Astrobot Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 I've done lots of fooling around with our DraftTek 2010 Draft Simulator, and it seems to make the most sense to pick a DT early in this draft based on the relative strengths of each position. There is a cluster of very good DT's and WR's right where we'll likely pick (#5 to #12) in Round 1. I notified DraftTek that we wanted DT Ndamukong Suh if he was still available at our Mock's pick (he was). In the second round, we'll likely find a cluster of OT's (Ciron Black and Charles Brown, and Maryland's Bruce Campbell) plus some very good QB's (Bradford, Tebow, Locker) and DE's (Selvie, Odrick, Woodden, Oghobaase). I'm of the school that would pick an OT here; the computer picked OT Charles Brown since Black was just picked. The third round has OLB's galore going early (#65-#77). These will include Bruce Carter (likely gone by our pick), Travis Lewis (Oklahoma), A.J. Edds (Iowa), and Justin Cole (more of a 3-4 backer). Sure enough, the simulator picked Travis Lewis OLB for the Bills. Early RD#4 looks like a hodgepodge right now, with teams picking by need. The simulator picked Dan LeFevour QB out of Central Michigan, but QB Clausen was still on the board, as was Dennis Pitta, the TE from BYU (watch him on Saturday), and Cameron Heyward, DE from Ohio State. An emotional pick would be Mike Williams WR Syracuse, picked by Dallas at #112. If you use the Simulator (link) let me know what you think, and how we can improve it for general use. Astro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2o Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 If Suh was on the board when we picked I'd run to the poteum. I highly doubt he will though. The Bucs will take Suh at #1, #2, or #3, wherever they pick. You can bet they will be in the top 3 picks and they were making a run at Haynesworth in the offseason. We won't end up with a worse record than them. Suh looks like a monster and they will draft their defensive cornerstone in April 2010. Terrence Cody or Gerald McCoy look like more realistic options if we are going DT in round 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 I've done lots of fooling around with our DraftTek 2010 Draft Simulator, and it seems tomake the most sense to pick a DT early in this draft based on the relative strengths of each position. There is a cluster of very good DT's and WR's right where we'll likely pick (#5 to #12) in Round 1. I notified DraftTek that we wanted DT Ndamukong Suh if he was still available at our Mock's pick (he was). In the second round, we'll likely find a cluster of OT's (Ciron Black and Charles Brown, and Maryland's Bruce Campbell) plus some very good QB's (Bradford, Tebow, Locker) and DE's (Selvie, Odrick, Woodden, Oghobaase). I'm of the school that would pick an OT here; the computer picked OT Charles Brown since Black was just picked. The third round has OLB's galore going early (#65-#77). These will include Bruce Carter (likely gone by our pick), Travis Lewis (Oklahoma), A.J. Edds (Iowa), and Justin Cole (more of a 3-4 backer). Sure enough, the simulator picked Travis Lewis OLB for the Bills. Early RD#4 looks like a hodgepodge right now, with teams picking by need. The simulator picked Dan LeFevour QB out of Central Michigan, but QB Clausen was still on the board, as was Dennis Pitta, the TE from BYU (watch him on Saturday), and Cameron Heyward, DE from Ohio State. An emotional pick would be Mike Williams WR Syracuse, picked by Dallas at #112. They should grab the best LB in rnd 1 they can get their hands on, whoever that might turn out to be. If you use the Simulator (link) let me know what you think, and how we can improve it for general use. Astro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuckincincy Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 I've done lots of fooling around with our DraftTek 2010 Draft Simulator, and it seems tomake the most sense to pick a DT early in this draft based on the relative strengths of each position. Astro They should grab the best LB in rnd 1 they can get their hands on, whoever that might turn out to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maddog69 Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 Astro - Thanks for posting. I like reading your mocks. They are very entertaining. But, I personally think that not having the Bills pick a QB with a very high pick(rd1 or 2) really lessens the validity of your mock. If we draft in the top 10 and do not atleast attempt to address our lack of a franchise QB, I will be pretty disappointed. Every year, this board lights up with the names of all of these great DTs who you people guarantee as future hall of famers who would turn the Bills into perennial SuperBowl contenders. Correct me if I am wrong, but the only one who has come close to expectations is Ngata. Dorsey seems like a bust. Harrell and Okoye have done nothing. Stop with the round 1 DTs. You are better of picking up an older vet like we did with Sam Adams or Ted Washington. We need a Franchise QB. It would seem more likely that a QB taken at the top of the draft would have a much higher chance of success than some late round prospect. I know Tom Brady was a 6th rounder. But he's the only one I can think of who has gone on to be an elite QB. We need to hire personnel people to identify which of the prospects this year are the franchise QB and then do whatever we have to to pick him. Hopefully we won't be picking near the top of the draft again for a very long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill from NYC Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 This mock draft has only 3 LTs being taken in the first round. One of them is projected at #30. Lately, 4 LTs seem to go in the top 10, let lone round 1. This says to me that if the Bills have a top 5 pick (not an impossibility), they would need to use this pick on a LT, or so it would seem if the pickings are slim at this coveted position. This mock is littered with first round defensive backs, especially safeties. Hopefully Jauron won't be there to continue the Levy/Jauron blueprint for losing. Btw, your work on the draft is always appreciated and I extend my deepest thanks for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bills_red Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 Odrick and Cameron Heyward would play DT in a 4-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N.Y. Orangeman Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 Do you really think Bradford, Locker or Tebow will be there in the 2nd? Not a chance IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
headcase Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 We need a Franchise QB. It would seem more likely that a QB taken at the top of the draft would have a much higher chance of success than some late round prospect. I know Tom Brady was a 6th rounder. But he's the only one I can think of who has gone on to be an elite QB. The question is what do you consider "elite", and do you really need one? Yes Brady is the obvious choice, but Hasselbeck was another 6th rounder, and Warner, Delhomme, and Romo were undrafted. The last four have all been considered elite, or at least upper tier, at some point in their respective careers. There are alot of people that have the talent to play QB in the NFL, if they have the team and coaching around them to succeed. Very few QBs can win without those things around them, regardless of when there were drafted. 300+ lbers, who are strong as an ox, and fast enough to play? Much more rare in my opinion. SSDD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thoner7 Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 I agree we need DL help in the form of both a DT and a DE, but I dont think we can risk passing on a day one starter at LT again. I dont care how good our D is, if we cant block for our QB and RBs our team has no chance. I think Suh, and even McCoy, could be perenial all pro DTs but if a guy like Okung can come in an be a Joe Thomas or Ryan Clady (and I think he can be) I think we have to go OT first. as far as BPA would go, I agree that would likely be Suh. But as far as BPA to help the Bills, its Okung IMO. IMO the best way to improve our D is to cut Ellison and start Harris. As for QBs, it all depends on who declares. Clauson, Bradford, Locker, Mallet could all come out or they all could stay. If one comes out we wont be selecting high enough, if 2-3 of them come out we could draft one- in round one or even round 2. Tebow and McCoy are not first round guys. IMO none of the guys I listed will be good with our LT situation. I wouldnt put the cart before the horse and get a hot shot young QB without giving him an OL. I hope we can add Okung in Rd1, and add a guy like Locker/Mallet/Clauson/Bradford in the second if they all declare (which is not all that unlikely if a rookie salary cap is on the table for 2011). This draft could play right into the Bills hands. As of right now I like mallet the best, and trust me I am not one to fall in love with 6'7'' and throw it 90 yards QBs (J.Russel was the biggest joke of a draft pick in history, and has only been rivaled by Josh Freeman - neither was ever remotely worth a 5th round pick). Mallet has the mental aspects, and is only a first year starter. Other options are Quinn and Brohm who I still believe are worth giving a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonydiamond Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 I agree, LT or DT it should be if our guy is there. I also agree on the fact that we need the LB help, it seems, quick, smart LBs are now the trendy pick. I guess I'd have no problem if our first three picks were defensive although, it might be freak out time if we got to round 5 and hadn't picked a QB yet. I am no expert by any means but I am skeptical, if not opposed to drafting a QB in the first round. I'm already weary of all the Tebow talk, no disrespect to his resume but he is definitely not the answer here. FCS, what happened to our beloved football team? I enjoyed the mock draft, thanks for posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonydiamond Posted October 23, 2009 Share Posted October 23, 2009 Quinn is not a bad idea at all but I wonder what happened to him in Cleveland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
auburnbillsbacker Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 I know I'm stating the obvious, but it is way too early to tell what the bills should do. What people perceive the strengthes and weaknesses of the draft will change between now and then. 1st round talents today will be taken in rounds 4-7, and vice versa. Know one knows where the bills will draft or who will draft in front of them. All of that being said, it is fun to speculate, and the bills could use a good dt. It is my opinion however, that the bills should do everything in their power to get whatever qb that they have at the top of their board. Fortunately or unfortunately, I feel the bills will not be in the top 8, so they will probably have to trade up. If that doesn't work I would hope that a good ot or dt would be available. I view lb as a position that you draft in rounds 2-4, unless an Urlacher, Willis, or Lewis is there, which happens only a couple of time per decade. The first round more times than should be used for play makers and talented big men. Cbs, lbs, interior lineman can wait for later rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
murra Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 Two questions: 1) Do you have some data confirming the validity of these mocks? In recent years have you guys been at all accurate? I think it'd be really interesting to see just how these seemingly intelligent mocks stack up with the sometimes irrational drafts. 2) Is Naaman Roosevelt still projected to go in rd 4, or has his stock slipped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Acantha Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 Do you really think Bradford, Locker or Tebow will be there in the 2nd? Not a chance IMO. Good chance Pike will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadDad Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 This mock draft has only 3 LTs being taken in the first round. One of them is projected at #30. Lately, 4 LTs seem to go in the top 10, let lone round 1. This says to me that if the Bills have a top 5 pick (not an impossibility), they would need to use this pick on a LT, or so it would seem if the pickings are slim at this coveted position. This mock is littered with first round defensive backs, especially safeties. Hopefully Jauron won't be there to continue the Levy/Jauron blueprint for losing. Btw, your work on the draft is always appreciated and I extend my deepest thanks for this. Iagree, thanks Astro for the mock. I also agree with you Bill that we really need to beef up the OL and continue the work that finally began with this past draft. However, if by some miracle Suh is still on the board when we draft we must take him. He could be our next Bruce Smith. OL or DL that must be our priority, then LB and finally QB. We have DB's, we have RB's, we have WR's. We need DL, OL, LB and QB in that order (interchange the DL and OL depending on availability). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 I've done lots of fooling around with our DraftTek 2010 Draft Simulator, and it seems tomake the most sense to pick a DT early in this draft based on the relative strengths of each position. There is a cluster of very good DT's and WR's right where we'll likely pick (#5 to #12) in Round 1. I notified DraftTek that we wanted DT Ndamukong Suh if he was still available at our Mock's pick (he was). In the second round, we'll likely find a cluster of OT's (Ciron Black and Charles Brown, and Maryland's Bruce Campbell) plus some very good QB's (Bradford, Tebow, Locker) and DE's (Selvie, Odrick, Woodden, Oghobaase). I'm of the school that would pick an OT here; the computer picked OT Charles Brown since Black was just picked. The third round has OLB's galore going early (#65-#77). These will include Bruce Carter (likely gone by our pick), Travis Lewis (Oklahoma), A.J. Edds (Iowa), and Justin Cole (more of a 3-4 backer). Sure enough, the simulator picked Travis Lewis OLB for the Bills. Early RD#4 looks like a hodgepodge right now, with teams picking by need. The simulator picked Dan LeFevour QB out of Central Michigan, but QB Clausen was still on the board, as was Dennis Pitta, the TE from BYU (watch him on Saturday), and Cameron Heyward, DE from Ohio State. An emotional pick would be Mike Williams WR Syracuse, picked by Dallas at #112. If you use the Simulator (link) let me know what you think, and how we can improve it for general use. Astro The problem is that your mock wont be remotely close to what will go down come draft time as the landscape of the draft will change a lot between now and then. I dont think Suh will fall to us unless we have a very high pick, which we wont given our weak schedule. I seriously doubt we pick in the top 10...more like 11 to 15 again. That being said, we have much more pressing needs than a DT IMO. Highest priorities should be QB or T before we go DT. I know Stroud is no spring chicken, but him and Williams are more than serviceable compared to having no competent QB at this point (unless Ftiz develops) and a deficit at Tackle. Bell I think still has potential to keep getting better, but as of right now, I dont know if he is gonna cut it. So, as we stand today, T and QB are out two biggest holes to fill. Dont get me wrong, if Sub falls to us, I have no problem with the pick per se, but still I think QB or T should be our first choice if there is someone there worth taking with out pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gus2378 Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 I have to agree with those who pointed out that Bradford and Locker at least will be long gone before the second round unless Bradford can't lift his arm above his head. Tebow MAY be there, but not sure you want to rebuild around him ... I love a lot of what he brings attitude-wise, but I think he is a project as far as an every-down QB in the NFL. He may get there but you need a veteran bridge QB who is still adequate but close to the end like Jake Delhomme or maybe even Hasselback ... someone like Kitna was in Cincy for Palmer, although Tebow may take more than a year. Also, on the off chance (please please please please) that Ralph eats the rest of jauron's contract and brings in a new coach, there is at least a 50-50 chance they switch to the 3-4, which changes the DT and LB targets ... for instance, I love Gerald McCoy but he couldn't anchor a 3-4 line at the nose. The scariest thing that these mocks illustrate is that there are HUGE holes at very important positions and there is no way they fill them in one draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vincec Posted October 24, 2009 Share Posted October 24, 2009 It's too early to know the situation, but we really need to be looking for a LT in the first round UNLESS we pick top 5. Then I would take the best available player available regardless of position. Maybe a CB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Astrobot Posted October 24, 2009 Author Share Posted October 24, 2009 They should grab the best LB in rnd 1 they can get their hands on, whoever that might turn out to be. My point is that there won't be a LB at the spot we end up. If they want a starter at LB they'll get one in FA or in trade. Our mentality has been that we are drafting starters. That's part of the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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