I'm not saying that it's impossible to go 11-5 and miss the playoffs, but it certainly is an anomaly. Then, there's the fact the Broncos get to play the Pats, Texans, Falcons, Saints and the AFC North this year. That means that the team which barely squeaked into the playoffs gets to play seven superior, and I'm not sold that Peyton Manning is their savior.
Then you have the AFC south, which was pretty muddled. The Colts are rebuilding but they won't be the joke they were last season. The Texans will be recovered from their crazy injuries. I see the Texans taking the division and the rest doing enough so that they aren't win factories.
The AFC North is the real trouble. They have three playoff teams (Ravens, Steelers, Bengals) who get to play the weaker AFC West, so their conference record is probably going to be strong.