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4th-and-1 Revisited (Saints Game)


MRM33064

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Absolutely shameful. Please relieve him of his duties Ralph.

At the risk of sounding utterly redundant, DJ is just parroting the boss. RW might have 6 minutes of life left and he's still too careful to bet big, why would jauron bet big with minutes left in one game?

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It is difficult to think how Jauron (or whoever is making the decision) looks at that situation and thinks that he is maximizing our chance to win the game by punting.

 

By punting, we voluntarily concede two of the metrics we need the most - time and possession - absent a fumble on the punt reception.

 

Even had we failed on 4th-and-1 (an unlikely event if you buy into historical data), the defense would've still had the opportunity to hold NO to a FG, keeping it a 2 score game.

 

 

It was a point of time left on the clock and points behind. A balance of the situation needed to be properly taken into account. Jauran (I don't know how) failed to figure that:

 

1. Our Defense was tired as hell.

 

2. If our O didn't convert on this 4th and 1 (or half yard) then when? (when we have less time to score?)

 

3. NO was starting to move the ball. Keep them off the field. When we are in a position like this time is our enemy. So pull out all the stops. Punting in this situation (as another poster stated) is like putting up the white flag. Our team responded accordingly.

 

Always going to be a Loyal Bills Fan.

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I thought that scared, passive play showed the Bills and the fans that the Bills will continue to be losers. I am a coach myself (basketball) and I felt like it was an easy decision, the D played their butts off. They were dead tired, and could not remain on the field. If you don't get the first down the game is over, if you punt and show no confidence in your offense the game is over. Either way, the head coach lost this game and this sent a terrible message to the team that they were in capable of winning this game and he (the head coach) was just happy with not getting blown out. Although one week does not make a season, but with the way the Bills lost this game may be worse than the loss to New England.

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Really?

 

What has HE done that you think was better than in the past? AVP seems to be calling plays much better than Shonert did; it'll be interesting to see if he still looks better when people start to learn his tendencies. I'll agree that getting rid of Shonert was a good move, I won't agree that making that move 10 days before the season was even remotely ideal.

 

Dick still seems to go extremely conservative when the 4th quarter rolls around, and the team doesn't seem to adjust well after the half.

 

I don't expect to see him gone until probably after next season, but I'd love to see him get canned at the bye week.

 

As for the topic of this thread, I think the odds were greater that the team would get stuffed on 4th down than make it (I'd have expected ~40% chance of picking up the 1st), but I still would have preferred to see the Bills go for it there because they needed 2 scores (minimum) at that point and if they punted in a (realistic) best case scenario they'd have the ball back in the same spot 1-2 minutes later. Pick up the 1st down and maybe you get some momentum behind you. Punt it away and you are going for the slow death. Fail to pick up the 1st and it's a quick death, but at that point I'd have risked the 60% chance of the quick death for the near certainty that the punt would end with the same result.

 

He put AVP in position to be the OC.

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Just proves that you're a little slow on the uptake Simon. Why Kick and play to get the ball back when YOU HAVE THE BALL and you are DOWN BY 10 POINTS? Pick up the yard and march! Terrible decision by a terrible coach and you are a fool for agreeing. I wonder how long this post will stay up before you sensor it. :censored:

Agreed! All Trentative Checkwards had to do is lean forward and get the first down . This team gave up both Offensively and Defensively. And I guess Simon forgot that N.O. just got rolling and scored to make it 17-7 . Good idea Simon give the ball back to the hot team ...it worked out well for us , didn't it? :doh:

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BTW - as nauseating as it was - today Bellicheat went for a 4th deep in his own territory with the game still up for grabs - smelled of desperation at every level but of course they made it and then rolled after they made it.....

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I thought that scared, passive play showed the Bills and the fans that the Bills will continue to be losers. I am a coach myself (basketball) and I felt like it was an easy decision, the D played their butts off. They were dead tired, and could not remain on the field. If you don't get the first down the game is over, if you punt and show no confidence in your offense the game is over. Either way, the head coach lost this game and this sent a terrible message to the team that they were in capable of winning this game and he (the head coach) was just happy with not getting blown out. Although one week does not make a season, but with the way the Bills lost this game may be worse than the loss to New England.

 

 

I think so too. This was a harder loss than at NE. At NE we tried our best. Here against NO, our HC just gave up. Very demoralizing.

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Last week's 4th-and-1 thread was pretty active - this one has just a wee bit potential as well.

 

The situation: 4-and-1, down by 10, less than 8 mins to go, ball on own 28.

 

Thoughts?

 

Wasn't it 20-7 at that point? Either way, of course you go for it. My God, even if they made the first down, went all the way down and scored the TD, to make 20 or 17-14, no way would I kick off either. I would on-sides kick and hope to get the ball back, even if there was still over 5 minutes left in the game. Why? Obviously, as the Saints proved after the stupid punt, the Bills' defense had done way more then anyone ever expected holding them down to 17 or 20 points at the time of that punt with under 8 mintues left in the game. The entire Bills nation knew there was no way they could hold on with the game on the line enough to make them go three and out. Maybe DJ was shocked that the Saints scored two more times, but nobody else watching the feakin' game was!!

 

Of course you go for it. And of course DJ punted. And here we go again heading for another lousy losing season while Jauron explains away each loss, like only he can. Please Ralph, if he figures out a game plan to lose next week at 0-3-0 Miami, please fire him before the 5th game. We can only dream.

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IMO, the critical, last ditch chance in the game to grab back momentum and give that hard-working D a chance to breath.

 

I will not understand the logistics in Jauron's Yale educated brain there, as to default to the NFL's hottest offense just finding its stride in the closing minutes of the game where your defense has been given it their all and are beat to shiite, reeks of incompetence.

 

I hesistate to say that the game hinged on this play/ decision, but I think the collective wind of hope was stricken from the players proverbial sails with this lame choice.

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He put AVP in position to be the OC.

Yes, he did. Do you have anything else he's done better than in the past?

 

I already agreed that getting rid of Shonert was a good thing.

 

How in the world did it take DJ until after all of last year AND FIVE preseason games to figure that one out? The man appears to be unable to make a hard decision in anything resembling a reasonable time frame.

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Just out of curiosity - did anyone spot Trent (or anyone else on the offense) arguing/fighting with the coaching staff to go for it there?

 

I'd like to think that there'd be a QB and an entire offensive line insisting on going for it there, fighting to stay alive by gaining 1 yard with time running low.

 

It's the job of the coach to rationally make the final decision, but it'd be nice to see some competitive spirit for that coach to have to manage. I hope that this overriding sense of risk aversion doesn't seep too far into these young OL of ours.

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he's pulled this crap time after time, year after year at crunch time. i am 100% convinced this team will never go anywhere with Jauron as coach. never said that before, but today when he punted on 4th and less than 1, down 2 scores with something like 7 mins to go to a high powered offense that was starting to move on our defense, it became crystal clear to me this man will never learn. he's what you call bush - league. he's a high school coach, nothing more. it's all very futile with jauron as head coach.

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Yes, he did. Do you have anything else he's done better than in the past?

 

I already agreed that getting rid of Shonert was a good thing.

 

How in the world did it take DJ until after all of last year AND FIVE preseason games to figure that one out? The man appears to be unable to make a hard decision in anything resembling a reasonable time frame.

 

 

Putting AVP in as OC is the biggest factor. And also intangibles shown by how the players have acted and played during the first two games. I'm not privy to what exactly he's done, but he did something right. Our players played quite well during the first two games. (with the exception of McKelvin's fumble). I never said he coached the team "great". I said he coached the team a lot better than in the past. Which i think he did. But today he showed his flaws in the most dramatic way. An obvious blunder in huge proportions. I hope you're not trying to be nit-picky. I'm just trying to be constructive in dialog. We can agree to disagree.

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he's pulled this crap time after time, year after year at crunch time. i am 100% convinced this team will never go anywhere with Jauron as coach. never said that before, but today when he punted on 4th and less than 1, down 2 scores with something like 7 mins to go to a high powered offense that was starting to move on our defense, it became crystal clear to me this man will never learn. he's what you call bush - league. he's a high school coach, nothing more. it's all very futile with jauron as head coach.

 

 

I think today's call might have been the final straw too. I hope he proves me wrong this season. But we'll see. I really do hope he proves me wrong.

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Can someone please dial in on or explain to me why the offense won't go deep with Owens and Evans? Maybe I can't see it from my TV - but why not let the other team take them out of the equation instead of our beloved bills? I know you don't want to force the ball but these two are our bread and butter we must get them the ball and often.

 

Doesn't Jauron see that as important? What will he say next, "now that Lynch is in the lineup we have more weapons" we don't use the weapons we have effectively. Had I know the TE position was going to play such a big part we should have gotten Tony Gonzalez.

 

Again, the real issue is DJ and his game calling - is must stress win today.

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Putting AVP in as OC is the biggest factor. And also intangibles shown by how the players have acted and played during the first two games. I'm not privy to what exactly he's done, but he did something right. Our players played quite well during the first two games. (with the exception of McKelvin's fumble). I never said he coached the team "great". I said he coached the team a lot better than in the past. Which i think he did. But today he showed his flaws in the most dramatic way. An obvious blunder in huge proportions. I hope you're not trying to be nit-picky. I'm just trying to be constructive in dialog. We can agree to disagree.

I think we will have to, as neither will convince the other. Which is fine.

 

I will agree that Jauron has a better staff of assistants this year than in the past, but I am not certain how much of that falls into the "blind squirrel / nut" category.

 

When it comes time for a critical non-delegatable decision to be made, I haven't seen any improvements in what DJ is doing this year relative to years past. I think he comes up will reasonable game plans / strategies heading into games. I haven't seen any ability on his part to make changes to his philosophy / strategy on the fly, presumably due to his overly conservative nature which is exhibited in almost every major decision he has to make.

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