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Would You Rather Go 8-8 With Holcomb


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How can we win 4 more games with a QB that can't throw more than 20 yards, and has all the arm strength of a rubber band?  If Holcomb is our starter, every defense will play  a shorter field because they know Holcomb can't throw that far, which of course will make running the ball that much harder.

 

I think your question should be 4-12 (or worse) with Holcomb or 8-8 (or better) with Losman!

 

PTR

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The way you do it is for the Bills O to work according to the plan Jauron and Fairchild seem to be putting together AND for the D to be the bulwark of this team's improved record by having the Tampa 2 work so that we keep games close, AND Booby April gets the same production from the ST he has the last two years.

 

It will be tough to make all of these ANDs work (and they ALL need to to have this team compete for a playoff slot) and even if they do all work this team will need the oddly shpaed ball to bounce the right way for us in order to really be competitive.

 

The Plan appears to be:

 

D-

 

Jauron has shown that he is a genius given things working the way he wants them work when he got NFL Coach of the Year honors a few years back. It MIGHT happen as the Tampa 2 version of the Cover 2 goes toward some of our stengths with a strong secondary being reinforced with draft IF Whitner signs.

 

NC and McGee should be great on the corners and TV despite his many years led the team in turnovers produced last year, As an older player he both has seen a lot of plays that should allow him to excel at the centerfielder duty he will be asked to do more of and with older players like TV what use to be nicks now become injuries but with the xonr blitz being abandoned he will be asked to tackle less so the game is coming toward his remaining skillset.

 

LB is only a question due to TKO's injury, but the pick-up of Watson gives us increased depth if he cannot plat and k=like TV, the Tampa 2 responsiblities call upon the MLB to cover more rather run stiop all the time. Some folks concerns about his coverage abilities seem more imbedded in his lack of a couple of inches compared to the LB norm, but his lengthy experience (which again is causing some to write him off due to age though his abiluity to easily lead the Bill's in tackle #s numbers show no drop-off. In addition to superior football knowledge which will help his reads (indicated by him being team D captain). AND he has a demonstrated constant motor and mobility (demonstrated by his leading the NFL in tackles credited over the last 5 years), AND he tracks balls in flight well and also ball handles them as well (as demonstrated by him logging a good record as the Bills short kickoff KR guy) our LBs should be fine.

 

The unclear link in us successfully using the Cover 2 is the DL, but the Bills picked up Triplett and McCargo to play a penetrating DT role and it may work on D.

 

ST

 

April led a group which has been ranked statistically the #1 ST in football two straight years. As Marv emphasizies ST heavily this unit has been strengthed with the Bills signing some vets with ST prowess and also drafting guys with ST in mind. Moorman is back and already looks good and Lindell really turned it around last season so it is not unreasonable to hope/expect this group to really help lead the team to some Ws..

 

O

 

The O effort seems to revolve around not the quality of the QB, but whether the team can successfully introduce the St. Louis scheme to the players and whether Farichild can call and design plays which get some initialseparation. If the O works as it likely is planned KH will not be throwing it over 20 yards more than a few times a game and when he does it will be to a receiver on a straight fly patten who is isolated in one on one coverage.

 

The plan should call for a bunch of 3 WR sets with Evans, Price and Parrish all showing their speed. If fairchild can in fact design plays that give the WRs quick separation through, fear of their speed backing coverage off or forcing opponents into zones and also crossing patterns and intricate picks we do not get called for Holcomb will have to merely read the D and throw it short looking for RAC.

 

Like any NFL QB he will have to air the ball out from time to time just to maintain the threat that he might do this, but though he cannot be expected to throw the ball downfield a lot with any accuracy, if the Bills show they may go long a couple of times early, the DBs will need to play back just in case. In fact, if the scheme is run well, KH will not even have to hit the receiver deep just present the threat.

 

More than how well the QB throws long, success will depend a lot on WM being used as a receiver which MM and TC did not do a lot last year at all. WM will not have to produce like Marshall Faulk, but if he is an adequate check down receiver, this will make like much easier for the WRs.

 

In addition to the WRs showings good speed (likely), AND Fairchild designing good routes (quite possible as he got schooled by Martz but he has not done this yet so it cannot be declared likely), ABD WM showing some receiving ability (also possible as he he showed adequate though rarely utilized hands in college). AND also the big wildcard will be that this OL needs to be productive.

 

I am confident that this year's likely OL starters (Gandy, Reyes, Fowler, Villarial and Peters) are gonna be better than last year's starters (Gandy, Anderson, Teague, Villarial and MW). Do you disagree? However, being better than last year's bunch is not saying much so the question is how good they will be.

 

I think they actually will be pretty good initially (despite some folks calling them mere rejects because I do not think they saw them or even looked at their records from last year it is clear Reyes was a solid starter on a productive OL for Carolina who lost his job this year to the young highly regarded Mathis whom apparently Carolina wanted to start last year, but he could not unseat Reyes. Fowler also took the starting job away from Withrow at MN and his rise coincided with a big Vike win streak that almost got them into the playoffs- he was not signed for the starter money the market apparently would give him as the Vikes were committed to multi-time Pro Bowler Birk who was IR'ed last year but now is back. I suspect this crew will get off to a good start.

 

However, the big OL question for the Bills is back-ups as players unfortunately getted nicked and have to sit. Outside of Preston behind the likely first to fall to injury Villarial, the Bills need to develop some credible back-up OL players or get very lucky.

 

A lof things have to work at the same time for the Bills team and O to be productive, and I doubt it all will work perfectly. However, QB is really the4th biggest wildcard in the deck for the Bills and simply is not likely to be the rate limiting factor on whether this team is good or not.

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I'd much rather go 4-12 with Losman, we know the mediocrity that is Kelly Holcomb, an 8-8 year will just prolong the inevitable. Jauron will be tempted to play older players longer rather than put in people like Whitner and Simpson. We will screw ourselves in draft position for no reason at all and leave ourselves picking in the 20's again when we really need at least one more top 10 pick in the fold. We need to know if we have a QB or not, the question will be answered by Losman or Nall not by Holcomb, we know what Holcomb is but the other two are question marks.

 

I guess the better question is how does going 8-8 help us? I'd have reather gone 4-12 last year, we would have D'Brickashaw Ferguson now, but we won a silly game that ended up meaning very little, even to the ppl who played in it and dropped ourselves from the 4th pick to the 8th.

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That's kind of a loaded question ......... 4 - 12 with Losman would indicate JP just doesn't have the talent to be an NFL QB .............. However 8 - 8 with Holcomb .... now that would be interesting ........ does anybody really REALLY think this team is going to finish any better than 8 - 8 no matter WHO the QB is???????? So I guess 8 - 8 would give us the QB of the future.

 

Best of both worlds would be if J.P. could give us an 8 - 8 ............ then I would consider his season a sucess, and the Bills well on their way of rebuilding the team.

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What do you think makes the most sense? I believe that Nall is not going to win this job so I pose this question for the other two. I would rather find out once and for all what this team has in Losman. Going 8-8 means absolutely nothing to me if that includes not making the playoffs.

 

What are your thoughts? This 4-12 stat does not suggest that Losman equals bad record because I think Losman has a chance to reach a respectable record. I just want to see who else (if anybody) believes that Holcomb just postpones any REAL success for the future of this team.

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I'm all about team and winning but we need to see what JP has or hasn't. Regardless of what his teammates may think, we need to find out now if he can cut it in this league.

 

We all know he's going to have his growing pains and it was very stupid of the previous regime to anoint him the starter w/o having proved anything and then yank him just 4 games in. You can't go to the playoffs and win the SB with a very green starting QB--it has never happened and it looks like it never will!

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Both scenarios very well could be a reach but I had to come up with these numbers to see where people stood on the subject. (Coasting with Holcomb and being middle of the road or letting it fly with Losman even if it means going down in flames.)

 

I would rather go down in flames and rid the team of this 2-3 headed experiment. Hopefully Losman comes out to shine....

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Ok, then let's use your numbers for the sake of conversation.

 

I guess the prevailing thought here is that if we go 4-12 with Losman, he will somehow, some day develop into a probowl qb, and the 4-12 would be JP, the Bills, and us fans "paying our dues" in a manner of speaking.

 

Conversely, I guess we are implying that 8-8 seems more possible with Holcomb at the helm, but he does not offer us the chance for greatness that Losman seems to. Perhaps this is true.

 

I personally would prefer to see JP start because he is younger, would seem to have an upside, and we paid a hefty price for him in terms of draft resources. Might as well give him another chance.

That said, I feel like my "dues" are paid up as a fan. Unless the losses were clearly not his fault, I would hope that a switch is made at qb before we are to lose 12 football games.

Perhaps a better debate would be as to just how long Bills Fans should be expected to wait for JP to develop into a good qb. One season? Two seasons?

What do you and others feel is a fair and reasonable amount of time to wait for Losman to be a good quarterback?

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4-12 with Losman so we could ditch the both of them after this year, get the #1 pick, draft Brady Quinn, and swoop over free agency spending money like we're George Steinbrener. Next year come back to go 12-4 and win it all in 2007-2008!!! Ahhhh, just wishful thinking.

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4-12 will not get you the top pick but who cares.

 

You really want to pay a guy like Quinn 60-65 million over 6 years, with 28-30 million guarenteed before he has played 1 NFL snap?

 

I never want a top 5 pick again. They get way too much money before they have pissed one ounce on an NFL field. The system is a total joke.

 

I have no problem with a free agent cashing in because they earned it on the field, these rookie deals suck because half end up busting out and it was wasted money.

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Ok, then let's use your numbers for the sake of conversation.

 

I guess the prevailing thought here is that if we go 4-12 with Losman, he will somehow, some day develop into a probowl qb, and the 4-12 would be JP, the Bills, and us fans "paying our dues" in a manner of speaking.\

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Actually, I don't think that's what anyone is saying. What everyone is saying is that if Losman is given a full year to start, and can do no better than 4-12, then we will know for sure that he is not the QB of our future. We can look for his replacement and move on.

 

But if Holcomb starts and goes 8-8, we still miss the playoffs, and we still have JP on the sideline with a big "what if" hanging over his forhead.

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Actually, I don't think that's what anyone is saying.  What everyone is saying is that if Losman is given a full year to start, and can do no better than 4-12, then we will know for sure that he is not the QB of our future.  We can look for his replacement and move on.

 

But if Holcomb starts  and goes 8-8, we still miss the playoffs, and we still have JP on the sideline with a big "what if" hanging over his forhead.

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So as a fan, you are willing to give him a full season, even if it results in 4-12? Nothing wrong with this mind you. I do however wonder if the coaches, teammates, and other fans will be as patient, although certainly many factors are involved.

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So as a fan, you are willing to give him a full season, even if it results in 4-12? Nothing wrong with this mind you. I do however wonder if the coaches, teammates, and other fans will be as patient, although certainly many factors are involved.

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I would be willing to give Losman the full year just to finally move on to the future (whoever that QB might be). I guess if Losman cannot beat out an average 10 year backup, than we are in a lot more trouble than expected. JP weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeere waaaaaaaaaaaaaaiting...........

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I'd rather go the full season with Losman so we can finally know where we stand for next season.

 

If it's a bad choice? Then I'll just drink more beer to ease the pain.

 

But I live in Dallas, so I've already become numb to all the negative comments. Another losing season won't hurt me.

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not a 360 ... that means no change of direction.

 

We need a 180 ... :D

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Really, if he does a 360, buy him a tutu!

 

I want the younger quarterback to take us to the Super Bowl and win.

 

It is unrealistic, but you asked what I wanted.

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Instead of trying to predict the season record based on Losman vs. Holcomb vs. Nall, do some analysis of the O-line. Then come up with a W-L scenario.

 

I don't have one in mind at the moment. But even QBs with supposed "weak" arms can pick apart a D with short/mid-range passes off play action if they have time to throw.

 

If Losman starts, we'll have part of the answer of what we need to do in the future. But you have to take a hard look at progress of the O-line at the end of the 2006 campaign and consider both factors together.

 

If Losman gets his confidence and gels along with the O-line, we could be seeing a wildcard slot in 2007.

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What do you and others feel is a fair and reasonable amount of time to wait for Losman to be a good quarterback?

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This coming season and if not, he goes somewhere else.

 

I'm not particularly pleased with this qb "competition" that's taking place. New coaches, new offensive system. And IMO, today's systems are tailored to the starting qb's particular talents. JP needs the reps now and in pre-season.

 

We must be decisive! :D

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We will screw ourselves in draft position for no reason at all and leave ourselves picking in the 20's again when we really need at least one more top 10 pick in the fold. 

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As seen this year, draft position means nothing to the Bills. They're gonna pick who they want when they want regardless of the gaping holes at certain positions.

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I would rather put a glowing hot poker in my eye than go 8-8 with Holcomb.  Holcomb is a mediocre known commodity while JP is a talent of unknown limits.  I'd rather go down swinging than hitting a slow roller to first.

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Exactly, Holcomb is mediocre at best. You can not run a full offence with his pop gun arm.

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