Thurman#1

DVOA doesn't tell you that much over shorter periods of time. Four games is too short. This doesn't mean they are the worst, it means they haven't been playing very well. Which is hard to argue with.

Home games at home in cold weather were manna from heaven for those teams. We could take it and the cold weather teams really couldn't. Kelly had no trouble playing in cold weather. Those were advantages. Disagree. I don't think there's been much of an anti-Buffalo fan bias beyond the hate that successful teams (see the Pats) always get.

A late bye is helpful. Means you're fresher going into the playoffs. That's a plus, I think. I was happy when I saw that.

It does tell you all you need to know. It tells you that a flag is a possibility and that it's worth eliminating that possibility for an audience that can't see any part of the field beyond the small bit where the camera is focused, usually on one guy holding a ball.

Dreading is probably too strong. Worried about? Yeah. Why wouldn't anyone? I have since I became a fan decades ago. It's part of the game.

I think you're being oversensitive to the most depressive folks on here. We have a good chance. So do they. With Burrow healthy they're a damn good team. If it were in Buffalo we'd be favored by a point. It's just that in the last few games the Bills aren't playing their best ball, and the Bengals are playing theirs.

Yup. Translation: I don't like him.

Not real likely, IMO. It's more complicated than having a general idea of the scheme. I'd expect some snaps for two, maybe even three, but not a ton, myself. We'll see.

We really don't have to win now. Not that I'd be against winning now, of course. But it's not like if it doesn't happen now it won't happen. There are some older guys who don't have much longer to go, such as Latavius Murray, Poyer and Hyde, Sam Martin, AJ Klein, and Von Miller as well, and now Linval Joseph. Those guys won't be with us all that much longer, and when we lose them, Poyer and Hyde would seem to be the biggest losses, and they can be replaced with McD's scheme and ability to coach up a D-backfield. Von would be a huge loss if he ever recovers to earlier levels. I hope he does, but this d-line is playing well even without that. What you don't want to be is old and bad. We're not. Could be a nose issue. I saw crappy tackling and play, but no fear. They looked more anesthetized than fearful. Again, Cincy is a very good team, especially when Burrow is playing well. Not especially physically terrifying, though.

It's deniable. I'm denying it here. Were they beaten physically? Yeah, they were. Not buying the intimidated thing, though. The Bills at the time said they just didn't have the energy, the juice. That's what it looked like to me, a team that was emotionally exhausted. I didn't see a bit of intimidation there, myself. I think they played tougher more physical teams last year without being intimidated, the Titans, the Ravens, ... . Why would the Bengals be special? They're a good team but no more physically intimidating than most others in the league.

In the sense that anyone receiving a salary is one, and especially getting paid to guess likely sports outcomes, then yeah, I guess so. He doesn't pretend he's seen the guy in person. He hears what's publicly available about the guy and uses professional knowledge to produce an informed guess, a guess that's more informed than that of anyone else who doesn't have first-hand knowledge of the specifics of the case. Nothing wrong with what he does. The medical info is indeed protected. He's not unprotecting it in any way. Nor could he since he doesn't have access. I don't see it as any problem. Probably a million people guess at these outcomes, including some in this thread. He only guesses with much more direct experience in similar situations.

If we did that, we'd be getting a coach who would have won a championship with Allen if he were younger. And giving up a coach who stands a very good chance of winning one as he moves forward. We shouldn't consider it, nor will we. If I'm Kraft, I send Belichick to Washington. Not if he were younger, but now? Yeah.

Our #2 receiver has 50 yards less and 2 TDs more than DaVonte, Philly's #2 receiver. Gabe also has 140 more yards and four more TDs than Deebo, SF's #2. If those two teams have a really good WR2 as you say, then our 2 is producing right with them or out-producing them. Beane and McD have more to prove. So do the GM/coaches of both those teams, who with Roseman as the exception, have also not GM'd and head-coached their way to Super Bowl victories. And Roseman's SB win came in his 8th year as GM. Our guys still have a couple of years to catch up. No reason to think Beane and McD aren't great. Very very few teams have had as much consistent high-level results the past few years as we have. And it's nonsense that if you want to have a good DL you "have to develop at least some of your own reserve DLs." No, you don't. That is one of several ways to be successful. If you want to have a really good DL and be DL-centric, what you have to do is have a really good DL and be DL-centric. How you do it doesn't matter. There's no requirement that it has to be done the Badol way. It just has to get done. You cite the 9ers. Where are all the DLs they drafted lower and developed? Their top 8 are Chase Young, Arik Armstead, Javon Hargrove, Nick Bosa, Clelin Ferrell, Kevin Givens, Javon Kinlaw and Randy Gregory. The only one of those guys who they didn't draft in the top two rounds or acquire from other teams is Kevin Givens, a lower-level platoon guy. Is he any better than Harrison Phillips, who the Bills drafted late and developed?

A good week, yes. Fournette an upgrade to Murray, not so much, IMO. He'll be a very good depth guy with occasional use, I think. A solid pickup without much downside. Love Rasul and Linval and think they're great moves.

Yeah, freeing up the backers is the huge part of this. He used to be considered the strongest guy in the league. A bit older now. Seems like a really good move, and I look forward to seeing how that works out. Never been a pass rusher like DaQuan was, and I don't see that starting now.

Good point. Milano's never been outgoing.

There's word that DaQuan could be back, at least for the playoffs. "I'm gonna trust our friend Kyle Trimble, who talked about the potential to come back, and tweets directly from the man himself, DaQuan Jones. I trust that DaQuan Jones is going to be back for the playoffs and ready to play. There are multiple examples of 1-tech big defensive tackles having these type of strains being able to come back in the time frame to be there." 24:30 (And Tompsett had Rasul as a close second-best choice at CB, so he knew whereof he spoke.) Haven't heard the same for Milano. Generally, a lack of moves can just as easily mean a lack of trade options that make sense to us, though.

Collinsworth is excellent. Why wouldn't you say a lot of good things about Mahomes?

Why would anyone think Shakir, a 5th rounder who's still early in his second year, is at his ceiling? It's possible. But it's more likely he's got plenty space left before he reaches his ceiling.

Knox's contract is for $13M a year, not $17M. And that's a big deal, the difference between Knox being the 9th highest paid TE in terms of AAV at $13M, vs. the #1 highest, Waller at $17M. I also think last game showed that 11 personnel is the way to go ... against some teams, and at some times. I think there will be plenty of room for 12 personnel going forward after Knox is healthy. But fair enough that it may happen less than they appear to have planned. The Bucs are mostly a man-to-man team. Things might look very different against different defenses.

The headline is actually "How Ken Dorsey Got Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills Offense on Track & Defensive Standouts". Trust you to totally change change the emphasis to your own obsession. He certainly did like what Allen did, no question. And for good reason. But he complimented the whole team, in depth. He asks how the Bills found the rhythm and gets into what Dorsey did and what changes they made that was what Marino started with. Mentions more tempo, more 11 personnel making it more into a space game, at least against this opponent. Mentioned going back to a lot of their core concepts. I don't think he even mentioned Allen through the first 6:30, and that was just one sentence. Allen wasn't mentioned again in the first ten minutes. Second mention was around 10:10, and it was again just a sentence. The headline here was the changes the Bills made to make the offense go better. "He just got back to basics: tempo, spread, 11 personnel, mesh, tackle wraps, RPOs, play action, and that allowed Josh Allen to play really good football." After that sentence, at 11:02, he gets into how well Allen played.

This!!!! At first I couldn't believe the no-call, then on the third replay I saw what happened. Good no-call. Wasnt clear at all. Half the motion was him trying just to grab the helmet, and whoever was giving the impetus at that point, it was a very soft swing with little impact.

IMO it would be a pretty reasonable prediction if you change "best" to top 3 or 4.

Um, yeah, it's very true that we don't really know where guys were for sure or where they would have been drafted. But there's no particular reason to think Elam would have fallen far. He was #29 on PFF's big board. TheAthletic do a consensus Big Board each year combining the Big Boards of 82 top evaluators, which generally does better than nearly all individual experts. https://theathletic.com/3262402/2022/04/26/nfl-draft-consensus-big-board/ Elam was listed 30th. This doesn't prove he wouldn't have made it into the 3rd round. It does make it as likely as it could be that he would not have.

This. It ain't written yet. He could still be really good in Buffalo. Or not. Remember last year and last off-season, when Bernard was a massive miss? And when Epenesa was a bust. Anyone with any kind of memory for the overstatements, oversimplifications and early conclusions on here could go on and on and on. And on. Makes you more likely to be wrong. That's the reason. I see the wink, but ...