Thurman#1

So, where are you getting those stats? I'd love to see week by week data. In any case, there are many causes. It's not one thing, it's many working together. But a lot of it is that Josh has a bit harder time with short throws than with longer ones, and that he sometimes puts mustard on balls that are short, making it really hard to handle. And mustard from Josh is hotter than just about any other in the league. More short throws under Brady than under Dorsey. That's not all, though. Receivers certainly have a part in it. Oh, and take a look at your math. It's a small difference, but 21 drops in 229 passes is 9.17%. I assume you meant in-season drops, right? That's 229 attempts. If you were including the playoffs, it would be 69 more throws. So, not 10.1%. Instead 9.17%. Not that that's a great figure either, but correct figures are more useful in understanding the world.

I'd add in DT. Right now DT looks like Ed Oliver, Kameron Cline and Eli Ankou next year.

The Atlantic? I didn't know they did sports reporting I don't think that's a given. Certainly very possible, though. If his stats hadn't dropped this year, probably. But I think there is a much wider range of possible outcomes here than people are predicting. The question is how much of his statistical and productive drop is on him in not getting open and how much on the offense for using him as a clear-out guy, a blocker or a 3rd or 4th look on plays.

Yup. But it's also four 1sts and two 2nds in two years total. It's more that they accumulated great picks than that they beat the odds on how the picks performed. Hutchinson and Williams appear to be future mainstays, though at #2 and #8, it's not a big surprise.

True, but considering LaPorta had 918 snaps and Kincaid 699, their production is closer than it first appears.

You're a lot likelier to get a great draft haul when your first four picks are #12, #18, #34 and #45 as the Lions did. The Lions fourth pick was #45. The Bills are likely to have only one pick that high this year. Their second pick will be #60. And their fourth pick (since they traded away their 3rd rounder for Rasul Douglas, but will likely get a 3rd round comp pick for losing Tremaine Edmunds) will likely be #128 or very close depending on how many comp picks are given out in the 3rd. #128 is a lot less likely to get you a starter for your 4th round pick than #45 as the Lions had. To sum up, the Lions first four picks last year were #12, #18, #34 and #45. The Bills first four picks this year are #28, #60, about #99 and about #128. The Lions did a great job acquiring picks. I wish the Bills would start one of those conveyor belts of picks like the Pats used to use, where they'd trade a 4th rounder for next year's 3rd, then the next year trade that one for a next year's 2nd and so on. That will start getting you better chances at better players.

Some at ESPN hated him. Others loved him. Kiper loved him. Yes, his traits were elite. Everyone knew that. Know who else had elite traits? JaMarcus Russell. Traits aren't everything. They absolutely are something. A very real part of what makes a great QB. But they aren't the final word by any measure. There were real concerns with Josh for people who weren't thinking he'd succeed. His completion percentage was a real red flag, a legitimate cause for worry. Most QBs with low completion percentages in college don't succeed in raising that percentage much. But a few have, as I pointed out over and over. Kiper among others thought he could improve it. This wasn't all about the experts. It was plenty about people, including ordinary fans, believing that red flag was a picture of the future.

I thought all four of the top guys had a good chance to be very successful. But I had wrong Josh here as my third preference, and Allen as my fourth. That didn't work out quite so well, looking back. But plenty argued with me that Allen had no shot. I argued he really did. At least I was right on that. Many people absolutely hated the Allen choice. Many didn't, but many did.

There's a massive incentive not to fix any games too. Fixing things would blow fan buy-in. Taylor could make them a few hundred million, the article argues. Fair games will make them tens of billions and over the years hundreds of billions. Hmm. Which should drive their behavior? Hard to figure.

If you're going to be that kind on the Chiefs, you have to be just as kind to the Bills, who can claim Allen, Diggs (not this year but that could easily be a result of injury, it's hard to know), Taron Johnson and Milano as among those in the mix for All Pro mentions at their positions most years.

Yes, but thing is you can make arguments like this on more than 99% of all draft picks. Until anyone figures out how to tell the future perfectly, it will always be so. The question is whether your GM has drafted well. Nobody has drafted perfectly or even at all close. Beane absolutely has drafted well.

It probably is talent. But Beane's been extremely good. A big part of that talent deficit is that though Josh is really really damn good, Mahomes is the best in the league and has a huge impact on big games. "Suboptimal"? Yeah, probably, and everyone else too. Very good, though? Yup.

Praying. Stay strong. All of my best to you and your family.

That's right. Brady never had a true #1 except maybe a year or so with Moss. And they never won a Super Bowl with Moss on the team. You don't need a true #1. You do need a capable group.

I'm assuming that what he means by a #1 is what is what is usually called a true #1. There are about 10 of those guys in the league generally. Diggs hasn't consistently performed as a true #1 this year. If by a #1 you mean a guy in the top 32 WRs in the league, he's there. He's among that group. He's been a true #1 for his time in Buffalo. But this year? Fair enough to say not this year, I think. The question is whether it's injury, age, play design, playcalling ...? Can he get it back? My guess is that he can. But the problem has to be diagnosed correctly and fixed. It's definitely not a sure thing that he will. And he doesn't have more than another year or two, maybe three as a guy with that kind of ceiling.

Yeah, something is going on. I'm not clear on what it is, but Brady's influence has to be one of the main suspects. Is Diggs getting older? Are injuries involved? Are Diggs' skills a misfit with Brady's system? Can this be fixed with adjustments to route concepts and play-calling? They've got to figure out what it is.

No, and it ain't nonsense. It's an advantage. But roughly three points. Not more.

Not for me. It was right there for them and they almost had it even with all those defensive injuries. Worse than last year. Right up there with 13 seconds.

Who is the real MVP? We'll find out soon enough. Last I knew - 6 days ago - you could get 50:1 on Allen. Bet you've already put a second mortgage on the house, hunh? Lamar? You have to bet $200 to win $1. Who is the real MVP? Almost certainly not Josh Allen. At least this year. Oh, and Baltimore wins because of defense and offense. And special teams and coaching. But the fact that their QB is terrific, and more has been more consistent this year is a major reason. Strangely, defense, offense, special teams and coaching are the reason the Bills win too, though again it helps they've got a terrific QB. But his turnover problems being a major factor in several losses did not help his MVP chances.

Oh, it's me yelling at the internet? You, you're just watching the game ... except you're not, you're yelling at me while accusing me of yelling. The difference between us being you're wrong. It doesn't say "Mahomes's number of INTs T-4". Your idea is pathetic. It says "Mahomes T-4." Meaning Mahomes tied for 4th. And he did not. Folks, these are the INT numbers Punch is talking about: David Mills 15 Dak Prescott 15 Josh Allen 14 Derek Carr 14 Kirk Cousins 14 Matt Ryan 13 Joe Burrow 12 Patrick Mahomes 12 Aaron Rodgers 12 Anyone seriously think Mahomes tied for 4th here? Exactly. He didn't. Anyone think Mahomes had the 4th highest total? When 6 guys had higher totals than Mahomes's 12? Exactly.

Yeah, see how you have to desperately twist words to attempt but fail to make your point? If two guys tie for first, you don't say the next guy finished 2nd. He didn't have the 4th highest

Nonsense. Allen's turnovers did a hell of a lot more to lose the Broncos game than the (admittedly stupid and unbelievably frustrating) 12 men on the field penalty. They lost six points directly from the two INTs. And that's ignoring the rest of his not very good game. The first INT, they were on the Broncos 28. That's 3 lost points, minimum. The second INT, the Broncos got the ball on the Bills 31 and hit a field goal. That's a six point turnaround minimum, and the Bills lost by two. The stupid 12 men penalty would never have happened, as the Broncos would have needed eight points to tie and would have been forced to go for a TD. Allen was a major factor. Even larger in the Jets game, yes. But really big in both.

You say "he said Mahomes had the 4th most interceptions in 2022 and Brady the 6th most in 2021," did he? I only watched the first three minutes or so because he was so off so many times, but I sure didn't hear him say that. Where does he say that? Can you give me the time where he says that? What I saw, at is that he said that "the last three Super Bowl-winning QBs have been in the top five in INTs," and he shows a graphic where he says that Mahomes was tied for 4th last year. Both objectively wrong.

When you are wrong time after time after time in the micro, your macro ideas can't be taken seriously. When you can't come up with logical and factual reasons to support your main idea, there's likely a problem with that main idea. And "unanimous MVP"? Sorry, man, that's just stupid. It's about as far from unanimous as you can get, as few people think so. Know what happens to guys who should be the unanimous MVP? They win the MVP.

Agree with you on what the MVP is about. 100%. But you're saying that Allen "lost" one game this year? Josh's three turnovers had a massive effect on the Broncos game. And he didn't play all that well in several of our losses. QBs don't lose games anymore than they win them, it's a team stat. But Josh was one of the main reasons for probably three to four of our losses and had bad games in a couple of wins besides. I'm sure he'd agree. He also had some terrific games, and he's played a lot better down the stretch, which is really encouraging.