Punch

I do think it's close to deadlocked overall based on the overwhelming media swing toward Lamar after last night's game, but I didn't say its 50-50 in the minds of every single voter. If Josh has a statistically mediocre game on Sunday (regardless of the outcome) the odds will shift to Lamar. He needs to play well and end the season on a high note.

The odds are shifting based in part on opinions publicly offered by the media talking heads, some of whom are MVP voters. I think Allen should win and very well may, but the odds aren't a true predictor and the probability you're extrapolating isn't realistic or mathematically sound. Even if Allen has the better odds at season's end, the voters can still vote for Lamar, that isn't meant to be provocative, it's common sense. Vegas betting odds are designed to draw the most betting dollars, not accurately predict an outcome. I hope Allen wins, but its most certainly 50-50 right now in the minds of voters and all the headlines are hyperbolically calling Lamar's season an "historic run to MVP".

The MVP won't be decided based on whether or not voters ran out of time while Allen still had the better odds. The trend toward Lamar is distinct, it's closer to a coin flip than 2-1.

The national media discussion around MVP shows how much the talking heads are little more than lemmings. It's all what have you done for me lately and counting stats. In less than two weeks, the consensus went from drooling all over Allen to presuming Lamar should be the favorite. In many cases, analysts are talking trash about Allen as though it's an insult to Lamar that Josh has been hyped at all. The race has been between Josh and Lamar for much of the season, little has changed though I think team context and game circumstances favor Josh whereas counting stats favor Lamar, but not by a huge margin. My favorite part is so many boasting about Lamar's QB rating, which has been proven to not be an effective measure of QB play. It's to a point where if Josh wins, many in the media will claim it's akin to stolen valor.

I'm so sick of the Lamar discourse from Ravens fans and all the analysts trying to be clever. He isn't being sleighted if a case has been made for Josh Allen. Lamar is having a great season, but it's reasonable to suggest there's been some stat padding against inferior opponents and also late in games where they've trailed. The MVP case can easily be made for either.

I don't know if it's technically MVP hype, but I was looking through my saved social media and came across this tweet from September that says it all:

MVP

Just keep moving forward.

It's almost hard to believe no QB has done this before--- on top of it, of the various players who have accomplished it, none have done it only 2 plays!

Whatever happens down the stretch, the schadenfreude I feel for the Dolphins and especially the Jets has been very satisfying.

I'm not generally fatalistic, but it does feel like the Chiefs will somehow never lose again. It's maddening.

These "enhanced" yard lines are creating more problems than they're solving. They're blurring right through the action on the field.

A 4 year old Josh Allen is still no worse than a top 25 QB in the NFL.

Based on the title, I assumed it was the team owners.

No one has made that claim since like Week 3.

Nantz and Romo thought it was good during the broadcast. I actually missed it.

The only people calling it a rebuild were in the media.

We've never been more back.

https://www.instagram.com/p/yi1ecXy9hj/?igsh=MTUyaG0zOG5iYmx4Zw==

I understand what you're saying across a broader timeline, but the relevant time period in this case isn't over the course of your entire life though, only the past 5-10 years. The Cowboys haven't been competently run during that time and this year are getting blown out of games by halftime week after week.

Not to discount any points in the OP, but the Raiders, Cowboys and Browns are all poorly run franchises awash in disarray. Its worth pointing out they haven't made very many smart moves over the past decade.

You just about nailed it! 19 snaps according to Nathan Jahnke at PFF: