Thurman#1

That's what you want a guy to say. You want him saying "We weren't ready, it's our fault." Realistically, though, their roster isn't what it used to be, particularly at QB and LB (though a lot of that was injuries) and OL. No, I don't think it's damning and I don't think it's Tomlin.

You're right, not all extra info is good. But there's plenty that's absolutely crucial, and if you're not on the teams, you don't have access to it. They've got P.I.'s asking the local bartenders about these guys, the high picks anyway. We don't have access to the medicals, which are extremely important. We don't see whether the players don't get along with the coaches in the interviews, we don't see how well they respond to the chalk talk questions. And while education and in particular experience don't guarantee good decisions, everything equal you want the experienced guy making the decision. Do I want an NFL scout of twenty years experience making the call on one particular guy and whether he will better succeed than myself? Yup. In a second. Would I beat that scout a certain percentage of the time? Sure. Would he beat me a larger percentage of the time, all things equal? Yeah, he would. Would he beat me a larger percentage of the time with P.I. reports and interviews with the kid's teammates and college coaches at an even higher rate and having seen him do a chalk talk quiz with a coordinator? Likely yes. As you noted, though, in your first paragraph, mock draters and GMs are doing different things.

Well, that's one view, I guess. But it contravenes virtually all of the evidence about the Nix era. We were told again and again that Russ no longer had any control over football operations and people present the fact that he was in the room as proof of power. It's not. Or the fact that the decision-makers on Rexy reported that Brandon had the same opinion that they had. Again, agreeing loudly with the powerful, that's not evidence of any power. Just the opposite, generally. For some reason, though, people want to believe it. But Yungmack is right about why they couldn't get any serious candidates for coach or GM when Ralph's health was going downhill. Nobody wanted to be in a position virtually guaranteed to be blown up underneath them when the new owners came in. Why would they? Ralph was going to give $10M a year, the highest ever offered to a coach, to one candidate if I remember correctly ... Cowher, maybe? ... and nobody would take it. Why would they? It's why they had to go so far down the list before they finally found a guy, Gailey, willing to at least run with the egg for a while.

There really are. Fair enough that this year there are no '91 Eagles or '85 Bears or '00 Ravens, but there are still a bunch of teams that play defense quite a bit better than the other teams do, the Steelers, Washington, the Rams and New Orleans for four. I'm more worried about our defense than our offense. They've slowed some of the better run teams later in this season after they started playing better, but they really had to sell out against the run to do so. I think we'll see them spend most of their energy scheming the run and if Baltimore can hit a few plays to Hollywood, or the TEs or RBs to counter that, things could get bad, IMO. I could also see the Bills run away with this game, but I'm really nervous. They match up well with us.

50/50. This is going to be a tough game. We're the better team but they match up extremely well against us. I'm very nervous.

It's not that they're smarter drafters. They're better because they get a ton more info that the journos do. A ton. The journos and mock drafters don't have scouting staffs reporting back to them, they don't get to take the top guys to steakhouses for dinner, they don't get to bring in the 30 players for two-day visits. And White Linen above is dead on, as were others, they do two completely different things, and the thing the mockers do is actually harder, since they have to predict every pick, whereas the GMs only have to predict how well certain guys will fit their own team's environment, schemes, locker room, etc. Beane doesn't get criticized based on whether the Pats pick somebody and how well he does. The mock drafters do ... "You said that guy was going to fall to the 2nd, and you said he stood a good chance to be good and he sucks during his rookie year so he's a bust, so you're lousy at this." If GMs were hired, fired and criticized based on the same metrics, they'd come out looking just as useless. What mock drafters do is mathematically impossible to do extremely well.

That's Arthur Brown. Great song.

Absolutely everyone gives us a chance. They might not be predicting that we win, but they all give us a chance.

I disagree to some extent. He's a good passer. He's just not any better than that. As Chris Simms always says about him, "If a guy is open, Lamar will hit him." That's right. But he doesn't throw guys open or do well in tight windows. You're right, you have to force him to be a QB. But he's good. He's just not very good.

I wouldn't doubt it at all. Agreed on all you say about Josh's positives, even at that early age, but the Fins players say Tua is a hard worker too. The difference is that in Josh's rookie year there was no Fitz here. We might have had the same problems if we'd kept - wow, I couldn't even remember his name, just had to look it up, honestly - Tyrod and played Josh before he surpassed him. Although I doubt we'd have heard about it. This Bills team pulls together. I don't think we'd have seen publicly aired doubts like this even if players were privately doubtful. It's a wonderful thing Josh has developed the way he did. We are so lucky to have him. This seems reasonable to me.

I'm mad because someone has a different opinion than mine.

I'm making a list of bad plays by our players. It's adding up too. It's almost as if people are not perfect. And a list of bad calls that worked for us would also add up, just as a list of bad plays by opponent players would add up. I'm betting a list of bad decisions / bad execution in your life would also add up. A list of them in mine certainly does.

Yup, and it makes sense. We score more in the second half than the first. Probably because we better know what the defense is doing. Possessions in the second half are worth more to us. More, which is a stronger psychological statement: the first half is ours, or the the second half is ours?

AV stands for "Approximate Value." They don't even begin to say that a guy who had a 19 is better than a guy with an 18. He also is far more confident of the value being tell in terms of quality of career than he is for quality of season. "So, with all the players in place, I need a way to measure their NFL success. As we go through it, keep in mind that it is not meant to be a precise metric, but rather an approximate measure of value." https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index6b92.html?p=465 "A reminder that this method is for the purpose of establishing approximate value. From yesterday's post, this is James: "The approximations are intended only to distinguish as quickly and reliably as possible between large contributions, very large contributions, gigantic contributions, medium-sized contributions, small, smaller, and negligible contributions." I bolded "as possible" to remind us that there's only so much we're going to be able to do." https://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/index2905.html?p=466 It isn't exact, and shouldn't be taken as being confident of valuing a QB with an AV one season of 19 as being significantly better than one with an 18. What he said somewhere is that they can't be sure a guy with a 21 is better than a guy with a 20. They do feel confident that groups of guys ranked higher will generally be better than groups of guys ranked lower. Disagree. Rodgers is having a colossal season and will probably be MVP for good reason. But Josh is a close #2, IMO. And that's pretty damn good.

Amazing stuff, Bill. A great read.

Yeah, that's the way it works in every game. If you imagine that you played better, then you will imagine that the outcome was better. We (and every team) have some bad plays every game. It's part of the game. We will have some this game too.

No. You haven't separated fumbles that happen while running from fumbles that happen in the pocket or passing or whatever. Guys don't fumble only when running. QBs handle the ball on every play. Plenty of fumbles come when a guy is passing, not running. You're only taking the total # of fumbles for each guy (and by the way I only checked the first two and already found one error, Cousins had nine, not 10 fumbles) and dividing the total number of fumbles whether running or not, and dividing by the number of runs. All that will do is produce lower, nicer-looking percentages for guys who run more. Sorry, this doesn't show much of anything except that when your denominator is larger the result will be smaller.

Haven't kept close track of Dugger since the Pats got him but he'd likely have been the Bills pick if he'd made it there. I wouldn't be surprised if Taron's playing better right now, he's a third year guy and Dugger's a rookie. But the Pats have said Dugger has gotten a lot better late in the season. He's certainly gotten a lot more snaps the second half of the year. Though Taron's really tough for his size, the two aren't much alike. Dugger is a bit of a chess piece for Belichick and he covers TEs quite a bit. Dugger's about 25 pounds heavier but has a smidge faster 40, but though Dugger didn't run the shuttle, Johnson probably would beat him in quickness. I'm happy with Johnson, especially where we drafted him, but IMO we'll see someone like Dugger in Buffalo in the next two or three years.

Again, he was. The story came out a few years ago. He was kicking asses and taking names in camp his second year, he'd really gotten a ton better. And he hurt his back and then was urged to keep playing. He could have been extremely good. https://buffalonews.com/sports/bills/torell-troup-the-one-drafted-a-pick-ahead-of-rob-gronkowski/article_5b363410-dbdd-503c-a774-69fedf3d37d7.html "When Gronkowski was scoring more touchdowns than any tight end ever in 2011, Troup was, as he said, 'all doped up' on Toradol to survive Sundays. During the week, he chugged pain pills like Tic Tacs. Troup played that season with a fractured back – his disc slipping, jamming into nerves – enduring the most unthinkable pain he doesn’t wish upon his worst enemies. "Teammates told him to quit. Coaches, he claims, told him to play. So he played to the literal point of tears and the subsequent L4/L5 spinal fusion ended his career. "He’s more casualty of a ruthless business than bust. More commodity chewed up and spit out by the NFL than outright failure. Each creak of a joint in the a.m. is his aching reminder of his season from hell." ... and ... "His rookie year was OK. A start. This second season would be dynamite. "Through the 2011 lockout, Troup trained with a vengeance. He reported to training camp at a chiseled 319 pounds, eager to break out. Practices began at St. John Fisher and the kid who had 23 tackles and no sacks the year prior was dominant for stretches. “'Honestly, I was killing the offensive line,' Troup said. 'Eric Wood, I’m good friends with him, but they couldn’t handle me.' "One day in the lunchroom, head coach Chan Gailey and General Manager Buddy Nix couldn’t contain their excitement. The two asked Troup to sit down with them and told this bull in a china shop they had no clue what he did over the offseason, but, wow, were they ecstatic to see this all transfer to game day. "Their words added more fuel to Troup’s fire. His tear continued. Teammates today still remember Troup’s raw strength. “'Low center of gravity,' guard Kraig Urbik said. 'Super strong. Legs were very thick. Strong dude – he was tough to move for sure.' “'He was a strong dude,' Wood said. “'Big, powerful guy,' added veteran Kyle Williams. 'He’s probably not your pass rusher, but a guy who could stack things up at the line and make plays at the line of scrimmage and do some good things there.' "Reached by phone, Nix instantly remembers this camp well. “'Those big guys are hard to find! Especially him,' Nix said. 'He had some movement ability and was really a strong anchor guy.' "As Nix recalls, the Bills were shifting to a 3-4 scheme when they took Troup and needed a nose to take on double teams. "He doesn’t remember teams being scared off by Gronkowski’s injury history, but the Arizona tight end was the one with the shoddy Carfax report. Back surgery sidelined him his entire final season at Arizona. Troup? He missed a few games due to a knee scope as a freshman but was healthy in totaling 52 tackles (12.5 for loss) as a junior and 35 tackles (five for loss) as a senior. "Then, without warning, his world started to crumble down." ... and ... "Troup missed one week of practice, wrapped the paw in a club and was prepared to punctuate his knockout summer in the preseason finale against Detroit. To this day, he cannot pinpoint the play, the moment, but during this game he fractured his lower back. “'I played all through the game doped up, [after playing with a badly broken hand]' he said, 'so I couldn’t feel it.' "On Wednesday, it felt like he pulled both hamstrings. He received an epidural. Tests later revealed the fracture. A disc in his back was slipping and pushing against nerves, causing burning and numbness down his legs. "Troup sat out the first three weeks of the season and returned. “'It’s easy to look back now and say, "I should have sat my ass down,”' Troup said. 'But I was young. I was stupid. And it cost me my career.'" It's a Tyler Dunne story, and a good one. I've only excerpted about 25 - 30% there.

Kinda yeah. "Given the challenges of defending hybrid tight ends, defensive coordinators are better served pitting an athletic safety with corner-like cover skills against a big-bodied pass catcher. Safeties are quick enough to run with these types of tight ends down the seam, while also possessing the athleticism to battle on post-ups and 50-50 balls in the red zone. "Most importantly, the presence of a hybrid safety on the field gives a defensive coordinator the freedom to use man or zone coverage without tipping his hand prior to the snap, which is a huge win for the defense." https://www.nfl.com/news/big-nickel-package-emerging-as-nfl-s-hottest-defensive-trend-0ap3000000375711

Uh oh. That's not good. He sure did play well, though. It was a courageous game for him.

I would point out another possibility, which is that Ben's arm isn't what it used to be, and that he's now having a lot of troubles throwing long, so he throws mostly short, which allows other teams to notice this problem and attack it. And if Ben doesn't start throwing long at a high degree of proficiency, he will be left throwing into coverage, tight windows and making bad decisions regardless of the schemes the coaches dream up. You don't have to "get stupid overnight" to suddenly start looking bad as a QB around Ben's age. It happened to Flutie, and it had nothing to do with stupidity. Or offensive schemes, but the defenses we played behind Flutie sure noticed quick and adjusted their own schemes.

That defense was playing very well, and they were absolutely fixated on stopping the long ball. The first ball was a drop, and it was his fault. The second was just good defense and the Colts playing deep. IMO he's going to be in a much more favorable situation the next couple of weeks. I'm not worried.

I didn't mind the original call. I was totally unsure first time around. But the replay refs? Man, yeah, it was close, but his knee came up before the hand touched him. Should've been overturned.

Puh ... ... ... leeze! Revisit away, but claiming we won that game because of the kickers is missing the point by a million miles. The fact is that it was close because we couldn't pressure the quarterback, our many early three-and-outs, and many other problems. But if you were going to (absolutely wrongly) talk about kicks as more than one of many factors, you 'd have to point out that the most important field goal of the day was the one the Bills defense didn't allow the Colts to get in range for at the end. 2:30 to go when the Colts get the ball ... and they can't get to field goal range. That was the key field goal of the day, the one we prevented them from getting into range for. Again, every field goal is the result of the field position resulting from that particular drive. If the defense is a bit better it's a punt. If the offense is a bit better it's a much much easier field goal or a touchdown. Even on drives with field goals, that score isn't purely a result of the kicker ... nowhere even close. And it's not difficult to figure out who's valued. This is a capitalist league in a capitalist society. The position that gives you the largest competitive advantage is quarterback. Who'd have guessed that they would also be the highest paid, except anyone who spent a billionth of a second thinking about it. You can tell who's important by how well they're paid. You can tell who's not by how little they're paid. (Not to mention where they are drafted ... or for kickers, generally undrafted). The five highest paid positions are these: QBs pass-rushing guys who come off the edge LTs CBs WRs That's not a coincidence. It's a result of the fact that they are the positions that give the biggest bang for the buck, and kickers are far far below them. As I pointed out above, the highest-paid kicker gets an average of $5M a year (which is a bit below what Tyler Kroft gets). That's how important they're considered.