Thurman#1

https://content.production.cdn.art19.com/validation=1585312191,9fd3d284-bd25-538e-855e-ab5459654623,6Se1ft1wbu5ij5ktesolmXHGNvw/episodes/5027e7a3-78ad-47d5-a8fa-d8ec7ff78633/7e8a6bb14238cf26c14c8f2ad1e33df13b6463bbbfee5b070e469bf72ecc355ef42c9c8e525ed3cad743dc24f99aa1be98bc35a95e955a9f8e746491f0e8f678/Unbuttoned EP 136 200319.mp3 This is the audio, if you want to watch video, go here and click on the right on episode #136: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLXEMPXZ3PY1iv0O0hBfcQiFIPSvndirCZ It's his March 20th episode and he talks about his top five biggest winners (plus an honorable mention) in free agency. I searched for Simms' name and didn't find this. If I missed something, feel free to merge. The Bills make it.The countdown starts at about 20:45. He talks about Diggs but also about the smaller moves. EDIT: Sorry for screwing up the link. I corrected it. Thanks for letting me know.

You're missing the point. It doesn't matter whether there are 10 defensive ends or offensive tackles out there or one each or 47 each. Ranking guys against their own position group doesn't matter. It doesn't matter whether at #54 you get the best at a given position, the 8th best or the leventy-seventh best. What matters is only how good he is compared to everybody. If he's still available and he's the 40th best player in the draft, the BPA, terrific, grab him. That guy might be the 12th best WR this year, or the 2nd best TE, but that doesn't matter, not even a slight tiny bit. "Which position do you feed with your top remaining draft pick," you ask? Dude, here's the answer ... wait for it ... whichever position the BPA plays. Nobody's pure BPA, including Beane, they won't be picking a QB in the second this year, but they also won't pick a guy because he's the best available RB, they simply won't do this, nor should they. This is my opinion, but that's entirely beside the point ... the point is that that's how our GM rolls, thank goodness, because it's the smart way to go. Over the past three years he's said it dozens of times in different ways, again and again, and thank goodness he gets this, because it's how the best teams work. Here's one, but again, there are dozens: “When we get to draft day we’re not going to reach. We’re not. I have seen that and it rarely works when you reach,” he said. “I’ve seen where decisions were made and it’s decided that a team will not come out of the draft without ‘X’ position filled. I have a lot of examples in my head right now that happened. “Most teams say they won’t reach. I’ve told my guys to hold me accountable. If they see me starting to reach somewhere that doesn’t match our value I’ve told them to grab me. “We can’t just go say, ‘Hey I’m going to take this guy in the first and this guy in the second and now we’ve checked those boxes.’ We have to draft best player available.” https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/04/13/bills-g-m-brandon-beane-we-have-to-draft-best-player-available/

IMO it's less a matter of missing pieces than it is that development is needed and the pieces have to come together. IMO there's very little chance of the Ngakoue move or anything like it, and it's not really needed anyway. Yeah, certainly a great rusher would help us. But they schemed a rush last year and managed with solid guys and the defense was plenty good enough. McDermott has made a superior whole of defensive pieces that shouldn't have added up to anywhere near as good. I expect 'em to maybe try to draft and develop a rusher. This is a team that is more than the sum of it's parts. I don't think "a few parts missing" is the right perspective. More how well will Allen play and will the team come together enough, particularly on offense.

It's a tough year to be an FA WR. There are a ton of excellent draft WR prospects.

If an RB has a significant fall and is easily the best player on the board, yeah, I'd guess they would make the pick in that case. For ex, if they have JK Dobbins ranked in the 30s and he falls to #54 as talked about in the "Mock with Dobbins" thread, yeah, that would make sense. Oh, but whether you're getting the eighth-best at one position or the absolute best at another has no relevance or importance. What matters is whether another guy available at the time, whatever position he plays, is likely to become a better player. There's a reason they say BPA rather than BPAATP (Best Player Available At That Position, my awkward little acronym for what you're talking about here). In fact, a GM saying he goes BPA strategy - as Beane does - is pretty much saying that BPAATP isn't a factor in how he'll choose. This year is a good year for WRs and a bad year for TEs, they say. GMs, though, won't be saying, yeah, we have this TE as the 55th best player but the 3rd best TE, and this receiver as the 40th best player, but only the ninth-best WR, so let's grab the TE 'cause he's the third-best TE this year. It doesn't matter how a guy ranks in this draft at his position, except that guys at a position that's rich might fall and become the BPA. RB at #54 remains unlikely IMO. As you say though, we'll see.

We have our #1 RB going forward. They don't need to spend a #2 on RB. Doesn't make much sense to pay someone more to be a backup/injury insurance. They've noticed that you can get a starter level RB later in the draft than you can most other positions. It's certainly not impossible, but not likely. Also, your statement that "there are a number of players who can play edge at a high level" is questionable. People are always looking for good edge talent, as you can find plenty of replacement-level talent but not much in the way of guys who can pressure the QB. Teams are always looking and rarely finding. In the list of positions at which there are a number of guys who can play at a high level, RB is far higher than edge.

That's what I immediately thought of.

Worthwhile question. IMO, if they continue doing everything else as well as they have so far, yeah, I'd say they should be here a long time.

I don't think it's necessary to parse this, myself. I'd say something like ... improve significantly and improve more as the season goes along. Be among the top half of all starters in 2020 and hopefully even a bit higher than that.

You're referring to Thurman Thomas, yes? Thurman was indeed great at what you say there. But he was also very good at pass blocking.

We have no depth at RB has some truth. We could certainly use another. From there to we will draft my guy in the 2nd is a rather desperate stab. Certainly possible. I deeply doubt it myself, though I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see them draft someone a bit later.

Using the Jimmy Johnson trade value chart, that's 240 points of difference, going up from 54 to 31, and that's equivalent to a 3rd round pick. I seriously doubt when they already don't have a 1st that they then give up their third as well, leaving themselves with only one pick in the top 100.

GamePass (or international GamePass for me) has a mode called "Game in 40' ". So you can watch all the offensive plays in around 20 mins. It's too disorienting for me, personally. I never use it. Too little time between plays.

Not sure I buy that rumor, but if you love Burrow and you don't believe in Tagovailoa and you aren't getting Burrow for less, it might be a good idea. Not sure all those ifs are reasonable, but it's interesting anyway. Especially since they have three 1sts this year it's more reasonable. Make that trade and you then will have a first next year to start putting talent around your guy.

If Pennington hadn't been injured, we'd have been speaking of him in hushed tones. The guy was terrific. Look up his 2002 season and compare it to other QBs that year. Tore his rotator cuff twice, though, and was never again able to throw the ball with enough zip to be more than fairly effective. From a "What if Pennington had never gotten hurt" article: "The numbers partially describe how great Pennington was before he got hurt. Before that fateful game in Buffalo, he had completed 65.7% of passes in his career. He had 49 touchdowns against 22 interceptions. He had a 94.7 rating. And his team had won 19 of his 30 starts. He was averaging 7.3 yards per attempt in a span where that put you in the top five in the league. When Pennington got hurt in 2004, he was completing 68.2% of his passes with 8 touchdowns, 2 interceptions, and a 99.1 rating. The Jets were 6-1 at the time. The numbers do not tell the whole story, however. It wasn't just about them. "Everybody remembers how the Patriots won three of four Super Bowls from 2001 to 2004. Not many remember what happened the one year in that stretch when they did not go all the way. The Jets came to Foxborough Week 16. The Pats, Jets, and Dolphins were in a tight race for the AFC East title. A Patriots win would have eliminated the Jets and left New England in control of its own destiny. A Jets win kept Gang Green alive and put New England in deep trouble. "Pennington lit up Bill Belichick's defense that night to the tune of 22 for 33 for 286 yards, 3 touchdowns, and no interceptions. Tom Brady was 19 for 37 with 133 yards, 1 touchdown, and 1 interception. In the middle of the Patriots dynasty, Pennington went up to Foxborough in a huge spot, outplayed Brady, and carried the Jets to a win. The next week, Pennington threw 4 touchdown passes as the Jets routed a Brett Favre led Packers team playing for the top seed in the NFC 42-17. This won the AFC East for the Jets. In the first round of the Playoffs, Pennington hit 19 of 25 for 222 yards and 3 more touchdowns as the Jets blew out Peyton Manning's Colts 41-0 before the dream season ended the next week in Oakland. "When Pennington returned from his first injury in 2004, he took the Jets on the road in the first round and hit 22 of 33 for 279 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Jets registered an overtime upset win against the Chargers. A week later against the Steelers, Pennington and the Jets took over the ball on their own 24 with the game tied 17-17 and 6:00 to go. The crowd in Pittsburgh was going nuts. Facing the number one defense in the NFL and a 15-1 team, Pennington hit passes for 22 and 17 yards to get the Jets into field goal range. Doug Brien missed the kick and then another as the Jets lost in overtime. "Far from being the limited guy with a ceiling, Pennington was a top statistical quarterback building a clutch big game resume. He looked like a guy headed for greatness." https://www.ganggreennation.com/2013/3/27/4154264/new-york-jets-what-if-wednesday-what-if-chad-pennington-hadnt-gotten Feel free to disagree, it's a fan article, but there really is very good reason to believe Pennington would have been exceptional if not injured. I've always felt this way, but until this article, I hadn't remembered that even after the second operation he was second in league MVP voting in 2008 in Miami. I knew that was a good year but I didn't remember it was that good. He was going to be a player if the rotator cuff hadn't gone.

Many. All should. It's far from the be-all and end-all but it's important. It's also still a bit early in the life cycle of this team to get them. In the 3rd and 4th years of Belichick's reign in NE, they got no comp picks. Whereas in year 5 when he was mostly dealing with his own players, he got a 3rd, a 5th and a 7th. And Belchick values comp picks very highly indeed, as do the Ravens, the Steelers, Packers, etc. And as pointed out above, they're even more valuable now that they're tradeable.

Don't see any LT problem, really. He's not terrific, but he's good. Other than that, concerned? Yeah, sure. Until the season starts, everybody should be concerned about their team. Injuries, regression, stuff happens. Not terribly concerned, though, and certainly not so early in the offseason.

Yup, and I'd argue you should replace "decent" with "good."

If you call that dissing Rosen, you'd have to say that he also dissed the Miami Dolphins. When the interviewer said Brady was available, Ross said he didn't think Brady would be interested in coming to the Dolphins as they weren't good enough now. It sure wasn't a vote of confidence, but probably 25 or 26 teams wish their QB was better, though not all the owners would say it publicly.

"... often looked like a jail break" is a huge exaggeration. Yeah, there was definitely room for improvement. But they were above average last year, IMO, though only slightly so. They looked to me like a group that improved as the year went along and they got some continuity together, a group that needed a spot improvement or two rather than wholesale improvements. I expect another move or two before the season start but maybe none of those producing a starter. And they weren't five guys last year, more like four and a platoon at RT. Still plenty of time for some changes at LT in terms of one or both getting better and taking over or them bringing somebody else in.

No. Minshew didn't go 6-6. That was the Jacksonville Jaguars team ... in games started by Minshew. I mean, if someone wants to pretend that whether or not a defense plays well or a field goal kicker missing or making a kick is caused by a QB, they should feel free, but pretending is what is happening. The official name of that stat isn't "QB Record." It's "Team Record in Games Started By This QB (Regular Season)". And there's a reason for that. Way way way too many other variables than QB performance. You judge a QB by how well the QB plays. Not by how well the defensive line plays or whether the running back fumbles. I like Minshew and it's very reasonable to say that he played worse than Foles, but an awful lot of that was because Foles was awful.

... which makes it hard for defenses to predict what you'll do well and what you'll do poorly, which is often an advantage for young QBs when they first play. That did come into play here, as shown by the fact that his passer rating for the season was 91.2, and that in his first five games he exceeded that three times (60% of the time), whereas in his remaining nine games, he only exceeded it three times, 30% of the time. Minshew went downhill. Whereas it was the opposite for Josh. After the NE game in week 4 (exceeded his average passer rating one time in those four games), he was much better the rest of the year, exceeding his average in seven out of twelve games). He improved in nearly every way, measureable and non-measureable, after those first four games.

Yeah, I could see him. Funchess, maybe. Beasley or Quinn, maybe at DE. They'll have a salary ceiling for people and we'll see a bunch of guys they'd have wanted get signed for more money than the Bills want to pay, IMO. Van Noy? I'm really looking forward to this.

Oh, I thought it was a top 100 draft. In the top 32, it's not a surprise that Lawson and Phillips don't make that, IMO. Thanks for posting it. Fun read.

People thought that last year before we drafted Ford. You're right that we can roll with that, but will we? Anyway, I like the signing.