4th-and-1 Revisited (Saints Game)

[Doc]

Ding, Ding, Ding, the real winner. The O was brutal and had they converted, it most likely would have resulted in a 4th and longer punt 3 plays later. Maybe DJ thought they had a better chance of getting a turnover than the O moving the ball consistently...

They might have been better served trying a fake punt for the 1st down.

[mannc]

You're the one who is dead wrong. Name me one time that a coach trailing by 10 points with about half a quarter to play has ever went for it on his own 28. It's moronic. Too much time left. That's a 3-minutes left decision. Just keep being a media lemming and parrot what Sullivan, Simon & the rest of WGR's knuckleheads come up with.

 

You don't watch much football, do you?

[May Day 10]

Just keep being a media lemming and parrot what Sullivan, Simon & the rest of WGR's knuckleheads come up with.

 

i dunno, the entire crowd was pretty irate immediately when Edwards started to run off the field. It was almost unanimous and way before anyone heard what the media had to say. The only person near me who liked the move happened to be wearing a Saints jersey.

[Albany,n.y.]

did anyone watch the pats game? Not sure of the situation, but I know that the Pats were up 16-10 and I believe it was in the 3rd quarter-anyway the Pats were about to go 3 and out, but instead Bellicheat leaves the O on the field and the PATS CONVERT THE 4TH DOWN ON THEIR OWN 30 YARD LINE!

 

Like i said not positive of the situation, but the Pats converted the 4th down on their own 30 yard line up just 6. That is balls and coaching. If you cant get a yard, you dont deserve to win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The big difference is that in all probability, the Patriots had seen something in the films that gave their coaching staff the confidence to go for it on 4th down. Just like the Bills' staff must have seen something that indicated they could succeed on the faked field goal for our only TD. You take risks based on your film study of the opponent. The Bills obviously didn't have the same positive film feedback on a 4th from your own 28 against NO that NE had against ATL. Likewise, NE didn't uncover anything that would have indicated a field goal fake would get them a touchdown. Why don't you question why NE didn't fake a FG for a TD in their game? It's all about game situations, what's on the films etc that let you gameplan accordingly. If you want to blame the Bills staff for anything, then blame them for not devising a 4th & 1 plan (from anywhere on the field) based on studying NO's defense. However, since Gregg was throwing new wrinkles in that had stymied them all game, they were wise not to risk handing NO the game where they had plenty of time to tie with a TD & a late FG, or win with 2 TDs. By giving NO the ball at their own 28, the Bills would have virtually eliminated the option of getting a TD & tying late with a 2 minute drive into FG range.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Simon, I respect your football knowledge but I disagree totally with your take on this issue.

 

From a Pat Kirwin article last year:

 

http://www.nfl.com/news/story?id=09000d5d8...mp;confirm=true

 

The Packers decide to go for it on a fourth-and-1 situation in the second quarter on their own 44-yard line and made it with a 7-yard run by Ryan Grant. The Packers players feel energized by the coaching decision and attribute the aggressive play-calling to their touchdown moments later and the eventual win over the Colts. Coach Mike McCarthy knew the risk was worth it considering the potent Colts offense that was waiting to take the field if the Packers punted instead of going for it.

 

A further breakdown shows that fourth-and-1 has been converted 72 percent of the time and fourth-and-1 to 3 yards has succeeded 64 percent of the time. Those are pretty good odds when you compare it to third down and 1 to 3 yard, which is converted to a first down about 58 percent of the time.

 

From Gregg Easterbrook's column yesterday:

 

Since roughly 75 percent of fourth-and-1 attempts are successful -- on Sunday, 82 percent of fourth-and-1 tries succeeded -- TMQ continues to marvel that NFL and big-college coaches so often launch kicks when only a yard is needed. I continue to think that avoiding criticism is the explanation.

 

The entire article:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story...mp;sportCat=nfl

 

It's entitled "Hooray for Coaches with Courage!" In the article he links to past articles he's done on the exact same subject. Easterbrook's findings are compelling.

 

Jauron was coaching not to lose. He had an opportunity to energize his team and swing momentum. As with the opening kickoff, Jauron deferred.

[Albany,n.y.]

You don't watch much football, do you?

There's a 99% chance I've seen more Bills games both at the Ralph & on TV than you have. Ok, wiseguy-find me just one other time in the NFL where a coach has done what you are advocating-down 10 in the 4th quarter, went for it on 4th & <1 with over 7 minutes left from 28 or worse, got the 1st down & won the game. I can give you at least two games in the past 3 seasons where an opposing coach was down 11 with less than 5 minutes to go & won the game.

[lets_go_bills]

Shoulda went for it.

[Ramius]

You're the one who is dead wrong. Name me one time that a coach trailing by 10 points with about half a quarter to play has ever went for it on his own 28. It's moronic. Too much time left. That's a 3-minutes left decision. Just keep being a media lemming and parrot what Sullivan, Simon & the rest of WGR's knuckleheads come up with.

 

Please tell me how punting the ball away, deflating your team, and giving yourself less time to score twice increases your chances of winning. It doesn't. Down 1 score, you punt. Down 2 scores, you have to go for the extra yard.

 

With 7 minutes left in the game and down scores, you cannot punt the ball away and expect to still get it back twice. At that point you may never ge the ball back again. You can hope that you will get the ball back twice, but the rational and appropriate line of thought is that you have the current possession and 1 more to tie the game.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

By the way, in week two versus Tampa Bay, the Bills went for it on 4th and one yard from their own 36 yard line. This was in the second quarter. Trent Edwards converted for two yards on a quarterback sneak. The Bills ended up scoring a field goal on that drive giving them a 20-7 lead.

[May Day 10]

I believe the case is a little stronger if they are up by 12-16 points and a field goal will definitely end it.

[mannc]

There's a 99% chance I've seen more Bills games both at the Ralph & on TV than you have. Ok, wiseguy-find me just one other time in the NFL where a coach has done what you are advocating-down 10 in the 4th quarter, went for it on 4th & <1 with over 7 minutes left from 28 or worse, got the 1st down & won the game. I can give you at least two games in the past 3 seasons where an opposing coach was down 11 with less than 5 minutes to go & won the game.

 

Well it's obvious that you've watched a lot of Bills games the last 10 years because punting in that situation is exactly what losing coaches like Williams, Mularkey and Jauron always do. I can guarantee that good teams like the Steelers, Patriots and Giants go for it in that situation, especially at home. In fact, they often go for it when the mathematical odds might suggest that they punt, like in the NE-Atlanta game just this past week, when Belichick went for it on fourth and one from his own 24, leading by six points. It's called demonstrating confidence and a winning attitude and it rubs off on the players on the field. Anyone with half a brain who watched the game on Sunday knew that the Bills defense was not about to get a stop at that point in the game and that the game was over as soon as the punter's foot made contact with the football.

[BuffOrange]

As if converting that 4th down would have made a difference in anything? Had it failed, and given the ineptitude of the offense to that point, it was a strong possibility, everyone would have been saying Jauron was an idiot for going for it with the game still close.

 

Wrong.

[Albany,n.y.]

Well it's obvious that you've watched a lot of Bills games the last 10 years because punting in that situation is exactly what losing coaches like Williams, Mularkey and Jauron always do. I can guarantee that good teams like the Steelers, Patriots and Giants go for it in that situation, especially at home. In fact, they often go for it when the mathematical odds might suggest that they punt, like in the NE-Atlanta game just this past week, when Belichick went for it on fourth and one from his own 24, leading by six points. It's called demonstrating confidence and a winning attitude and it rubs off on the players on the field. Anyone with half a brain who watched the game on Sunday knew that the Bills defense was not about to get a stop at that point in the game and that the game was over as soon as the punter's foot made contact with the football.

Then please, please find me just one time you can document that a team did not punt from its own 28 or worse with over 7 minutes left in the game, down less than 2 touchdowns, and got the 1st down & ended up winning. I can find numerous times when a team has won a game down 2 scores with less than 5 minutes left including Monday night's opener in NE where Bellichick kicked off after scoring and when Dallas beat us after being down 11 with just a few minutes remaining.

All I'm asking is one time, come on, if you're so right prove it with something you can document has succeeded.

[Doc]

Wrong.

Wrong on your wrong. If the play failed, no one would have been saying "at least he had the guts to go for it." It would have been considered "the turning point of the game."

 

Personally, while I think converting it probably would have been moot anyway, I think he should have gone for it.

[Fan in San Diego]

You're the one who is dead wrong. Name me one time that a coach trailing by 10 points with about half a quarter to play has ever went for it on his own 28. It's moronic. Too much time left. That's a 3-minutes left decision. Just keep being a media lemming and parrot what Sullivan, Simon & the rest of WGR's knuckleheads come up with.

 

I saw Bill Bellichek do exactly that on Sunday, Saints did it, many teams do it every week when they feel the game is on the line. Going for it was the right thing to do.

[Albany,n.y.]

I saw Bill Bellichek do exactly that on Sunday, Saints did it, many teams do it every week when they feel the game is on the line. Going for it was the right thing to do.

You do it when you're ahead by more than 3 points, not when you're behind by 10 with 7+ minutes to go. So far nobody has met my challenge of just 1 time, same situation where it worked. Many teams have come from behind down two scores with less than 5 minutes to go, but when has one come from behind trailing by 10 (less than 2 TDs) with 7+ minutes to go that went for it on their own 28 or worse. I'm begging for just 1 time for you people to prove your case & all I'm getting are generalities. Just one boys & girls, just one.

[mannc]

You do it when you're ahead by more than 3 points, not when you're behind by 10 with 7+ minutes to go. So far nobody has met my challenge of just 1 time, same situation where it worked. Many teams have come from behind down two scores with less than 5 minutes to go, but when has one come from behind trailing by 10 (less than 2 TDs) with 7+ minutes to go that went for it on their own 28 or worse. I'm begging for just 1 time for you people to prove your case & all I'm getting are generalities. Just one boys & girls, just one.

 

Oh, OK, we'll pore through the play by play of every NFL game played in the past 3 years and try to find a few specific examples to satisfy you and prove what we already know--that the only way on earth the Bills have a chance to win that game is to convert the fourth down, keep their defense off the field, and score some points.

 

Why don't you give us an example of a team that (a) punts from its own 28 yard line (or thereabouts) on fourth and one, (b) while losing by 10 points, © with 7 and half minutes left, (d) at home, (e) against the best offensive team in the NFL (which had driven the length of the field for a TD on the previous possession), (f) gets a defensive 3-and-out and (g) goes on to score two more times to win or tie the game? (I would have added, "with Trent Edwards at QB" but that would be overkill.)

[Ramius]

Then please, please find me just one time you can document that a team did not punt from its own 28 or worse with over 7 minutes left in the game, down less than 2 touchdowns, and got the 1st down & ended up winning. I can find numerous times when a team has won a game down 2 scores with less than 5 minutes left including Monday night's opener in NE where Bellichick kicked off after scoring and when Dallas beat us after being down 11 with just a few minutes remaining.

All I'm asking is one time, come on, if you're so right prove it with something you can document has succeeded.

 

To further poke a hole in your fallacy, all of your "examples" involve the team that was trailing both a) having the ball, and b) scoring to cut it to a 1 score game before "kicking it away."

 

On that monday night, after we went up 24-13, i guarantee and would bet anything that if belichick faced a 4th down on the drive (before the fumble), he would have gone for it. When you are down by multiple scores late in the game, you cannot afford to give away possessions. That is simply waving the white flag.

[Magox]

It's easy to second guess in hindsight, having said that, I thought we should of gone for it. 7 minutes left, and we're down two scores, and we have 1 yard to go for a first down, going up against an explosive offense that was clearly gaining momentum against our tiring defense.

 

I would of went for it.

[May Day 10]

It's easy to second guess in hindsight.

 

 

like I said previously though. The crowd was pretty loud and irate when Edwards ran off the field. People then immediately headed for the exits in droves before the punt was even off. It was a lot more than the crowd trying to 'convince' the HC to go for it... people were pissed, and many knew at that moment, the game was over.