BADOLBILZ

It's a bunch of factors making more young QB's more productive............it really started 10 years ago with Goodell making it very hard to be violent with QB's and WR's.........the fear of being hit while prone was always the biggest limiting factor. Then......after the spike in passing production......... you had the big money going the QB and WR positions. That draws young talent to those positions and it helps the NFL get players that used to go to other sports(see Kyler Murray most recently). And the training these young guys get is very advanced now..........it's easier to access information and the money involved has created a whole QB development industry. Then the implementation of more college style offense.......like RPO's.......have made the reads and throws easier for young QB's. I also think that teams are finding it too expensive to throw tons of money at defense.........and you almost need to be outstanding at every position to be outstanding at defense with the offense having so many advantages........and that is just much harder to sustain than offense is. It's a lot of factors that have favored the expansion of the passing game/QB play.

So you are saying that we shouldn't be surprised that a bunch of fringe analysts of no import might have had it wrong about Josh Allen? Agreed.

I feel like we had a full year to prepare for the QB pick though..........the organization wasn't hiding their intention to draft one.........and by mid-college-season we knew that Josh Allen could be one of them.........so that part didn't catch anyone off guard. I think the feeling that best describes seeing your early draft pick seeming to live up to expectations is "satisfying" or "gratifying"...........when you pick a QB early you expect big things.........if you are actually astonished when he does well then you probably were very skeptical.

To put that season in perspective.......in the prior two weeks......they had beaten Brett Favre at home on a dramatic late game interception as the Pack were near the goal line ready to score....... and had somehow just lost by 1 point to Peyton Manning in Indy holding that score down to 17-16.......very edge of your seat finishes....and Bills fans were loving the direction of Jauron ball.......they reached 7-7.......a 9-7 Chiefs team made the playoffs that year.......but a heartbreaking 30-29 loss at home to Tennessee(***** Robert Royal) put them at 7-8 and basically put an end to the Jaurondimonium that was building. It wasn't a Super Bowl team but it was VERY similar in style to the 2017 Bills that you were probably amazed by.

Needs change fast in the NFL.........and offense is much more likely to be sustainable long term and therefore the better use of early round picks. Defensive success is fleeting.......the McD Bills are proof of that.......but even the great Seattle defense could only be kept together for a few years and when they won the SB they were actually the youngest team in the entire NFL. When you are built on defense your foundation is built on sand.

I did not see THAT.........but there were some pundits who had high regard for his talent and some who did not. Some fans focus on the analysts with negative takes and miss all the positives. For example.......Mel Kiper isn't amazed. Allen was often mocked #1 overall in the year prior to his draft......he was a big time prospect. I've said it before but in more drafts than not from 1990-2017 Josh Allen probably goes #1 overall..........tall, athletic, big armed passers with excellent intangibles don't usually fall too far.

1) The OP. The literal definition of "amazing" is "to be filled with astonishment". 2) I've said that if you aren't using it on a QB.........a first round pick is the most overrated personnel chip. Fans always EXPECT a first round pick to become a star...........but less than half play well enough to even get their 5th year option picked up. QB's are a bit more of a risk.........I think @Kirby Jackson had a data set once that said you could expect about 15% of first round QB's to become franchise QB's........but the reward is so much higher than that of drafting any other position so what was amazing was how few shots the Bills had taken at QB's in round 1 in the prior 58 drafts.

Losman to Peerless for the game winning TD in Houston in 2006 was far more clutch..........that sh*t was crazy. Down 21-17 Jauron punted the ball with just 2:10 left. And somehow it worked because the Texans went 3 and out and punted and Losman brought them down the field and hurled a great pass to Peerless Price who made a diving TD grab with :09 left for the upset win. That was probably the height of Losman AND Jauron's careers in Buffalo. It's easy to forget that football has been played in Buffalo prior to now but there have been clutch plays and Bills games that ended in spectacular fashion prior to yesterday. It wasn't any big surprise that Josh lead the Bills to a go ahead TD with all that time and TO's left.......had they not gotten a TD on that play it had just been second down with a lot of time and a timeout in hand..........they were still going to get a pretty makable game tying field goal attempt.

It's been fun and it's impressive how much work Allen has put in........ but we shouldn't be astonished by a QB who was picked 7th overall playing at a high level in year 3.

My advice is let go of blaming officiating for ANYTHING. I did that after HR Throwback and it's never bothered me since. Try to remember that it's a violent, unkind, war game and the real objective is to dominate the opponent. Too many times teams coach and play themselves into close games.........mostly by varying their style and effort to the scoreboard. If you really dominate a team the officiating will not matter..........if the score is left close.........you leave your fortune in the hands of fate/chance. The Bills played themselves into a close game...........your contention that they should have dominated the scoreboard if not for the officiating neglects their own myriad of mistakes, IMO.

I know Carson Palmer tried to sell this as simply a footwork and shoulder alignment issue..........but putting touch on a throw is subtle and a lot of it is from the shoulder down. The very good touch passers can deliver it from multiple foot and shoulder positions.

Oh he's improved......... but there are guys who can make all of the throws..........and specifically throw with much better touch..........Mahomes, Rodgers and Russ to name the most prominent. For them, that touch is a gift or something they developed long before the NFL..........for Josh it's something he is still trying to turn into a positive. I think he will get there but when nearly every ball that he throws over 30 yards in the air falls 10 feet or more off target I think it begins to become a self-sustaining problem............getting him someone who can retrieve the errant throw would help with the mental aspect, IMO.

I know fans love seeing the opposing player get surprised and get their bell rung a little..........but not sure why fans are having such a hard time grasping this rule. If your intention is just to block then don't throw your body into it......just extend your arms and move your feet.........if you try to stop them cold with any kind of violent collision it's going to get a penalty. The same people who hate this also probably hated Jarvis Landry plowing over Aaron Williams and finishing off his career...........it's always "just football" until its your player.

Shaq had a history of being somewhat less than focused on reaching his potential...........that's why they didn't trust him enough to pick up his 5th year option after 3 years of flat production. The early returns in Miami aren't good. Johnson and Epenesa are works in progress. Johnson is buying time for himself by being very impactful on special teams. Epenesa shows flashes but his experience in Iowa was similar........he came in as a rare 5 star recruit.........then seemed to struggle to adapt to the college game........until the switch went on and then he was a beast. The hope here is that Epenesa gets stronger and smarter and develops better technique..........but the one thing about him versus Shaq is you probably don't have to worry about seeing him in the Buffalo airport on Sunday evening after a game with bags of popeye's chicken as he goes to play Wooderson on his "off" day at his old college campus. The feeling is that Epenesa is going to work for it...........if he doesn't get there it won't be as obviously why Shaq hasn't.

I am a huge fan of Allen. But he's not the most gifted QB in the NFL. He has the biggest arm and his skillset is unique..........but he has well below average natural touch throwing the football for a starting NFL QB..............he's one of the worst at it, really..............he still LABORS to drop the ball into the bucket on deep passes and can't feather the ball in like you want on plays like screens and those are where things most often go to hell for him. He will have to develop that skill.........it's not innate to him. But I feel like he will because he is going to work on it until he is good at it. I know I bang the DK Metcalf drum around here plenty but that type of skillset........the ability to get deep and then extend and turn into a massive target for innacurate throws.........is probably the greatest gift this organization could give to him at this point.

Singletary has a poor feel for the pass game and possibly some doubt in his own hands. He slowed down, perhaps hoping to focus on catching the ball, then had to lunge for the pass. Allen was leading him where he was supposed to be.......behind his blockers.......he has to move fluidly to the point and catch that ball with his hands out in front of his body to carry him to his blocking. If Allen puts that pass between his numbers there is a defender bearing down inside who has a chance to make the tackle.........a defender who was otherwise blocked out of the play. Something similar happened in the Chiefs game and resulted in an egregious over throw.

Shaq has literally half as many sacks and TFL's as Addison to this point............he hasn't been good at all......think 2016-2018 Shaq....... and they have him on the books for $10.5M guaranteed next year. And if you think he was going to be a difference maker against Murray in the open field you are nuts. Addison has been somewhat disappointing but he's been able to fill in some at the Lorax position as well as DE........he had good plays against Mahomes as a spy and has 3 passes defensed thus far this season too. Much more versatile player. They gotta' get better than Addison and Shaq at DE........hopefully Johnson and Epenesa become those guys..........but Addison is just a rental and not one of their bigger issues on defense.

At worst Addison and Shaq are a wash...........Addison isn't exceptional by any means but he has more sacks and TFL's than Shaq and he also has played some of the Alexander role so he's had several passes defensed and has some positional versatility. In Miami Shaq looks like the guy that played for Rex and then had his 5th year option turned down by Beane........not the guy who was playing his hardest for a contract last year. If you think Shaq could do better against Murray you are likely wrong...............and the Fish are stuck with him until then because the dead cap next year would be over $10.5 M. Addison's job isn't safe with his dead money only being $4M. Far from Beane's worst move.

The future first ballot HOF'er made a first ballot HOF'er play.......that's why he makes $25M this year.

Back in the day there were meatheads like Matt Millen with meathead narratives that always talked Bruce down for not being the same type of DL as Reggie. Not that Millen didn't turn out to be a great evaluator of talent in the 2000's............basically more in depth analytics really hushed a lot of dumb narratives in the past decade or so. Bruce would have annihilated next gen stats..........but more importantly his team would have been shamed out of playing him at DE in a 3-4........whatever team he was on would have played a 4-3 just because they had him.

It's Mahomes...........in the head to head matchup Allen played poorly. But otherwise nobody else has been clearly better than Allen.

When you see something close to the lean that Bruce had now it's from much smaller players like Von Miller.........basically OLB types. Bruce actually came into the NFL the same size or larger than Reggie White(Bruce was 300-310 at VA Tech and as a rookie in Buffalo, Reggie played at 290 but was often over 300). Smith knocked about 50 pounds off of his frame to become the specimen he was.

This may be the first time in my 22+ years on TSW that someone has called me a "homer".

Will Fuller is a tremendous deep ball receiver and he was the subject of a lot of trade speculation.....especially wrt Green Bay....... as a pending free agent. Word was Houston wanted too much. Kenny Stills was a cheaper option that could have been pursued. John Brown is the better overall WR than both if healthy though. As for the 1TDT..........I think that the Bills don't see it as the need that some fans do. The hand wringing about Star has been hilarious. I think they'd have preferred to cut him outright but settled for the pay cut option because they were still on the hook for a boatload. IMO they overloaded on 3T types in UFA because their inclination was to try to be more disruptive on the front. Further proof: They cut one of their better 1T options in Vincent Taylor at the end of camp and then when they had an opening they picked up the small disruptor Justin Zimmer instead of a big body. And there were no actual rumors about the Bills pursuing 1T options via trade either. Harrison Phillips has actually been playing quite well the past month in that traditional 1T role........but it's a tossup whether he is even active from game to game........so obviously that big body is not the priority to the Bills that it is some fans. Ultimately when you are rotating DT's do you need a 330# guy to just stand at the LOS and get in the way? If it's only for 15-20 snaps per game I think they expect Jefferson and Oliver and Butler and Zimmer to take turns........and at the same time provide some actual pressure when teams go to the air.

Definitely mixed feelings. I didn't think they would get enough mileage out of a defensive acquisition to justify the means........to me the defensive struggles are more scheme and effort related than simply needing a pass rusher or 1T or LB or CB2. But I definitely wanted another deep threat to give them what they had had with a healthy John Brown. A big play TE would have been nice but realistically there were none available. If Brown can recover and Davis continues to make a greater impact and Knox brings something to the table in the pass game then they will be just as well off as if they had traded for a Will Fuller..........and still have the picks they would have had to trade. But by the same token Brown was still limping around last game.........he's not 100% and may not be the rest of the season..........and Davis didn't really step up from weeks 3-8 when Brown was hurting........and Knox hasn't done anything this season...........so yeah it would be a lot more comforting to have a healthy deep threat or a seam stretching TE to counter the defenses that were slowing them down for a month. I don't think the team got a boost from the deadline passing the way sometimes MLB teams do though........in MLB players on the active roster often get dealt to make room for the upgrades........ or the ones who remain lose 95% of their playing time to the newcomer since you can only substitute a player once per game.....the trade deadline is traumatic in MLB. In the NFL players still split a lot of snaps........Davis and Brown would still get a chance earn more snaps every week......... and the guys at the bottom of the roster basically can go a month without playing and the churn is so great there that I don't think it affects team morale at all if somebody in the bottom 10 spots of the roster or so is jettisoned.