Thurman#1

Fortunately, it's Beane and McDermott deciding what a good year looks like, not you.

Star is a very good space eater. Very good. Now, is he good at rushing the passer? Nah, though he compresses the pocket decently. Is he likely to not only eat space but also go beyond that to make tackles, as some very gifted DTs do? Nope. But does he eat space? Yeah. He's very good at it. Should we have brought in someone else to back Star up? That's a very reasonable argument, particularly as we now can be fairly sure that at least right now he's not vaccinated. But no, an off-the-street guy isn't going to do what Star does nearly as well. We've got backups for him, in Zimmer and Horrible Harry. Could we have brought in another? Yeah, I thought they would draft a long-term replacement this year and was surprised they didn't. But Star is very good at what they need him to do.

Nonsense. Brady was most of the reason they won those SBs, and it wasn't because he handed off well. It was because he made decisions better than any other QB for about fifteen years and then accurately made those decisions work. If it was all that easy, there'd be a ton of Bradys. Only about 10 guys in the world play QB well enough to put their teams in a position to win a Super Bowl on a consistent basis. CBs don't have as much of an impact, but there are an awful lot more guys who can play the position at a high level than there are QBs. CBs certainly have a much harder job in terms of athleticism needed. But QBs have to have accuracy and arm strength to a certain standard, and that isn't all that easy to do physically either, especially when guys are trying to sack you. And the mental part of the job, not to mention the mental preparation, is a ton harder for QBs. Physically, someone above said TE, and I think that's right. TEs who can do it all have to be athletic beyond belief, really really tough, and yet terrifically fast for their size.

Right, and that never happens outside journalism. Never happens on these boards, for instance. That article was thought-provoking. One hopes it might even provoke discussion where it matters, in the locker room, though that might be too much to ask for. If we are one of teh 31 teams that don't win the Super Bowl, the guy who wrote the article could very easily turn out to be right that one of those five areas were major contributors. And assuming someone will say, "I told you so" before he does probably says more about you than him. If he turns out to be right and then does that, your post might be pretty defensible.

Vaccinated people get it at a lower rate. That's how. Go to the COVID only thread if that's a sincere question. https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/223756-covid-19-facts-and-information-only-topic/page/22/?tab=comments#comment-7261057

Jones got 201 attempts, and the next back got 119. Think Singletary will get almost twice the carries Moss gets? GB RBs (including tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams) totalled 381 carries. Where ours, including Antonio Williams and Yeldon, had 290. Think we're going to run 31% more also? If you do think those two things, you might well think Singletary might do that. I would totally disagree.

My guess is that unless personal choices change, the draft, the free agency process and the player development process this year and in the off-season will be focused on finding replacements for Beasley, Lotulelei and the others. Purely for performance reasons, of course.

Disagree. I do see Singletary doing a great job this year, though. When called on. Yeah, this is a better question. I'd maybe take the over on that one.

Average at best CBs don't get contracts for the 17th highest average in football. And Darby did. Watkins has also collected high contract values, by some smart organizations, including Kansas City. And this year he's being paid almost as much per year as Emmanuel Sanders, whom nobody is going out of their way to call average. And for the 2nd time, it is YOU, NOT ME, who used the word "excelled." I said they were under-rated by Bills fans. They are. And while I'd certainly agree that Brown hasn't excelled, he's been very solid, and he's still mentioned here almost always negatively.

Well, first, I didn't say people were excelling all over the place. I said that when the Bills let people go, Bills fans underestimate them. It's true, there's nearly always sour grapes. Probably the best example is Stephon Gilmore. If you listened to Bills fans, you'd think the guy sucked, was soft, and on and on. Actually, he's been terrific. And there have been a bunch of cuts and guys who signed elsewhere who have had very nice careers elsewhere, including several guys you listed. You talked about Darby, Watkins and Preston Brown and all have been solid to very good elsewhere. Robert Woods has been excellent. NOT attacking Beane/McDermott here at all. They've been terrific, making smart call after smart call. A few mistakes but overall have been really great decision-makers. And they have to factor in finances into their picks, but most of the sour grapes is of the "he wasn't any good anyway" type rather than the far more reasonable, "we couldn't really afford him under the circumstances" variety. But they've had to cut / let go several good players, and Bills fandom overall has instantly responded with sour grapes. Not that it's only in Buffalo. It's a human glitch.

Money matters aside, as well as age and where people are in the arcs of their careers, and roles in terms of who's a slot guy and who's not, all of that aside ... based only on talent, of course Brown would make this roster. He's better than Kumerow and McKenzie. Maybe even Davis, though that's harder to say. Of course, you can't in real life throw away salary, age and roles. But if they could afford him, he'd very very likely make the team. Guys who the Bills cut or don't re-sign tend to be consistently under-rated on the boards, a kind of sour grapes, "who needs him" kind of feeling. Brown was a good receiver. Availability problems last year but hasn't overall been injury-prone. Which of Kumerow, Davis and McKenzie has put up a thousand yard season with Josh Allen throwing to him, or with any other QB for that matter? Possible, but unlikely. Certainly nothing we've seen so far. The Bills' own depth chart lists Davis behind Sanders. https://www.buffalobills.com/team/depth-chart

Shouldn't be any question that we lost something in terms of speed. Defenses and safeties will indeed notice and we probably won't see as much two deep. On the other hand, while he won't get over the top as often as Brown was able to till they just stayed deep on him, Sanders also gets deep occasionally, though he does it differently, using route running, suddenness and moves rather than raw speed. But Sanders has his own strengths, which will create complications and difficulties for defenses. We definitely lost something, and we'll likely see the result of that. But we still have Allen, and he's the key figure here, and Sanders will cause problems for defenses, though they will be different problems. We lost something, but gained something else.

Points absolutely matter in the equation. But yards allowed can be attributed almost completely to the defense. Whereas points allowed can not. The play of your own offense and special teams has a major effect on how many points allowed the defense is charged for. There's probably somewhere around a 30% - 40% liability on the other facets. When your QB throws a pick six or your special teams allows a punt return touchdown, that 14 points allowed "by your defense." Or at least that's what you'd think if you look only at points allowed. When your RB fumbles and the opponent gets the ball on your one yard line and the defense stones them for three plays and they kick a field goal, the yards allowed correctly tells the story, while the points allowed says, "Damn, three more points allowed by your defense." You're very right that looking only at yards allowed does not tell the story. But if you're going to look at one stat to as thoroughly as possible judge a defense, it might be the best baseline stat. Points allowed is more important but is more of a whole team stat than one that isolates the defense. McD's defenses have been damn good with amazing consistency, both here and in Carolina.

67 blitzes and not a single pressure? Holy cow!! What an amazing stat!!! By the way, what are they calling that play in Week 17 against the Dolphins when he blitzes and gets home in about a second and a half and gets the solo sack, at 8:52 in the 1st quarter? Did he teleport in and because of that they didn't feel it was a pressure because he just arrived without approaching? I mean, it took me about two minutes of work to find that one. Wherever you got that stat, it's full of cow feces. He did very well blitzing his first couple of years. It didn't work all that well last year, and a good deal of that was due to a general lack of ability for the Bills DL to pressure pressure the QB and cause chaos. The scheme wasn't working that well last year, partly due to a deficit of pass rushing DLs, partly a lack of Star to occupy OLs and partly injuries to Milano and Edmunds both. He's a good blitzer. It's why so many people who don't quite get the system keep calling for him to be transferred to OLB.

Yeah, there's no reason to think fire was ever a problem. More likely OL problems combined with the lack of the off-season. And Devin noticed that the offseason problem had an effect, and as we know this year spent a lot of time with a coach who works specifically with RBs. The effects have been obvious. And it ain't that he didn't work hard in 2020's offseason. He did. https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nys/buffalo/bills/2020/05/22/singletary-s-uphill-offseason But this year he worked with some different guys, including Nick Hicks (who's worked with Dalvin Cook, JK Dobbins and Jerick McKinnon). "Four days a week, two hours a day at PER4ORM, they hit the lab. On Mondays, they’ll drive the sled to feed explosion. Throughout the week, Singletary masters every type of cut imaginable: the sweep cut, jump cut, skinny cut and hesi-burst. The emphasis, always, is to get north and south so every drill is timed. On Thursdays, they’ll fine-tune “back-end speed.” That is, Hicks taught Singletary how to run because, frankly, Hicks says Singletary never was before. His mechanics were shot. “ 'It’s just been, "Hey, Motor, here’s this football. I want you to run as fast as you can to the other side of the field,’” Hicks says. “And that’s about as much technique he’s ever been taught. That’s what we’ve been really plugging — speed, speed, speed.” ... and ... "Hicks emphasizes the 'angles' of the body. Hicks taught Singletary how to strike behind his pelvic region to drive downfield, instead of popping straight up. Instead of instantly losing all RPMs. He often cites Adrian Peterson with all of his backs because when AP was AP, Hicks says, he’d hit a crease, 'throw his shoulders to the ground' and violently pump his arms to leave defenders in the dust. "Now, Singletary is running lower to the ground and gradually climbing. Like an airplane taking off. "With those arms chopping. “ 'If you’re actually having a slow arm pump,' Hicks says, 'your legs aren’t going to turn over fast. He had a lethargic arm pump. He’d kind of just throw the hands back as opposed to really hammering back and being explosive — driving the elbow backward. Once that happens, man, you really do find another gear.' ” https://www.golongtd.com/p/what-fuels-motor-devin-singletary https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/bills-devin-singletary-gains-speed-this-offseason/

Hadn't thought of that till I read your post, but yeah, this year's PS is very unusual in that all 15 so far were in Bills camp. Beane says the 16th will be from outside, but that's still reasonably unusual, only one from outside. They really did think they had a good group in camp this year.

Outside the 2018 season and a few this year, he actually has stayed healthy. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2021/3/21/22341413/injury-analysis-buffalo-bills-te-jacob-hollister-2021-nfl-free-agency

Ertz would only cost us his salary, $8.5M. Njoku $6.013M, as you said. IMO both of those are too expensive this year, though they could jigger things around to fit one.

I disagree that he wasn't the guy they wanted to move. If they were getting maybe a 3rd or a 4th or something, then yeah, make the trade even if it makes your lineup a bit weaker. For a 6th, though? I don't think so. It's not a big enough return to get you to get rid of a guy you'd like to keep, IMO.

Hate to see him go, but I think it's clear that this means they weren't keeping him anyway. A 6th isn't much, but it's something.

You don't see burst? I don't know what to say. I see burst. Again and again and again. The evaluators saw burst. Burst just does not appear to be the problem. When it comes down to change of direction I'd agree that at that point he does sometimes seem a bit awkwardish, and his height does appear to be an issue on that kind of play, but in terms of immediate burst, he's really good. Yeah, good speed as well, we see that the same, but that's not all it is, he's also quick. As I say, those were the first three evaluations I saw, and after I copied those three I looked at four or five others. They all said he had burst and was athletic as hell. Every one. As for the goal line stand play, yeah, Klein slashes into a gap, and Edmunds doesn't. But the fact is, there was a gap just in front of Klein for him to run into, and in front of Edmunds was a mosh pit that looked like it might move over to his right allowing a gap to open up just in front of Edmunds. So yeah, he waited, but the instant that gap appeared, he filled it. If he'd done anything else, it would have been a touchdown. I agree that the people who don't like him seem to want a slobber-knocker, and I think you're right that that's not what McDermott needs, nor what Edmunds is. Here's Baldinger talking going on about what a savage he is: Here's Mirsky and Troia breaking down a bunch of plays. It's good stuff, and you see him filling a lot of holes, beating blockers to the point of attack, and so on. It's good stuff, certainly not all positive. It's a couple of months old, well before camp started, but the breakdowns are good. He fills a lot of area in the middle in the pass game. But he's a good run defender too.

I think it's precisely that simple. The only real problem with letting the the other team get a lot of TOP is that you get fewer possessions. Other than that, it's fine. The Kelly-Thurman Bills used to be killed week after week in TOP. But the offense was good and so even if they got fewer possessions, they scored enough points to make it work. To work very well indeed. I'm getting your point. I'm disagreeing strongly. The Bills offense had nine possessions and punted four times and was intercepted once. That's awful, and it is basically the reason KC won.

While I think your work is thoughtful, observant and interesting here, I think you're off-target in one area. To me - and of course this is just an opinion - I think you are approaching this wrong on the DL. You seem to be saying that there is likely to be a trade (reasonable), so I'm going to look trade-first and figure out who we keep after looking at the trade. And I don't think that's the way they do it. I think they look at who they want to keep, and after deciding that they see if they can rustle up a trade with the folks they don't want to keep. And to me, Obada has been kicking butt this year, to the point that he's one of our two or three best pass rushers, and maybe even better than that. And yet the league-wide perception of him is that he isn't that great. I mean, we were able to get him for a one year, $1.5M contract. So I think if we traded him, we wouldn't get as much value in trade as he would give us on the roster. I think he's right here this year. I agree with most of the rest of what you said, it all seems reasonable and possible. I think it's really possible that some other DL will be traded.

Yeah, there is a legit counterargument there. You'll tend to get fewer drives, as the other team burns time. But when you hold the Chiefs to 26 points, your defense has done a pretty good job. The Chiefs averaged 29.6 a game. The Chiefs offense averaged 29.6, but their defense averaged allowing 22.6 a game, and we only managed 17, far below what they can generally be touched for. And it was worse than that. We only scored our 2nd TD, going from 10 points to 17, when the game was all but over, with 6 minutes left in the 4th quarter. The problem that game was mostly with our offense.

I'm not sure I agree with your contention that he isn't good at it. He appears to be good at it sometimes, though if what you mean is that he isn't excellent at it, or nearly as good as he is in other areas, I'd agree. It's true he isn't a mauler or a guy who often blows people up, though again he does it sometimes, such as on the goal line stand where he stoned the RB at the one last year. But he's too tall and rangy to consistently blow up guys. He doesn't have an easy time getting underneath them. It tends to be squattier guys who are the real slobberknockers. Totally disagree with you about the burst, though. His draft evaluations speak pretty eloquently about that: "Edmunds is an explosive athlete with rare physical gifts for a linebacker of his stature. He possesses both quick short-area burst to close in on the ball and recovery speed to track down ball carriers in pursuit. " https://cheeseheadtv.com/blog/tremaine-edmunds-nfl-draft-profile-and-scouting-report-249 "Edmunds combines elite size, speed and explosiveness into a productive, versatile linebacker package ... Twitches for a second when it is time to make a play ... Combines length with rare reactive athleticism and agility to access and tackle opportunities from unconventional angles" (Zierlein) https://www.nfl.com/prospects/tremaine-edmunds/32004544-4d00-0000-c30c-56fb5191e34f "Sometimes his amazing athleticism helps him to recover and still be in position to make the plays, but at the NFL level, playing against better athletes, he will need to improve his play recognition skills drastically." https://www.cover1.net/draft-recap-round-1-pick-16-lb-tremaine-edmunds/ Those were the first three that came up. All of the evaluations mention athleticism burst and quickness very positively. I think he's good at it depending on the situation, but that it's not his greatest strength, or even close. Agreed that it generally isn't his job.