Thurman#1

The clip is from 2020, back before he started dating movie stars and collecting whiskies.

They laughed.

All true and reasonable. And a lot of what you are buying when you pay an elite QB is the chance to be wildly successful without spending tons and tons on WRs. Look at Brady. Mahomes. Rodgers. There are certainly some exceptions, but when you are paying a top 6 or 7 QB, you have a lot less money to work with, and so you tend to expect your QB to be really really effective with less.

Nice idea. You'd be helping to make yourself rich. You'd be contributing a lot of money to yourself.

Inconsistency is how most receivers outside the top ten or so live. Smith-Schuster last year with Mahomes throwing to him: 79, 10, 89, 46, 33, 113, 124, 88, 33, 38, 35, 74, 88, 27, 21, 35 Christian Kirk last year: 117, 78, 72, 60, 11, 24, 96, 40, 76, 105, 46, 104, 45, 92, 22, 21, 99 DK Metcalf last year: 36, 35, 64, 149, 88, 34, 12, 55, 37, 71, 90, 127, 71, 55, 81, 3, 40 Amari Cooper last year: 17, 101, 101, 9, 76, 44, 74, 131, 94, 40, 42, 58, 72, 105, 51 Tee Higgins last year: 27, 71, 93, 124, 47, 93, 49, 60, 148, 114, 35, 33, 128, 7 Garrett Wilson last year: 52, 102, 60, 41, 27, 8, 24, 115, 92, 12, 95, 162, 78, 98, 30, 18, 89 Mike Williams 10, 113, 15, 120, 134, 17, 86, 15, 116, 67, 76, 94, 32 Courtland Sutton 72, 122, 97, 52, 74, 14, 23, 13, 66, 80, 75, 0, 64, 44, 33 This is simply how things go for WRs, most of them. Went out of my way to pick guys who had good years, better than Gabe.

No, they're not. He had the same kinds of numbers last year when we didn't have two TEs. And yeah, Diggs is often doubled, though not always. But it's not like he's the only guy in the league this happens to. Plus, we're generally getting two deep safety coverages against us. When Gabe goes deep, and he often does, he generally gets the safety drifting over the top as well. Fair enough Ds are more worried about Diggs than Davis, certainly. But that doesn't mean he's an afterthought.

Again, this is simply a dumb argument. His stats show extremely clearly that he's a #2. No, not a great #2, but it isn't even a question that he's a #2. #3 WRs don't end up in the top 20 in TDs and the top 40 in yards, they just don't. And Gabe was that high last year and is higher so far this year.

Yes, but a TD pass can be worth a ton less in terms of EPA.. Most TDs are from the red zone. And red zone TDs aren't worth all that much in terms of EPA. Not to mention that a one yard TD pass is worth zero more than a one yard TD run. TD passes are not as helpful to your team as INTs are harmful. Total passer rating (team passer rating minus your team's defensive passer rating) correlates very well with team success.

A TD is always worth six points. But the EPA of an interception depends on where on the field it happens. More, If your TD is taken away from you, by a penalty or a drop, you don't lose six points of EPA. Unless it was 4th down, you've got another chance at a slightly lower EPA. You might easily run the next down and score the six points on the ground. He's absolutely right that throwing an INT is worse for your team than throwing a TD is good. If you had run instead of throwing you might also have scored a TD.

It's flawed. Still a useful stat, though. More useful than most.

IMO you're mixing up cause and effect here. It wasn't that the reason the Bills were terrible and lost to the Jags was that they only ran 9 times and threw it 47 times. The reason the Bills lost to the Jags was that they couldn't run (22 yards on nine RB carries) and couldn't pass well (Allen's passer rating was 62.7). They sucked at both that game. They were terrible. That's why they lost. We only had 10 RB carries last year in the game we beat the Steelers 38 - 3. But in that game Allen played well, unlike his awful Jags game. Yeah, some people complain about strange things. I don't see how people talking Bills offense can complain about anything about yesterday's game. The offense was nearly as good as the defense. And that's extremely good. But again, it's been proven over and over again that you do NOT have to run a lot, or even run successfully, for play action to work. People (some of them, anyway) maybe think Dorsey should stop running, you say. Not me, but some. But does that really mean that we think he will stop running play action when it's so successful?

We need Dorsey to keep that going? What would make you think he's going to stop?

I miss "Quarter One" fractions. This is 4/17ths of the season, unfortunately. It's a small thing they took away from us with the 17th game. I don't see the "pushed around" thing as a McDermott product. They've never let people push them around, but since his Star's first two years they didn't have a 1-tech who was imposing his will in the middle the way that DaQuan is now. And while Star was very good those first two years, DaQuan is just better. He's a major part of their resurgence, and the D last year also showed this. Settle seems to be playing better also this year. The DL with DaQuan and Von last year looked terrific, but losing Von really hurt. Floyd seems to be taking up just about all of that slack. Loved McDermott's scheme agains the Fins. Great stuff. This team is extremely promising. Only sad to see Tre go down.

Good last year. Very good so far this year. Probably not. It was McDermott. But also Dorsey. No one else has scored more than 34 on them this year. And Beane. And Josh Allen. It was actually everyone.

You're certainly right about the Raiders being destroyed by massive dead cap if they did this, another reason it won't happen. I'm talking about the Bills not being able to keep him for the length of this contract. It's simply and completely prohibitive. You say they could give him a new deal, but that simply isn't realistic. He's due $35M each of those last two years. Not do-able when you count in the cap problems that would result. Davante has never struck me as a guy who'd be cool with giving his team a discount. Why would Gabe on an expiring contract have any value to a team that's not in contention, you ask? Because you get to give him a contract and maybe sign him for a new contract if you like him, that's why. In any case, I didn't suggest the deal. I just agreed that it would be a good one for the Bills IF we could completely overlook cap implications. But yes,cap implications on both sides will make this deal, and picking up Adams untenable. I'm not as down on Mac as many here. I hope he ends up sucking, as I hate the Pats that much.

"Hamlin coming back worries me about the NFL's motivation to "influence" a Bills win if its close." See, there are "everybody hates us and the NFL is against us and for our enemies" types on every forum.

You have four years of Gabe's body of work? Wow!! I call that amazing!!! Is your name Nostradamus, by any chance? The rest of us only have three years and three games this year. How did you get four years? Has Mr. Peabody given you access to the Wayback Machine? And does it work forwards as well? As for not needing this year's three game sample as a reference, yeah, that's what I would have guessed you'd say. It's what people with serious confirmation bias say. They already know. They don't need no stinking new data. They know what the future will be like. I'm quite confident that you do feel that way. Thing is, that doesn't say good things about your process. Gabe showed last year that he's a #2. With the injury, in total he was an average to slightly below average #2. Hard to say what would have happened without his injury, and without Josh's throwing arm injury as well. But with both of those injuries, that's what he was. Again, last year he was 33rd in yardage in the NFL and tied for 15th (a 9-way tie) in TDs, putting him in the top 23 in the league ... all despite being 48th in the league in terms of targets.

While he's violating a protection order? Geez, no. I wish him the best of luck. Always like him.

Continued from last year? Yup. His good performance, his production at the level of a #2, has indeed continued from last year, except that he's improved this year. Last year he was 33rd in yardage in the NFL and tied for 15th (a 9-way tie) in TDs, putting him in the top 23 in the league ... all despite being 48th in the league in terms of targets. This year so far, he's 66th in the league in targets. And despite that he's 41st in yards and tied for 6th in TDs. So yeah, he's continuing his good #2 performance from last year. And yeah, Juju ain't on the Chiefs this year. Which has zero relevance, since I was talking about last year. Irrelevant, but it is at least true, so you got that going for you, I guess.

Well, yes, it's a three-game sample. I've said at least three times in this thread that numbers for three games are not yet statistically significant. Here's one of them: Funnily, when people on here in this thread are attacking Gabe's performance this year so far, I don't see you leaping in to tell them that three games isn't enough to judge. Why is that? Strangely, it's only when good things are said about Gabe that you jump in to save the day this way. When you're talking about Gabe's performance this year, the three games are all there is. There's nothing else to talk about. People insulted his performance this year. Of course I used the three games to point out how wrong they are. Duh. As for your belief that one, "can only conclude that this will be Gabe's last year in a Bills uniform," congratulations for giving us a superb example of confirmation bias. What that there is ... is an opinion. An opinion that might possibly turn out to be true. And equally, an opinion that could easily turn out to be utterly wrong. Anyone with a clear view of the whole situation knows that we just don't know yet. It'll depend on financial demands from both sides. It'll depend on our cap situation. And it will GREATLY depend on the rest of the season. You're right when you say it's only a three-game sample. Right. You've clearly made your mind up far far too early, with too few facts. How come it's OK for you? If Gabe is awful the rest of the year they won't want him. If he's terrific, they will want him and things will come down to contract negotiations. The most likely outcome - if he doesn't get injured - is that he'll improve somewhat and perform at the level he'd likely have performed at last year if he hadn't been injured and if Josh's arm hadn't also been injured. In that case they'll likely try to get him back, but it might easily be financially prohibitive.

Controlled contract? Yup. You don't see many teams with two WRs making $25M or more. It's too much investment in the one position. You surprised me there with Adams' age. I thought he was around 28. But no. He's close to the downslope, though not there yet.

IF he could make the cap work? Davis and a 2nd? Yeah, I'd do that. But while this year the cap could work, the next three years his salary will be $16.8M, $35.6M and $35.6M. The cap won't work out.

Sorry, man, that's dopey on the face of it. He's got two TDs. How many teams have their #2 with more than 2 TDs? That would be zero. He's got 159 yards. How many teams have their #2 with more than 159 yards? Eleven. That puts us above average for #2 WR yards. He's the #2 because he's producing like a #2. This really ain't rocket science. An upgrade from Davis won't be that easy to find without paying a lot or using an early pick. Gabe is not a one-trick pony, he's a guy who is really good at the deeper routes and is absolutely excellent at scramble drill catches and solid at intermediate balls as well. He's producing like a #2. Getting a better #2 would be a slight upgrade, not all that big of one. As for the guys we brought in ... dude, it's been THREE GAMES!!!! Give it a bit of time. We might find them disappointing but it's way too early to say at this point.

It's not that he's content with a 2 and a 1 catch game. It's that everyone - except apparently you - understands that 2 and 1 catch games happen sometimes in the NFL, particularly for guys who aren't their team's number one option at WR. JuJu Smith Schuster had three last year and he WAS their number one option in KC. Valdez-Scantling was their #2 in KC and last year he had 8 games with 2 receptions or less, and he has two so far this year, but less than half of Gabe's yards, and zero TDs to Gabe's two. How come you're only talking about receptions and ignoring yards and TDs and .... ... Oh. That's why. Ignore the positive and stress the negative, hunh? Gotcha. But even if you ignore it, Gabe is still kicking butt in TDs and doing very well in yards.

Sorry, dude, but again, saying Davis is a #3 is just dumb. It says far more about you and your preconceptions than it does about Davis. #3s produce like #3s. That's how you know they're #3s. #2 like Davis produce like #2s. That's what he did last year and he's well on his way this year to significant improvement. The Bills pass catchers look plenty good. They spent far more resources on TE this year than they did on WRs, and that shows but there's nothing wrong with it. It looks like it will give defenses plenty more good options to deal with. They produced enough to win every game this year, and it would have amounted to more if Allen hadn't had the horrible decisions against the Jets that lost us that game. An upgrade, at a reasonable level of compensation, is never a bad thing. They don't need it, but it wouldn't hurt. It wouldn't hurt anywhere on the team, really, Most needed are probably OL and tackle in particular and replacing the older guys at safety as we move forward.