Play-by-play analysis of the first drive

[Rubes]

What the hell, I'm bored, nothing good on TV, and the wife is out.

 

1st/10 - Pass for 10

Quick pass to the receiver off the line of scrimmage, which was essentially a WR screen pass. McKelvin, covering the target receiver, was 8-10 yards off the LOS (why?). McGee, covering the other WR on the same side (coming in motion), is blocked out of the play. The left guard and tackle release off the line and get out in front of the receiver to block, so with the other WR there were three guys out in front of the target WR -- one blocking McGee, the LT blocking McKelvin way downfield, and the LG blocking Mitchell, the next closest man available. The best part of the play for the defense is that McGee, while being blocked, forced the runner inside, where the tackle was made by Schobel, who ran all the way back from the LOS. Nice hustle by Schobel, otherwise this play might have gone for many more yards. Not exactly sure how you would defend this play. Well designed and executed.

 

1st/10 - Run for minus-3

This play is essentially made by Ellison, of all people. He charges the outside and takes on the RT well into the backfield, slowing the RB and forcing him inside into the charging Scott and Poz. Pretty much everybody did a nice job on that play and beat their man, including Williams and Mitchell. Scott was actually lined up at the line of scrimmage to cover the TE, but the TE blocked down inside on Kelsay, taking him out of the play. Scott was then blocked by the nearby WR, who Scott basically tossed aside to take out the running lane. Poz and Mitchell made nice reads and attacked the play.

 

2nd/13 - Pass for 12

Collins takes a three-step drop and throws a quick pass to the left flank to the TE, so there is no chance for the pass rush to impact anything. FWIW, the Bills rushed four, and nobody appeared to be doing much. The TE runs a three-yard out pattern and is uncovered off the line; Ellison is covering that side but initially backs up into a zone before reacting. McKelvin drops his WR coverage when the pass is caught, but fails to force the TE back inside to Ellison. Instead, the TE gets outside of him, and McKelvin can't make the tackle, which would have limited the play to a 5-6 yard gain. Ellison has to run a long way to get outside to the runner, forcing him out of bounds. This one essentially comes down to the TE (Crumpler) vs. McKelvin. That's a big guy for Leodis to bring down by himself, but that's why he gets paid the big bucks. It also looked like McKelvin hesitated for an instant as he switched from the WR to the TE, which was probably the difference in allowing the TE to get outside of him instead of forcing him back inside. Another well-designed play as it isolated the TE against a much smaller DB, but Crumpler did a nice job getting to the outside to make the play.

 

3rd/1 - Pass for 14

Play-action pass, two men in the backfield. Bills have five defensive linemen in, with Denney in for Schobel, along with Williams, Johnson, Stroud (yes, 3 DTs), and Kelsay. Kelsay is actually lined up as a LB in an upright stance, over the TE, and he plays like a LB, dropping back to cover the TE who releases off the line. By the time he realizes it, though, he's well behind the TE on his pattern. Bills rush five by blitzing Poz up the middle. This play succeeds mainly because Denney, who is left one-on-one with a tiny RB, gets taken out by a block to the knees. Good technique by the RB, but Denney has to beat this guy. It also suceeds because Mitchell, who picks up the TE as he crosses over the middle, gets taken out by the referee on a nice "pick" play. Whitner makes little effort to take on the TE (Crumpler) downfield and basically gives him a little shoulder brush while Kelsay and Ellison stop him after a nice gain.

 

1st/10 - Pass incomplete

Collins takes a five-step drop and releases quickly, so the pass rush is mostly negated. Bills rush four, with Denney still in for Schobel. Only Williams gets some penetration, which may have impacted Collins throw, but tough to tell. This is the ball thrown right into Poz's hands, but he drops it for some unknown reason. As someone else pointed out, if he had caught it, I believe the chances are very good that he takes it back for 7. Nobody from TEN ran a route in the left flat -- one back went over the middle, the other went to the right flat, and Poz had both Mitchell and Ellison in position to block for him while catching the INT in full stride. Probably only Collins would have had a chance to stop him, but I'm sure the sight of Mitchell and Ellison would have made him think otherwise. Oh so close.

 

2nd/10 - Run for no gain

TEN has two TE and one back. Bills in base defense, with Schobel back in for Denney. Run starts to the left, then cuts back to the right. Williams gets blocked well out of the play, and Schobel does nothing but watch. Stroud gets stoned on the play by a single blocker. Kelsay swings outside, well out of the play. Why does this play get stopped? The main reason is because of Williams. Williams gets double teamed at first by the C and LG, but the LG is supposed to release and block Poz up the middle. But, the LG can't release to get to Poz because Williams gets pushed too far back into him by the C (alternatively, you could say Poz was fast enough to get past the block). Kelsay does a nice job of sticking with the play, coming back to help Poz make the tackle. Ellison gets blocked by the RT but also does a nice job holding his ground.

 

3rd/10 - Pass incomplete

Shotgun, three receivers. Bills rush the usual four; Ellison is removed for the extra DB (as opposed to Mitchell). Kelsay and Schobel swing wide, and are never a threat. Stroud is double teamed (sort of), and goes nowhere. Williams does a decent job slipping past his blocker, putting a wee bit of pressure on Collins, and seems to interrupt his follow-through some. The pass is overthrown, maybe because of this. Coverage is by Florence, who would have had to make the one-on-one tackle to prevent the first down. For those of you interested, the Bills DBs were playing bump-and-run coverage right up at the line.

 

So there you have it...four good plays by the defense (minus-3 yards rushing), three bad plays (3 of 5 passing for 36 yards). Can't really say much from one series, but Poz looked very good overall, and Ellison actually fared well also. I'm struck by how important it is for every player to win their one-on-one battles. I'm not encouraged by our defensive line, but Williams did have some decent plays and seemed like the only effective lineman. It doesn't look to be much different than last year, though. Will Maybin make a difference? I hope so. Certainly couldn't do that much worse than Kelsay, who seems like a non-factor most of the time.

[The Big Cat]

Very nice!

 

I trust the coaching staff is keeping all the interesting stuff under wraps throughout our epically long preseason going into the opener against a division rival. So, if they can have more good plays than bad playing vanilla, then <<shrug>>.

[Phlegm Alley]

Great post and thanks for taking the time to do this.

 

I wonder how the emotions would have swung here at TBD had Poz come up with that interception and taken it back for 6.

[Bills#23Iowa]

If Poz would have caught that INT he was going for 6, and that would of changed alot of fans view of the game.

[zazie]

What the hell, I'm bored, nothing good on TV, and the wife is out.

 

1st/10 - Pass for 10

Quick pass to the receiver off the line of scrimmage, which was essentially a WR screen pass. McKelvin, covering the target receiver, was 8-10 yards off the LOS (why?). McGee, covering the other WR on the same side (coming in motion), is blocked out of the play. The left guard and tackle release off the line and get out in front of the receiver to block, so with the other WR there were three guys out in front of the target WR -- one blocking McGee, the LT blocking McKelvin way downfield, and the LG blocking Mitchell, the next closest man available. The best part of the play for the defense is that McGee, while being blocked, forced the runner inside, where the tackle was made by Schobel, who ran all the way back from the LOS. Nice hustle by Schobel, otherwise this play might have gone for many more yards. Not exactly sure how you would defend this play. Well designed and executed.

 

1st/10 - Run for minus-3

This play is essentially made by Ellison, of all people. He charges the outside and takes on the RT well into the backfield, slowing the RB and forcing him inside into the charging Scott and Poz. Pretty much everybody did a nice job on that play and beat their man, including Williams and Mitchell. Scott was actually lined up at the line of scrimmage to cover the TE, but the TE blocked down inside on Kelsay, taking him out of the play. Scott was then blocked by the nearby WR, who Scott basically tossed aside to take out the running lane. Poz and Mitchell made nice reads and attacked the play.

 

2nd/13 - Pass for 12

Collins takes a three-step drop and throws a quick pass to the left flank to the TE, so there is no chance for the pass rush to impact anything. FWIW, the Bills rushed four, and nobody appeared to be doing much. The TE runs a three-yard out pattern and is uncovered off the line; Ellison is covering that side but initially backs up into a zone before reacting. McKelvin drops his WR coverage when the pass is caught, but fails to force the TE back inside to Ellison. Instead, the TE gets outside of him, and McKelvin can't make the tackle, which would have limited the play to a 5-6 yard gain. Ellison has to run a long way to get outside to the runner, forcing him out of bounds. This one essentially comes down to the TE (Crumpler) vs. McKelvin. That's a big guy for Leodis to bring down by himself, but that's why he gets paid the big bucks. It also looked like McKelvin hesitated for an instant as he switched from the WR to the TE, which was probably the difference in allowing the TE to get outside of him instead of forcing him back inside. Another well-designed play as it isolated the TE against a much smaller DB, but Crumpler did a nice job getting to the outside to make the play.

 

3rd/1 - Pass for 14

Play-action pass, two men in the backfield. Bills have five defensive linemen in, with Denney in for Schobel, along with Williams, Johnson, Stroud (yes, 3 DTs), and Kelsay. Kelsay is actually lined up as a LB in an upright stance, over the TE, and he plays like a LB, dropping back to cover the TE who releases off the line. By the time he realizes it, though, he's well behind the TE on his pattern. Bills rush five by blitzing Poz up the middle. This play succeeds mainly because Denney, who is left one-on-one with a tiny RB, gets taken out by a block to the knees. Good technique by the RB, but Denney has to beat this guy. It also suceeds because Mitchell, who picks up the TE as he crosses over the middle, gets taken out by the referee on a nice "pick" play. Whitner makes little effort to take on the TE (Crumpler) downfield and basically gives him a little shoulder brush while Kelsay and Ellison stop him after a nice gain.

 

1st/10 - Pass incomplete

Collins takes a five-step drop and releases quickly, so the pass rush is mostly negated. Bills rush four, with Denney still in for Schobel. Only Williams gets some penetration, which may have impacted Collins throw, but tough to tell. This is the ball thrown right into Poz's hands, but he drops it for some unknown reason. As someone else pointed out, if he had caught it, I believe the chances are very good that he takes it back for 7. Nobody from TEN ran a route in the left flat -- one back went over the middle, the other went to the right flat, and Poz had both Mitchell and Ellison in position to block for him while catching the INT in full stride. Probably only Collins would have had a chance to stop him, but I'm sure the sight of Mitchell and Ellison would have made him think otherwise. Oh so close.

 

2nd/10 - Run for no gain

TEN has two TE and one back. Bills in base defense, with Schobel back in for Denney. Run starts to the left, then cuts back to the right. Williams gets blocked well out of the play, and Schobel does nothing but watch. Stroud gets stoned on the play by a single blocker. Kelsay swings outside, well out of the play. Why does this play get stopped? The main reason is because of Williams. Williams gets double teamed at first by the C and LG, but the LG is supposed to release and block Poz up the middle. But, the LG can't release to get to Poz because Williams gets pushed too far back into him by the C (alternatively, you could say Poz was fast enough to get past the block). Kelsay does a nice job of sticking with the play, coming back to help Poz make the tackle. Ellison gets blocked by the RT but also does a nice job holding his ground.

 

3rd/10 - Pass incomplete

Shotgun, three receivers. Bills rush the usual four; Ellison is removed for the extra DB (as opposed to Mitchell). Kelsay and Schobel swing wide, and are never a threat. Stroud is double teamed (sort of), and goes nowhere. Williams does a decent job slipping past his blocker, putting a wee bit of pressure on Collins, and seems to interrupt his follow-through some. The pass is overthrown, maybe because of this. Coverage is by Florence, who would have had to make the one-on-one tackle to prevent the first down. For those of you interested, the Bills DBs were playing bump-and-run coverage right up at the line.

 

So there you have it...four good plays by the defense (minus-3 yards rushing), three bad plays (3 of 5 passing for 36 yards). Can't really say much from one series, but Poz looked very good overall, and Ellison actually fared well also. I'm struck by how important it is for every player to win their one-on-one battles. I'm not encouraged by our defensive line, but Williams did have some decent plays and seemed like the only effective lineman. It doesn't look to be much different than last year, though. Will Maybin make a difference? I hope so. Certainly couldn't do that much worse than Kelsay, who seems like a non-factor most of the time.

 

 

Why DO we always play the corners so far off the LOS? Is that part of the cover 2 strategy? Just seems dumb to me, we shopuld be jamming wrs at the line like most teams. Can someone explain the rationale here?

 

Thanks mb

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Thanks for a great breakdown Rubes. I love this stuff.

 

IMO, the pass that Poz dropped was a rifle shot at short range. If you watch the play, Collins really winds up before his release. It was definitely a miscom because as you pointed out there was no receiver in the vicinity. I thought that if Poz held onto it, it would have been a spectacular interception. JMO.

[DazedandConfused]

You ask the right question at the end which is to wonder how Maybin fits in and ask will his talents make a difference. Particularly on the 3rd and 1 play the evil folks completed for a gain of 14, I could see Maybin either taking the role Kelsay had lining up as an LB and either pass covering the TE (despite his rushing chops a role he played some in college) or more likely having him play the Denney role where the successful chop block on him was a key to completing the pass.

 

I know some folks will react with simple anger at Maybin for not signing, and just want to right him off. However, even if you want to consign him to football purgatory and question his on field skills die to this off-field issue, one has to recognize that the is a likely upgrade over Kelsay playing the LB role or over Denney as a passrusher.

 

As with most players the question is not simply whether he is good but whether he is better than what we got at a particular role in the scheme and also how good is our plan B if he cannot play.

[Peevo]

To the question about DB's playing off on the receivers at the line, I do think this is part of the Cover 2 scheme. Am I a professional football coach? Of course not. But I do believe this is one of the biggest issues with Fewell's defense.

 

Keep in mind, I'm taking into consideration Fewell and Jauron's body of work with the Bills, not just one preseason game. This has happened consistently throughout their tenure here.

 

We have DE's covering receivers or RB's and constantly get burned. They simply have NO answer for the simple 4 yard dump off that goes for 12 yards EVERY TIME. It's completely frustrating. The entire Patriots offense is predicated on horizontal passing. Screens, dump offs, and the like. We HAVE to find a way to contain it, and I don't think this version of the 4-3 can answer it. It is fatally flawed.

[Kelly the Dog]

Great post, Rubes.

 

My recollection (after watching it 2-3 times) of the 2-13 play for 12 yards was that it was Ellison's fault for taking that too deep drop when it seemed to be an obvious short pass right in front of him well before he stopped backtracking. By then he was way out of position to get over quickly and make the play. I thought that if he recognized the play quicker, which he should have, it would have been a 5 yard gain and not 12.

[The Big Cat]

Why DO we always play the corners so far off the LOS? Is that part of the cover 2 strategy? Just seems dumb to me, we shopuld be jamming wrs at the line like most teams. Can someone explain the rationale here?

 

Thanks mb

 

For those of you interested, the Bills DBs were playing bump-and-run coverage right up at the line.

 

Now sit down before you fall down, zazercise.

[stuckincincy]

Great post, Rubes.

 

My recollection (after watching it 2-3 times) of the 2-13 play for 12 yards was that it was Ellison's fault for taking that too deep drop when it seemed to be an obvious short pass right in front of him well before he stopped backtracking. By then he was way out of position to get over quickly and make the play. I thought that if he recognized the play quicker, which he should have, it would have been a 5 yard gain and not 12.

 

I saw 4 players lined up left to right 3 yards behind the (so-called) DL - often.

 

AKC was right.

[reddogblitz]

Why DO we always play the corners so far off the LOS? Is that part of the cover 2 strategy? Just seems dumb to me, we shopuld be jamming wrs at the line like most teams. Can someone explain the rationale here?

It's Dead Eye Dick's philosophy and thus Perry's too. Don't give up the big play. Bend but don't break. Keep everything in front of you. It's hard to win in the NFL. You like to win (new one I picked up from post game interview).

[Rubes]

Thanks for a great breakdown Rubes. I love this stuff.

 

IMO, the pass that Poz dropped was a rifle shot at short range. If you watch the play, Collins really winds up before his release. It was definitely a miscom because as you pointed out there was no receiver in the vicinity. I thought that if Poz held onto it, it would have been a spectacular interception. JMO.

 

No problemo, it was fun.

 

The near-interception was actually not a miscommunication; there was a receiver breaking inside behind where Poz was, clearly the intended receiver. My guess is that it was a poor throw because of just enough pressure by Williams. But that receiver wouldn't have had a chance to catch Poz based on the way the route was going.

 

 

Great post, Rubes.

 

My recollection (after watching it 2-3 times) of the 2-13 play for 12 yards was that it was Ellison's fault for taking that too deep drop when it seemed to be an obvious short pass right in front of him well before he stopped backtracking. By then he was way out of position to get over quickly and make the play. I thought that if he recognized the play quicker, which he should have, it would have been a 5 yard gain and not 12.

 

I initially thought it was Ellison's fault, too, but after watching it a few times, I don't think so as much. He was already lined up fairly deep, and he only took a step back towards what looked like a zone assignment, and then immediately adjusted when he saw the TE break into the shallow flat. I wouldn't expect Ellison to charge forward toward the TE right off the snap, as this would probably put him in a bad position if the route was deeper.

 

My sense is that the play was designed to get the TE into a dead spot in the shallow zone and to have him take it outside, getting him away from the OLB on that side (Ellison). The defensive alignment is designed to leave the zone in the flat uncovered, but it's then up to McKelvin to prevent the receiver from getting outside and allowing Ellison to make the play.

 

I actually think the play would have worked even better if Collins had waited a second or two longer to throw it, which would have forced McKelvin further down the field covering the WR and leaving the TE completely alone with more room to rumble.

[SDS]

Great post and thanks for taking the time to do this.

 

I wonder how the emotions would have swung here at TBD had Poz come up with that interception and taken it back for 6.

 

ahhh... but he didn't did he?

 

and that's the rub. What percentage of games come down to "if so and so would have done X..."? Most of them... Figure the average point spread is what 3-4 points...

 

The Buffalo Bills... almost making big plays since 1999!

[C.Biscuit97]

Very nice!

 

I trust the coaching staff is keeping all the interesting stuff under wraps throughout our epically long preseason going into the opener against a division rival. So, if they can have more good plays than bad playing vanilla, then <<shrug>>.

 

We also play the Titans in the regular season as well. It doesn't nothing to show them a bunch of different looks in a extra meaningless game. And for great as a coach Fisher is and how great that play was, I don't know why he showed us that fake punt. Bobby April will have his unit especially ready for the rematch.

[Acantha]

Thanks Rubes! I ran the first two drives again last night and focused specifically on Ellison the whole time (just curious to see how bad he really is). Fact is, he played a pretty good game. There were two plays that I thought he was out of position on (including the 2-12 play - I agree with Kelly that his reaction to the play was slow), but outside of that he was hitting his assignments and was always running to the ball. On White's TD run, he did a an excellent job pushing through a block and plugging the whole on his side. Poz wasn't able to shed his in time, and the TD went that way.

 

He obviously has a history of bad play, but I saw a lot of crap written about him after this game too, and he didn't deserve it.

 

BTW, I noiticed it during the game and was hoping that stop on 3rd and 10 with all of the DB's crowding the line would have an impact on DJ. See, Dick? You CAN be aggressive!

[CodeMonkey]

The Buffalo Bills... almost making big plays since 1999!

 

Classic And if that is your woman in your avatar you are a lucky man indeed!

[Mickey]

Why DO we always play the corners so far off the LOS? Is that part of the cover 2 strategy? Just seems dumb to me, we shopuld be jamming wrs at the line like most teams. Can someone explain the rationale here?

 

Thanks mb

I beleive those were downs we were playing run first, with the SS cheating up so the CB's don't have as much help deep. So they don't play press coverage, quite the opposite. They keep the WR in front of them and hope to close in time.

 

What bothered me about the defense that game, and last year for that matter, is how often we have lineman covering a back or a TE. I know why they try it now and then as it is nothing new but I think this kind of thing isn't as successful in the current game as it was back in the day.