billsfan1959

I have no idea if Buffalo would have won the SB last year had they beaten KC. All I can say is I believe they would have been favored to win both the AFCCG and the SB. However, there are so many variables that go into winning any given game that you never know. What I do know is this: Whatever happened to KC after they beat Buffalo, has no relevance whatsoever to whether or not Buffalo would have won the SB had they beaten KC. Literally zero relevance.

Aren't you also the one that predicted the Bills were going to get blown out by the Jets in the first game they played last year - and have difficulty wiinning any of their remaining games after that?

This is pretty much where I am at. I allowed myself that evening of misery and then moved on. I'm not much for hanging on to negative emotions. That fourth quarter was one of the best offensive displays of football I have ever seen in the playoffs - in pressure packed moment after moment. I have watched it 5 or 6 times. Amazing performances

Perhaps you could read my post on the previous page regarding what I feel about the application of the death penalty and the wrongfully accused, or just ask me if I am fine with what happened to that woman. It would really be more productive than a comment like this.

I would hope so as well. I can only confirm that I never had any intention of minimizing this event. I am repulsed and heartbroken over what took place. I was simply responding to another poster's point about a history in this country of engaging in anything more than superficial efforts to understand root causes and effective solutions to gun violence. Those are not mutually exclusive positions. Unfortunately, a few folks seem to have interpreted my reponse as minimizing what happened and, even worse, attributing it to some vile motive. I would hope, before doing that, people would just ask me to clarify what I meant, as you did.

I am actually not a proponent or an opponent of the death penalty. I would have no problem if this country did away with it tomorrow. My stance is that, as long as it is an allowable form of punishment under the law, I can support it being given as a form of punishment in an extremely small percentage of cases that meet certain criteria. Part of the criteria (not all) in those small percentage of cases is physical evidence that is conclusive. Believe it or not, there are cases where the evidence is conclusive. Saying that there have always been innocent people convicted in criminal justice systems run by human beings is not the same as saying I am fine with it. I have no lust for blood and I never want to see an innocent person convicted, much less given the death penalty. Like I said, if the people in this country wanted to do away with the death penalty to ensure an innocent person was never put to death, I would have no opposition to it.

Honestly. Nobody is trying to minimize the murder of ten people or the fact that the offender did it for vile and reprehensible reasons based on race and views of other human beings as inferior and worthless in some way. It should turn everyone's stomach and be condemned in every way possible. People can express an opinion about something without their motivations turned into this.

Don't get me wrong. The facts of this case, as we know them, certainly indicate the offender set out to murder people based on "his self-expressed racist white supremicist beliefs." I have no problem with discussing it in that sense. I fully understand that there are certain crimes that will inherently draw more attention than others, for a variety of reasons. Again, that is not my issue. My issue is when the motive becomes greater than the central tragedy and used by some people in ways it shouldn't be. The truth is, that there are literally thousands of people, every year, that are intentionally murdered for all kinds of motives. The overwhelming majority of them never garner more than a headline on page 5 of the local paper because the circumstances or motives surrounding their murders don't provide a platform for broader uses. It is not "Whattaboutism." Nor is it antithetical to "honest discussion." Mass murder victims comprise an incredibly small percentage of homicides. As stated, I fully understand the reasons they become national stories. However, to me, they always seem get hijacked for one reason or another, while the lack of interest in the overwhelming percentage of homicides in this country that actually represent the more typical homicides never allow us to engage in real honest discussion of the underlying issues.

1. It's expensive because of the entirely different manner in which capital cases are prosecuted and the fact that the government is paying the cost of, on average, of approx 14 years of the appeal process. 2. No sentences actually deter criime. Sentences are first and foremost about punishment for an offense. 3. There have always been Innocent people convicted and sentenced for crimes they didn't commit. Mistakes are inherent in any system run by human beings. By that logic, we shouldn't engage in any harsh sentences for crimes.

There have been between 14,000 and 22,000+ murders a year in this country since 1969. That is an average of over 17,000 per year, and a total of over 1 million people murdered in this country in that period. The only time people seem to really care is when they can use a murder (or murders) for their own ends. The real impact of lethal violence on victims, their families, and communities, as well as any real honest discussion about it seem to get lost in the rush to use tragedies in a way that best suits our needs.

Not sure why the tweet is so weird to you, or why you need him to cite sources. I'm sure he heard something form someone, no matter how vague, that they were expecting bigger things from Basham this year. Honestly, it's not like he tweeted that he heard Basham was going to be starting over Von Miller.... It would seem more strange to me if he just made it up

I'm sure Lombardo woke up yesterday and thought to himself, "I think I will just make up some s*** about Boogie Basham today..."

For some reason, it brings to mind a memory, from back in the day when bars around the country would raffle off the chance for a patron to throw a brick at Howard Cosell on TV at the end of the game...

I agree that the data that you are looking at gives you a statistical breakdown of the history of that position. In that sense, it will tell you that the majority of QBs drafted, just in the first round, never achieve any real success - and the overwhelming majority never reach true franchise level success. So, any QB that becomes a franchise QB (or just becomes a multi year starter with some level of success) will do something that most QBs drafted in the 1st never do. So, in a broad sense, yes they achieve something that most 1st round QB picks never achieve. But, what that data doesn't tell you is which QBs will be the succesful ones, because, if you look at the data, you will also see most QBs drafted in the 1st round who meet the "statistical standards" of those that have been successful in the NFL - still end up not being very successful, if successful at all. That is my point, it is a group statistic that provides general information about the position and all QBs. From that perspective, any QB who becomes successful in the NFL is an outlier. You can say the same thing about anyone who ever achieves any position or goal that most fail at. It really provides no individual predictive ability. Some might think there is no real distinction between the two. But there is. So,my opinion is that people looked at some broad statistics, with no real context or indepth analyses, and declared Allen would not be successful. It then became the national narrative about Allen. And when Allen became successful, they used the same flawed analyses to say to themselves that they weren't wrong about him, he just "beat the odds," that his success "came out of nowhere," and that "nobody saw it coming." But, you are right, in the end we can agree to disagree. Thanks for the good discussion

I didn’t say the data was meaningless altogether - just as an measure of predicting outcome. People think they can use that kind of data to predict outcomes, but it doesn’t really have any predictive ability. It just doesn’t. I agree 100% that people wanted to be right on Allen. But I would also say that the analyses on which so many based their opinions was drastically flawed.

I am actually aware of them. I argued this same thing quite extensively after Allen was drafted. Those statistics are meaningless in telling you whether any specific QB will be successful or not. The article you linked offers nothing. They have a "QBASE Rating" which means nothing in predictive ability - or much else for that matter. The fact they gave Baker Mayfield the fourth-highest QBASE projection (1480) of any prospect since 1997 and Josh Allen a -83 should tell you all you need to know about the validity of their QBASE rating. They back up their analysis with statements like there have been only 5 QBs with less than a 58% completion rate drafted since 2005 and none of them were successsful; that Wyoming finished 119th in passingout of 130 teams in FBS - the lowest rank ever for a quarterback chosen in the top 100 picks of the NFL draft; and that since 1997, there have been 27 different quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 with QBASE ratings below zero - and none of them were very successful. I won't bother to go through all of the reasons why these stats are absolutely meaningless when it comes to predicting whether or not Allen (or anyone else) would be successful - the list is way too long. The bottom line is they have no predictive ability at all. At best, they are incomplete group statistics based on ridiculously small sample sizes and even more ridiculously superficial statistical variables and analyses. Even if they had some level of scientific validity to them, they would still be meaningless on an individual level. Think of them like the actuarial tables insurance companies use. They can give you all kinds of stats on life expectancy, but the one thing they can't tell you is how long you, as an individual, will live. The reason is that when you enter the realm of predicting outcomes for any given person, along with any other group data you have, you also have to factor in all of the relevant variables that are specific to that person - if you can even determine all of the variables that are relevant. And that is just a beginning point. With Allen, this whole idea that he somehow defied the world of statistics just reached mythical proportions, summed up by the statement, "the Bills will have outsmarted basically all regular humans and the entirety of math itself." What a joke. There was no mathematical equation, formula, or framework within which anyone could show a math based reason why Allen wouldn't be successful. It just didn't exist.

Name me one statistic that had any predictive ability whatsoever regarding whether or not Allen would be successful or not. I will save you the time. There aren't any. One of the biggest myths in modern football...

Allen didn't defy anything. There are no analytics or statistics that said anything at all about whether Allen would be successful or not. And Beane didn't give up all that draft capital to move to 7 to pick a QB he didn't believe was going to be a franchise QB. So, in the end, the most important decision a GM in todays NFL can make is selecting a QB. And Beane absolutely hit it out of the f****ing park.

Thank goodness....

By all accounts, Brady is an exceptionally bright guy. He had his first real assistant coaching experience as an offensive assistant under Sean Payton and working with Drew Brees for two years before going to LSU as the passing game coordinator. He did win the Frank Broyles Award as the nation’s top college assistant, albeit with an absolutely stacked offense. He didn't do that well in Carolina, but he was young (the NFL’s youngest offensive coordinator when he went to Carolina) and didn't have great offensive talent to work with. While he didn't do great his first year, apparently, he was still thought of as someone with a bright offensive mind and a future in the league - he interviewed with five teams for head coaching positions after his first year in Carolina. I believe they think Dorsey will do well with his familiarity with the offense and the players, and they may very well be in a similar position in a couple of years where Dorsey may be looked at for a head coaching position. But, they did lose some real experience around Josh. I think they look at Brady as someone who brings some offensive experience to the room, particularly given the vacancy left by the departures of Daboll, Webb, and Trubisky. - as well as someone that they can grow in the same system, with the potential to move into Dorsey's spot if things go very well and Dorsey moves on.

Beane's job is to build a championship team through whatever means possible, to include the draft, free agency, and trades. Last I looked, they are considered by many to have one of the most complete and balanced rosters in the NFL. Has he hit on every draft pick and free agent signed? Nope. There isn't a GM in the NFL that has. He drafted 31 players from 2018 through 2021. 22 (71%) are on this roster, with 9 starters (10 before Harrison left) and another 7 that have played significant snaps. 30 (97%) of those draft picks are on NFL rosters. Of the 8 that are on other rosters, 7 have started at least one game for other teams. As for Teller, yep, Beane should have never traded him. However, Beane's job is to try to find talent. It is the job of the coaches to develop that talent or utilize in the best way. While Beane has ultimate accountability, you can put most of the blame for Teller being traded on Juan Castillo. And yet, here they are, favored to win the SB next year. It is not all because of Allen, but he is a major factor. Pretty sure Beane drafted him as well. My guess is that you did as much pissing and moaning about the Allen pick (and the draft capital Beane gave up to get him) as you have done in this thread.

Wasn't his break tacklability score at the combine through the roof?

My wife is an introvert and couldn't stop laughing when she saw this. Awesome!

So, your pitch to keep the thread going is that it is not the MOST worthless of the worthless threads?

The closest Tennessee should ever let Tannehill get to mentoring Willis would be for them to provide Willis the tapes of Tannehill's last 3 playoff performances as an example of what not to do as an NFL QB...