OldTimer1960

I think that Newton is an AWFUL gamble that high in the draft. Here are my reasons: 1. There are few, if any, running QBs that succeed in the NFL. I guess you could say Vick has - but he was not that successful until Andy Reid salvaged his career (late in his career) and even now you have to wonder if he is a "one year wonder" in the NFL. Maybe you could point to Steve Young (who was actually a good passer, too and played in a more-similar pro-type offense at BYU then got some USFL experience before sitting behind Joe Montana in SF). Of the bunch, I might compare Newton to a bigger/stronger Randall Cunningham. Now, Cunningham wasn't a bad NFL QB, but would he be worth the 3rd overall pick in the draft? 2. Newton has only 1 year of productivity on the NCAA Div 1 level and his productivity was largely running (and passing productivity enhanced by the threat of him running). I don't think that he'll duplicate his running success against NFL defenses and that will significantly hinder his passing success. 3. Newton comes across as a very polished/slimey used-car salesman type. Note that I am not saying that he is dumb as I believe that he's reasonably intelligent. I just think that there is a lot of "fake" to him. 4. Newton comes with a lot of character concerns that can be the death-blow to a team if he is installed as the starter. Allegations of stolen laptops at Fla, allegations of academic fraud in the J.C. ranks and only one year at Auburn.... I am not asserting that Newton will be a bust, only my opinion that he is way too risky for the Bills to consider at the 3rd overall pick.

I respectfully say this should not even be remotely a consideration. They've tried this route several times before and if the team still sucks, it doesn't matter a lick. Personally, I see some case for Gabbert, I'd run away from Newton (too raw, too slick, too much bad character history) and I'd strongly lean toward defensive front 7. If you insist on getting an "athletic" QB, I'd consider trading back into round 1 for Locker or staying pat and hoping that Locker or Kapaernick are there for the Bills' 2nd pick.

I agree with not wanting any of the QBs this year at #3, but the same can be said of any position. Whomever they pick, whatever position is a roll of the dice that may or may not pan out.

I think it's you can't tip your hand, man. As in, don't hold your hand of cards so that others can see them. Tipping your hat is a polite gesture.

I'm just saying that it isn't a given that he can. That type of mobility is sort of innate and is as much mental ability as it is physical. If it was easy, then guys like Drew Bledsoe would have mastered it. Anyone who remembers Bledsoe being a complete statue behind the Bills' OL can readily say that he didn't.

Great, we can put Peterson, Spiller and McKelvin back for KO and punt returns and have the best return potential ever in the NFL. And they'll need it after giving up 200 yards rushing per game again this year. Nobody will ever know if Peterson can cover anyone as no offense will be foolish enough to abandon gouging the Bills run defense and dominating time of possession on the way to easy wins. Seriously, I don't know if Peterson is the best player in the draft or just a very athletic over-size CB who will end up having to move to safety and a good KR. Whatever, without being able to stop the run or generate a pass rush, the Bills could put the best 4 DBs in the history of the NFL back there and continue to get toasted every week.

It's a mixture of both (and an inexact one at that). You have to consider college production, level of competition, scheme played in, number of years of production athletic ability, has he "maxed-out" or does he have upside, injury history, learning ability/versatility and a host of other things. This is exactly why there are high-round busts and late-round surprises every single year. Even NFL scouting offices who spend $millions can't turn this into a black-and-white, easy to evaluate proposition.

I agree that QB 40 time is not a big factor, but I don't know if he even has the subtle movement skill to avoid rushers within the pocket. Combine that with questions about his character, work ethic and judgement and I'm not very interested (though, he has so much arm talent that top o the 3rd I might be tempted).

I have reservations about him based on what I've read. I've seen multiple places question his "instincts". I don't care what kind of athletic freak he is, at ILB you have to be able to diagnose and react quickly. I think ILB is probably the position that you can most get away with less than great athletic ability. Now, I recognize that not all of these draft analyses are dead-on, so I am not dead-set against him, just wary of him is all.

Well, don't I know that! Wish I could come out of retirement to make $750K, but the market for slow, small 50 year old NTs is very weak right now...

I like the Sportingnews' Russ Lande because he is willing to state his opinions about players rather than just rate someone high or low because everyone else rates them that way. Is he always right? Of course not (and neither is anyone else including NFL scouts). Lande has a little more credibility (at least in my opinion) than most because he has experience working as an NFL scout. My favorite sources of draft information are Lande's GM Jr draft guide, ProFootball Weekly's draft guide (Nolan Nawrocki) and Mike Mayock on NFL Network.

There will be different opinions about every player. If there is even a hint of him being lazy when the Bills investigate him throughly, then they should definitely stay away. They may find that this report is unfounded, in which case, great.

You are assuming that there will be a good starting-caliber LB candidate to pick in round 2. I don't know that that is a good assumption.

How does he suddenly become a low risk-high reward player at the 34th pick? Maybe the risk/reward ratio is better then than early in the first, but he would still be a very risky pick that high in the 2nd round (IMHO). He might be a bigger, stronger Randal Cunningham or he might be another Tarvaris Jackson.

The Sportingnews' review of Justin Houston isn't very complementary. It describes him as a tremendous athlete, but raw and lazy. If that is a fair assessment of Houston, then I wouldn't spend a 2nd round pick on him. The Bills are building a team with dedicated, try-hard guys including Eric Wood, Levitre, Kyle Williams etc. They are trying to avoid the elite athletes who don't work. http://warroom.sportingnews.com/nfl/draft/2011/players/10465.html

I disagree with the notion that QB is not the Bills' biggest need. I like Fitzpatrick and I respect him a great deal. Heck, I hope that he proves me wrong, but IMHO he is not a top 15 QB in the NFL. I know that people hold up Trent Dilfer and Mark Rypien as examples of Super Bowl winning QBs who weren't considered very good-to-great QBs, but Fitz (again, imo) is not in their category in terms of physical skills. Now, I think he is great at getting the team into good plays against the defense, he can direct the OL's blocking schemes and he makes good quick decisions with where to go with the ball. However, he is more akin to the junk-ball pitcher in MLB than he is to the front-line #1 or #2 starter. He might be the NFL's version of Tim Redding. I don't know if Blaine Gabbert is that elusive top 1/2 of the league starting QB or not, but if the Bills believe he is, then I think the Bills MUST pick him (if he is available). I know that their D is awful (and I don't want to watch a debacle like that again), but the opportunity to pick an answer at QB is too much to pass on for any reason (again, if they are very confident in Gabbert's ability, desire, effort, intelligence, etc). IMHO, Cam Newton is too much of an uncertainty to consider at the Bills' pick.

Other message boards are saying "No way does Buffalo pass on Gabbert or Newton. The Bills should be in panic mode right now b/c Fitzpatrick is their starter and Brohm is their backup".

From what I've read, I'd prefer McCarthy to Greg Jones. I've read that Jones is not strong against the run (he is a good drag-down tackler though). The Bills need someone who can step up and fill the lanes without being dragged for several yards. Is Greg Jones a bad player? No, but (IMHO) when the rest of your defense lacks the ability to stack the run, his short-comings will be magnified.

I really don't know if I like Quinn after he didn't play at all this year. From what I understand he was very good, but not Great, in the drills and disappointed in the weight lifting after sitting out all year. Why wasn't he in the gym lifting if he wasn't playing - if he was lifting, why isn't he stronger?

Stay away from Fairley IMHO. He looks wimpy compared to many of the other DL and he really has some questions to answer in terms of why he only produced for 1 year. He doesn't look like he has worked very hard in preparation for the combine (at least to me). While I would prefer a DL over a LB, I think Von Miller is a safer pick if Dareus or Bowers isn't available when the Bills pick. I MIGHT prefer Cam Jordan over Fairley at this point. Flame away...

You may be right, but I have a hard time believing that 6'1 1/2" Williams is the answer at 3-4 DE, when teams are looking for DEs that are 6'4"+. I also think that there is no reason to believe that Troup won't improve in his second year. Plus a #1 pick and a #2 pick at NT is going to be hard to support in terms of roster composition. I think that Williams has SOME chance to succeed at DE, but I think that is questionable - just my $.02 worth though.

I don't know that they need a "big old DT" in round 1. Kyle Williams is pretty good and they spent an early #2 on Torrel Troup last year (and he should be much better next year). If they draft a DT in round 1, it will necessarily push Williams to the bench or put him out of position at DE and keep Troup on the bench. From an investment perspective, I can't see a team being able to have a #1 and #2 pick at NT.

I'd prefer to pass on Nick Fairley, though. He has only produced for 1 year, has some character concerns and was very good, but hot super at the combine. No thanks.

I think Sam Acho would struggle at DE in a 3-4 at 6'1.5" and 257lbs. He would most likely have to play OLB and I can't see 2 LBs in the first 2 rounds. Not that Acho or Miller wouldn't be interesting picks, just not both.

I do not agree with picking him in the 2nd round. There are a lot of red flags around this guy and even discounting those, he doesn't look like a good fit for the Bills. He is big, but immobile and supposedly doesn't make good decisions even when given a lot of time. How bad might he be under the constant rush that he'd face with the Bills' weak OL?