thurst44

Cool topic. I've built up a hearty hate (well, not really hate--football fan "hate") for most of the AFC (and Cowboys, Eagles, WFT), but the few NFC teams I'm OK with winning other than against us: New York Giants -- live here, know many fans who are lovely people, Tiki Barber did great for my fantasy team a few years. Green Bay Packers -- love the fanbase and the Lambeau Leap and feel like they are our cousin in emphatic small-town fandoms (also love that they have stock in team), liked Aaron Rodgers until recent nonsense in which whatever the true story is, there's not really a scenario that paints him in a favorable light here) Carolina Panthers -- know many people from the area and do an annual draft analysis on a local radio station there Players I'll root for are mostly just former Bills--and it's still hard in many cases to root for them as if they do great, they go into the "one that got away" category... Fitz - hard not to root for him and would love to see him in the playoffs someday, while admiring how he keeps finding his way back to starting roles. Shaq - could not root for him in Miami, but always thought he got a bad rap here. Jordan Phillips - I'm a well-wisher in that I wish him no specific harm.

Four games is a pretty good balance of respect and not having to play a 5th game at a weird time. Getting a Thanksgiving game two years after the last one may be the sweetest plum in terms of respect from the league. That's the ultimate regular season marquee game. You almost have to wonder if they are trying to make the Bills TG Day Game a thing.

I'd give them more leeway if they had not gone into a tailspin and won just one game while the Bills did not lose again until the AFC Championship game. Honestly though, it barely bothered me at the time as it felt fluky and them having a moment rather than us blowing it and that felt time a change. This was not who we were anymore and games like this felt like an exception instead of a pattern. That said, it is still tiresome to see it without it being once put in context. That the national press is airing it way too much is understandable--it's the sort of play that reminds people why they love football. It sells. That the Cardinals are doing it given how they did the opposite of capitalizing on it, just seems kind of sad.

Exactly. Funny story: Bills Pass D was ranked 1 and 4 in 2018 & 2019, two years in which Levi Wallace started 7 and 16(!) games respectively. I'm standing by my running argument that 2020 was a weird year for our defense (and yet Bills still were 13-3 and a game from the Super Bowl). I'm all for adding a veteran, but this attitude that the Bills are in dire shape at cornerback is silly.

Can't help but feel a lot of the D issues last year stemmed from a convergence of 2020 weirdness: having all these new players, a lack of Star, and less time to practice together. I'm truly excited to see what this defense does in 2021 b/c if the reversion to the mean is the top 5 defense of 2018 & 19, this is going to be one hell of a team.

You left out the most important part!!! Did you find any good vinyl? (also it was a fun story)

JessicaWalter.mp4

Hah, he does seem like a totally loveable guy and I was totally on the Jasper train at the time. I hear in the seventh season of The Brandon Beane Show they'll introduce a tiny alien who only he can see, as well as a 7-year-old cousin who comes to live with the Buffalo Bills.

Yeah, why would anyond defend a GM of a team that has gone from 6-10 to 10-6 (playoffs) to 13-3 (one game from Super Bowl). It's hard to defend that. Been there with the pets though, although one of my cats seems to love Brandon Beane (is staring at his press conference as if he were a bird).

Mike Jasper is the David Sills V of Da'Rick Rogerses

This guy is an even bigger bust, as he was a top ten pick. He was comically bad when with the NY Giants. Some days on WFAN when I was driving home from work (I'm in Jersey, about 6 miles from Meadowlands) and every single call was about how much they hated Ereck Flowers. Remember when everyone was fawning over Miami's off-season last year? Other than Byron Jones (who was a good pickup), is there anyone from their Spring 2020 shopping spree remaining?

Wow, that escalated fast. I missed that he called Beane an idiot or a liar and if so, I certainly do not agree with that. I do think Beane will be a bit opaque in his intentions at time, which is fine. Honestly, I'm at the point with Beane where if there's a draft move or a pick that I think is dumb, and he makes it, I'll rethink my own strategy. I get mad if I see a GM ranking list and he's not at least top 10. At this point, the team's record has gone up substantially every offseason he's been here. I'll trust the process and after all these years, I'm thankful to have a team that seems to be working.

That's as good an argument that I've seen that they are going BPA, whatever you think he did the last few years, as the best player at any position is most likely to help you in the long run. I've always looked at BPA as best player for the longterm as opposed to best player immediately. For example, if you're drafting for the longterm it might make you more liable to draft, say, Caleb Farley, if you think his injury is temporary. Ultimately, what might be the problem here is that people have their own definitions of what "BPA" means or what different teams' needs are.

I guess it's semantics. I agree that sometimes it's good, sometimes it isn't. My annoyance (I was not annoyed by your post, btw... even said fair analysis) tends to stem from people who use this sort of thing to denigrate our current players. And it's a stupid pet peeve of mine when people act like there was a perception before the draft that just was not true (i.e. Epenesa was a stretch when he went over 17 picks after where the lowest person I could find had him). Sometimes BPA & need converge as you can arguably say happened with Edmunds. When I was doing mocks in Fanspeak et al, I usually had to trade up to get him when on a lark I did a non-QB draft. Allen is a great example of when drafting for need was a good idea. Although even then, Mel Kiper had him as the top player available. And, what do I know, I wanted Rosen. Allen won me over within a week, but still..

This is a fair enough analysis, but just b/c the draft fills a need does not mean that the player was not the BPA, for example, we picked Epenesa 17 picks later than any mock draft I could find. If the BPA happens to be at a spot that is a weaker spot on your roster than others, do you not draft the BPA just to show you are not drafting for need. Ford was a first round pick in some mocks. Knox, sure. Edmunds was a top ten pick in many mocks that year and I remember at the time the trade happened getting giddy and texting friends that it had to be for Tremaine Edmunds b/c he was dropping down the board. Allen, well, duh. With hindsight, he's the BPA :).

Really? Just b/c you think someone is better than the others does not mean that others do or that Beane is not drafting BPA. From the phone call, it was clear he thought he was BPA. However, yes Dobbins and Chinn looked great this year and Epenesa had a slow start (i thought he was beginning to show flashes at the end of the year. Anyway, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that you were a good prognosticator (at least for rookie year, the book on these players are nowhere near closed) and not just picking the two names from the second round who happened to shine in their first season. Most mocks had Epenesa in the first round and higher than both those players. First draft I found has Epenesa at 23 with Dobbins at 54 (to the Bills, funnily enough) and Chinn at 64. https://www.si.com/nfl/2020/03/20/mock-draft-11-three-rounds An update of that kept Epenesa and Chinn the same and moved Dobbins up to 44 The next one: Epenesa 37, Dobbins 45, Chinn 47 The next one: Epenesa 35, Dobbins 49, Chinn 51 The next one: Epenesa 37, Dobbins 45, Chinn 71 The next one: Epenesa 23, Dobbins 39, Chinn 50 Maybe he was not BPA in your mind, but to many football experts, Epenesa was clearly BPA. Also, your logic falls apart as clearly the team saw RB as a need as they drafted Moss in the next round.

While there's certainly some truth to this, my reasons for thinking we can make the Super Bowl (besides the Any Given Sunday of it all) have nothing to do with the Chiefs taking a step back. The Bills have enough young players at key positions and such continuity that I feel it is quite likely we take a step forward. Although, in fairness, I thought it very likely Mahomes would take a step back in his year three, so...

How does that explain improvement from first half to second half of year two or from year one to year two?

I don't agree about the Browns being a more talented roster by any stretch of the imagination, but I doubt I'll convince you that a lot of our good players are good, so hopefully we see how it goes during the season.

It's amazing to me how everyone is going so far in either direction about this player. One can argue he's living off the past, but it's way offbase to suggest that he's living off one play. Correct me if I'm wrong, but he was the number one recruit in the college coming out of high school. At South Carolina, he had a season with 23.5 tackles for loss and 13 sacks. I do also remember there was a prevailing attitude (or unconfirmed rumor) that no one wanted to pick him at number one, but that no one wanted to be the team that DIDN'T pick him at number one. My (admittedly amateur) take: he's better than people who think he's trash and worse than people who call him a gamechanger who just doesn't show up on the stat sheet. Clowney's attitude always seems to be talked about in whispers. He never seems like a bad guy, but there does seem to be a rep that he's not 100% head-in-the-game--but is it any more than rumors? The only thing we can truly go on is the fact he's jumped from team-to-team recently. He's a staunch run-stopper when people expect him to someday put up a 15-sack season (instead of the less than 5 he's averaged in a career). It's not a bad gamble for the Browns, unless he truly is the locker-room poison some suspect. By that token, it would probably have been a better gamble by the Bills. Maybe he lines up across from Garrett and Browns fans get the terror they're hoping for. Given his history, it's more likely he either helps a solid defense get better or doesn't fit in and is on to the next suitor in 2022. As a Bills fan, it doesn't worry me as Browns, for all their talent, still seem like a time bomb until they prove they aren't. Which Mayfield do you have (or was it just a bad line in 2019 and he's on his path to franchise status)? Is Stefanski a stabilizing factor or was the season a fluke? They have a lot of volatile players on there (one of their stars almost killed a man on the field), but the reason I still have to doubt stems from the on-field (well, when playing and not swinging helmets) Browns. Losing to the Jets in a key game (even with the injuries) is not a great look--they were this close to blowing it last year. Yes, they had those injuries, but Mayfield also fell apart. Bad games happen, and it doesn't prove they are the same ol' Browns. We'll see what they do in 2021. The other reason it doesn't bother me is I love what the Bills are doing so the Browns may get better, but they are still looking up at the Bills. Maybe they beat us. But until they do, I'm content with how McD & Beane are playing their cards.

Maybe some years, and most years I'd agree with you, but what's the point of trading down for more 2021 picks when it's going to be hard for rookies to make this roster as it is, especially if you see a guy you have a high 1st round tag on. This would seem the exact year, where if we saw say Jaycee Horn or JOK or Caleb Farley dropping--and we thought this could potentially give us two shutdown corners for 4-5 years (or in the case of JOK, a defensive game-changer--if you think he is)--you go up and grab the player you think could be a near-definite impact player within a year or two. I'm not against trading down for picks, but I'd want them to be picks for 2022 or beyond, either for the positive contingency that Oliver, Edmunds, and let's say Epenesa or Ford earn second contracts alongside Allen and the cap raise is not as much as expected or to keep building capital for that year when you see a guy falling that you are sure is the next Watt.

Let's check in next year on this. Many experts coaches and players disagree with you on this. Pro Bowl may be overrated, but it's usually that players get in on reputation, but in this case, what reputation? Maybe they're seeing something you don't. He was the captain and middle linebacker on a Top 3 defense just two years ago. Maybe we should take into account that last year was a very weird season plus he was playing hurt for most of it. Also, dude was playing with one arm yet people here were calling him soft.

If you're signing a depth guy who had 63 tackles in the final 6 games last year for what would likely be a vet min contract, HOW IS THAT BAD?!?!?!

If we're following that same logic (Diggs & Jefferson), Hunter will have 20 sacks and help get us to the Super Bowl.

You're overestimating it by counting the 1st rounds they traded away. When you move places in the draft or use a draft pick to get another draft pick, you can't count the draft pick you gave away. It's a good trade, but (1) we don't need to make it more than it actually was and (2) until they prove they can pick correctly and hold on to their 1st rounders it doesn't worry me that much. Besides, it doesn't change the fact that the Bills are now a very good team. . Here's the math from a Miami Dolphins page on SI today trying to paint it in the best possible light. "So, boiling it down, you could say that — excluding the other players and later-round picks — the Dolphins essentially traded Tunsil for a 2020 first-round pick, the sixth overall pick in 2021, a second-round pick in 2021, a third-round pick in 2022, and a first-round pick in 2023." https://www.si.com/nfl/dolphins/news/miami-dolphins-continue-to-benefit-from-laremy-tunsil-trade