OldTimer1960

++ I agree that he showed some potential in the preseason and I was also surprised that he didn't get any opportunity when the WR corp was decimated with injuries. I can only conclude that the coaches saw something that caused them not to be very excited about Aiken.

I know that I am in the minority, but I am not at all sold on Michael Floyd. He had three alcohol related problems, the 3rd almost cost him his final year at ND. IMO, as a big-man-on-campus, those must have been fairly significant events for them not to have been over-looked. Even if not, one or two incidents and I can chalk it up to stupid college kid, to have the 3rd when he obviously had been warned by the coaches, leaves me to believe there is a big problem that could get much worse when he hits a giant pay-day. I am not all that convinced that he is SO good that his talent warrants ignoring those problems. I admit that he had big production and has the very good size to have potential. I know that he ran faster than anticipated, but there was a reason that people didn't think he had separation ability based on his play. No debate from me that the Bills need another good WR, I am just not sure Floyd is good enough to pick there, especially considering his off-field problems. I know that 4-3 OLBs are generally smaller than 3-4 OLBs, but Lavonte David strikes me as a reach in the 2nd round. I think he is very small for the NFL.

Like most here, I don't think it is wise to "reach" to fill a need, but rather a team should take the "Best Player Available" at their pick. However, this is much more gray than what one might think. In this draft there are 5-6 truly elite players and then another 10-15 players that it is difficult to separate. I think that the elite, can't pass this guy by players are: Luck, Griffin, Claiborne, Kalil, Richardson, Blackmon and maybe Fletcher Cox. After those guys, I think that there are about 15 players that could be drafted early and there isn't a lot to separate them except individual team needs and how each player fits into a given team's scheme. Those essentially equivalent players (IMHO) include: Kuechly, Poe, DeCastro, Reiff, Ingram, Kendall Wright, Mark Barron, Courtney Upshaw, Cordy Glenn, Michael Brockers, Donta Hightower, Michael Floyd, Peter Konz, Mike Adams and Coples. I think a case could be made for any of those guys at the 10th pick. In my opinion, the best fits for the Bills of that group include: Ingram (I think he is the best of this group, but not so great that they can't consider other players in the mix) Reiff - fits a big need, IF the Bills think he is an NFL LT. Kuechly - seems to be a "safe" pick and if he can effectively play OLB in a 4-3, then he might be a good pick Floyd - I agree that the Bills need another starting caliber WR, but I am not sure he is one. So, I don't know that there is any player beyond the elite guys listed above that wouldn't in some aspect be a "reach", but not a big one.

Yes, I think the Bills should take Claiborne if he is there. I wouldn't really care if he wasn't available after surgery until into the regular season. The talent gap between Claiborne and anyone else likely to be available to the Bills is very big (IMHO based on my reading). I really don't get the love that Floyd is getting on this board. Yeah, he is big and faster than advertised, but there is just something about him that bothers me. I think it might be that he almost got kicked off of his college team for his 3rd alcohol infraction. One or maybe even 2 alcohol related problems in college isn't that surprising, but I think it is a big red flag that he let yet another incident nearly erase his last year in college. I get that people sometimes mature and outgrow that sort of stuff, but when I look at Floyd I don't see the kind of truly elite playmaker that is worth overlooking a potentially serious problem. I think my opinion is similar on Dre Kirkpatrick. He is good-very good, but not so special that I want to overlook off-field problems and take him high. Heck, even without off-field problems, I don't think he is so good that he would be a slam dunk to be in the conversation at 10.

I think that there are other factors in play there other than LTs. For, example, the Saints, Steelers and Giants all have very good or better QBs and the Browns and Fins don't. I don't think that anyone is saying that having a great LT alone automatically makes a great team. Having a good LT can enhance your offense by helping the run game and providing better pass protection for your QB. Having a poor LT hurts your offense because your QB has less time to throw, defenses don't have to honor the deep part of the field as much (since QB has less time), this allows defense to crowd the line causing problems for the run game and short passing game.

I respectfully disagree. Where there is smoke, there is often fire. I am not saying that a guy in college can't mature and become a more responsible adult, but the draft history is filled with busts who teams picked early while ignoring similar red flags. Floyd's alcohol problems are certainly not the whole story, but it is something worth considering seriously. Now, that doesn't mean that guys who have squeaky clean college resumes don't also bust in the NFL... Some examples of guys with trouble flags from college taken early who busted: WR Charles Rogers DE Dwayne Robertson Willis McGahee ran himself out of town here with off-field problems Travis Henry destroyed his career and life with off-field problems Sean Taylor died (maybe a victim of circumstances, but had a history of trouble) Braylon Edwards never really panned out Pacman Jones was a BIG flame-out Mike Williams from USC had concerns about work-ethic and was an epic failure Matt Jones coked himself out of the league fast Vince Young has failed so far Matt Leinert has failed because he didn't have the work ethic Aquib Talib has been constantly in trouble and hasnt't succeeded We could go back further, including Reggie Rogers and Jerome Brown, but I don't think we need to.

I respectfully disagree. I think that you are better served looking long-term with each pick in the draft than for immediate returns. The Packers would not have drafted Aaron Rodgers in round 1 given your philosophy since he had to sit for multiple years behind Favre. That would have been a monumental mistake.

While I agree that OT (specifically LT) is the biggest need on the roster now (followed by OLB and CB), I don't think that alters the Bills' (and most teams') philosophy of not reaching for need - especially in round 1. To be sure, there is a wide variation from team to team of who the best players on the board are. I would still not rule out Melvin Ingram, who seems to be a BPA and have the right attitude and I don't think you can ever have too many pass rushers and versatile players. I would not be shocked at a LT, if the Bills are sold on any of Reiff, Martin or Adams. I would be a little surprised at a CB as I don't see Claiborne available at 10 and I think the next set of CBs has a lot of questions/red flags. I could see Floyd making some sense, but I am not sold on him.

Well BPA is very nebulous. The 3rd, 4th or 5th best OT might be considered better than the 1st OG. Why, you might ask? My viewpoint: in college, the best OL (ie, tallest, most athletic) are put at OT because they have the movement skills to block on the "outside" where they only have help on the inside (from the OG). The less athletic OL are put at OG where they have help on both sides (from the OT on one side and the C on the other side). OGs can succeed with less athleticism than OTs because they have limited responsibility with help on both sides. Being finer, to play LT you have to be THE elite athlete of the OL because you don't have a TE to help on the outside and because the (right handed) QB can't see the guy that you failed to block (hence the term "blind side"). The RT can be slightly less athletic because he usually has a TE helping on his outside shoulder and because, if he misses, at least the (right handed) QB can see the rusher coming and has a chance to evade him. To be sure, some guys projected as OGs can succeed as OTs and some guys projected as OTs fail at OT, but can move in to OG successfully. The latter (OT to OG) is more often the case, so the general feeling is that college OTs are safer picks because they have two shots to be successful (try OT first and then move to OG if they fail at OT). For OGs, it is much rarer to fail at OG and be successful at OT in the pros.

Partying in college, when under control, is not a big black-mark. But, to be in trouble 3x when you are a big-man-on-campus-above-the-law star on the football team is a BIG problem.

Well, I agree with your observation. That does not mean that I thin that Floyd is worth the 10th pick.

I disagree, a little. I would still be VERY interested in Melvin Ingram, but if he is gone, I think I'd be quite happy with Kuechly.

I can see that Floyd is obviously talented and has had a lot of production, but somehow I am just not really digging him that early. Some of it is the 3 alcohol problems he's had, including nearly being suspended for his last college season. Some of it is that it is hard for me to project him as a major star in the NFL. I know that I recently posted that there is a bust-risk for every position coming out of college, but WRs especially scare me. They were Matt Millen's down-fall in Detroit when he went 1 for 3 on high 1st round picks at WR in 4 years. Yes, he hit on Calvin Johnson and he is a MAJOR weapon in the NFL, but his other 2 WR picks were total and complete busts. Part of this may just be my inherent dislike of ND, which is shame on me, but I'd rather see the Bills go elsewhere than drafting Floyd high in round 1.

I think I understand the point of this post. The idea was that Kuechly had all sorts of production as a college player, yet he was being a bit downgraded because many scouts/media didn't think he was a superior athlete. I believe that the original poster was using the combine numbers to suggest that Kuechly is an outstanding athlete who also has outstanding production. I am warming up to Kuechly as possibly being the best player available when the Bills selection comes along. I am not worried about over-drafting Kuechly because LB (esp MLB) is downgraded in value. Top LBs, even those who are not primarily pass rushers, can have a significant impact on the game. LB isn't the same as the very de-valued FB position. I also believe that Kuechly can be an effective cover LB given his production in college and his better-than-expected athletic ability.

First round any position has a fairly high bust rate. There are no sure things in the draft. Have a look back at the top 10 picks in most drafts. I think you'll see a small number fo real stars, a few decent players and 2-3 busts.

I concur, but I am not totally aligned with the concept of "grooming" a mid-later round pick to be the QB. SOMETIMES, mid-late picks become good QBs, but the phrase "groom a future starter" is a mis-nomer, in my opinion. The later round guys who have succeeded, I would argue, did so because of their innate talent/drive - not because someone "groomed" them. How did it work out for the guys that were "groomed" behind Jim Kelly, Dan Marino, John Elway, etc? Not very well. I don't think it is necessarily coaching-up that helped Brady, Montana, etc to succeed, but rather that they were undervalued and had the talent/drive to succeed all along.

I think this *only* means that the Bills don't think that any remaining free agent WRs are much better than what they already have, particularly given what they might have to pay for the remaining WR FAs. I don't think it means that the Bills are satisfied with their weak collection of WRs. Stevie Johnson is a borderline good/very good NFL WR. David Nelson is an OK 2/3 WR. NOBODY else on the roster has proven anything, nor do they have the "great" potential some here want to ascribe to them. I am not a believer in Donald Jones or Marcus Easley. That does not mean that I don't think that one or both might develop into an NFL WR, but I do think that the odds are against the Bills in both cases. Naaman Roosevelt is a nice story, but probably isn't anything more than a marginal guy. Derek Hagan and the rest of last year's stop-gaps are just that. I don't blame the Bills for not going hard after the FA WRs as not many will be very good (IMHO). I think that we'll see a WR taken in the first 3 rounds of the draft, but I would not necessarily bet on it. I think that there might be some decent talent available in round 2 at WR (I wouldn't be too surprised if Baylor's Kendall Wright is available at the top of round 2, unless he runs MUCH faster than he did at the combine. I'd consider Ryan Broyles in round 2 or 3, but you have to accept that he might not contribute much this year coming off a knee injury. I am OK with that, but some here think draft picks have to contribute a lot in year one or they are busts. FWIW, maybe the best receivers available in round 2 might be TEs. I'd strongly consider Coby Fleener at the Bills' 2nd pick over most of the WRs.

By this standard, I wonder if Eli would still be in NY to have won his 2 Super Bowls. I also wonder if he'd have won even one if the Giants hadn't had their dominant D. By the same standard, Drew Brees would be out of the NFL, Jim Plunkett would never have won a Super Bowl and Steve Young would not have gotten a chance in SF. Peyton Manning would have surely been released by the Colts because he didn't win the SB in his first several seasons.... Players improve (sometimes), other parts of the team matter besides QB.

I think Kelsay is actually a pretty good run-stuffing DE who might show some pass rush with Williams, Dareus and Williams on the same line now. The other problem with your proposal is that there are no good free agent offensive tackles to sign. Bell is among the best on the market.

Very insightful comments, but I can't see Stephen Hill being a good pick at all. Hill caught all of 28 passes in his last season and a weak total of 49 for his entire college career. If a team takes him in round 1 at all, let alone at 10, it will be a major gamble. Hill did at least have a high yards-per-catch average. I acknowledge that GT is a run first, run second and then MAYBE pass team, but still that is WEAK production for a high #1 pick. In comparison, Calvin Johnson caught 178 passes in his college career at the same school (about 4.5x what Hill caught in the same number of years). In comparison to Demarius Thomas (also from GT), he caught 120 passes in 3 years (about 2.5x what Hill caught).

I am not a scout, but follow the draft closely. I don't like that draft at all. I think Brown and Irvin would be less than impactful in this defense. Yes, they are the right size, but Brown has questions about his toughness and Irvin is a never-was starter in college. He is limited to a situational pass rusher in the NFL (both IMHO). Mychal Kendricks is a football player and might be available in the 3rd. I would rather have Reiff, Kuechly, or Irving and one 2nd round pick than Gilmore, Brown and Irvin (and even another pick).

I think that Mario Williams, Marcel Dareus and Kyle Williams will provide a significant upgrade to the last several year's extremely weak pass rushes. However, there is still not a lot of pass rush coming from the other DE position or any of the LB positions. No single player (IMHO) will make THAT big of a difference. NOTE, I am not necessarily advocating taking Ingram at #10, but I could definitely see why they might. I also like LT Reiff and (maybe Martin) and LB Kuechly. I just want them to try to get a very good player with a high floor that can be a starter for a number of years. What is your take on who will play RDE (the main pass rush position in the 4-3) for the Bills this year?

I just don't see it with Floyd. He did well in college when he wasn't suspended for alcohol related problems (3x). He played at a college that has to be within the top 10 in terms of ease of recruiting top level players. I don't especially like his hands and I don't like WRs that high in the draft. There have been WAY too many WRs that have busted taken high in round 1. Go ask Matt Millen what that did for his career. I will admit that SOME outstanding WRs have been taken high in round 1, but I am not ready to compare Floyd to Calvin Johnson or Andre Johnson. My vote, so far is one of the following: OT Riley Reiff DE Melvin Ingram (yes, even with the Mario Williams signing) LB Luke Kuechly (IF the Bills scouts think he can be an outstanding OLB). DE Quinton Coples (ONLY IF the Bills' scouts can explain away his weak last season).

Even with the less-than-quick Upshaw, where does the pass rush come from? Upshaw is an excellent college football player and will (IMHO) be a good, not great, NFL player at 4-3 DE. He does not have the speed, quickness or length to be a top-level NFL 4-3 DE, but could be a very good solid Left Defensive End who stuffs the run and provides some pass rush via his bull-rush. However, for those here who do not appreciate Chris Kelsay, that is exactly what he (Kelsay) does. FWIW, I think Kelsay is a good NFL Left Defensive End who holds up well vs the run and does an OK job as a pass rusher. It is only because the other pass rushers are so weak that Kelsay looks less than good (again, IMHO).

I am not totally scared off by Kirkpatrick having smoked pot, but I just don't think he will be that good - especially against the Pats' smaller quicker receivers. Even at 6'2" he isn't a match for Gronkowski or Hernandez who are still considerably taller and stronger than him. Just my opinion, but I think taller CBs don't have the change-of-direction quickness to match up with most WRs in the NFL. I personally would prefer any of the following to Kirkpatrick (and there are others that I'd take over Kirkpatrick too): DE/pass rusher Melvin Ingram - Mario Williams alone does not solve the pass rush problems this team has had for years. MLB/OLB Luke Kuechly - only if the team was confident that he could play OLB or that they like him far better than Kelvin Sheppard whom the team seems to think highly of. OT Riley Reiff - If he is available, he could very well be the pick.