SageAgainstTheMachine

Following the Eagles loss, our playoff chances were at less than 20% and I can only imagine the chances of clinching before the final game were less than 1%. You just do not know what's going to happen in this league.

The thread I started today reversed this kicker luck for us.

"Somewhat probable"

Revisit this topic in three years.

It’s good to remember that the Bills winning around the holidays can make it a really tough time of year for pessimistic fans.

I’m a semi-professional poker player. People with the outlook you’re describing, where bad luck is never an excuse for negative outcomes nor can good luck mitigate a positive outcome, hemorrhage money at a rate only second to the degenerate problem gamblers.

For real? Which one besides the TB miss?

Morse’s hold was borderline. Brown’s leg whip was egregious and the direct result of a complete whiff on the block.

The kick by Elliott in the Eagles game was the craziest. 61 yards in the wind and rain. Low line drive that looks like it wants to knuckle but just powers through. There's no way that was higher than a 20% probability kick.

Weird observation but compared to Tremaine Edmunds, Bernard has the body of an accountant. But he's simply put a better football player.

Yep https://www.nfl.com/videos/shaq-lawson-blocks-chase-mclaughlin-s-50-yard-fg-attempt

I like how this "somewhat probable" scenario got nixed in the very first game.

Blame? It's just an observation about variance. 96% is a couple standard deviations above expected.

Just an example of some of the negative variance that we have to overcome. It's one of those things that tends to normalize over a larger sample size but just like our luck on fumbled balls it's been going against us all season. Even though it was Easton Stick and not Patrick Mahomes I didn't feel remotely comfortable at the end of this game because I think Dicker would have nailed it from 67 somehow. But wouldn't it be awesome if this is where the worm turns?

Another game where Josh wasn't forced to CARRY the team, but the 11 yard completion in a tight window to Stef and 3rd and 9, then the heave under pressure to Shakir won that contest. Contrary to what the talking heads say he actually has a knack for game winning drives, it's just that someone on the defense actually closed it out this time.

We're 4-1 in the Joe Brady era and the offense was excellent in the one loss. Let the man do his thing. Biggest thing right now is that the OL looks excellent in run protection and poor in pass protection. Josh will still get his opportunities to win games with his arm when it counts. He did that today.

The last two weeks show just how important winning the division is. We need to be playing home games.

They've shown they can win or lose against all 31 teams in the NFL. It's a weird feeling where I'd believe you if you told me we'd go on a run where we win the SB with each game being a blowout and I'd also believe you if you told me we ended up 9-8 and missing out on the playoffs entirely. Been entertaining if nothing else.

Ty Johnson is doing very well as a second rusher. Ain't broke, don't fix it.

Do any Bills make it? Josh for second or third team? Ed? Schowman? Like usual our roster is more on the "everyone is above average" side.

I know. And even if we assign them an 80% chance at winning each game (which is high) they have an over 50% chance of losing one.

So weird seeing takes like this. There are like 4-6 upsets every week and the Broncos are mediocre as hell. We’re just handing them 3 wins?

I’m getting the Nobel Foundation on the horn.

And the award for least resourceful internet user goes to…

I always find it kind of funny how most people already know (or at least intuit) this on some level but there’s something about our human brains that like simple counting stats.