Thurman#1

From his ending up in Arizona, it looks like Watt, who is coming off receiving most of his $100M contract, found the Bills offer not high enough. Seems fairly likely the Bills offer was not all that big. Offering Dupree the same money will probably earn us a chuckle.

Nonsense. If we learned one thing this year, it was how impactful Star really was and how much we missed him. Star is indeed small for a space eater. But he gets the job done. I loved Washington back in the day. Terrific player. But the question is how well a guy gets the job done. Lotulelei got the job done. I wouldn't mind drafting someone to take over down the line. It would make sense.

I work at McDonalds, but I've saved several thousand dollars. Think I'll go get a new Ferrari F12tdf. Note: this is one of them new-fangled analogy things.

Diggs put an extra $10M on our salary cap and for the future. And he was wildly unusual in how cheap he was. Last year that was not a problem. This year it would be a disaster.

Yeah, round 3 or later would make sense to me.

If you're going to draft for need, we should draft an Edge in the 1st or 2nd. And if this year showed anything, it's that Star is worth a lot more than many on here thought. IMO unless he regresses he may finish his contract. Having said that, we could use another big guy in our interior DL over the next few years, to platoon with Star or play next to him on big man downs. And replace him as he ages. And I'm not an expert on where guys should go, but the big boards I look at all say you're drafting for need with those picks and reaching, and that's about the last thing Beane is going to do.

None. Which is why they play where they play.

He's had two good seasons. Which is why he had an interview last year as well. But yeah, I think people may think two seasons isn't enough yet. Which down the road could make a lot of teams look stupid. Or maybe just the opposite, making them look smart. Right now it's not possible to tell which will be the best way people look back at passing on him this year.

No, it isn't money. It's human fallibility. A perfect GM who always made the exact correct pick every round and brought in the best possible bargains at FA would in a not very long time end up winning most Super Bowls. And if rookie QB contracts are the best time to win a Super Bowl, how come most Super Bowls are not won by QBs on rookie contracts? How come no QBs on rookie contracts even made the SB this year? Obviously, a rookie contract for your QB helps you financially, but And paying for competent but not elite QBs can either put your team into mediocrity cycles or win you Super Bowls (Nick Foles' Philly contract when the Eagles won behind Wentz and Foles, for example, or when Denver won with Peyton well beyond his elite years, or paying for Eli Manning who was a very good QB but certainly never elite). Paying too much for a QB is an excellent example of human fallibility. It often means a GM is desperate to post a winning record the next year or two in a poorly guided mission to keep his job. Don't get me wrong, the cap is huge, I get that. But my post you replied to said that the reason you can't "be great at every position" was human fallibility rather than money, and that's correct. GM fallibility for bringing in the wrong guys and player fallibility for not maximizing themselves. Imagine if you could've put Josh Allen's brain inside JaMarcus Russell. Carson Wentz begins to look like a guy who could also stand a brain transfusion from a great QB, though it's still early enough that he's got a chance to be great. Even the teams with the best salary cap situations can't address every position well enough to be great at every position, or even close. It ain't us, it's the coaching staff. They drafted him and immediately declared him MLB and they've backed that up ever since. It's nutsy fans who want him to change in Buffalo. It's not the Bills.

Nor can they know it about Allen, Diggs or any player. Unless you think they should let Hughes, Beasley and everyone else the same age go, you have to figure that based on his career so far he's not injury prone, that the odds of injury do go up as people age, but that they seem to be willing to take that risk at that age on guys who aren't prone to injury. They do know him and his willingness to play through injury and his injury history far better than we do. I don't think injury will be much of a factor, unless they know something we don't know, which certainly is possible. IMO they will try to get his salary hit down in some way and keep him, if possible, but he certainly also might be let go. Salary, I think, will be a far bigger determiner of what they do with him than injury.

The Peters debacle was just a disaster by the FO, but Marshawn did not give us a choice. All absolutely terrific.

The "Draft Najee" movement is likely chasing a complete mirage, unless he falls to our second round pick, and he won't. Drafting an RB that high just doesn't make sense unless you think he's a top ten value or something like that. And he's not. The positional value and the fact that it would mean we'd have spent 2 3rds and a 1st on RB, which would be a very poor appropriation of resources. But yeah, there's a good chance they grab one in the 4th or later, I think. If they do, Yeldon would seem likely to go. Wouldn't be surprised or angered if they offer him a vet min + kind of deal. He's been solid when they played him.

More nonsense from you. "The Star signing was roundly viewed as the worst FA deal handed out in the NFL in 2018" ... by you and a few sad others on these boards, and by PFF. PFF's stats consistently understate the value of a space eater. Generally, though, it was thought to make a great deal of sense. By the way, here's a challenge: Find, say, three mentions of the word "travesty" in the contemporary coverage of the Lotulelei trade. You're the one who brought up that word. You said, "... even then it was a travesty." Find the word travesty, back then, and give us a couple of links. I'll tell you what, to give you some scope, I'll give you a few mulligans. Find two contemporaneous mentions of the word "travesty" at the time about the Lotulelei signing (outside your own posts and the other wildly negative saddoes on these boards), among the media. And I'll throw in these Dictionary.com synonyms of "travesty" to help you out: burlesque, farce, mockery perversion, sham, and laughingstock. Hell, I'll throw in catastrophe, calamity, debacle, tragedy, fiasco, washout, ruination, bane and blight, just for good measure. Go ahead, find 'em, and again, not on the boards but among actual media. Hell, I'll even start you off with the results of my google search for contemporary reactions to Star's signing with the Bills: "This will be a key signing for Buffalo as it tries to upgrade a defense that ranked 29th against the run in 2017. Lotulelei, of course, has connections to coach Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane from Carolina, where he was a first-round pick, No. 14 overall, in the 2013 draft. And based on his performance last season for Carolina when he played 58.9 percent of the defensive snaps, he was more effective when McDermott was the Panthers’ defensive coordinator Lotulelei is a 6-foot-2, 315-pounder who got off to a great start in his NFL career, but last year wasn’t quite so effective. Still, what he does best may be what the Bills need most — he can occupy blockers in the middle of the line, which will enable the linebackers to make plays." https://www.democratandchronicle.com/story/sports/football/nfl/bills/2018/03/13/star-lotulelei-free-agent-buffalo-bills-sean-mcdermott-carolina-panthers/419580002/ "On the surface, a five-year, $50 million dollar deal seems a bit hefty for Lotulelei, especially considering that the 28-year-old has only bested the 26-tackle mark once in his career. However, Bills’ general manager Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott are familiar with Lotulelei, as they worked with him in Carolina. They obviously feel as though he’s worth the money." https://billswire.usatoday.com/2018/03/15/buffalo-bills-star-lotulelei-contract-details/ "Most significant signing: In terms of financial investment, the headline signing of free agency was defensive tackle Star Lotulelei. Ranked No. 11 among ESPN's top 100 free agents, Lotulelei joined Buffalo on a five-year, $50 million deal with $25 million guaranteed after five seasons with the Carolina Panthers. At $10 million per season, his deal becomes the richest among any player under contract for the Bills after the trades of left tackle Cordy Glenn and quarterback Tyrod Taylor. He is expected to fill the run-stuffing role vacated when the Bills traded Marcell Dareus last season. Adolphus Washington started in Dareus' place the final two months of the season and the results were subpar, with Buffalo allowing the NFL's second-highest average yards per rush inside the tackles, according to ESPN Stats & Information. If Lotulelei can help turn that around, he will be worth it." https://www.espn.com/blog/buffalo-bills/post/_/id/31490/bills-free-agency-included-star-lotulelei-signing-teams-richest-deal And as for whether they turned that around, the Bills went from 9th worst at defensive YPA allowed in 2017 to 9th best at it in 2018. " 'I’m all for bringing on as many good football players as we can,' Kyle Williams said, referring to Lotulelei. Listed at 6-foot-3 and 311 pounds, Lotulelei was a five-year starter with Carolina after being selected by the Panthers in the first round of the 2013 draft out of Utah. "The native of Tonga is reunited with McDermott, who was Panthers defensive co-ordinator before taking over in Buffalo in January 2017. Bills general manager Brandon Beane is also familiar with Lotulelei and played a role in drafting him after previously serving as Panthers assistant GM. Lotulelei has forced two fumbles and has 11 1/2 sacks in 76 career games, and was voted to the NFL all-rookie team in 2013. His future in Carolina was uncertain after the Panthers signed defensive tackle Kawann Short to a five-year, $80 million contract extension last off-season, and also used a first-round pick for Vernon Butler last year." "Lotulelei’s addition is the latest bold move made by Beane in reshaping Buffalo’s roster since being hired in May to replace Doug Whaley." https://www.sportsnet.ca/football/nfl/report-bills-expected-sign-defensive-tackle-star-lotulelei/ "Why he’s here: - When he signed on the dotted line in free agency in March, the Bills had an immediate upgrade to a position that played quite poorly all throughout the 2017 season. Star Lotulelei comes in as an immediate starter for the Bills at the one-technique position along the defensive line, boasting a frame, a skill-set that meshes well, and plenty of experience in the very defense that the Bills will be running in the upcoming season. The Bills signed Lotulelei to a long-term deal, meaning they would have no incentive to try and release him at least until the 2020 season, but even then they'd still have to eat a fair amount of cap space to do so. At 28 years old, Lotulelei is right in the prime of his career, so the expectation is that he'll continue at his current playing level for the next two-to-three season. Despite playing in his prime, he doesn't play a high profile position and statistics alone overlook his actual impact on the game. 2018 outlook: - In the upcoming season, the Bills will hope Lotulelei can be a considerable upgrade to the below average play of Marcell Dareus before the trade, and then of Adolphus Washington at the one-technique defensive tackle spot. Lotulelei's primary responsibilities will be to eat up a blocker or two each play and to allow his more rush-oriented teammates around him to get a one-on-one matchup to make a positive contribution. If Lotulelei is getting pushed around, or even falls on some plays, it makes the offense that much easier to control life at the line of scrimmage -- which was a considerable issue for the Bills during the 2017 season. With high ticket items around him on the defensive line, the Bills will depend on Lotulelei to be the glue that holds the defense together." https://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/buffalo-bills-top-20-talents-in-2018-no-13-dt-star-lotulelei "Per Adam Schefter of ESPN, the Bills have inked Lotulelei to a new five-year contract that will become official once the new league year begins on Wednesday and free agency officially opens.The signing will help the Bills along the defensive front which suffered greatly after they traded Marcell Dareus to the Jacksonville Jaguars last season. Lotulelei will now provide an anchor for the next few years for a defense being remade in general manager Brandon Beane’s image. It’s a unit that’s suffered plenty of losses in the last year, including Reggie Ragland to the Kansas City Chiefs. "Speaking of the Chiefs, they were reportedly among the interested parties for Lotulelei, the former Carolina Panthers defensive lineman who would have helped fill a significant hole along the line in K.C. Bennie Logan is now a free agent, as is Jarvis Jenkins, and there has been zero buzz concerning either player returning to this point. It was already a thin position and, as of now, the Chiefs have Allen Bailey and Chris Jones as the sole contributors to rely upon up front. Lotulelei has been a reliable anchor along the trenches for the Panthers, starting all 16 games the last two seasons. Last year he had 1.5 sacks and 25 total tackles for Carolina." https://arrowheadaddict.com/2018/03/13/nfl-free-agency-star-lotulelei-will-sign-buffalo-bills/ "The Buffalo Bills are adding standout defensive tackle Star Lotulelei. What should we expect from the five-year defender with his new team? ... You have to crawl before you can walk. And the team has already been very active this offseason when it comes to improvements. And now new general manager Brandon Beane has hauled in a very familiar face in defensive tackle Star Lotulelei.The former University of Utah standout and 14th overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft missed only one game and made 75 regular-season starts for Ron Rivera’s club in Carolina. He’s started all 16 contests each of the past two years and is one of the better run-stoppers around. And that’s very good news for a Buffalo Bills’ defensive unit that could use all the help it can get in that regard. Grade It’s an immediate upgrade for a defensive unit that has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the league in each of the past two seasons and under two different systems. This past year, the defense got off to a good start against the run but things appeared to go downhill rapidly once the Bills opted to deal Marcell Dareus. In this case, Lotulelei played in McDermott’s system for five seasons in Carolina and the learning curve should be non-existent. That being said, this is a player that must improve his performance. Grade: B+ https://fansided.com/2018/03/13/nfl-free-agency-update-star-lotulelei-signs-bills/ You ridiculously contend that "even then it was a travesty." So I googled "2018 worst FA signings NFL". Guess what. Star wasn't there. Here's what was: https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/25760941/best-worst-2018-nfl-free-agent-signings https://www.battleredblog.com/2018/4/17/17245670/2018-nfl-free-agency-the-five-worst-free-agent-signings This article listed each team's worst, and Lotulelei didn't even make that list, TE Kroft did. https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2827919-every-nfl-teams-worst-free-agent-signing-this-offseason https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/agents-take-the-2018-contract-awards-featuring-the-best-and-worst-nfl-signings-of-the-year/ Lotulelei signing given an "A." (Murphy a "C") https://www.sbnation.com/2018/3/12/17103704/2018-nfl-free-agent-grades-trades-offseason-moves There was some mild criticism at the time. Most of the reaction was accepting or mildly positive. But outside PFF-based criticism, the negatives were mostly that they paid a bit too much. But the criticism was mild, and there wasn't all that much of it.

Be surprised, be very surprised. We get this every single year, though it's usually only a few people and at a different position every year. A couple years ago there were some who thought we should go 1 and 2 at WR. People have said this before at LB, they've said it before at Edge ... it just goes on and on. Yet it never happens, and for good reason. I mean, every once in a while a stupid team does it, but not the Bills and certainly not this smart FO. It doesn't make sense. And this year far less than ever. Too many needs, too few chances in terms of money and picks to address those needs. And it's nonsense that Edmunds played decent at best. He played poorly early when he was injured and he played very well once he got better. And yeah, Mahomes really made him look bad. We should trade for one of those LBs who don't look bad against Mahomes, like, like um ... well, like nobody really. I guess you could say Devin White, but though he did look good, an awful lot of that was simply how well the DL was pressuring the QB. Mahomes with time makes everyone look bad, everyone. If we get rid of Milano, the odds on getting rid of Edmunds become miniscule, and they're low already, absent regression or injury or that kind of thing. Some fans here don't like Edmunds but the Bills love him and that's the bottom line.

Indeed. They don't let him being 2nd in the league in YPA in 2019 bother their ridiculous logic. The fact that Beane said, "I'm not looking at Devin Singletary or Zack Moss and thinking those guys came up short for us," can't be allowed to enter the equation for an instant. There was a thread a few days ago about who are the biggest scapegoats on the Bills right now. Singletary was right up there. It's kind of sad how people grab the pitchforks and storm the castle as option one, and they do it again and again.

Well, if it goes without saying then how come you disagreed with it? You said it was a crapshoot. Now you say it's not. I guess it goes without saying it's not a crapshoot. I guess it's at least good that you've got it the second time around. It's ridiculous to think we're overrating Beane's drafts at this point, ridiculous. I didn't say he's been superb, just that he's been very good. And he has. Again, his one draft that's been three years in the league has Josh Allen, Edmunds, Harrison Phillips, Taron Johnson in the 4th, and Wyatt Teller in the 5th. The worst of that bunch are solid picks and there are also several excellent values there. And again, yeah, the values do include Allen. And the fact that you don't think Wyatt Teller in the 5th was a terrific pick at this point says more about you than about Teller. And kid yourself about Edmunds if you must - many apparently must - but he's a two-time Pro Bowler at age 22 that the Bills absolutely love, a central figure on a defense that's been very good since he got here, except for the time when Edmunds was injured early in the season. He's a great pick. Not a huge value, but a really solid pick. And Harrison Phillips when healthy has been good and solid for a 3rd, getting quite a bit better later in the season this year as he got his strength back and beginning to look like his pre-injury self. That's a really good class in the only year that's been in the league long enough to give a good idea what their potential is. The rest are too young to fully judge, especially after a year without a real offseason, but there are a bunch of guys who so far look like solid gets in Oliver, Epenesa, Moss, and Singletary (2nd in the league in YPA his first year, there's every chance that's a line issue in the run game) and a bunch of them who look like real bargains in guys like 6th rounder Johnson, 7th rounder Sweeney, 7th rounder Dane Jackson, 6th Tyler Bass and 4th Gabe Davis. And a bunch who we haven't seen enough of yet to know for sure in Ford, Hodgins, and Knox. And absolutely dumping a 3rd round pick hurts your team's odds of success going forward. Again, all you need to do is look at Massey and Thaler and the Harvard Sports Collective Study, and basically every other serious study done on the subject. The more shots you have, the better your odds of helping your team. You don't trade major assets to go up higher in the draft, unless you're going after a franchise QB.

The precedent that is set is that different QBs get different deals for different reasons, in different situations and with different histories of performance.

$20 - $25 mill? I strongly strongly doubt this, though I certainly wouldn't mind a bit.

That would mean that taking that option would require paying the transition tag for his position. The transition tag for LBs in 2020 was $13.737 M. I think it's very likely that you indeed use the 5th year option on if you are the Bills, who love the guy. https://www.behindthesteelcurtain.com/2020/6/24/21301116/changes-to-the-fifth-year-option-salaries-in-the-new-cba-pittsburgh-steelers-fitzpatrick-devin-bush

Wait, a guy just said this. On Twitter? And then somebody collected a whole bunch of other guys with the same kinds of beliefs and they said the same kinds of things? Wow, must be true. Whatever we do, we shouldn't wait for a thoughtful, nuanced job of reporting on it, with evidence and context. After all, if there's one thing we know it's that nobody on either side of any issue ever goes on Twitter trying everything they can to twist situations and spin quotes and evidence to create outrage. That would never happen. Instead we need to start screaming immediately. That way we maximize the chances that ... um, that ... that we will scream a lot, I guess, and that so will others. That's the way to go. Don't wait for context!!! Scream, piss and moan!! And hurry!!! If we don't mindlessly howl and rant now, we might have to calm down and think, and that's the last thing public discourse needs.

Why am I being difficult? Hmm ... maybe for the same reason you are. Pretending the pandemic doesn't exist here doesn't make sense. Absolutely any projection on a subject like the future of the salary cap absolutely MUST include a projection on what the pandemic will do. The pandemic is maybe the single largest factor in the near-term future of the cap. It makes things very unpredictable. About the best you can do is to say something along the lines of, "If the pandemic proceeds along the best possible future lines, it should make a cap rise next year more likely." Hard to say how likely, though. I mean, the NFL owners didn't make $182M per team this year. How much less did they make? $150M? Less? More? Assuming they made $150M, will the owners want to subtract the money they lost this year ($182M minus $150M) from the cap next year? The next two years? Three? The PA would probably object, so how has this issue been treated in negotiations so far? If the pandemic is a lot lower but still around, would the states allow 50% stadium attendance? 75%? 90%? 100%? If someone sues a pro sports team and can prove through viral DNA results that someone died because the virus was passed at a stadium, what would that do? What happens if the major networks finally start saying, "You know, we're losing more and more money every year, we can't keep doing this anymore with the forever rising NFL contracts ... Doesn't work with our economics anymore"? What happens if TV revenue goes down? Streaming revenue will likely go up. How much? Would it make up the difference? Things are wildly wildly unpredictable right now, particularly in the very short term, but long-term too.

If Milano goes, that'll even further increase the already good odds that Edmunds stays. It might be hard to pay two LBs big money. If we're not paying Milano, paying Edmunds will be less painful. As for picking LBs in the first and 2nd this year? That would be a massive surprise. One? Certainly very possible, especially if Milano goes. Two? Really unlikely. We have other needs.

No. In a year when we have little cap space, it doesn't make much sense, unless the salaries are low, and it's unusual to get a good player with a cheap veteran contract, partly because the other team doesn't want to let them leave. Trading for vets is generally a more expensive way to go. Not the year for that.

Great idea. Bring in two HoF players as bookends. How about Alan Page and Merlin Olsen? They're a bit older than the two you suggest, but that's the direction your two are headed. Great timing to catch guys on the slide, that way they have momentum. The only proof that both of your guys have years of gas in the tank is opinion, and frankly opinion that is not real smart, as both of them are already headed downhill and not all that slowly. One? Yeah, maybe. Both, as you suggest? Outright butt-headed. Likelihood somewhat below zero, which is as it should be. Oh, and the odds on Kerrigan as a HOFer, not good. Maybe an outside shot. Not all that likely, and he's not playing at his old level anymore, or even anywhere close. Used to be a fine player, though.

Yeah, bring in both spent guys on a career downslide. Make it rain. Smart play.