hondo in seattle

This has been discussed in other threads but, yeah, as business investments go this is a bad one. Your EBITDA (or any other measure of profit) will never justify the purchase price. What might justify the purchase price is the sale price when you sell the club years later. You have to bet that the NFL remains insanely popular and the market for NFL franchises stays overheated. Of course, there are a lot of perks to being an NFL owner. These can justify the price.

It would have been nice to hear Whaley say Spiller will not be traded. His equivocal remark reminds me of Bon Jovi's statement about the Bills in Buffalo. Though I suppose if Spiller was on the market, at least one club would have inquired about him. So my guess is Spiller is not on the market. And I think that is very good. When you have a young, unproven QB it's very useful to have a stable of productive RBs.

Tim Graham says the Bills are Pegula's to lose and that seems more and more true as this process unfolds. http://www.wgr550.com/pages/9034669.php?pid=421136

Huh? I thought we stopped worrying about the length of men's hair back in the 60s! As the Yardbirds once sung: Can you judge a man By the way he wears his hair? Can you read his mind By the clothes that he wears? Can you see a bad man By the pattern on his tie? Chorus: Then Mister you're a better man than I Yeah Mister You're a better man than I Oh Mister You're a better man than I Yeah Mister You're a better man than I http://us.yhs4.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?p=mister+you%27re+a+better+man+than+i+Yardbirds+lyrics&ei=UTF-8&hspart=w3i&hsimp=yhs-synd1&type=W3i_DS,221,0_0,Search,20140105,19669,0,GC32,7743

When you consider that EJ was a rookie who missed most of preseason and was working for a rookie OC without a QB Coach, you have to say his stats were reasonably good. Regardless of the reasonably good rookie stats, the EJ haters see flaws in his game that will prevent him from reaching a higher level. EJ lovers see his rookie shortcomings as correctable and anticipate big things. Both sides make cogent arguments. Neither side is convincing the other. We might as well just let the season unfold and all see for ourselves who is right. (vp, thanks for the link - good article).

Heartbreaking.

There may be identifiable statistical patterns but there are no absolute rules in the projection of QB maturation. Jim Plunkett had five forgettable years in New England. He was equally mediocre in San Francisco for a couple years. Then he labored on as a backup for the Raiders for a couple more. Surely this guy was destined to be a career journeyman. Then in his 30s, Plunkett finally blossomed, putting up the best stats of his career and leading the Raiders to two Super Bowl wins. No statistician or football analytics guy could have looked at Plunkett in his 20s and predicted Plunkett's performance in his 30s. Football science will always be inexact. Players improve at different rates. And some players just need the right coach to get the best out of them.

Flutie didn't win games. Not with the Bills. Our defense won games. The Flutie-led offense was anemic (except, oddly, sometimes at the end of the 4th quarter).

No. Seattle just passed legislation to raise it's minimum wage to $15/hour. Moves like that don't make your city attractive to new businesses. New York's problem has been it's high taxes. NYC overcomes the high taxes because it's the financial capitol of the country, if not the world, and it's advantages offset its costs.

I don't think the problem was Marrone. I think EJ was the one who had trouble establishing chemistry with Stevie. EJ is a young QB who struggles with progressions. The NFL game still moves too fast for him. Stevie is an unconventional WR without a lot of high end speed who gets open through creativity. Fitz, though lacking a cannon for an arm, figured Stevie out and could get him the ball sometimes. EJ, on the other hand, needs WRs to be where they're supposed to be when they're supposed to be there. EJ and Stevie were not a match made in heaven. EJ does better with good route runners like Robert Woods, for example - guys who execute the route the way it was drawn up. Sammy is said to be a good route runner. He's also a guy who can take a short, easy and take it for a long gain. Woods and Watkins are both better targets for EJ than SJ.

There does seem to be a lot of potential in the WR Corps (though not a lot of proven talent). So who will lead the BIlls in receptions this year? Given that Sammy is a rookie, I wouldn't be surprised if Mike Williams ended up leading the team. EJ seems to trust him.

Ryan Leaf's attitude problems were enough to sabotage his NFL dreams. Manziel has attitude problems AND poor mechanics. My choice is EJ

Generally speaking, you need a good QB to win in the NFL. Fitz isn't good. We've seen too much of him to know his limitations. EJ might be good. I'd rather go with the guy with unproven potential than the guy with proven mediocrity.

As a partner in a Taco Bell franchise, I can tell you that your first statement isn't even remotely true. Your second statement is interesting. The annual revenues generated by a NFL franchise don't justify the high price to purchase a club. You only really make money when you sell the team. It's an odd way of doing business and it requires you to gamble on the NFL remaining a hot commodity. As noted, however, there is other value (beyond annual returns) in being a NFL owner. If I had Pegula's assets (what a dream!), I'd bid too!

Thanks for the link. As mentioned in the article, many business people use factors of EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization) to determine the value of a business. For example, smaller restaurants may sell for 2x EBITDA while higher volume restaurants belonging to thriving chains might sell for 6x EBITDA. The Bills EBITDA last years was $38 million. Even if we value it at 10x EBITDA, the value of the Bills would still only be $380 million. Strictly business wise, that ought to be (roughly speaking) the sale price. Obviously, the true value of any commercial venture is the price the market will bear. But it's kind of amazing that business people will pay so much for an enterprise that nets so little. It would take Pegula a 34 years or so to make a $1.3 billion investment back. Buying a Taco Bell franchise has an immensely better ROI.

+1

You are right. My first reaction to the deal was "ridiculous." But then I thought how rare even good QBs are. The deal actually makes sense.

Wow. I'm surprised by the negativity from some of the posters. I'm not sold on EJ as the franchise QB of the future. But, then again, I'm not going to condemn the guy because of seven passes in two series of work. Hackett and some players say EJ has taken a big step forward this year. Maybe it's just happy talk. I don't know. But two series doesn't prove the optimists wrong.

This was a very good article for a national media guy. But, in fact, I don't expect to learn much about the Bills from the national media. Trying to follow 32 teams, they just won't know as much about the Bills as we do here on TBD. The analytics websites sometimes have interesting stuff. But when I read or watch SI, ESPN or most other national media outlets, it's usually because I'm curious how the Bills are being presented. I'm not expecting to learn anything new.

There "should be" but there won't be. However, if you start a petition, I'll sign.

Great reporting, Astro. Living 2600 miles away makes it hard for me to keep up with the Bills this time of year. Your camp notes are objective and informative.

EJ is still unproven. We need to move the ball somehow. The more good backs, the better.

Good post. We won't declare war on Canada after all.

Quite possibly true. Maybe wrongly so - but I was surprised to read there were only 3 bids submitted.

There were reports that other candidates - besides the ones we all knew about - were quietly putting together bids. Apparently this turned out to be way wrong. Incidentally, on June 19 I predicted Pegula at $1.27B. Got my fingers crossed that I'll win the Final Sale Price Contest. Far more importantly, though, I'm hoping Pegula wins his contest! http://forums.twobillsdrive.com/topic/168509-bills-final-sale-price-contest/page__hl__bids