JESSEFEFFER

In 2016, Cam Newton's 5th NFL year, arguably his worst, he had numbers that are very comparable to Josh's rookie numbers. I don't know why I can't copy/paste here without it coming out a mess but that's a different problem. Similar completion %, Y/A and W/L%. Cam threw more often but with both focused on attempts further down the field. Josh has run more often and more successfully. What does this mean? If Cam had kept that up, he'd have been replaced by now. If Josh doesn't improve he'll be replaced as well. My expectations are based on the belief that human beings are rarely great at their jobs the first year in. They either have the capacity to get better or do not. They either improve in important, quantifiable ways or fail. Imo, Josh has that capacity in terms of physical ability, competitiveness and attitude. The Bills need to take care of the peripherals but I see a guy with every bit of the talent needed in all the meaningful areas. But then again, I really detest timid, gutless QB play and may be too eager to be high on the future of a physically gifted 22 year old QB who is neither timid or gutless.

I also remember, often a flawed endeavor, a crucial intentional grounding call on JK for throwing the ball out the back of the endzone. You don't see that call made very often in any era. The instructional phrase "throw to the cheap seats" is incompatible with a potential penalty. Well, I just did a search on this and could not find a clip or reference to it, so maybe it is flawed in this case.

He started with the USFL and then Tampa Bay.

I am ok with what he has done. His athleticism stands out amongst NFL talent which is not a small thing. His accuracy looks good when the ball is out on time and thrown in rhythm. He can extend plays better than most but the accuracy seems to suffer the more off script the play becomes but the coverage can breakdown and big plays come too. He is far more than a "parody of an NFL prospect" as someone said. Some of his turnovers are really bad but often follow his having done something extraordinary like dragging Melvin Ingram for 15 ft. You can't expect him to know what he can or can't get away with until he tries and fails. It's all about how much he can grow his game but that is true of any rookie QB.

Doug Marrone pulled the plug on a 2/2 2nd year QB who had just been terrorized by JJ Watt in a game that could still have been win at the end in favor of Kyle Orton who had no upside and really offered no added production, imo. Marrone planned to use that season and his out clause to leverage the new ownership into increased organizational power and he did not want the plan scuttled by the up and down play of a QB with less than 15 career starts. He preferred the certainty of the so-so play of a veteran QB who was a finished product and had been there and done that.

I get the point-of-view as it is sort of mine as well. I hope we hear the Shout song lots as my son views it as a highlight of attending. Instead of special teams meltdowns, how about some obvious, egregious blown calls. We all like to rip the officials anyways and it absolves the coaches and players of goat status.

I am with you on your thoughts towards the Foster threads. These route breakdowns were excellent and showed how the Bills' offense is evolving and really putting pressure on the coverage, especially the saftey in "single high." I feel like I learned something here and can't say that too often about the content I view here. Man there is space open all over the field. They should show this film to a prospective FA TE and ask if he thinks he can exploit that coverage.

Clay probably could not track that ball as it was a bullet on a low trajectory and he has just cleared the defender and the ball is almost there. Face it, having an arm like that means that Josh can beat the defense anywhere on the field but also means his intended targets get less time to track and adjust to the ball and will have more difficulty actually catching it. Learning when it's not necessary to drill the ball to the target and instead it's better to lead the receiver into an open area with a touch pass that is easy to track and lands softly is a lesson that experience will teach. I thought our receiving corps looked much better when catching Matt Barkley's soft tosses, for instance. Also, we as fans tend to ignore a play the DB makes on the ball. If a DB gets a pbu on a play, we shouldn't view it as a "drop." Since we want the ball caught regardless of the circumstances, it tends to get recorded in our collective memories as another "*^%&$^%# dropped ball instead of "credit to the defender."

I walked into Vic's barber shop in Stallings, NC a few years ago and there was a poster of the Electric Company on the wall. Turns out Joe D lives near there and used the same barber.

Supposedly this is true only of the NFL's passer rating formula. Supposedly, ESPN's Total QBR looks at every play in its comparable context and has some regard for clutch play. Maybe it's the result of a meaningless fumble on a 4th down play that did not gain enough for a first down, one bad sack (really poor block by Mills, I think Josh was rolling to avoid A but got sacked blindside by B who Mills didn't even slow down) and an almost interception? I suppose those were his three worst plays.

I don't believe that for 3 reasons. 1) The predraft belief that Whaley would be gone after the draft and he was only still there because he and his staff had done all the prep for it and he was the one with connections to other draftrooms. 2) The widely held narrative that McDermottt was calling the shots. and 3) That it is usually up a newly hired GM to take the shot at a new franchise QB not the lame duck GM that failed on his attempts.

Fans generally felt good about this game. No need to look for the glass half full analysis to cheer us up. Some claimed to like it more than the previous 3 (which TQBR really liked. ) I just find it odd that Stafford was considered better by such a wide margin and, umm, the Lions lost.

Those two numbers in context say that Matt Stafford had a much more positive effect on the Lions behalf than Josh did for the Bills. That's a statement that is unsupported by the game I watched.

The passer rating formula has some huge flaws in that it does not account for the effect of QB run plays, sacks/ lost yardage and fumbles lost. Basically everything a QB does when the ball doesn't leave his hand. All of these are plays that can have a huge effect on the outcome of a game. Enter Total QBR. Anything that attempts to quantify a QB's production in all situations should be better in my mind and I generally would think favorably of such an approach. Most of us saw yesterday's game, it's safe to assume. I have heard some comment about how much they liked how Josh played as it was more of a conventionally played game from the pocket with few obvious mistakes and a number of impressive throws. He took one sack, had an inconsequential fumble on an unsuccessful 4th attempt and made some big plays to help win the game. Here's the thing. His total QBR was 19.6, #27 on the week. What's an even bigger head scratcher is Matt Stafford was rated #2 at 81.5. That's not the same game I sat and watched from section 228. This could be exhibit A for those of you who have been saying that QBR is a bunch of crap and you now have my attention.

I was at Tavern on the Tracks in Charlotte, NC with my wife as were there for a potential relocation visit. I doubt there is a better Bills Backer Bar anywhere else in the USA.

That run reminds me of Alan Alda's portrayal of George Plimpton's TD in the movie Paper Lion. Classic.

This idea has kicked around awhile and I say I'm keen on it. Think how many times Gentry caught an Allen throw in their time together. His hands are probably trained to do it. He is used to the power and he probably knows not to quit on his routes and where to be on a scramble. Get him on the active roster and see if there is any chemistry there to exploit at this level. Logically there must be something there to justify the experiment. Gentry is 6'2' 200+ so he is not small.

Anthony Barr and now Kiko. Josh Allen is the cause of much LB film room embarrassment.

With all due respect, we have no idea what the actual play call was. What Josh managed to turn it into was way off script but damn close to a win on a totally busted coverage.

A baseball analogy I see is when a slugger takes a big swing but makes contact with the ball outside the sweet spot. Based on the launch angle the outfielder may tend to stay deep or even drift toward the fence but then realize it was mishit and then suddenly try to reverse direction toward the ball. It's tough to overcome the misread and the false steps. The Bills receiving corp has probably learned to get and stay deep on his broken play throws because Josh Allen has a uniquely powerful arm. That flutter ball which traveled 50 to 55 yards was tough to read and react to. Blame shared equally, imo.

Ever hear of Pythagoras?

All were on punts and not KRs so were they muffs or actual fumbles? I do not think the website I found was making a distinction. A poor punt catcher or poor ball security under tackle?

I can objectively say this with the caveat that I have not paid too much attention to Cam Newton's highlights: Josh Allen in his brief NFL career has shown on multiple occasions physical traits that I have never seen before. The Dive, The Hurdle and The Stiff Arm against Anthony Barr (and the one on Yannick Ngakoue.) I said in another thread that Josh has the wingspan of a condor and could stiff arm a T-Rex to the dirt. Even that int he threw against the Chargers where he dragged Ingram for 15 ft. and still made a decent, though ill advised throw was something of a wow play. Can't say that I have ever seen an NFL QB throw an interception quite like that before. Consider that leaping over the los with ball extended for a TD against the Vikings. That was done so easily and quickly that the defense had no chance to react. Usually there is a risk to expose the ball like that. Not so for him. Maybe we should sticky a thread full of videos of these type plays. We may be seeing many, many plays like these over his career and will need a library of them for future reference.

The Jags defenders were like synchronized divers.

My brother mentioned this to me last Sunday. I hadn't bothered to read up on him and this is very concerning to me. Three of those six were lost, they were all on just 21 punt returns and I'd be interested to know how many were actually muffed. Catching punts at New Era Field is about as tough as it gets. Just about every return I see a Bill make, I repeat out loud "Hold on to the ball, hold on to the ball, hold on to the ball......" until the play is over. Now I know why McDermott said he was concerned about the play that was ruled a fumble but easily overturned. He likely knows the history and wants this kid to demonstrate that it's no longer an issue.