Thurman#1

It's Oliver's third year and he's continuously made progress. If he continues at his current rate, they should absolutely pick him up. Hell, he's worth the fifth-year option right now without an ounce more improvement. Some of his very recent improvement comes from Lotulelei starting to get doubled in pass situations. Previously it had been Oliver getting the doubles this year. Now we've got two guys giving interior OLs problems in passing situations. And the first three rounds under Beane have been good, so far at least. Not great? Fair enough, but certainly good, and Oliver is a part of that. Edmunds has looked like an excellent pick since probably his second year. Epenesa is showing flashes, but will have to continue to grow ... but that's how these things generally go. Basham is way way too young to judge. Ford is getting up close to judgment age, though he's not there yet, but if he doesn't improve, he will have been a poor pick. Still has a chance to improve, though.

He doesn't stink. Not playing as well as you'd hope, certainly. But stink overstates it. In theory, maybe. But Beane greatly values draft picks, and for good reason. And yes, Norwell would be $13M against the cap next year. Right now on next year's cap we have $15.5M available re: Spotrac. Not a good fit. The kind of target we'd consider is the type mentioned above, an upgrade from a team looking to rebuild with draft picks, most likely an older guy but also a guy in his middle years who's on a contract that's not onerous. A Daryl Williams type, though we were pretty lucky he was available coming off a bad year. Guys coming off bad years or injuries are more likely to be made available. Thing is, guys who are obviously excellent players aren't generally going to be available for terms that Beane would reasonably consider for a tem in our kind of cap shape this year and next. That's the problem. That kind of guy when he becomes available usually has a lot of suitors and so things get bid up, and he costs too on the cap as well. If we do get somebody I'd guess it will be a journeyman type, but hopefully on the high end of that group.

No, they very much should not. Mortgaging the future would be absolutely butt-stupid. Particularly this early in Josh's career. We've got a decade left in our window. More maybe. Luckily we don't have to worry about Beane doing this. Unlike some on here, Beane gets it. He's made it clear that his goal is consistent competitiveness from his first P.C. Thank goodness we didn't get one of those doltish GMs willing to increase the odds in one year by decreasing the odds in several. Yeah, that's probably the reason we're in the top three in points and yards, that Daboll doesn't get it. Good grief there are some awful takes on here, and it's after a win.

There is no reason why the Bills won't win it all this year. A bunch why they possibly might not. Which is also true for every single other team in the league and was true for the Bucs last year and every champion there ever was. But not a single reason they won't.

Yup. Not likely but it does happen. One onside kick was recovered this week, I believe. But most of the Fins fans understood. There were definitely a bunch of whiners there, but most got it.

Oh, nonsense, that's not what Collinsworth said. He only said it's a fact that it goes on, not that it's defensible or reasonable.

Back in the bad old days we had people start the exact same kinds of threads on Bills boards when teams would beat the crap out of us, particularly Belichick. There probably is a point at which it's classless running it up, but as a lot of the Fin fans said, if you don't like it, stop them from scoring.

They're absolutely legit #1 RBs. They're not elite, they're not work horses and neither one is a home run threat. But they both get explosive plays and together they get more than the blocking would usually amount to and they add up to probably a top 16 backfield. They're limited, but they're #1s.

Yeah, totally. If I were the Fins I'd demand pick protections. Not sure I'd give them if I was the Texans, but I'd strongly consider it. They need to put this mess behind them. They all do.

They contribute as pass catchers. And the fact that they don't contribute more mostly comes down to Josh wanting to go longer. If we had an RB anywhere near the level of McCaffrey we still wouldn't use him enough to make it worthwhile paying him what McCaffrey gets. We'd probably trade him in his third year and bring in another 3rd rounder. A healthy McCaffrey really is a weapon, though. He'd take gadget plays too.

Um, nope. He might not tour but he's still alive. Saw him in a club in DC at the Wax Museum about 30 years ago, and he walked real slow to the piano but once he was there he was a freaking hurricane. In my all-time top ten concerts.

At who? At those not convicted of double homicide?

As I read a bit of this thread, it doesn't seem like an environment I'll want to spend a lot of time in. But quickly, I spent about ten years in Williamsville. I now live in Japan. Which is now, sadly, a more functional democracy than America has been the past few years, though I do believe America will, with difficulty and struggle, self-correct. What I learned? To depend on myself but love. And that people rejecting honesty as a major part of their belief system and their standards of behavior should be avoided and not respected. Everyone lies a bit, but those who do it as a consistent major part of their behavior pattern don't earn my respect, nor should they earn anyone's. That people worthy of respect must constantly fight with their tendencies to perceive what they want to believe. Confirmation bias must be fought, always, and evidence, such as that science provides, should be neutrally evaluated and only when trustworthy and logical, believed. Jesus, I'm getting tedious here, and so quickly.

Yes, we'll definitely hash out our total agreement on the fact that there have always been political problems such as debt, problems, deflation and inflation, and that the problem is the insurrection and the state of public discourse. Those two posts were in agreement. So I'll definitely hash out my agreement with myself.

There's always been inflation, deflation. There's never been insurrection in America. So you're being sarcastic, but though you don't realize it, you were actually right. There was an insurrection, and yeah it was deadly. We don't need more investigations, but we need the one that's happening now to go seriously deep and find what happened.

It's not politicians. There's always been debt, there's always been problems. The difference is that there has not always been such horrible public discourse, that's due to the internet and Facebook and social media. And there hasn't been insurrection in America. 'Nuff said, really.

The reason the analytics are so good is that many of those sneaks come in really good circumstances, and again, this was a terrible circumstance for it. Here's Tom Brady on the Manning Bros. Monday night show, at 3:00 on the video: Eli: Quarterback sneak. You're one of the best at it. Did you all call those plays or are you checking to that at the line of scrimmage when you see one of the gaps open? Brady: Sometimes there was a little of both. I obviously had the option to always do it. But at the same time, there was called ones. I believe that if they're all inside, go outside. If they're all outside, go inside. If they're all deep throw it short, if they're short, throw it deep. Yeah, exactly. That's why sneaks succeed at a high rate. Many or most are run through a gap. That's not what we did. Brady goes on to point out the gap that Jameis runs a successful sneak through in the Saints - Seahawks game.

Hah!!! Fair point!

Brad Butler was really getting good, and then he retired as a young guy to go into politics. Which didn't work out for him. Urbik was decent for a while, a tough guy but not really athletic. Ross Tucker was solid too. Ostroski was OK. But I'm starting to run dry after that. Two or three have been mentioned before. Levitre was good and big Ruben Brown is still underrated, an absolute road grader. The Super Bowl guys of course, Davis and Ritcher. But since those two not a ton.

Again, you simply don't know this. It's a guess. Sometimes people test negative at one time and then can test positive very shortly thereafter. You don't know what happened. As Hap suggested, pipe down. Pretty dense indeed. These posts are providing a living example. Assuming facts not in evidence is indeed a pure logical mistake. You do know that Hap is a mod, right?

Yup. And I'd probably add a few extra to your list. 9) Scheme fit for what that team requires 10) Susceptibility to career traps and killers like drug addiction, alcohol addiction, yes man addiction, posse addiction ... look at Aaron Hernandez, though CTE may have been a factor there. 11) Consistency of hunger after getting the big money (look at OL Mike Williams in Buffalo, he was physically far better than he needed to be, but never cared enough after getting the big contract) 12) Personal fit in the locker room and with the coaches (look at Jonathan Martin, a massive mis-fit with Incognito and that locker room) I'm moving towards smaller and smaller factors here, but basically you're right, a lot of moving parts. Plenty of times nobody knows, including the players, until it becomes obvious down the road. Great post. DeBerg is an excellent example, and I think you're dead on about hindsight.

Sometimes. But without question they can't always tell. Plenty of players simply aren't good enough yet (or they're borderline) when they arrive, and when that happens, the players don't know any better than the coaches and fans how well they'll develop. If the players had known for sure that Wyatt Teller was as good as he was going to become, they'd have told the coaches. These guys arrive in the NFL at around 22 years old, give or take. There's a ton of development still left, physical, mental and emotional. Sure, you can tell the Bruce Smiths and probably the Tajh Boyds on the other end (NYJets 6th rounder who didn't make it out of training camp and never took an NFL snap). Players have a lot more insight than we do into what a guy is ... but as little insight as we do into what that guy will become.

Jets, Nov. 24th, 1996, two half-sacks.

I'd argue there's a bit less reason for confidence against the Browns than you're admitting. Yeah, we beat the Ravens last year. But though Lamar appears now to have figured out the passing game, he hadn't back then. This year's Baker (and this year's Lamar) are quite a bit more dangerous than last year's Lamar in the passing game.

That's not news. It certainly is one opinion, though. Hope it turns out right.