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MOCK DRAFT: Mel Kiper's new First-Round Projection | March 13

 

1. Oakland - JaMarcus Russell, QB, LSU: Nothing changes at the top of the draft board. The Raiders passed on Leinart and Cutler last year, so opting away from another highly regarded signal caller won't happen this time around. Russell's physical prowess seems to have everyone "wowed" over.

 

2. Detroit - Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame: The Lions have the option of selecting QB Brady Quinn, RB Adrian Peterson, trading down, or adding a pass rusher supreme like Gaines Adams to bolster what already has the makings of a standout defensive front with the Lions. By trading down, they could still get a player like Adams. Quinn though, may be too hard to pass up for an organization that needs a smart, tough, high profile signal caller like Quinn to become the face of the franchise. Remember, the Lions are one of the few teams that have never even been to a Super Bowl, let alone winning one. Additionally, they passed on Dan Marino back in 1983 and as recently as last year, opted away from Matt Leinart and Jay Cutler.

 

3. Cleveland - Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma: You would figure this choice to be between Peterson and Brady Quinn, depending upon whether the latter is still on the board. Both would look great in a Browns uniform. Veteran RB Jamal Lewis was only signed to a one-year deal, so this obviously doesn't preclude them from taking a potential franchise back like Peterson.

 

4. Tampa Bay - Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech: This pick will have both Jeff Garcia and Chris Simms smiling. Johnson is my top ranked player on the Big Board, so acquiring him with the fourth selection is a real bargain.

 

5. Arizona - Joe Thomas, OT, Wisconsin: Things are setting up perfectly for the Cardinals to remain at pick No. 5 and still bring a super blue chip left tackle like Thomas into the fold. Here, they get the No. 2 player on my big board with the fifth overall selection. Another great value type pick.

 

6. Washington - Gaines Adams, DE, Clemson: This is the spot you figure to get some action. The Redskins currently don't have a second, third, or fourth round pick, so trading down in an effort to recoup choices has to definitely be in their thought process. If a deal is to be made, the best scenario would be to have either Quinn or Peterson still on the board. Both would be enticing for a number of clubs, as would higly regarded DB's Leon Hall and LaRon Landry. If the Redskins are forced to stand pat, DE's Gaines Adams and Jamaal Anderson would make the most sense.

 

7. Minnesota - LaRon Landry, S, LSU: The Vikings will have an opportunity here to upgrade the defensive secondary. The choice would be between safety LaRon Landry and CB Leon Hall. I'll go with Landry, since Brad Childress saw what a huge difference Brian Dawkins made to the Eagles deep patrol when he was on the staff with Andy Reid in Philadelphia.

 

8. Houston - Leon Hall, CB, Michigan: LT Levi Brown would have to draw serious consideration, but Hall is definitely on the rise back up the draft board after such an impressive showing at the Combine Workout. He also fills a positional need area for the Texans.

 

9. Miami - Levi Brown, OT, Penn St.: The Dolphins could certainly use a top flight left tackle, and Brown has the potential to become a top echelon NFL bookend.

 

10. Atlanta - Jamaal Anderson, DE, Arkansas: The loss of Patrick Kerney in free agency makes this a need area, but the Falcons should be keeping their fingers crossed that either CB Leon Hall or S LaRon Landry is still on the board.

 

11. San Francisco - Dwayne Jarrett, WR, USC: The Niners need a featured wide-out for Alex Smith to throw to, and Jarrett proved against Michigan in the Rose Bowl that he is deserving of such a high grade.

 

12. Buffalo - Amobi Okoye, DT, Louisville: I view Okoye as one of the top seven to eight players in this draft, so acquiring him at the 12th spot would be a great deal for the Bills. The 19-year-old phenom has been rising steadily up the draft board all year, overtaking Michigan's Alan Branch as the No. 1 DT in this draft because of his production with the pads on. With the trade of Willis McGahee to Baltimore, the Bills are also in the market for a RB. They probably can't deal up high enough to get Peterson, so Cal's Marshawn Lynch would have to be a possibility.

 

13. St. Louis - Alan Branch, DT, Michigan: Phyically imposing DT who could be a destructive performer in the NFL, provided he learns how to maximize all that ability and become a more consistent force along the interior. Branch has the edge at DT in terms of potential, but Okoye gets the nod when it comes to production.

 

14. Carolina - Greg Olsen, TE, Miami (Fla): Several months ago I had Olsen going to the Bears near the end of the first round. After a sensational effort at the Combine Workout, he's soared up the draft board to the point where Carolina and Green Bay have to be interested. The Panthers need a TE of Olsen's caliber.

 

15. Pittsburgh - Lawrence Timmons, LB, Florida St.: The Steelers are looking for flexibility at OLB in terms of how that player can be utilized. Timmons can operate with his hand down or on his feet, figuring to operate effectively in any defensive structure.

 

16. Green Bay - Marshawn Lynch, RB, California: Now that Ahman Green has moved on in free agency, the Packers have to bring in a top notch RB. Lynch is one of the more aggressive RB's you will ever come across, with yards after contact his specialty. He also proved to be a much more effective pass catching option this past season, with his 34 receptions matching his total for the previous two campaigns.

 

17. Jacksonville - Ted Ginn, Jr. WR, Ohio St.: The temptation will be to go defense, since the Jags have addressed the offensive side on round one each of the last four years. That's why I thought seriously about CB Chris Houston and LB Jon Beason at this spot. In the end though, a player with Ginn's big-play potential, both at WR and in the return game, may be too hard to pass up.

 

18. Cincinnati - Jon Beason, LB, Miami (Fla): Beason didn't run as well as expected (4.74) at the Combine Workout, but his film evaluation grades, especially from 2005, figures to win out, placing him ultimately in the mid-late first round area. Marvin Lewis also knows first hand what it means to have a former Miami Hurricane setting the tone on your defense.

 

19. Tennessee - Adam Carriker, DE, Nebraska: Steady, technically sound, and extremely versatile, Carriker would qualify as a very "safe" pick at this juncture of round one.

 

20. New York Giants - Paul Posluszny, LB, Penn St.: A Tom Coughlin type of prospect, with the passion and desire to excel on the gridiron that spills over to his teammates. If you look solely at his junior film from 2005 (116 tackles, 11 stops behind the line) and the Combine Workout (4.70 at 238 pounds, 37" vertical jump, 22 reps at 225 pounds), there is no question that Posluszny deserves to be a first round draft choice.

 

21. Denver - Jarvis Moss, DE, Florida: Pressuring the QB is something the Broncos need to do a better job of in 2007, and Moss qualifies as a potential sack artist.

 

22. Dallas - Robert Meachem, WR, Tennessee: Not only did Meachem produce big results as a junior in 2006 (71 catches for an 18.3 yard average and 11 TD's), but he also turned heads at the Combine with his 4.39 clocking at 6-2, 214 pounds. The addition of such a talented young wideout would be a huge benefit to the Cowboys.

 

23. Kansas City - Chris Houston, CB, Arkansas: This is a need area for the Chiefs and several CB's figure to be intriguing as this point on round one. That group includes Houston, Pitt's Darrelle Revis, Texas's Aaron Ross, and UNLV's Eric Wright. I gave the edge to Houston because of the fact he ran in the 4.3's at the Combine and proved to be one of the stronger players pound for pound in the draft (27 reps).

 

24. New England (from Seattle) - Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss: Production, production, production, that's what you harp on with Willis. This kid finished just about every game, including the Senior Bowl, with 13+ tackles. Then came the Combine Meeting, where he ran an amazing 4.51 at 242 pounds and also came through with a 39" vertical jump.

 

25. New York Jets - Darrelle Revis, CB, Pittsburgh: Good, solid football player with the size (5-11½, 205) you look for and a ton of athleticism. Had he produced as many big plays this past season as he did as a sophomore, you may have been looking at a top 15 pick.

 

26. Philadelphia - Steve Smith, WR, USC: Prior to the Combine Workout, I projected Smith as a mid second round draft choice. However, after posting a 40 time of 4.45, the days of viewing Smith as just a compimentary No. 2 wideout may have come to an end.

 

27. New Orleans - Aaron Ross, CB, Texas: Tough, aggressive football player who also brings excellent ball skills to the CB spot. He'd be a nice addition to the Saints deep patrol. If you are looking for a potential surprise pick in the later portion of round one, UNLV's talented CB Eric Wright could be the guy. The former USC Trojan ran in the 4.3's at the Combine and has a great deal of ability.

 

28. New England - Reggie Nelson, S, Florida: Nelson brings a great deal of versatility to the defensive secondary, as well as demonstrating in the SEC with the National Champion Gators that he is a proven play-maker. He can cover a lot of ground and will hit like you expect from a safety.

 

29. Baltimore - Joe Staley, OT, Central Michigan: The former TE displays incredible feet, athleticism, and agility while operating at the critical LT spot, bringing with him the upside potential you look for at this point in the late first round.

 

30. San Diego - Dwayne Bowe, WR, LSU: After the Senior Bowl practices, I really thought Bowe would hear his name called in the middle of the first round. While he seems to have lost a little momentum after running in the mid 4.5's to 4.60 at the Combine Workout, you have to remember that he checks in at 221 pounds. He also brings superlative natural pass receiving skills to the position. I'll give you a quick history lesson. Back in the 2001 NFL Draft, a WR with a similar scenario was the next-to-last pick in the first round and has turned out to be a quality performer at the pro level. The player I'm referring to is former Miami Hurricane Reggie Wayne, now a key entity on the Super Bowl champion Indianapolis Colts.

 

31. Chicago - Ben Grubbs OG Auburn: Offense figures to dicate the draft this year for the Bears. WR and TE are at the top of the need list, but adding a big time guard like Grubbs would significantly aid the likes of Cedric Benson and Rex Grossman. A WR to consider at this stage would be South Carolina's Sidney Rice. This is also the point in the draft where USC's highly regarded C-G Ryan Kalil could hear his name called, figuring as late first or very early second rounder.

 

32. Indianapolis - Justin Harrell, DT, Tennessee: Had it not been for a season-ending (torn biceps) injury during the second game of the 2006 campaign, Harrell may have established himself as Top 15 choice in round one. Over the first two weeks, prior to the injury, he was a dominating performer. Good fortune would continue for the Super Bowl champion Colts if Harrell falls in their lap as the first round comes to an end.

[Peter]

I wish that I had Mel's job.

[The Tomcat]

We need to trade down 5 spots and pick up another 3rd.

[Bill from NYC]

He has NE getting Willis at 24. IF he is correct, how good is a trade-down looking now?

[Cornerville]

I wish that I had Mel's job.

 

 

Excluding his out of date hair style...I agree

[The Tomcat]

He has NE getting Willis at 24. IF he is correct, how good is a trade-down looking now?

 

That equates to a mid 2nd round.

[marauderswr80]

He has NE getting Willis at 24. IF he is correct, how good is a trade-down looking now?

 

 

I just dont see Willis lasting that long in the draft...........

[Cornerville]

Anyone think that if the Skins are sitting there at #6 overall and by some miracle Peterson is available...anyone think marv makes the trade up to get him?

 

The more I think about Okoye, the more I like the idea of the Bills addressing the DT position...build the lines!!!

[The Tomcat]

I just dont see Willis lasting that long in the draft...........

 

 

I don't see that happening either but 5 spots might be likely....17 in rd 1...

[Bill from NYC]

That equates to a mid 2nd round.

 

Mr. Butler once said that he hated to trade up because teams that do get "raped." He was right imo.

For example, I think that going down 10 spots from #12 is worth more than a 2nd imo. We got a 2nd in 01 for moving from 14th to 21st.

 

Given the above, I did save a "draft value chart" and will look at it a bit closer.

[BB2004]

I like our pick and think it would be nice if it worked out that way.

[stuckincincy]

I wish that I had Mel's job.

 

Hair stylist?

[Mike formerly from Florida]

Anyone think that if the Skins are sitting there at #6 overall and by some miracle Peterson is available...anyone think marv makes the trade up to get him?

 

The more I think about Okoye, the more I like the idea of the Bills addressing the DT position...build the lines!!!

 

We are NOT drafting Okoye. He plays the same position as Triplett and McCargo.

[Peter]

Hair stylist?

 

No. Football fan.

[Gordio]

We need to trade down 5 spots and pick up another 3rd.

 

 

Not if the DT from Louisville is still on the board.

[obie_wan]

He has NE getting Willis at 24. IF he is correct, how good is a trade-down looking now?

 

 

Mel is a moron.

 

There is no way in hell that Beason who runs a 4.74 and is limited athletically will go before the more productive, faster and more athletic Willis.

[obie_wan]

Anyone think that if the Skins are sitting there at #6 overall and by some miracle Peterson is available...anyone think marv makes the trade up to get him?

 

The more I think about Okoye, the more I like the idea of the Bills addressing the DT position...build the lines!!!

 

 

NO

 

you don't waste extra picks on a RB, especially one with a history of injuries.

[obie_wan]

We are NOT drafting Okoye. He plays the same position as Triplett and McCargo.

 

 

This is false/

 

Typically teams play a 3 tech over the OG and a tech over the C.

 

HOwever, this is not gospel.

 

IN the old days of the Rams fearsome foursome and the Steel Curtain, The DTs lined up on the OGs.

 

There was no one on the C.

 

The Bills could use both 3 tech players at teh same time to give the OL a differernt look. The OL would have to deal with both DTs shooting the gaps to cause havoc in the backfield. This is probably the most effective way to disrupt Brady's quick passing game.

 

However, to make this effective, you need LBs who can read the gaps created by the DTs and move up to make tackles at the line of scrimmage (not 5 yards downfield.)

[Bill from NYC]

This is false/

 

Typically teams play a 3 tech over the OG and a tech over the C.

 

HOwever, this is not gospel.

 

IN the old days of the Rams fearsome foursome and the Steel Curtain, The DTs lined up on the OGs.

 

There was no one on the C.

 

This is not totally true. I can remember watching Joe Greene destroy centers. I also remember Kent Hull being manhandled by a pre-drugs Leon Lett.

[The Tomcat]

Mr. Butler once said that he hated to trade up because teams that do get "raped." He was right imo.

For example, I think that going down 10 spots from #12 is worth more than a 2nd imo. We got a 2nd in 01 for moving from 14th to 21st.

 

Given the above, I did save a "draft value chart" and will look at it a bit closer.

 

NOT GOSPEL!!

 

 

NFL Draft Value Chart

Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4 Round 5 Round 6 Round 7

1 3,000 33 580 65 265 97 112 129 43 161 27 193 14.2

2 2,600 34 560 66 260 98 108 130 42 162 26.6 194 13.8

3 2,200 35 550 67 255 99 104 131 41 163 26.2 195 13.4

4 1,800 36 540 68 250 100 100 132 40 164 25.8 196 13

5 1,700 37 530 69 245 101 96 133 39.5 165 25.4 197 12.6

6 1,600 38 520 70 240 102 92 134 39 166 25 198 12.2

7 1,500 39 510 71 235 103 88 135 38.5 167 24.6 199 11.8

8 1,400 40 500 72 230 104 86 136 38 168 24.2 200 11.4

9 1,350 41 490 73 225 105 84 137 37.5 169 23.8 201 11

10 1,300 42 480 74 220 106 82 138 37 170 23.4 202 10.6

11 1,250 43 470 75 215 107 80 139 36.5 171 23 203 10.2

12 1,200 44 460 76 210 108 78 140 36 172 22.6 204 9.8

13 1,150 45 450 77 205 109 76 141 35.5 173 22.2 205 9.4

14 1,100 46 440 78 200 110 74 142 35 174 21.8 206 9

15 1,050 47 430 79 195 111 72 143 34.5 175 21.4 207 8.6

16 1,000 48 420 80 190 112 70 144 34 176 21 208 8.2

17 950 49 410 81 185 113 68 145 33.5 177 20.6 209 7.8

18 900 50 400 82 180 114 66 146 33 178 20.2 210 7.4

19 875 51 390 83 175 115 64 147 32.6 179 19.8 211 7

20 850 52 380 84 170 116 62 148 32.2 180 19.4 212 6.6

21 800 53 370 85 165 117 60 149 31.8 181 19 213 6.2

22 780 54 360 86 160 118 58 150 31.4 182 18.6 214 5.8

23 760 55 350 87 155 119 56 151 31 183 18.2 215 5.4

24 740 56 340 88 150 120 54 152 30.6 184 17.8 216 5

25 720 57 330 89 145 121 52 153 30.2 185 17.4 217 4.6

26 700 58 320 90 140 122 50 154 29.8 186 17 218 4.2

27 680 59 310 91 136 123 49 155 29.4 187 16.6 219 3.8

28 660 60 300 92 132 124 48 156 29 188 16.2 220 3.4

29 640 61 292 93 128 125 47 157 28.6 189 15.8 221 3

30 620 62 284 94 124 126 46 158 28.2 190 15.4 222 2.6

31 600 63 276 95 120 127 45 159 27.8 191 15 223 2.3

32 590 64 270 96 116 128 44 160 27.4 192 14.6 224 2

 

5 spots in the first = high 3rd

[John from Riverside]

Based of that I abolutely would trade down......

[The Tomcat]

Based of that I abolutely would trade down......

 

Down 5 or 10/12....

 

I like the idea of 5 personally

[Ennjay]

"Branch has the edge at DT in terms of potential, but Okoye gets the nod when it comes to production."

 

 

This seems to be the exact opposite of everything else I've read. Has anyone else hear heard different?

[DrDawkinstein]

every mock i see that has Willis falling to the Pats makes me feel bad inside.

[Stevie Ray]

every mock i see that has Willis falling to the Pats makes me feel bad inside.

 

I would absolutely hate to see Willis in a Pats uniform. I think this kid is gonna be a good one and do not wish to see him there of all places. Would love to have him as our 1st rounder.

[obie_wan]

This is not totally true. I can remember watching Joe Greene destroy centers. I also remember Kent Hull being manhandled by a pre-drugs Leon Lett.

 

The point is that Okoye would fit on our DT rotation even if he is considered a 3 tech.

 

You obtain playmakers when available - the coaches can then design schemes to utilize them.

[Prognastic]

You should feel good seeing mocks that show the Pats taking Willis. You know they NEVER take a guy who they're "projected" to take. They're lucky to be in a position to take the best players available at 24 & 28 regardless of position.

[Shamrock]

I wish that I had Mel's job.

 

Remember, the Lions are one of the few teams that have never even been to a Super Bowl, let alone winning one. You think Mel? Wow, get back to me when a team wins a Super Bowl without getting to one.

[Hollywood Donahoe]

MOCK DRAFT: Mel Kiper's new First-Round Projection | March 13

 

24. New England (from Seattle) - Patrick Willis, LB, Ole Miss: Production, production, production, that's what you harp on with Willis. This kid finished just about every game, including the Senior Bowl, with 13+ tackles. Then came the Combine Meeting, where he ran an amazing 4.51 at 242 pounds and also came through with a 39" vertical jump.

 

28. New England - Reggie Nelson, S, Florida: Nelson brings a great deal of versatility to the defensive secondary, as well as demonstrating in the SEC with the National Champion Gators that he is a proven play-maker. He can cover a lot of ground and will hit like you expect from a safety.

 

If only...

[Oneonta Buffalo Fan]

He has NE getting Willis at 24. IF he is correct, how good is a trade-down looking now?

VERY GOOD!