocket presence is also pretty bad. He's very athletic, but when pressure comes, he has no sense for how to get away from it. He plays in an NFL-style system, but doesn't do a good job of moving through his progressions. So it doesn't really matter. The bottom line is... If someone drafts Allen, they are basically starting with an empty shell. All of the physical attributes are there. But he possesses none of the natural instincts of playing the position. You have to fix his mechanics. You have to fix his accuracy. You have to fix his pocket presence. You have to teach him playbooks and how to read a defense. This is a long-term project.

I have a really tough time believing the Giants will be passing on a QB. This team was 3-13 last year. Yet people think are trying to "win now." Their roster isn't remotely close to Super Bowl level. Eli Manning is 37 years old. He played poorly in 2016 and then played even worse last year. He's done. The Giants are telling everyone one thing, but they are in prime position to take their QB of the future. And they know it.

At this point, I've done my most film review on Sam Darnold. He reminds me of Brett Favre with his style of play. Darnold is a gunslinger, always looking to push the ball downfield. You almost never see him settling for check-downs. This can be both good and bad, because he also forces things to heavy coverage. This was Favre's style exactly. I also see similarities in the way they move around the pocket, and in their unconventional mechanics when throwing. How anyone can see noodle-arm Chad Pennington or check-down king Sam Bradford when watching Darnold is a complete mystery to me.

Some of the top guys in this draft class (Sam Darnold and Josh Rosen in my opinion) have just as much potential as Wentz did. And Wentz wasn't the "clear cut best" QB of that class, which should be obvious because the Rams took Goff first. The ability of a coaching staff to "develop" a Quarterback is overrated. Coaches can only work with the talent they are given. We always hear about the Bills failing to develop quarterbacks like JP Losman and EJ Manuel. But neither of those guys did squat in the NFL after going to other coaching staffs either. It wasn't the coaches, it was the player.

My brother is an Eagles fan. For years, he felt the same way as many people on this board. He didn't want to see his team "overdraft" players, and was always worried about getting value from his picks. He didn't believe a Quarterback could succeed without a fantastic O-Line in front of him, a great running game and receiving weapons all over the field. So the best plan was always kicking the can down the road, until the rest of the roster was set. Being a big NCAA fan, every QB prospect that popped up was also loaded with flaws. There was always a better option "next year." He just about lost his mind when the Eagles MORTGAGED THEIR FUTURE to move up for Carson Wentz. He was depressed and wondered how a rookie QB could ever succeed with the "crappy roster" and "bad defense" around him. Wentz wasn't even half-way through his rookie season before my brother completely changed his tune. He told me that he could IMMEDIATELY see the difference in what Wentz brought to the table, even as a raw/inexperienced player. Keep in mind that my brother watched Pro Bowler Donovan McNabb for years. And when Nick Foles was playing fantastic, my brother was always convinced he was a "system quarterback." But in less than 8 games, he immediately knew that Wentz was going to transform their franchise. And only a year later, the Eagles were hoisting their first Lombardi trophy.

No, just the vast majority of the time.

And the hits from that same time period include: Eli Manning - 2 Super Bowl rings Ben Roethlisberger - 2 Super Bowl rings Aaron Rodgers - 1 Super Bowl ring Joe Flacco - 1 Super Bowl ring Carson Wentz - 1 Super Bowl ring Not to mention guys like Matt Ryan and Cam Newton, who got their teams very close to winning a championship. If you want to succeed, you can't be afraid of failing. I would rather swing for the fences and strikeout, as opposed to playing it safe and stockpiling talent at other positions.

At least they took the chance. The Bills also really needed a wide receiver that year. They could have passed on EJ Manuel, then drafted a WR at #16 like DeAndre Hopkins. Instead of a total bust at QB, we could have gotten a top-notch Pro-Bowl receiver. How many Super Bowls do you think the Bills would have won with Hopkins instead of Manuel? How much earlier would we have ended the streak with Hopkins instead of Manuel? How many times would we have won the AFC East instead of New England, if we had Hopkins instead of Manuel? If everyone is honest, they know the answer to all of these questions is ZERO. He would have made no difference. No matter how much we crucify Buddy Nix/Doug Whaley for the failure that was Manuel, the complete and honest truth is... drafting him wasn't what killed the Bills. What killed the Bills was passing on Russell Wilson in the 2012 draft. Our staff admitted they REALLY LIKED Wilson, but were just afraid to overdraft him in the 2nd Round and were afraid to trade up in the 3rd to secure him. Here is the thing. I don't know what the Bills draft board looks like. At this point, I'm hoping that Brandon Beane knows what he's doing. I hope he is a good talent evaluator, and I hope he has a concrete plan to get the QB he thinks has the best chance to be our franchise guy. Because at the end of the day, that's all that matters. Adding another Linebacker, Tackle, Wide Receiver, etc. will not get us the championship trophy we all should be striving for. If he sees "the guy" at #2, and just isn't willing to part with the extra picks... it could end up being the biggest mistake of his career.

Desperation is not always a bad thing. Any front office that isn't "desperate" for a franchise quarterback is foolish and arrogant. In the coming weeks, we'll see if the Bills front office truly has a plan. I really hope they do. Because right now, it looks like they: a) Passed on some good QB prospects in 2017, so they could move up in 2018... b) Traded away talent like Sammy Watkins and Cordy Glenn, so they could move up in 2018... c) Settled for leftovers in Free Agency, because they were confident in their ability to move up in 2018... d) Got jumped by a division rival, and are now on the outside looking in. We've had plenty of "cool and calm" GMs, who refused to make rash decisions. Buddy Nix and Marv Levy were two recent examples. They were willing to just let the draft come to them. And at the end of the day, we were left with nothing at the most important position in the NFL.

The thing to remember when evaluating prospects... none of them are a finished product and all of them are going to have flaws. The question is, what flaws are going to be the easiest to correct and which ones are going to be more difficult? A great example is Sam Darnold. In my opinion, Darnold is a fantastic prospect and checks every box that you are looking for in an NFL quarterback. His big weakness is poor decision-making. That's because he's a gunslinger at heart, and constantly forces throws into heavy coverage. At the NFL, this will equal lots of turnovers if not corrected. But Darnold also shows great ability to quickly scan through his progressions and make fast/accurate throws. Which means that a good coaching staff should have an easier time teaching him to avoid the really bad decisions. Compare that to a prospect like Josh Allen. Allen has all the physical tools in the world. But his passes are wildly inaccurate. And despite having great mobility, Allen also has terrible pocket presence and lacks a feel for the pass rush. When pressure hits, his composure totally breaks down. The only way Allen becomes a successful QB at the next level is by having his game completely remade, from the ground-up. That's a pretty tall order.

Out of the five, history says Baker Mayfield. When players fall farther than expected, it's usually because of undesirable physical traits. With Quarterbacks, that usually means height and size. With that said, I wouldn't be surprised if all are gone before #12.

It's not good when a prospect compares to Tom Brady. The reason Brady was a 6th Round Pick was because there was literally nothing special about him in college. He wasn't athletic. He didn't have a strong arm. He had a skinny frame. He only showed moderate accuracy and decent ability to read defenses. He was never dominant and spent most of his time in school on the bench. Brady became great because he drastically improved every single aspect of his game. He didn't succeed despite having average accuracy. He succeeded by becoming one of the most accurate QBs to ever play. Most prospects only make moderate improvements once they hit the pros... if they manage to make them at all. Most prospects are like EJ Manuel. The guy he was at Florida State was the guy we saw during his career in Buffalo.

Some of the old-timers on here (can't believe it's been 14 years), probably remember this one. Bills are ready to draft their QB of the future, with Drew Bledsoe's best days behind him. They are sitting at Pick #13. There are considered to be 3 top QB prospects in the draft. Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger. The Bills have admitted they really wanted Roethlisberger. And based on most of the mock drafts, it's totally realistic that he falls to us. But General Manager Tom Donahoe decided to sit on his hands instead of trading up a few spots to secure the guy he wanted. The Steelers surprised everyone by snatching him at #11, two spots ahead of our pick. Our front office settled for Lee Evans at #13 and then went into panic mode. They traded away the next year's #1 pick to move ahead of Green Bay and take the best option of the second tier... JP Losman. We ended up giving up a king's ransom anyway, and still got a lesser prospect. Roethlisberger went on to win multiple Super Bowls, while Losman was a massive bust.

Hmmm. Let's take a look then. The Ravens were contenders for roughly 5 years, before everything fell apart again. That would be from 2008-2012. Flacco was certainly a Top 10-15 quarterback during that stretch of his career. If you don't believe me, go back and look at the stats. And his play during the 2012 Super Bowl run was possibly the best a QB has ever played during a playoff stretch. Since Flacco's play has tailed off, the Ravens have been unable to maintain any sort of success. They haven't won the division since 2012, and have missed the playoffs 4 out of the last 5 seasons. I would say the Ravens are more of an example that proves my point.

Yes you did. There are obviously times where average/below average QBs have walked away with a Super Bowl trophy. But in each of those cases (Nick Foles, Joe Flacco, Trent Dilfer, Brad Johnson, Mark Rypien, Jeff Hostetler), the quarterbacks went through "hot streaks" and played especially well during the playoff run. And in all of those cases, the success was not sustained.

Just for fun, let's say a quarterback who is within the top half (let's say top 16) in the NFL. Find me one team who was a championship contender for longer than 4 years in a row, with a quarterback (or quarterbacks) who consistently played below that level.

You can't be serious. Kirk Cousins was an anomaly. Quarterbacks of his caliber never hit free agency, unless there are catastrophic injuries and Top 10 prospects waiting on the bench (like the situations involving Peyton Manning and Drew Brees). His contract means nothing. The salary cap will rise and teams will find ways to adjust to the market. If you think that franchise quarterbacks are suddenly going to be hitting the free agent market in coming years, you are out of your mind And desperate teams have ALWAYS been willing to overpay for successful backups. Do you recall the Bills sending a 1st Rounder to the Jaguars for Rob Johnson?

Building a roster without a franchise QB is not a recipe for consistent success, and never has been. Please give me an example of EVEN ONE TEAM in NFL history who was able to maintain success for longer than 4 years without strong play from the QB position.

How many times do people have to explain this? It's not about getting a SURE FIRE guy!!!!!!!!!!! There is ONE POSITION in the entire NFL that can single-handedly transform a bottom-feeder into a contender. There is ONE POSITION in the NFL that can dominate the league for 10-15 years. There is ONE POSITION in the NFL that can make everyone around him better. Let me give you a hint. It's not a Linebacker. It's not an Offensive Tackle. It's not a Wide Receiver or a Tight End. It's not a Cornerback or a Safety. The Jets can make strong draft picks every single year, and I couldn't care less. Having a strong roster does not make them a long-term threat. At the end of the day, building a roster without a Quarterback is a waste of time. Maybe who they get turns out to be Mark Sanchez, and we get lucky. But maybe he turns out to be Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Ben Roethlisberger, etc., etc. In which case, they will be a legitimate team to contend with until 2030.

What a joke. As of yesterday, the Jets had missed out on landing Kirk Cousins. They didn't even get Case Keenum or Sam Bradford. They had settled for a 1-year deal with Teddy Bridgewater, who was ridiculously overrated even before he totally destroyed his knee. For the draft, they were on the outside looking in. Behind Cleveland. Behind the Broncos. And most likely behind the Bills whenever a trade went through. Now they are in position to potentially land the franchise quarterback they have been missing. I can't understand how ANYONE in Buffalo could be happy about that. If they hit on a guy, they are in the prime position to take New England's place in the AFC East whenever Tom Brady and Bill Belichick retire. Meanwhile, we will get stuck (once again) stockpiling talent all over the roster, only to watch our passing game keep us from actually accomplishing anything.