billsfan89

Producing quality NFL players helps a college coach win because top prospects will want to go to where they have the best path to the NFL. That being said if they have a system that wins but isn't always the best for the pros they will continue to run it as long as they win.

Rosen has some durability issues and he never really light the world on fire at UCLA. I do like his style of play and he has the physical and Rosen is exceptionally smart (I don't see how being too smart could be a negative.) I rank the QB's as such. 1- Darnold 2- Mayfield 3- Rosen 4- Jackson 5- Allen

The Bills O-line from 2015-2016 was a pretty good unit, a dominating run blocking unit and an average pass blocking unit. Injecting InCog a damn good left guard inbetween Glenn a (who was a stud from 2015-2016) and Wood (An above average center, and even in the 7 games Wood was hurt last season he was replaced by Groy who played well) made the difference to turn the O-line in a good unit (Miller being solid at RG helped too.) Going into 2017 the only big issue with the O-line was RT and they drafted a tackle in round 2 not to mention there was attention to detail paid with depth not letting Groy and Mills go. When your best player in a unit gets hurt and another player you were counting on to be a starter (Milller) struggled in a new scheme there is going to be a regression that you can only do so much to prevent. I think that you can expect to see at least one significant draft pick at RT or LG if not two. My ideal scenario is that the Bills trade 12, 22, a late round pick and a 2nd in 2019 to trade up to 4 and get Baker Mayfield or Rosen (I am hoping Allen goes ahead of one of those other two.) I think that still gives the team picks 53, 56, 65, and 96 to address some other needs. They could easily get their QB of choice and draft a LG, WR, LB, and RT with those picks and realistically get 2 impact starters.

I think the risk of running QB's getting hurt is certainly higher esp if you aren't built like a tank like Cam Newton. But I really like Jackson as a QB project. Lamar Jackson has Michael Vick levels of ability but unlike Vick, Jackson is a really coachable kid. Jackson has a good work ethic by all reports and a desire to be a great QB. Vick in Atlanta got by on his amazing athletic ability and did not work on his game or take to the coaching. Jackson can be coached up much better than Vick which to me makes his potential ability that much higher. If the Bills can't get a trade up for a top 4 QB I wouldn't mind Jackson as a plan B if he is there at pick 12. Sit Jackson for 2 years behind AJ, using picks 22, 53, 56, 65, and 96 they can fill a lot of needs particularly at O-line, WR, and LB and put good talent around AJ and round out the defense a bit.

I think it's easy to forget about context. Glenn's injury was more serious than it was projected to be as camp went underway. But going into the draft they expected Glenn to be the LT and spent that 2nd round pick to fill the hole at RT, they went into the season with an O-line that you could say was a good unit, things fell apart but they had 4 starting caliber players (Glenn-InCog-Wood-Miller) and drafted a tackle in round 2 to fill the hole at RT. They also signed Ducasse, resigned Groy and resigned Mills for depth. Even this offseason they signed Bodine and Newhouse as depth despite limited cap space. The WR situation is dire, even before Zay Jones had his off the field. Kelvin Benjamin is a low end WR1 or a high end WR2. Zay might be a solid slot receiver but I wouldn't count on him much. Holmes doesn't impress me much, at best he is a mid level WR4 or a high end WR5. I can't think of any pro-caliber WR's on the roster. If you want to tell me that the administration doesn't put resources into WR then I am onboard but I think they have been pretty solid as far as the O-line.

My point wasn't that the team shouldn't trade up for a QB, but rather that if the team is going to trade up I would rather they use more picks from 2018 to do so.

The QB's this year are much more valued than last year. Combination of the prospects being more coveted this year and more teams having draft capital to bid on. Mahomes and Watson were rated similar to Lamar Jackson this season. I think the context of the trades are much different. I think the Bills got a decent return.

I would rather the Bills give up more 2018 picks than the 2019 1st. I think giving up a 1st is always super dangerous as if your season falls apart you can really get set back. I think the Bills have enough draft capital to make a big move up for a QB without including the 2019 1st. Include a 2nd in 2019 if you have to but that 1st is a hard asset to give up.

Once again you are playing this out in hindsight and not taking into the context of the time. Miller coming off of 2 pretty decent seasons and was the starter at RG. He clearly wasn't a fit for the scheme so his playing time slowly got eroded away once he looked out of place in training camp and pre-season. But going into the 2017 season there was no reason to think that RG was a massive hole. Cordy Glenn missed 5 games in 2016, injury was a concern but he had started all 16 games in 2014 and 2015 and 11 out of 16 in 2016. It was not irresponsible of the team to think Glenn would likely play effectively. They drafted Dawkins to play RT and they spent a 2nd round pick in doing so. I think that you are thinking that because things didn't pan out that with injuries and scheme fits that the GM and coach don't care about the O-line. When in reality they had a good unit going into last season with only one major hole and they spent a 2nd round pick trying to fix that hole (not to mention that they kept Groy as good depth and resigned Mills on the cheap both players helped with depth.) Even this off-season they signed Newhouse and Bodine two nice depth players. The O-line needs a lot of help but I don't see what makes you think that the regime isn't going to spend at least 1 premium pick to help out the unit unless a massive trade up for a QB occurs (Even then I think a good pick will still be spent on LG or RT.)

They did try to address it last year, they had Glenn at LT and drafted Dawkins to play RT. Mills was not intended to be the starter going into last season. So I don't get where this perception that the current administration lacks care for the O-line comes from. Going into last season they had a line of Glenn (A dam fine LT when healthy) - InCog (A good LG coming off of 2 probowls) - Wood (An above average starting center) - Miller (A young guard coming off of some pretty decent seasons) - Dawkins (A 2nd round pick they traded up to get) Glenn got hurt and Miller regressed beyond reasonable expectation, that is what caused the O-line to regress. The construction of last years O-line to start the season was not bad at all.

My ideal trade back would be to go up to 4 for Baker Mayfield by giving up 12, 22, The Bills 4th, and a 2019 2nd. That still leaves the Bills picks 53, 56, 65, and 96 to address other needs and losing a 2019 2nd hurts but I can live with that as the 1st in 2019 is the one pick I would hate to have to give up.

Mills is an above average run blocker (although not a mauler by any definition.) But I can honestly say he might be one of the worst pass blockers in the NFL certainly as a starter. I think as a backup he isn't bad to have on the roster but going into the season with him as a starter is nearly criminal. Granted I have faith in the GM to address it because they did bring in Dawkins as the intended RT last season, it proves they aren't comfortable with Mills since Cordy's injury is the only reason Mills got starts last year.

The team will still be competitive even if they trade 3 high draft picks plus a pick in 2019. They will still have some draft capital to address at least 1-2 other needs and the roster isn't terrible as is. They will then have a complete windfall of cap space to build the roster back up and build around a QB.

2018 is a wash for me as a Bills fan expectations-wise. I think that the Bills are going to trade up for a QB and won't have a dramatic amount of draft capital left over to address other needs (of which there are many WR, LG, RT, LB, CB, Pass rush, and secondary/depth needs at TE, DT, and RB) and the depth of the team is suspect. If The Bills keep their picks they can address some needs but there will be big holes on the roster even if they hit on most of their early picks. Get me a stud rookie QB and take the best players available with the picks you have left over. 2018 I don't have much expectations if a big trade up for a QB is to occur. But 2019 the team's windfall of cap space will occur and they will have their Qb in place and they will be in position for sustained success.

Bordine graded out very poorly and most Bengals fans will tell you that he wasn't that good (so he passes neither the eye test or advanced metrics.) I think having an experienced center as a backup isn't bad but I wouldn't count on him as a starter. Newhouse and Mills are about equal, both would be capable backups but neither are great starters. Groy and Dawkins are the only starters on the line I am comfortable with, Miller at RG I am 50/50 on, if the staff feels Miller will convert to the new scheme then at best you still are down 2 starters at LG and RT.

InCog's retirement means that there is a glaring hole at LG now. Even if you are comfortable with Groy at Center (Which I am) and Dawkins at LT (Which I am) and the regime feels like John Miller in a new scheme will turn it around at RG there still are 2 glaring holes along the O-line. I think you have to see a fairly high pick along the O-line.

I wonder what Lamar Jacksons grade is. Jackson is a risky pick since he needs to polish up his fundamentals a lot and he could use some maturity. But Jackson has unmatched athleticism for a QB, the most athletic QB prospect since Cam Newton and arguably the best athlete at QB since Vick came out. Jackson is super fast, he has a cannon arm, and while he might not come off as the brightest kid he by all accounts has a good work ethic and has football smarts. I think Jackson has the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft. Jackson could develop into what Vick was on the Eagles that one magic season but unlike Vick who wasted a lot of his physical prime in Atlanta relying on his athleticism and not working hard, Jackson could acquire that passing capability much earlier in his physical prime. 2010 Eagles Vick was a QB that you could win a Super Bowl with. Vick never sustained that level of success with the Eagles because he was already 30 by the time he got into the right system and he had sustained major injuries in Atlanta (Plus rules protecting the QB weren't as good back in the 00's as they are now.) Jackson is a project but he is a tantalizing project. I wouldn't trade up for Jackson but if the top 4 QB's are gone by pick 6 then I don't think Jackson at pick 12 is a bad fall back. The team would still have 4 picks remaining in the top 65 to address other needs and can build a better team around AJ while Jackson sits for at least 2 seasons.

1:12 Baker Mayfield QB Oklahoma 1:22 Vita Vea NT Washington 2:21 Harrison Phillips DE Stanford 2:23 Chukwuma Okorafor OT Western Michigan 3:1D.J. Moore WR Maryland 3:32 Alex Cappa OT Humboldt St. 4:21Auden Tate WR Florida St. 5:29 Jalen Davis CB Utah St. 6:13 Lowell Lotulelei DT Utah This simulator is a bit awful. No way Mayfield is there at 12, Vea there at 22 is also a stretch.

If the Giants take Barkley at 2 for some reason, then the Browns will be in business at pick 4. They get their QB at pick 1 and then without Barkely their at 4 I think they certainly would turn down 12, 22, and a 2nd next year for pick 4. The Browns could get their QB and draft 12, 22, 33, 36, and 64, while pocketing a 2nd in 2019 (Which would hypothetically give them an extra 3rd and 2nd in 2019 thanks to the Danny Shelton trade.) But that being said I don't think the Giants pass on Rosen or Darnold.

Jackson at 12 was smart, he is a project but he has Michael Vick levels of athleticism and ability, but unlike Vick he has a good work ethic and willingness to learn. I would go O-line at pick 22, the right side of the line is a mess and outside of Dawkins and Groy there isn't a lot of youth along the O-line. Take someone to fix the right side and fill out some more needs in round 2.

The Bills were a mid-level team that got lucky, good turnover luck, some tiebreakers fell the teams way, and they had enough talent to beat bad teams.

You can contend with a game manager as a QB if you have a great defense, good to great special teams unit, and a lot of talent surrounding the QB. Most recently Denver proved that you don't need a dynamic QB to win a Super Bowl. However, since 2000 only 3 teams have really accomplished a title without at least a top 10 QB (Ravens 2000, Tampa Bay 2002, and Denver 2015 only other one you can argue is Ravens 2012 but 2012 Joe Flacco had a good regular season and an amazing postseason.) So at best you have 4 teams out of 18 that won a Super Bowl without top 10 play at Quarterback. So if you look at the percentages not having a top 10 QB is a huge impediment to winning and contending consistently. Even considering the fact that paying a QB close to 20% of your cap compromises other aspects of your roster it still is a tremendous advantage to have a top 10 QB considering how hard it is to have an effective and consistent offense without one. Tons of teams with a stacked roster but subpar QB's make the playoffs and some even win games or make it to the Super Bowl. But eventually, in the playoffs, you run into a team that has a top 10 QB and a capable defense and your team will more than likely lose. You also still run into cap issues even if you aren't paying a QB much. Your best defensive players and the best players in other parts of the offense will want to get paid sooner rather than later. So it isn't like building up the rest of the roster and going cheap on a QB is sustainable more so than paying a top QB a lot of money either. The cap, injuries, and players getting older will always make consistent contention almost impossible in the NFL. Unless you have the perfect storm like the Pats* where you have a top 3 QB willing to take less money, a HOF coach, and a consistently bad division then consistent contention will always be next to impossible to achieve.

If the Browns pass on Darnold for Allen they are !@#$ing up on a grand scale. If the Bills trade up to 2 and Darnold is there then they should take him in 10 seconds.

If the Bills were to dump 4 of their 5 premium picks to get a QB this year they still would have a 2 top 96 picks to acquire talent plus mid-round picks to sure up depth. I also think you are underestimating the windfall of cap space this team is about to get in 2019. In 2019 most of the remaining significant contracts on the team are able to be ousted with little cap penalties. The Bills could easily get 20-30 million more in cap space by cutting players towards the back end of their deals. It's fairly easy to think that the Bills could have a QB in place with a full draft class and 100 million or more to spend. 2018 is about finding the QB, 2019 is about getting a lot of talent around that QB.

I wouldn't mind signing Meredith and trying to get White for a 7th or 6th next year. The Bills receiving core beyond Benjamin and the hope of Zay Jones bouncing back is pretty bleak. Take a flyer on both players and draft a player in the 3rd or 2nd. There isn't much left on the market so take a chance on some players and if one pans out that's a lot of help.