How to fix the Bills in 3 moves.....

[sven233]

I know there are a lot of problems with the Bills. I have been one of their biggest critics. HOWEVER, things could get better in a hurry and I will tell you how. Now, all of these things can be done this year with a little effort. If these three things happen, I can guarantee that the playoff push would be on next year.

 

1. This is the most important part of this whole plan. If this doesn't happen, well, the whle thing is out the window. In FA this year, the Bills must go out and sign Bentley from NO and Hutchinson from Seattle. I know, lots of money right there, but I definately see this possible with the room we will have under the cap. Mike Williams and Trey Teague will be gone and so will a few others which will free up even more money under the cap. And I think these contracts could be structured properly to fit in nicely with what we need to do.

 

2. Sign Hovan in FA as well. He proved this year that he can play. Maybe not a star, but would bring an immediate compliment to Sam Adams. Not only will this help the run defense immediately, but all of a sudden the pass rush will be better because of the 2 guys in the middle. This will also allow the defense to execute their scheme better because we all know that getting good pressure up the middle and taking the run away is the key to making this defense style go. Along with this, keeping Nate Clements would be a good idea. I know he hasn't had a good year at all, but he is still above average. The lack of pass rush this year and the fact we had to play 8 in the box to even contain the run hurt his play. Signing Hovan will fix this problem well enough and he should get back to being himself next year. Signing Clements will not be easy, but with the Franchise number coming down this year, that may be a possibility as well.

 

3. In the draft, you have to go with big people on both sides of the ball as well. O-Line and DT are definately importnat because you need depth at DT and I am not sure CV is good enough at RG. He has been banged up this year and he is just average as is. However, he will benefit greatly from having inside help at C with Bentley. Also, with Peters coming back at RT with the experience he has received this year, I think that will help CV as well. But you can never have too many good lineman. Also, even though Gandy has been healthy this year, you still may want to try and get better there as well. With that said, you need to go OT and OG withing the first 3 rounds. The other pick should be another solid run stuffer at DT.

 

So, here is what my O-Line will look like if they use this strategy:

 

LT - Gandy, (1st, 2nd, or 3rd round pick)

LG - Hutchinson (the best in the game, enough said)

C - Bentley (the best young C in the game...maybe the best C in the game period)

RG - Villerial (OK, not great, but definately good enough)

RT - Peters (I think will be a great player next year...been solid and will get better)

 

This team has definately not had a good O-Line in 10 years or more. I believe that this will not only help in pass protection, but finally we might get some push in the running game. I don't believe McGahee is as bad as everyone says he is. He has talent and I definately think his dancing problem comes straight from the fact that he is so used to getting hit as soon as he gets the ball that he almost does it instinctivly now to try and avoid the first hit, even if the defense isn't there. These 2 additions make this line better in so many ways.

 

The DL will look like this:

 

LDE - Kelsay (showing some improvement and will benefit from having help inside)

DT - Adams (despite what happened this year, still one of the best in the league)

DT - Hovan (solid...will help Adams out more than anything else)

RDE - Schobel (very good year....3rd in sacks and had best year of career....solid)

 

Having 1 more good DT in the moddle will help in so many ways. I have mentioned a lot of these earlier, but really, this will aloow the safety to back off and play back. This will help the corners out this year and not leave them in single coverage all the time. Also, this will help make teams more predictable because we won't be giving up a GAZZILLION rushing yards this year. This will allow the defense to get back to where it was last year and to put this year behind them. Amazing what a couple more big men will do for a defense....as long as they are good ones that is. Hovan is that.

 

 

So, with all that said, these are the moves that need to be made if you want to challenge next year. The new O-Line will help whoever the QB will be next year. Both QBs will be better with more than 2 seconds to throw and Willis will be back next year and finally realize that he will have some help. He won't hold out this year, but next year he will. He will play hard next year and with this O-Line, will have a big year. The new defense will get off the field more and that will give the Offense more chances. The Offense will be better and score more points and thus take pressure off the Defense.

 

I know this may be making it simpler than it is and I know there are more problems on this team than the ones I addressed, but I guarantee that if these moves are made, the other problems will not be quite as big as they were this year. Also, I do believe that with the other moves that are made this year with current players, that my strategey is definately possible and could change this team around overnight.

 

HAPPY NEW YEAR EVERYONE! 2006-2007 CAN BE BETTER! BILLEVE!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Fan in San Diego]

Brilliant ! These would be good moves. I would still like a better DE for additional DL pressure.

[Formerly Allan in MD]

What about cornerback if/when Clements leaves (even if he stays he's not shut-down)? Milloy gets beat easily these days; next year will likely be worse. Who is your quarterback? Tight en? Also, do Donohoe and Mularkey suddenly become geniuses? I'm not so sure.

 

Your points are well taken, and the Bills might possibly make the playoffs with your fixes, but how far are they realistically going to go without addressing these and possibly other needs?

[Buffalo Wing]

I know everyone is bunched in the panties about Steve Hutchinson...as well they should be...but do you really think that he will leave a Super Bowl caliber team and come here? The Seahawks have tied up monies recently to Matt Hasselbeck and Walter Jones, and will need to invest some big pesos in Shaun Alexander as well, but they will do everything possible to keep Hutch in the Northwest. Seattle is a perfect example of what to do - BUILD THE LINE! They know they have the 2nd best o-line in the NFL (next to Kansas City's line) and will not allow that line to be broken up.

[ans4e64]

wait, so you want us to sign nate clements, steve hutchinson, lecharles bentley, and chris hovan....... this isnt the new york yankees. i dont think we can do that and even if we could, where is the money going to come from to sign our top 10 draft pick? we have to reserve at least 5 million for the picks.

[dogbyte]

But there is no depth, so if there are injuries no replacements of quality. TOO MUCH MONEY tied up in few players

[colin]

for the people saying we can't sign those guys, do you know anything about player costs and the cap?

 

if so, please tell us how much we do/will have to spend and how much those players will cost.

 

thanks

[MDH]

for the people saying we can't sign those guys, do you know anything about player costs and the cap?

 

if so, please tell us how much we do/will have to spend and how much those players will cost.

 

thanks

546278[/snapback]

 

It's not only a matter of the cap (the cap can always be fudged to get guys under), it's a matter of RW springing for 2 of the best (if not THE best) OL in FA this year along with the best CB in FA. That just isn't going to happen, the Bills are not going to be able to outbid the rest of the league on the two best OL in FA.

[JoeF]

On D-

 

Adams wants to play rush tackle. Hovan is a rush tackle...Pat Williams strength was that he took pride in taking up two guys every play to free Fletch and TKO to make plays. We need another T like Pat Williams. Ryan Pickett with the extra weight will cost about the same as Hovan and probably be a better fit. Grady Jackson is older and probably has some physical issues because of his weight, but I also think he would be a better fit. If we can get another "double every play" DT in here--I think our LB corps as is will be superior...

 

I would franchise Clements and see what kind of offers you get for him. The franchise fee for a corner dropping to around $5.5 million is a huge strategic win for the Bills in this case. Let Clements's agent test the market under the franchise tag--come back with offers for trades and contracts that the Bills can ponder.

 

I still want a rush end to go with Kelsay and Schobel--there are several veterans and draftees to look at..I think we lose Denny in the free agent market--which to me is too bad...I think he has been steadily improving and hate to see him go.

 

On O

 

I know a lot of folks want to blow up the entire OL and start over. I still believe shoring up the C position will go a long way toward improving this line. I would lean toward Bentley--Also its somewhat easier for an interior OL with skill to make the College to pro adjustment than an exterior --so I would draft a stud G in the first three rounds who can also compete right away (there seem to be a plethora of those in the draft) and then rely on Gandy and Peters at T again but also draft a T in the first 3 rounds knowing that he will need a year to develop. Rip me for only wanting to make one immediate certain change--but I think this will make a huge difference--and spend some draft capital on the future.

 

Skill position wise...I would make Moulds a Bill for one more year...if we can get $1 million in cap savings from him by cutting his base the max and giving him additional money up front..do it. The guy still has skill.

 

We probably lose Josh Reed whose agent will go after a number 2 role somewhere else. Worst case if we lose both Reed and Moulds--there are plenty of veterans out on the Free Agent market this year--but we have to get something out of the diminutive one (#11) next year....

 

Specific to the draft...

 

I think we need:

 

OT, OG, DT, DE, TE, RB, WR, S, CB in some order...all positions can stand to have some competition--With obvious deference to the lines in the first two rounds--after that draft for value....WE NEED TO DRAFT FOR NEED THIS YEAR in the first two rounds....and that NEED is both lines..

[1gap2gap]

for the people saying we can't sign those guys, do you know anything about player costs and the cap?

 

if so, please tell us how much we do/will have to spend and how much those players will cost.

 

thanks

546278[/snapback]

 

I don't think it takes brains to understand that 1st - not eveybody on that list would even want to sign with us. 2nd - that it would be almost imposible cap wise and 3rd - not everybody in free agency signed by a team is successful with the new team that signs them. In fact getting better by free agency is as much of a crap shoot as the draft. History tells us that it does not work out. You have to coach better and draft better. It's up to the bulk of the players that are here now to play better and the coaches to coach better. A few free agent signings is not a bad idea and could help but you really have to pick the right guys.

 

Personally for me moving Gandy to LG, Petterson to LT and finding a RT in free agency or on the team would be better moves for the O-line then bringing in almost a whole new line. IMO

[crazyDingo]

Not bad ideas at all, but they depend on a lot falling our way. Nothing falls our way.

 

So my 3 fixes would be:

 

1. Fire Donahoe

2. Fire Mularkey

3. Fire Gray.

 

There. See? Simple fix and we're in the playoffs.

[Dan III]

Swap Hovan for Maake Kemoeatu and you might be right about playoffs...

[sven233]

Well I appreciate everyone's response. Now, I thought I would go about replying to some questions from you guys about my plan.

 

First off, I never said that this plan would be the be all and end all. I know this team has a lot more problems here than I stated before. What I did say however is that with these moves, we could without a doubt challenge for the PLAYOFFS. I didn't say the Superbowl here. Now, I know that the Superbowl is the goal, but remember, we haven't even been in the playoffs in 6 years! That would be a good start. Also, a point I did not bring up eallier is that our schedule next season is not that bad. I don't have the exact teams in front of me, but I know when I did look at it, the schedule was fairly easy (relatively speaking) so that will help us in a playoff push.

 

As for where the money is coming from. You guys all know that the cap can be fudged in many different ways (ie. Washington Redskins). Also, we are going to have quite a bit of money under the cap as it is.......Assuming Moulds is gone (or restructures), Teague, Williams, etc., that will even free up more money. I have heard estimates recently that put us as much at 13 million under the cap. That is pleanty of money to sign the 3 lineman I talked about, given they are structured properly. Also, the Rookie Pool should be OK as well. Remember there is a Rookie Cap as well and Rookie salaries do not hurt the cap much as it is. So, I can say with confidence that the cap won't be the concern.

 

However, the one concern is, and some of you mentioned it is that these players may not want to come here. That would be a problem, but really, that is out of my control. I am just saying that if these players WERE brought is, we would be very good. However, think about it for a second. If you were Bentley, you have been in NO for the last several years. They haven't won anyhting either. And, believe it or not, I think the Bills still have some respect for our tradition in the past. Maybe not as much as we used to, but I think it is still there. So, a guy like Bentley might come here. Hutchinson is a different issue. I don't know if it will be a matter of wanting to leave Seattle. He just might be the odd one out. With Jones, Hasselback, and NOW Alexander, they have a ton of money tied up as well. It might just be the fact that they can't sign him. We'll have to wait and see. And finally, it always comes down to $$$$$$$$$$$. Pay them and they will come. Enough said there.

 

As for Hovan, I understand that he is similar to Adams in ways, but I think Adams is more upset that he doesn't have any help right now more than what style DT he should be. I think he would be just as content clogging the line and letting Hovan play the PW type of role. Also, I am not saying that it has to be Hovan. I brought him up cause I think we could afford him. He didn't get a ton of money last year in FA and I know he will get a little more this year, but I don't think he would breat the bank. The other guys like Jackson would do the job too. Depends on the $ situation.

 

Clements would be good to Franchise. The tag isn't bad and if he gets traded, then we get some good stuff for him anyways. As for DE, you are saying that you need a better pass rusher....well, you could draft that or see if there is someone out there, but that is not a major concern of mine. Remember Schobel war like 3rd in the league this year in sacks. Now, I also believe that a better DT combination in the middle will help the ends we currently have greatly. Again, not a big concern.

 

Well, I hope this clears up my plan and position. There are a TON of holes on this team, but I really believe we can get passed some of them with these players. And I even think some of these holes go away with better players. Now, will this make us a legit Superbowl contender, probably not. Time will tell. A lot depends on a lot, but what I can say is that these moves would help us a lot. As for QB, well, who knows. Let them battle in camp and may the best man win. I hope it is JP. And I think he does have some good talent, but either way, whether it is JP or Holcolmb, both will be better behind a solid O-Line. You don't need to be a HOF'er to win the Superbowl. This line might make them good enough.

 

How do you eat an elephant?

 

One piece at a time. Let's get to the playoffs first.....someday we might take that last bite.

[JoeF]

How do you eat an elephant? 

 

One piece at a time.  Let's get to the playoffs first.....someday we might take that last bite.

546320[/snapback]

 

I think your outline has merit sven. I don't think there is much debate that both lines need an infusion of talent..its the how much and the who's that are the subject of message board fodder for all of us.

 

I sure wish we were spending our time talking about how the Bills would fare in the playoffs rather than speculating about next year...

[SHOUTBOX MONSTER!]

Swap Hovan for Maake Kemoeatu and you might be right about playoffs...

546307[/snapback]

 

Completely agree.

 

Hovan is 6'2'' 295.

Kemoeatu is 6'5'', 350.

 

Which do you think will be a better run stuffer and a suitable replacement for PW?

[Lofton80]

IMHO, Adams is done. He was brought in for the short term. He makes little effort. I do not see him on the roster next year.

[Greybeard]

It's not only a matter of the cap (the cap can always be fudged to get guys under), it's a matter of RW springing for 2 of the best

546283[/snapback]

 

Could you explain how this works. I have been under the impression you can only spend up to the cap. Therefore RW has nothing to do with it. Also, can you give an example of fudging the cap?

[MDH]

Could you explain how this works.  I have been under the impression you can only spend up to the cap.  Therefore RW has nothing to do with it.  Also, can you give an example of fudging the cap?

546350[/snapback]

 

It's a matter of mortgaging the future for the present. The way it is done is giving out huge signing bonuses to players and then signing them to long-term contracts that they have no intent of completing. The players get all the money up front in the bonus and it's spread out evenly over the entire contract for salary cap purposes. The team can basically stretch the deal out over any number of years they want to ensure that they can get the player under the cap...though it will cost them down the road when they cut the player and have to deal with the dead cap space.

 

For instance, let's say the going rate for a top flight DT is 5 million a year. The team could give a player a $20 million dollar signing bonus right off the bat and then sign the player to a contract that was for the vet minimum for the first 4 years. To keep is simple let's say the team signed the DT to a 10 year contract with 500k a year salary in each of the first four years then 5m a year salary in the last six years. The 20m signing bonus would be spread out evenly at 2m per year. The cap hit for the first four years would be 2.5m per year (2m from the bonus and 500k from the salary).

 

The way this contract is set up it makes it pretty obvious that the team is going to cut the player (or rework the contract) after year four. If they cut the player after four years they'd have the option of taking the full 10m cap hit (what is left of the bonus) in one year (if they cut him before June) or to spread it out over two years (if they cut him after June...I think it's the 6th). I'm no capoligist and it gets way more complicated than this, but this is the basic idea behind it.

 

It's not a bad idea if you think you're team is one player away from the SB and you need to do this in order to sign that player but otherwise it's generally not a great idea. TD is (rightly) not a guy that likes to work the cap this way so I don't see it happening.

[ATBNG]

I tend to disagree with the plan. I think that the past five years have shown that the Bills need an entirely new management style, team and philosophy. They are not one or two players away. For every move that seems to be going forward, it seems that the other teams in the league are making more progress. If they spend big money on the line, they will be lacking at other positions.

 

They've spent to the cap every year in the last five, and they've been only good enough to have one winning season. They also have had a tendency to come apart in big games (last year's Pitt game, the two big division road games this year). I think that demonstrates there is a fundamental flaw in their team development process, and not one or two misallocated resources in team design.

 

I think that Donahoe can evaluate talent on an elemental level. The play of the special teams (especially 2004) shows that he can find players that have superior athletic ability. The problem is that he has shown an inability to build a team that functions as a team. Is it that these athletic players don't have the right personalities? Is it that they are not "football" smart enough? Is it the coaching? Are they not motivated to the point where they need to be to be competitive on an NFL level?

 

To me, there seems to be evidence of a lack of communications between Donahoe and the two coaches he's had. I'm not saying that they don't speak to each other, but there has not been a meshing between the coaches brought in and the players brought in. It's partially system (claim you're a running team but then devote the first and second rounds of two consecutive drafts to two speed receivers and a mobile QB), and partially personality. Donahoe had more success in Pittsburgh because Cowher, for all of his other flaws, is an excellent motivator. Cowher can get the max out of a knucklehead like Joey Porter. Williams and Mularkey probably need more self motivated players.

 

The other issue with Donahoe is that I think he has gotten cocky at the wrong times. The Bledsoe trade and the Losman trade - he just gave up too much in both deals. Obviously, the book is not written on JP but he still paid too high a price to get him.

 

I don't think Mularkey is "at fault," but I also don't think that he brings enough to the table to make him a guy that Buffalo should keep around.

 

All the talk over and over on here about the offensive line. The Patriots line has been a bargain basement outfit from the beginning. They've lost Woody, Andruzzi, Koppen and Light - probably their four best offensive linemen since 2001. Yet, the line still manages to get the job done with an undrafted wrestler, two rookies, a guard playing center and a backup guard. They've used the exact opposite strategy of signing high priced free agents or spending big time draft picks at that position. The coaches know how to get these under the radar guys to operate as a unit. Throwing money at the problem isn't likely to be successful for the Bills.

 

For the Bills to be successful, they have to beat Belichick and Saban. Both guys have the type of involvement in personnel that allows them to get players that can succeed in their system. I think that after five years it is clear that the Donahoe model is never going to be able to compete with them.

[Greybeard]

It's a matter of mortgaging the future for the present.  The way it is done is giving out huge signing bonuses to players and then signing them to long-term contracts that they have no intent of completing.  The players get all the money up front in the bonus and it's spread out evenly over the entire contract for salary cap purposes.  The team can basically stretch the deal out over any number of years they want to ensure that they can get the player under the cap...though it will cost them down the road when they cut the player and have to deal with the dead cap space.

 

For instance, let's say the going rate for a top flight DT is 5 million a year.  The team could give a player a $20 million dollar signing bonus right off the bat and then sign the player to a contract that was for the vet minimum for the first 4 years.  To keep is simple let's say the team signed the DT to a 10 year contract with 500k a year salary in each of the first four years then 5m a year salary in the last six years.  The 20m signing bonus would be spread out evenly at 2m per year.  The cap hit for the first four years would be 2.5m per year (2m from the bonus and 500k from the salary).

 

The way this contract is set up it makes it pretty obvious that the team is going to cut the player (or rework the contract) after year four.  If they cut the player after four years they'd have the option of taking the full 10m cap hit (what is left of the bonus) in one year (if they cut him before June) or to spread it out over two years (if they cut him after June...I think it's the 6th).  I'm no capoligist and it gets way more complicated than this, but this is the basic idea behind it.

 

It's not a bad idea if you think you're team is one player away from the SB and you need to do this in order to sign that player but otherwise it's generally not a great idea.  TD is (rightly) not a guy that likes to work the cap this way so I don't see it happening.

546362[/snapback]

 

Thx for the reply. I was aware of the cap working that way but as you said in the first line, its mortgaging the future. Although, as you said, you can load up a little for the present by doing this.